POSSIBLE 4:1 RISK/REWARD ON AUDCADI had this currency pair on my watch list for this week after analysing the WEEKLY chart, and whilst looking through the DAILY time frame I spotted a potential long trade.
I spotted a pattern I have just started to test out, you have 3 bars involved. In this instance we see a good pullback to previous structure, the first bar looks like a potential low test bar, then the bar after it is a high test bar but the interesting thing about it, the second bar fills the rest of the low test bar body. The third bar then has to either be a low test buyer bar, or an engulfing buyer bar.
I will make sure at 10pm tonight to check that this bar finishes as an engulfing buyer bar.
Couple of details to add, I currently have to trades open on this currency pair only risking 1% each trade. I have my 1:1 target where the first blue line is, my second target is the 2nd blue line beyond the first which price has previously been before, making the trade a potential 4:1.
Side Note- These are all my opinions, please do not take my advice as the be all and end all, I am an amateur FOREX trader trying to learn about the markets.
High-test-bar
Range bound based short set up on EUR/GBPEUR/GBP has been in a range since March 2015. Another retest of ~0.7400 at the top of the range and a high test close with oscillator bearish divergence offers a short position in the ranging pattern possibly reaching the bottom of the range at ~0.7000.
entry - below low of high test bar
stop loss - above high of high test bar
target - bottom of the range/support at ~0.7000
USD/SGD bearish divergenceUSD/SGD exhibits signs of bearish oscillator divergence as confirmed between price action and the Stochastic and RSI indicators. Price closes the day with a high test bar below a level where resistance is present.
entry - below low of high test bar
stop loss - above high of high test bar
target - previous low
Short KiwiReasons to short USD/NZD:
- high test bar close
- 20 ema rejection and close below
- resistance (~6700)
- downward trend line rejection (third bounce)
- 0.786 Fibonacci level rejection and close below
- Stochastic and RSI hidden bearish divergence
entry - below low of high test bar
stop loss - above high of high test bar
target - previous swing low or lower
Divergence, again, on USD/CADAlthough in a healthy uptrend, USDCAD has run into resistance at ~1.3070 which happens to be a price level on the weekly chart that has previously been tested (as support in April 2004 and resistance in March 2009). Price closed below this level on Friday as a high test bar. Coupled with bearish divergence on the Stochastic and RSI indicator a price action behaviour is suggestive of bearish sentiment. Judging by the optimistic Fed outlook to raise interest rates, and positive expectation from the US economy from improving economic data, a stronger US Dollar is likely to continue. The following short setup banks on a technical perspective to take advantage of a sell signal; potentially a temporary run.
entry - below low of high test bar
stop loss - above high of high test bar
target - previous level at ~1.2771