Hidden Bullish RSI Divergence
Bitcoin, Triangles, a flagpole, and Stock to flowTLDR
Don't overthink things. Stock to flow gives you a average price to target, and triangles are easy to spot and trade for targeting. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish.
Introduction
One of the most important things I have picked up on my relatively short trading career (about 5 years) is to have faith in the long term trading patterns. Long term trading patterns can help calm your mind and help you 360 degree set a trade with entries and stops and take profits that you can just fire and forget until your alerts tell you have taken profit or been stopped out. Due to the learning curve a lot of my technical analysis was better than my ability to hold a trade through without removing my stops, taking profits early, adding to my position when I should have been closing, so forth and so on.
So this post will deal with the humble triangle
Analysis
The current patterns of interest are the purple symmetrical triangle which is occurring at the support of the orange ascending triangle. Triangles in themselves are one of the easiest patterns to recognize but some of the worst when it comes to full performance to target, throwbacks, and fakeouts. So, in general, the larger the pattern, the better, the more divergences you have to back up your bullish or bearish bias the better, and the clearer the fundamental case, the better.
To back up our humble triangle we have hidden bullish divergence on the Stochastic and the RSI. Very simple and powerful indicators when used on the weekly timeframe to verify patterns.
To further support our bullish bias is the stock to flow, which has acted as a leading indicator for bitcoins average price for the whole time the indicator has been in play after its creation.
Targeting
There are several ways to do target setting on a triangle. The main one would be to take the height of the uptrend, clone it, then move it to the point of break out. Now, with triangles being one of the worst with reaching full target that is perhaps not the best way to go about things unless you are very good with training your stops.
As the chart below shows with the blue triangle, taking a high and low fib retracement and looking at the positive extensions can do a fairly good job of predicting local highs. Both the 1.414 and 1.618 were areas where price retraced. Going forward off of that draw, a pause at the 2 and 2.618 levels would be very predictable, reliable and technical.
The chart below shows two different set of fibs. The bold black fibs are drawn off the ascending triangle and the dark purple fibs are based off of a fib extension treating the move as a flagpole and continuation pattern, like an Elliot wave 1 and 2. Where it appears both fibs are in agreement is an area we would suspect to see a stall with a future continuation pattern to develop.
Fundamental Analysis
This is a hypothesis I don't have time to fully flesh out here, but for a long time people have been hoping for rotation. A common rotation people hope to play is the roation out of equities into commodities. That was a good play in the early 2000 and many people are hoping for it to be a good play again. Now, I am hoping for a great rotation this time around out of equites and into crypto instead of commodities.
And I think the charts support my notion of money rotating out of equities into crypto.
Conclusion
The stops are easy enough to set for even a new trader that has swung by investopedia.com or Bulkowski's thepatternsite.com and read the basic articles on triangles and flagpoles. The rotation thesis is likewise easy to understand, even if you don't agree with it, as is the concept behind the stock to flow model, which I did not dive into. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish.
BTC Showing Hidden Bullish Divergence at a Potential SupportBTC is currently at a Weekly Support/Resistance Level that goes back to January of 2021 and is hinting towards some RSI Hidden Bullish Divergence on the Daily. If BTC can hold this level of $38,220 we could see it come back up to challenge the More Major Resistance levels above up at around the upper 40-50k ranges if it fails to hold $38,220 then we will likely go down the the lower 30k ranges or worse. I believe these next couple weeks will be the deciding weeks of rather or not the BTC Uptrend Continues or we Fail and get a Major Pullback.
$BTC - #BITCOIN NEEDS TO BREAKOUT!BTC is approaching the resistance trendline of the falling wedge which formed on the 4h timeframe and the ichimoku cloud which is just above the current price
if we see a good fix above the ichi cloud and above the resistance (around 41k) in the next 1 or 2 4h candles, given the recent bullish rsi divergence, we can expect some more upside from the big boy Bitcoin
let's hope this fixes above these levels and lets our altcoins get some fat gains!
let me know what you think about this in the comments!
$SRM - falling wedge + rsi bullish divergenceSRM printed a bullish rsi divergence on 4h timeframe
I'm waiting for a breakout from the falling wedge pattern to enter a LONG trade targeting at least a 8/9% gain
what do yall think about this one?
Thu 14th Apr 2022 CAD/CHF Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a CAD/CHF Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Wed 13th Apr 2022 XAU/USD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a XAU/USD (Gold) Buy. My previous Sell was stopped out yesterday for an overall small profit, and there is still a previous partial Buy trade in play. Looking okay here so far. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
SLP Daily TF TASLP right now has dipped just above 0.0155. This dip has created a tight hidden bullish divergence in the daily TF. We might bounce from this level and most likely hit 0.0293 and 0.0373. A falling wedge pattern is also present in the daily TF, once we retest the resistance which is around 0.0258 and we get a candle close above it, SLP will most like go back to the previous high. A possible fakeout could occur around that level but if that happens, we will dip to around 0.0184 and from there we will most likely retest the resistance again.
Tue 12th Apr 2022 XAG/USD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a XAG/USD (Silver) Buy. Nicely supported with hidden bullish divergence. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Bitcoin BTC short-term view - combination of divergencesBitcoin BTC short-term view - combination of divergences
regular bullish divergence possible (green dot line)
hidden bullish divergence possible (blue dot line)
Looking all still bullish for me - what about you?
Drop me a nice comment if you'd like me to analyze any other cryptocurrency.
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Weekly Double Bottom With Class C Bullish DivergenceWe have Class C Hidden Bullish Divergence on the RSI and Class C Bullish Divergence on the MACD along with a Weekly Bullish Crossing. We also have a Bullish Shark on the weekly that could put us on the path to rallying to the PCZ of a Bearish Shark at the 0.886-1.13
We also have a Bullish Gartley that can be seen on the Daily timeframe as shown on this chart from awhile ago that we may be making a type 2 confirmation on:
SLP BIG SIGNALSDue to the recent news, the Ronin ecosystem was hacked. Lots of people got scared which resulted a dump in most coins like AXS, RON, and SLP. SLP went down to about 16% because of the FUD. Focusing in the chart, signals are getting stronger and stronger. The hidden bullish divergence we have is still intact, the longer it stays that way the bigger the pump once the divergence plays out. We have a big bullish butterfly pattern and a double bottom appearing in the 1H TF. If the RSI breaks the resistance which is the black line, we will go up. We could reach levels: 0.0226, 0.0229, 0.0238 , and most likely higher once Origin comes out. If Sky Mavis continues to release the alpha test for Origin despite the hacking that happened, we will pump big. This is a good opportunity for them to release Origin. Big reversal will come anytime soon.
SLP DivergencesWe have a hidden bearish divergence in the 1H TF. We might dip back to 0.0192 and from there we will bounce back to 0.0201. From a bigger perspective we have a hidden bullish divergence growing stronger and stronger. After the small dip we might go back to 0.0216 and if the candle closes above 0.0216, SLP will go back to 0.0238 and possibly higher up to 0.0252 and 0.0280.