Hiddenbearishdivergence
AUDJPY ForecastD1 - Price has reached an important resistance zone, we have a hidden bearish divergence followed by potential continuing divergence.
H4 - We have two key resistance zones that have formed based on the fibonacci expansion levels of the cycles we have.
Price has reached the first key resistance zone, bearish divergence.
H1 - The swing on the H1 chart is approximately at the round psychological 69.00 level.
If we get a valid breakout below uptrend line and the low at 69.02 we may then expect further continuation lower.
Signs for bulls? what about the confirmations then?Small TF small update:
*Do notice OBV very bad movement atm...
Weekly OBV also extreemly bad (As I showed on previous updates, it didn't change).
* Also we were rejected by the 200e on daily. passing above it will shoot it up...
* We are testing the hourly cloud too many times, it is also usually bad for the short term.
* And to add to it we have hidden bearish divergence:
I personally suspect sideways for a while to test boundaries before final decision to where we go.... good for scalps for next few days ;)
range: 7870-8170
or smaller better range: 8022-8170
*** There are many big signs as well for bullish market, but until we won't see confirmations that we actually started it up, we should still focus on shorting on the bigger picture.
Bitcoin might see some downside soonVery simple stuff here. The run from 7.5k all the way to 10.5k was certainly fun but it didn´t came without a cost. Looking at the RSI, we have a confirmed hidden bearish divergence on the 1D and today, assuming we close below 9300 or so, we are going to confirm it on a 2D time frame as well. Potential target range is between 8.4k to 8.8k, with special attention worth paying to the 0.618 retracement. The bulls absolutely must defend that level in order to keep the dream of a bull run alive.
You´re welcome to follow me on Twitter as well, where I regularly post charts, updates and the occasional shitposts.
twitter.com
Take care.
USDCHF Sell IdeaD1 - Price broke below the triangle pattern, we got pullbacks in the form of double wave, bearish divergence and then we got a trend line breakout.
H4 - Currently it looks like a pullback is happening, bearish hidden divergence.
H1 - Double wave up, bearish divergence.
The price has broken below the most recent trend line we may now start looking for sells with more bearish evidences.
USDCHF Sell IdeaW1 - Price broke below the uptrend line, currently it looks like the price is retesting the breakout.
D1 - Hidden bearish divergence.
H4 - Price has reached a critical zone formed by the fibo level of the cycle and the weekly uptrend line, bearish divergence.
We may now look for more evidences of bearish pressure in order to join the bears.
NZDCAD Sell IdeaW1 - The price is currently at the middle of the bearish channel after bouncing from the top.
D1 - Potential hidden bearish divergence.
H4 - Bearish divergence, if the price moves lower and breaks below the uptrend line, then it will be a good bearish sign.
We may then start looking for more bearish evidences in order to join the bears.
The bearish scenario and the bearish similaritiesThe bearish scenario and bearish similarities:
Most are long and expecting a move to $5k so it's always a good idea to cover the contrarian view and see if we can pick holes in either argument.
We retraced to around $3900 (not too far from the $3930 retracement target in my previous post) but it looks like we'll be retesting this uptrend support soon.
Looking at the weekly chart, it seems that after being rejected from EMA200, bitcoin might just be printing another triangle, similar to the one printed towards the end of 2018.
Then we were sandwiched between EMA50 and EMA100 and now we have the same dilemma between EMA200 and SMA200. We also have major trend line resistance from our ATH which we should be approaching sometime in April if this triangle resistance holds, otherwise sometime later in March if our triangle resistance lies a bit higher.
In 2018, we had a similar triangle setup starting from 30 April 2018. The downside target, based on the height of the triangle, was 42% from breakout and ended up reaching 43.5% when we dropped from $6150 to $3175 before retracing.
Interestingly, the 138.2 - 161.8 fib extension of the drop on 30 April 2018 (which forms the height of the triangle), is also roughly the channel range which we have been following since early December 2018 ($3195 - $4180).
If we have a repeat breakdown from the current triangle, we would have broken below our weekly SMA200 support and a close below it would be a first for bitcoin. I suspect we will retest SMA200 after breaking down and the drop will happen from that ATH trendline resistance.
Target based on the height of the triangle is 29% and the same 138.2 - 161.8 fib extension would provide a new channel range between $2330 and $2630, potentially until we meet that trend resistance again, where we either breakout or breakdown again sometime in August 2019.
We have hidden bearish divergence on stochrsi (which is also venturing into oversold territory), and by comparing volume profiles, we can see that volume has been gradually decreasing, similar to 2018 just before the drop. This is just an alternative scenario seeing as we might still be in wave 4, but we'll know as we approach that triangle apex.
Good luck and happy trading!
The wave 4 scenario to $5k first (if this isn't wave 4, we might still be completing wave 3):
NZDCHF Sell IdeaD1 - Price is nearing the critical zone formed by the two trend lines and a strong resistance zone. Hidden bearish divergence.
H4 - Price is nearing the critical zone formed by the fibo levels of the cycles.
Once the price reaches this zone, we may then look for evidences of bearish pressure and then start looking for sells.
NZDJPY Sell IdeaH4 - Head and shoulders pattern, hidden bearish divergence.
Price did break and close below the neck line, validating this head and shoulders pattern.
H1 - Price created double wave and it has now reached the 61.8 fibo level.
Bearish divergence forming, once the bearish divergence completes itself, we may then start looking for sells with more bearish evidences.
The target for this sell setup would be the duplication from the head towards the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern.
Bitcoin revised target: $3120I just realised that the move from the $4529 high on 24 November to the $3657.60 low yesterday was met with a retracement to above the 68.1 fib yesterday after reaching my $4200 target. This should provide enough momentum for a continuation of the downtrend move to at least the 161.80 fib retracement level (from the $4529 high) which sets my revised target to $3120 so thought I'd rather just create a new post
If the swing low touches the larger downtrend support, hopefully we get a candle body close back above the pitchfork support to keep within market structure and hopefully we have reversal from there.
Not much happening from the alts besides bchsv shenanigans and volume hasn't showed up for the reversal party yet. We also still have hidden bearish divergence so looking for a wave down from here.
Previous chart predicting the $4200:
Previous post predicting the $3660 entry and $4k target:
AUDCAD Sell IdeaW1 - Price reached the downtrend line, if we didn’t get a valid breakout here we may then expect the price to respect this trend line again and move lower.
We have a good resistance zone and potential hidden bearish divergence forming.
H4 - We may now expect one more push higher from the current zone towards the critical zone, we may then start looking for sells with bearish evidences.
Potential bearish divergence forming at the moment.
EURAUD Sell IdeaH4 - Two critical zones, price has reached the first critical zone, hidden bearish divergence.
if the price holds in this zone look for bearish evidences and then we may start looking for sells.
Alternatively if the price breaks above this zone, moves higher and reaches the second critical zone, we may then start looking for sells from the second critical zone with bearish evidences.
Invalidation: If the price breaks and holds above the invalidation level (marked in green), then this setup will be invalidated (false breaks can be neglected).