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Higherhigh

BTCUSD: Strong Close Can Lead To 14K Push?BTCUSD update: Higher high takes out bearish trend line as anticipated. With the 9890 to 10836 minor resistance cleared and bullish trend line still intact, the next resistance area that I am looking for is the 13012 to 14889 zone. At the same time, I am still open to locking in 15% of my position if price action presents a reversal signal in the current price location. For those who have been following this position trade, my average price is 10020. The swing trade call that I made at 8854 paid an 1800 point profit (if you sold at 10500) and IF you held onto some as I suggested, you are riding a winner. The main premise behind the position trade was the magnitude of the support zone that the market reacted to which was the 8171 to 4983 area (.618 relative to entire bullish structure). And consistent with this premise, price has cleared the minor resistance zone of 9890 to 10836 (.618 area of recent bearish structure). The next area to consider is the 13012 to 14889 resistance zone (.618 relative to entire bearish structure). The bearish trend line break around the 11400 area is a significant bullish sign. It serves as evidence that the bearish momentum that took this market to 6K is no longer in effect. This does not mean the market won't retrace though. In this scenario, I would expect support levels to offer a better chance of holding, rather than this market testing new lows. Keep in mind, price has not cleared a small reversal zone that is just above the most recent minor peak. IF a bearish candle formation appears at the current level, that would signal a failed high and more than likely lead to a retrace. On the other hand if there is a strong close, then it is reasonable to expect bullish momentum to carry price into the higher resistance zone over the next few days. In the failed high situation, I am looking to sell 15% of my position, otherwise I am holding for the 13 to 14Ks. Letting a winner run is a best practice and requires the flexibility to adjust if the market presents a less favorable sign. Part of my plan was to see how price behaves on the break of the trend line. Any trouble, I will lock in some profit and reduce risk, otherwise hold. I may not be able to update this post with timely order information so it is not wise to depend on me for these types of decisions. I am telling you my plan, and you must have the ability to make the judgement on your own whether to lock in or hold. In summary, one of the best lessons you can take away from this trade is this: To benefit from a broader move, you must be able to see the opportunity before it becomes obvious to the herd. If you find yourself confused because of conflicting information the whole way up, it is because you lack your own perspective and are missing a process to evaluate market information effectively. This will especially be the case if you are a hyper consumer of internet news which only serves to benefit marketers. All financial markets, especially this one, are environments that flow with uncertainty at all times. Price action can help us get a sense of how the crowd is likely to react, but the key to benefiting from this type of evaluation is also having the mental flexibility to adjust if your scenario is negated. There is no certainty, only probability. Our goal is to find ways to stack probabilities in our favor enough to justify taking the risk and usually when these opportunities are present, they are not obvious. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
30
BTCUSD: Strength Continues Toward Bearish Trend Line?BTCUSD update: 10,500 swing trade target was reached yielding an 1800 point profit and you only had to hold since the 10th. Price is now pushing highs and is poised to break above the bearish trend line established in early January. There is nothing to do at these levels except watch. People are still sending me messages asking me if NOW is a good time to buy. Clearly they have not read my previous two weeks of reports, and/or their impulses are so strong, that they can't contain themselves. As I have written before, this is when the herd mentality kicks in and offers an opportunity for the prepared traders who positioned themselves much earlier to sell to the "obvious" crowd. The risks are shifting into high mode for initiating new trades. Current levels are a place to lock in profit, not buy. Now this is when greed begins to rear its ugly head. IF you participated in the swing trade which I defined clearly in my reports, selling some at 10,500 means you locked in some profit and reduced your risk. That was the plan, and if you stuck to it, you should acknowledge your ability to avoid the pitfalls of the herd. When locking in profit, I always reiterate that you should not exit your entire position. Maybe now you can see why. My average price is 10,020 and my plan since the beginning has been to hold for the broader bullish move. The 9887 to 10836 is a minor resistance zone and serves as a swing trade target and since I am not in a swing trade, I plan to hold and only begin to sell some of my position as this market attempts to cross the trend line which is around the 11,400 area. IF I see a selling formation establish itself such as a pin bar, bearish engulfing or other formations that imply oncoming weakness, I will take that as my signal to lock in at least 15% of my position. As long as the newly established bullish trend line stays intact, this market is more likely to push higher. This does not mean the market can't pull back. IF this market breaks the trend line, it will be signalling a possible retest of the 8171 to 4983 support zone (.618 of entire bullish structure). This scenario would prompt me to add more to my position trade once stability materializes after the retrace. Buying into the current highs presents more risk because if the retrace scenario takes effect, you will have the worst prices and face a lot more pain if this market decides to retest the low (ANYTHING can happen). Taking the most pain is what often pushes people out of positions at the bottom, which is the way of the herd, not the professional speculator. In summary, benefiting from the kind of bullish move that came from the 6K low requires planning and structure, not reacting. Often the best prices are the least obvious to the crowd and why having a perspective, and a structured evaluation process is key to capitalizing on their impulsive ways. Evaluation is not "predicting" as so many like to call it. It is about estimating loose probabilities which are based on repetitive price patterns and then considering that information in light of broader technical and fundamental factors. That is what yields a perspective and what facilitates positioning before the herd reacts to the obvious. What also makes this type of positioning possible is the acknowledgement of the potential risk, and comparing that to your personal loss threshold. That is how I decide if a position is worth taking. Charts serve as a tool to develop a perspective, and to quantify risk, they cannot determine your own risk tolerance. That part must come from you and your unique situation. Once you have an idea of what is reasonable on both sides of the market, then you can better decide if the situation is worth the risk relative to your own personal capacity. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
42
LTCUSD: Retrace To 186 Offers Next Buying Opportunity?LTCUSD update: Bearish trend line was cleared in a decisive move higher which lead this market to just under the 231 to 265 resistance zone. The next step is to add on the retrace. I have been writing about the clear reversal formations for weeks in the major coin markets. Of the three that I evaluate, this one had the clearest bullish signal which I highlighted in an update to my previous LTC report. This was the double bottom in the 118 area and was followed by the anticipated higher low, and you can now see the result. You want to be positioning yourself for these type of dramatic reactions, not jump in when it becomes obvious.This is why understanding your own risk tolerance is important, otherwise you will not have the confidence to enter when the most attractive reward/risk opportunities present themselves. The best time to buy is NOT obvious. Now that this market has proven that bullish momentum is in effect, my objective is to add to my position trade long on pull backs. The next pullback I am watching for is the 186 level which is now the .382 of the recent bullish swing. This level also coincides with the newly established bullish trend line. IF price manages to offer this opportunity, I need to then see some variety of a bullish reversal signal such as a pin bar or other type of pattern. Once in place, a swing trade and position trade opportunity will be presented. Why is a swing and position trade opportunity available at the same time? It is all relative to location. A pull back to the bullish trend line also happens to be overlapping with the large magnitude support zone of the 186 to 138 area (.618 of recent broader bull run). Trades off of this level offer attractive positioning for a broader move that can works its way back toward the highs over time. While at the same time, a swing trade can be taken that offers a shorter term opportunity with defined risk and a reasonable target range within the 231 to 265 area. If I think it's going back to the highs over time, why get out earlier? It is all dependent on your outlook and the risk you are willing to take. Also not all levels offer these type of opportunities. As the market goes higher, I will want to buy less for position trading and more for swing trading which keeps my risk in line with my tolerance. Swing trading is a lower risk strategy because you are in the market less time and take profits sooner compared to a broad position trade. In summary, if you find yourself feeling impulsive and anxious because you missed out on the earlier entries of this move, do not give in to the greed and fear of missing out, that is what the herd is for. Getting in the habit of looking ahead will separate you from the impulsive mindset and allow you to anticipate and position yourself to capitalize on the next reaction. In this case it is a simple pullback to the next support. At the same time, you must be mindful of risk because what if price falls through the support? IF that happens, the market would be telling us that it is range bound rather than bullish which will require an adjustment to the short term outlook and expectations. Price may only present a shallow retrace, which requires a more bullish adjustment. Having predetermined scenarios helps you prepare for and capitalize on market opportunities when they are not obvious, The herd cannot see beyond the scenario in front of them, while the experienced speculator is open to a multitude of possibilities and prepared for each one. Impulses steer you into the herd, the first step to avoiding that is becoming aware. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
BTCUSD: Resistance Zone Is First Profit Opportunity?BTCUSD update: Bullish momentum is in effect as price reaches the 9887 to 10836 resistance zone, coming off of the recent higher low formation. This is where the herd begins to get excited, and also where the first profit target should be considered for swing trades. On 2/11/18 I highlighted a swing trade that triggered on the break of the 8570 candle high (I got filled at 8690, it's in the report). I am holding for a broader move, but for those who were more interested in a swing trade (short term move, defined stop and target), the first target area is about 650 points away. The 9887 to 10836 is the first resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish swing), that is being tested since the sell off. The swing trade target that I highlighted is the 10500 level which is basically in the middle of the zone. Why sell if this market still has a lot of room to run? This is the first level to consider locking in SOME profit, not your entire position. IF you got long around the 8690 level, you are up almost 1200 points at the moment. and at 10,500 you would be up 1800. Not bad for 5 days, so why not lock some in? It reduces risk and allows you to outperform the buy and hold strategy in an environment that is not the most stable. Remember the herd mentality. When markets start breaking resistances and pushing highs, the crowd reacts. This type of reaction, which is now in the form of strength is an opportunity for those who were able to anticipate this move to sell into strength. This is a best practice and the only obstacle in your way is greed. What about the bigger picture trade though? This is where your perspective, outlook and risk tolerance come into play. The positions that I built as this market bottomed were part of a position trade. I did not use any stops or targets because my outlook is anticipating the broader trend to reassert itself. For my trade, that scenario would be confirmed upon the break of the bearish trend line that was established in January. This would put price around the 12K area. As I hold out for these possibilities, I am taking more risk. The market can turn back at any moment and retest the 8Ks or even lower IF this market goes into a range bound scenario. So with that said, for my position trade, I intend to lock in SOME profit IF we reach the trend line and get a bearish reversal candle. If on the other hand, price blows through, then there is no reason to sell until the next resistance takes hold which can be in the high 13Ks. If I am going to lock in some profit, I at least want to make sure I have given the market a chance to maximize it. Another way to do this is to use a manual trailing stop which you place at the low of the previous candle. This is a good technique for when you have reached an acceptable profit target, and there is no reason to sell. Just trail the stop and let the market take you out. In summary, hopefully from the series of my previous reports, you can piece together the process that I covered to build my long position trade in this market. Now that we are at a resistance, I have the luxury I deciding if I want to lock in some profit or hold to see if my bigger picture anticipation plays out. The key point is: from start to finish I have been following a plan and NOT reacting to anything. At the current resistance area, best practices tell me that this is an area to consider locking in profit, and NOT buying. If you missed all the buying opportunities that I have been writing about, and you buy now, you are taking much greater risk and buying into a resistance level. This area is an opportunity for people who want to lock in some profit, not initiate new positions. A break of the current bullish trend line will negate this momentum, so be mindful of that and manage your risk carefully. Otherwise, besides locking some in, the other best practice is let winners run. That is my plan until broader resistance levels are in play. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
27