HIBB another near-term buy targetBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on October 1, 2021 with a closing price of 70.74.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 71.52 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.025% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 7.296% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.856% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9 trading bars; half occur within 19 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 32 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
HIBB
Is B wave Complete? Is B wave complete for a higher Wave 2?
This is a stock I will keep an eye on for the following months.
HIBB on sale, 60% off!The sharp downtrend for HIBB cannot continue much longer. The current trend would hint at bankruptcy within 3 years, which is certainly not the case. My thinking is that the trend is about over and that we will start to see consolidation in the 12-26 range for a short time. That consolidation will move HIBB out of the downtrending channel and prepare it for a move back up to fair value, as marked by the upper rectangular area.
Following are the fair values for HIBB based on some valuation ratios I look at. These are calculated by multiplying the current stock price by the historical median value for the ratio divided by the current value. The values used can be obtained at GuruFocus.com.
P/E: 22.20*(18.75/13.03) = $31.95
P/S: 22.20*(1.25/0.48) = $57.81
Shiller P/E: 22.20*(27.84/9.69) = $63.78
P/B: 22.20*(3.93/1.33) = $65.60.
Averaging these gives a pretty conservative fair value of $54.78, a 147% profit compared to current prices. HIBB is extremely undervalued right now. It's not my favorite company, but they consistently increase revenue per share and book value per share year after year. HIBB remains a strong company, even with increasing competition from AMZN. I plan to accumulate shares of HIBB once the consolidation phase begins outside of the downtrend, probably early or mid-2019. This move may take several years to play out, so be ready to be patient. But I believe the wait is well worth it. As a quick note, the $55 valuation is only fair value. The price may go MUCH higher than fair value. But I don’t like to speculate much when trading, so once a stock returns to fair value, I’m out! I’ll leave the speculation after that to the gamblers.
HIBB -Upward breakout trade from $24.75 to $35.93 HIBB is running sharp upward in the short term & in the long run it is going up from its lower support of the long term downward channel formation. We think it has very good upsdie potential from here.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- January 11, 2018
Pattern/Why- Long term downward channel
Entry Target Criteria- Current price ($24.75)
Exit Target Criteria- $35.93
Stop Loss Criteria- $20.93
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
HIBB - Fallen angel formation Long from $15.20 to $17.93HIBB seems forming a nice fallen angel pattern. It formed a nice base & it has very strong moneyflow divergence. We think it can easily fill the gap up & run to $18 area.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- November 17, 2017
Pattern/Why- Fallen angel formation
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $15.20
Exit Target Criteria- $17.93
Stop Loss Criteria- $13.33
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
