#bitcoin - To Be Or Not To Be?Bitcoin is trying hard to attack this higher-high resistance, it´s a fight worth some popcorn and beer ... or so. Don´t get too excited it´s NOT the time to buy right now, in case you are already long, watch your stop losses. I know some people say this was the last time we have seen $10k, I am not there yet.
Neru
Higherhigh
EURUSD long reentryI got in this trade too early last week and NFP took me out. Original analysis is on my page but I will be looking to reenter this pair with DXY showing signs of weakness and EUR showing strength. Before entering this trade I need price to break and retest 1.1270 and the TL before looking to go long for 160 pips risking only 40. My analysis tells me price is going to create a new higher high at around 1.1450.
forexTrdr GBPAUD - MULTIPLE TAPS ON ASCENDING TRENDLINE HIGHERMorning traders
We have a clean simple trade setup on long British Pound versus Australian dollar with an ascending trendline holding after multiple taps since the start of July following a Bullish Engulfing line on the daily at end of month.
Additionally we have an ascending support on RSI and a crossover on Stochastics pointing to the support line once again holding and the pattern continuing towards high 1.80 area as the higher high and higher low pattern continues.
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BTC Update! Bulls stay in control!
Not a ton to update here. We saw further continuation last night as we were hoping for to keep bulls happy. Ideally want to see bulls maintain 12 EMA support on daily and really even on 4 hour chart if possible. Bulls got above and stayed above 12 EMA yesterday on 4 hour chart with a test of support down at it today. Resistance from overnight is now up at $12,829 and $12,105 support on 4 hour chart. Daily chart has plenty of breathing room currently with low to hold still down at $10,761. Measured move on the sloppy inverse head and shoulders I had been watching a few days ago would give bulls a move up towards about $14,100. This would be ideal but definitely need to see more of a volume spike to start making that push.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTC Update! Bulls get their breakout! Can they follow through?Last chart I was watching the potential of an inverse head and shoulders on 4 hour chart and expecting a break by today if the bulls were going to make it happen. Pattern didn't play out perfectly as it drug out a bit sideways but the bulls finally got some volume and their next leg up. So checking back in on daily chart here, we have our higher low at $10,761 established and now a higher high compared to our high to beat which was $12,064. So bulls have regained short term control here and seeking further follow through. I remain comfortably in my latest positions and would consider scaling out a small portion if bulls give another leg up tonight or tomorrow but overall am happy with these buys and considering a longer term swing position for them. But lets be patient, see what this week brings and if bulls can get further follow through and start to push back up towards our high of 2019 and get us over $14k!
Congrats to the bulls as this pullback from the high certainly required some patience to re-establish trade positions but overall we got what we have been seeking the past several charts.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTC Update! Bulls show back up!Yesterdays chart I discussed multiple things of interest to me. Mainly we were watching the slow grind of bulls setting lower highs and lower lows on 4 hour to slowly drag price lower. As I was typing up yesterdays chart was when the bulls were showing some life and trying to shift that 4 hour trend back into the bulls favor. I discussed the low of $9651 we set which was a 30% pullback and loving if that would hold for the low and was seeking bulls to change the 4 hour chart to higher lows and higher highs to have me personally back interested in trades. Also was watching for 12 EMA on daily to see if it could now act as resistance. We saw the close of yesterdays daily candle get rejected at the 12 EMA but only for a brief period. Within 2 hours of this we saw a short 3% pullback and then the bulls were off again. Overall we now have seen a 30% pullback from $13868 high down to $9651 and then a 20% bounce back up to $11576. I have personally re-entered a partial position off two separate areas. Pullback on the rejection from 12 EMA on daily which unfortunately only filled one of my buys due to the small pullback. And my second entry this morning when we pullback to just under $11k. I have more cash aside to buy for a further pullback here if needed.
Ideal scenario from here since the bulls have set a higher high on 4 hour chart is a higher low to come in compared to $9651 and then higher high again for 4 hour. This would shift our trend back to fully favoring the bulls and can start the climb back towards $14k. US Holiday tomorrow so stock markets will be closed and shortened day today. Will see what that means for crypto market but I do expect us to trade within this range of $9651 and $13868 for multiple days now.
I do believe the bounce off $9651 was significant enough to say that is our bottom of this pullback but need a higher low and then higher high from 4 hour chart to confirm. Our bounce up to $11576 this morning would be perfectly fine to have that be our short term high of bounce and a healthy pullback just eyeballing the chart is anywhere from $10,500-11k in my opinion. Thus far we have dipped just under $11k but would be fine with a slightly lower pullback to fill last of my orders for this trade. Would also allow bulls to establish a nice healthy support level just below and above $10k. Sorry for long write up, fairly lengthy day trying to set up trade positions last night and early this morning.
Just My 2 Sats!
CTL - LongIn w/ small share size. Beginning a new trend? Nice 20 EMA slope. Decent R/R considering 200 MA as overhead ceiling.
USDCHF bull push swing tradeUSD currencies have been making significant moves across the board for the past few weeks. The USD strength of last week has technical indicators on reversals this week.
This buy stop is placed about the last high of the bullish breakout (retracement entry was missed so wider stop necessary, adjust lot size for your appropriate risk threshold).
ANticipating bullish momentum to the daily trend line drawn in red.
Potential trade setup: GBP/JPY analysisprice is testing the 137.00 4HR intraday area of resistance created by previous swing high if this area is sustained, seen by the spinning top which was formed on the 1Hr candle, we could pull back and retest the Weekly trendline, this is also in confluence with the 4hr trendline acting as support, then we can expect a more imminent drive towards the 138.00 key level.
DXY - Further Upside Following FOMC ? Looking at the fundamentals this week, we have the CPI data as well as the Core CPI data being released on Wednesday with positive forecasts as well as the FOMC Meeting Minutes later that evening. We then have news affecting a variety of currency pairs as we prepare for the OPEC Meetings, otherwise known as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This group is responsible for 40% of the worlds oil supply which is a substantial % holding, so we can expect major volatility, CAD of course is the most effected pair correlating with Crude Oil. As well as this overall news occurring in the world, we have the PPI data release on Thursday with another positive forecasting.
Jumping to technicals and we are still in this ascending channel that I have shown in a prior article, however, looking at a more refined channel ( this isn't hi-lighted on the chart ), but if you draw out another ascending trend line from the higher wick of the 9th of October in line with the higher wick of the 2nd of January, 15th of February and extended into the future, we can see smaller refined ranging price channel.
Looking at this channel, as well as the monthly key level, we can see we are running out of steam and I believe we can see a pullback before going long on this DXY. The 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci level is hi-lighted in purple on the chart as well as the 71% Fibonacci level is laying on the weekly key level. We had a lower low prior and if price forms a lower high at this current price, we should be set to go short, HOWEVER, we have many significant higher low swing points and thus, I don't see structure as broken just yet.
We also have a new potential Head & Shoulder pattern which will confirm price retracing and falling to the downside to test the weekly key level of 96.25 before going long. With this in mind, Gold should push up, allowing our targets of 1304 being met and a potential reversal/short I anticipate. My bias for the year has been bearish for Gold and I still predict a large downside move to 1260 price region. So this can set us up for a high R/R setup. Drawing a counter trend line from the head to shoulder, we have a 3 anchored wicks showing some favourable downside potential.
I have a current neutral standpoint on this Dollar Index, but I expect price to fall before a continuation to the upside. As always, take risk/money management into consideration and follow these news events as volatility is expected and we can definitely capitalise on the volume around these news events.
Bitcoin Freight Trains Through Major Resistance Levels.Bitcoin update: After months of grind, the range resistance has finally been taken out in a spectacular short squeeze. Andrew described the signs that were leading up to this 1000 point move in 30 minutes in one of his recent articles about the coin float quietly being removed from this market. Coupled with a shrinking float, there are the participants who insist on shorting this market with a ton of leverage which builds up potential buying pressure, very similar to shaking a soda can before opening it. Now that Bitcoin has caught everyone's attention, it is time to put this move into perspective in order to better capitalize on the coming of a more supportive environment.
My recent articles for weeks have been talking about two scenarios: 1) retrace to the 3500 area OR 2) Break out and look for momentum continuation. We don't pretend like the marketers do, instead we follow best practices and WAIT for the market to choose, and boy did it choose. The 4K resistance area was cleared, and so was the 4500 area bearish trend resistance, and even the 5K psychological resistance all in about 30 minutes. Now that's decisive confirmation.
Based on our strategy, this market is no longer range bound and is NOW bullish. As for swing trades, we look for momentum continuation patterns to get long. This means we now WAIT for price to retrace to the 4300 or 4150 areas which are the old resistance / new support levels in play.
As far as profit targets, this move highlights the 5K psychological resistance which price retreated from, AND the 5245 to 5812 resistance zone (.618 area relative to the 6K high). Just like the 4150 area used to be, these new levels are where we will aim to lock in profits and measure reward/risk from after a new swing trade signal appears.
This surprise move also reinforces a very important lesson that many new traders completely miss. There is very little you can do to catch a 1000 point move in 30 minutes, EVEN if you are watching it unfold. It also looks easy after the fact, but anyone that has more than a couple of years of experience can tell you otherwise. This is why it is so important to employ MULTIPLE strategies. We don't just swing trade, because WE KNOW the limitations, we also carry inventory and have carefully cost averaged into a position with a cost basis of around 4300. All while being criticized and ridiculed when Bitcoin was pushing lows. Our performance record speaks for itself, and it has less to do with reading charts and MORE to do with patience.
In summary, after a long and tedious grind, Bitcoin has broken out of it range bound situation and is poised to usher in the next bull market. We don't get excited or emotional OR buy more at the highs. We continue to do what we have been doing the whole time: focusing on higher probability setups rather than HOPING FOR HOME RUNS. While the gamblers were getting faked out or squeezed, we waited patiently for the market to provide clarity. Here it is, and we have a healthy capital base to work from.
ENLC- Alligator opening his mouth to swallow little fishesLONG idea. Quiet trend up. Stop = $11.74
In at $12.48
Bitcoin: 495 Pts After 14 Day Swing Trade. Bitcoin update: Our second target of 4120 was reached today locking in a 495 pt gain on the second half of a position of a swing trade idea that we shared with our followers on February 9th. Throughout the entire management period, we were very clear in our emails and chat room posts that we had no intention of exiting the trade early, as long as the market cooperated. And it was all based on probabilities and price action. Nothing else.
Taking out the 4K resistance provides further confirmation that this space is recovering. The price structure since the 3150 area lows has been increasingly supportive with the establishment of higher lows and shallow retrace periods. Like I wrote in my previous Bitcoin analysis: higher lows often lead to higher highs. There is no need to over complicate this.
We continue to point out that until price takes out the 4600 area resistance, we will stay cautiously optimistic. This means as structure improves, we recognize that the broader trend is more neutral than bullish. A retrace back to the 3600 to 3700 area is very reasonable, especially now that price has reached the 4K psychological resistance area.
The most challenging aspect of this trade (which we will cover in our webinar) was holding through the noise around the high 3800s. There were moments when price action appeared to be likely to retrace, especially with the appearance of a bearish pin bar. Two things kept us in the trade: we had exited HALF of our position at 3825 which gave us MORE flexibility and confidence to hold since our risk was reduced, and second, price action NEVER generated a clear sell signal. Usually if a market is going to sell off, it sells off fast, it does not linger for too long.
In summary, NOW is NOT the time to be buying, it is a time to be locking in profits. I can’t iterate enough how important using predetermined profit targets are. And more importantly knowing how to recognize and adjust when the market negates your original trade premise. Simplicity and sticking to best practices is what helped us minimize our losses, even though we were constantly being criticized for staying on the sidelines more often than not. We are now in a position to fully capitalize on the HIGHER probability environment that is developing, while others will have to expend their energy and resources just to get back to break even. It is the lack of patience and conviction that ruin accounts more than lack of ability. And these traits come by emotional intelligence and experience, not from lines on a chart (or the RSI).