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Higherlow

Bitcoin: Testing Lows Is Part Of The Process?Bitcoin update: Price is beginning its first real test to prove if the recent rally is truly the beginning of a broader recovery, or not. The chart formation that is still developing can be the sign of the bottom that everyone has been waiting for, but it still has a ways to go in terms of proof. On the other hand, if price clears the newly projected support levels, Bitcoin could be testing 3K again quickly. If you have been following our analysis, you should know by now that tops and bottoms take time to develop. Part of that development process is for price to generate and test new support and resistance levels. How the market chooses to deal with these levels is where trading opportunities can come from, but letting the market decide is key. Since the move from 3150 to 4230, Bitcoin has two projected support areas of 3800 and 3450 respectively. Simply reaching a level is not enough, the question is what kind of price action appears at the level? Candle stick reversals would be one type of signal that would call our attention to another potential swing trade long. By waiting for such a signal, you can better avoid the all too common mistake of jumping in too early, only to watch price push to new lows. Remember this market is not out of the clear as far as the short term bearish trend is concerned. Price needs to close above the 4400 area (COINBASE) to increase the probability that a bottom has been established. Since Bitcoin has not proven that a broader recovery has taken hold just yet, we continue to maintain a strong defense. This means long signals are considered aggressive (small positions), and trade management is tight. This defensive stance is what allowed us to come away with a 192 point profit as opposed to a 240 point loss in a recent swing trade that we shared with our followers. In summary, timing Bitcoin successfully is possible, but it will not come from following others analysis (ESPECIALLY from the majority of "experts" on here). Success begins with a particular mindset. We receive a lot of questions from inexperienced investors asking if they have "missed" the bottom since the Bitcoin short squeeze. They ask this from a mindset of "scarcity", which is the natural human reaction and also the first step toward failure. The fear of missing out is exactly that. And that fear often leads to expensive mistakes, large losses and empty accounts. If you want improve your performance, forget charts and oscillators, start by reshaping your thought process. Stop chasing scarcity, and instead begin your thought process with the idea that opportunities in any financial market are infinite. What IS scarce is their frequency, but there is a very simple solution to that and it is called patience. Remember missing signals doesn't wipe out your account. Have you missed the bottom? Buying at or near the actual bottom is a low probability game. You don't need to buy the bottom or sell the top to show a positive performance. If Bitcoin is going to sustain any significant recovery, there is a good chance it will produce more signals along the way. Signals that offer clear and attractive reward/risk. It is just a matter of having the patience to let it prove itself. This is a game of psychology. Charts can help us measure probabilities that are based on the natural tendencies of human behavior. If you cannot interpret the psychology behind all the pretty graphics that a chart provides, then you are making decisions based on random lines.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
BTC Update! Following pattern nicelyYesterdays chart we were watching the bulls as well as the shorts chart and I stated "in order to see these shorts get squeezed, the bulls need to break above $3486 (perhaps to somewhere in the 3500's) and then pull back briefly for a higher low and then break out again and into the 3600s+ for shorts to truly feel any pressure and create the squeeze to give a good size run up" The bulls were able to break above $3486 and ran another $100 up to $3586 before pulling back to set their lower high which they set down at $3437. Bulls are now back on the move and would love to break into $3600's tonight. If they set a lower high here, they'd then again look for a higher low and just tighten up the pattern before the eventual bear or bull break. I personally did scale into positions in the upper $3400's on the consolidation yesterday and will comfortably use the stop loss from our higher low. Thus far, volume looks fine with no red flags. EMAs on 4 hour are slowly catching up and could potentially serve as a support (as well as another higher low) tonight or tomorrow. Its nice to see some bullish movement but still a lot of work on daily and weekly charts to reverse any trends on the larger time frames. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTC Update! Bulls beat EMA resistance now want it as support!Last chart we were looking to see which direction BTC broke either Sunday or Monday. The break came Sunday and bulls were able to get to a new high off their recent lows. $3643 is now the resistance to watch and bulls have a higher low down at $3254 they now want to protect. Bulls were able to get above 12 and 26 EMA resistances on 4 hour chart with the move yesterday but continue to remain under the 12 EMA on daily chart. Since pulling back here the bulls are seeking another higher low and appear to be try to hold 12 EMA on 4 hour as support with bulls buying up anything when it dips below 12 EMA. But anything above $3254 would give a nice higher low and then bulls would seek another higher high to try and shift the trend. Bears have covered a significant amount of shorts over the last couple of days but never saw enough pressure from the bulls to create a short squeeze and really get BTC running higher. The overall lack of a significant/sustained bounce from our lows has me continue to think long term our low is not set but as one who only trades bullish, sure would like a shift in the trend to give the bulls a little rally even if only for a week or two. But will wait for bulls to show some proof they aren't going to just lay down and let the bears take right back over this week. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTC Update! 4 Hour found its higher low and another higher highYesterdays post we had touched $4350 and I was personally looking for some consolidation as the 4 hour chart was over extended so I had scaled out of 80% of my position and potentially looking to reload on the consolidation. We reached $4365 and then consolidated back to $4078 (so about a 6.5% pullback). Perfectly healthy and expected and then BTC broke out over night (my time) to another higher high at $4415! I am a bit surprised at the higher high as ETH and LTC have not accomplished this and formed their 4 hour higher low and thus far a lower high. I have moved my SL up based on the 4 hour higher low for the remainder of my position and thus far did not reload anything from the portion I had taken profits on. Being a bit cautious as Shorts are still extremely high and just don't care to cover much and with ETH and LTC showing a bit more weakness in not making a higher high again, makes me concerned we may see the same start to show up with BTC. So just staying protective, was a great trade and no need to take on anything risky here. Lets see how the day plays out. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTCUSD - Modeling 29 June as pivot point for BTC recoveryBTCUSD - Was 29 June the pivot point for the future of BTC? This was my procrastination project for the day in between working. 29 June may have been the turn-around for recovery in the BTC 2018 crash. What we see since then is a consistent rejection of what appeared to be an establishing downward LL trendline. While the 14 Aug HL may have been an anomaly, the 08 Sep HL appears to be a confirmation of the changing low trendline. The tightening market led to some minor confirmations, but I am not personally convinced of an incoming bull market unless BTC can recover from (approx) $6000. At the moment, this chart is not making any claims to incoming markets. All indications I have are that it is totally unpredictable what is going to happen come the end of the squeeze and volume likely returns. Today's breakout above the 05 Sep to 22 Sep high trendline possibly is a minor sign of a coming bull market. It remains to be seen if the 24 July to 05 Sep high trendline can be broken, and most tellingly, the 5 March to 24 July high trendline.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CuriousKryk
BTC Update! Gave us the higher low & higher high we were seekingOk gang, jumping off last chart. I discussed the bulls re-entering the original zone of $6345-6493 we had traded within for 2 weeks but the bulls were struggling to maintain the lower portion of the zone. I was scaling into my positions at that time to watch for bulls to form another higher low compared to $6293 and then ideally give us a higher high which would have been getting above $6378. Bulls were able to form the higher low at $6313 last night and then gave us a nice uptick in bull volume this morning to push for the higher high which topped out at $6440. Thus far, this really does not prove much to me overall for this move other than it now keeps me close to break even on my trade as I will move my SL up to just under this recent higher low. But as stated last chart, $6493, the height of the prior zone we traded in, or call it $6500 psychologically, is where I need to see these bulls push above. Currently perfectly healthy consolidation from this push up. Red flags here would include spikes in bear volume or just a significantly prolonged consolidation (days out again within a small range). Otherwise, bulls ideally want to see some consolidation here today and then a push for that $6500 resistance. After that, will look up towards the low $6800's where we have been rejected at $6823 and then at $6810 previously. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTCUSD: Range Bound But Structure Improving.BTCUSD update: Not much action since the massive short squeeze recently. There is very little to go by in terms of market structure and timing and why we have be on the side lines WAITING. Those who do not know any better continue to trade and only feed the herd, while we prepare for the high probability move. The Tether situation has created a layer of uncertainty that cannot be evaluated from a chart. We have been watching the spread between Bitfinex and Coinbase as one of our determiners of the internal health of this market. The fact that the spread has been narrowing is a bullish sign by our evaluation. There have been conspiracy theories about Tether since its inception. Very similar to the conspiracy dramas that attract a lot of attention toward the Gold and Silver markets (for YEARS). We can sit here and argue about insignificant facts and figures, but the bottom line is this: it is in the best interest of the exchanges involved to resolve any instability created by Tether, perceived or real. There is too much transaction revenue at stake alone to let something like this unravel. The other thing to remember is: these markets have NO REGULATION. That means very large players (Like Goldman Sachs) can employ age old techniques to accumulate coins at attractive prices. Especially in these markets where ignorance runs high. Doing things like engineering large sell offs to shake out the weak and lure to inexperienced. Trolls like to complain about this sort of thing. We simply recognize it, and consider it when evaluating price action and levels. So far the sharp pull back from the 6700 area to 6100 appears to be in line with this consideration. Since the Tether situation has contributed to the widening spread between Bitfinex and Coinbase, we put more credibility into the Coinbase chart (it is backed by Dollars). When this situation resolves itself, we will go back to Bitfinex charts. With that being said, the Coinbase chart is demonstrating a much healthier formation. We are looking for a particular swing trade long setup to capitalize on the possibility of a shallow higher low. A sharp close above the bearish trend line will serve as confirmation. What makes this situation unique is the range expansion the occurred previously. If price cannot rally from there, we are then looking for support around the lower 6K region. So far the psychological level itself has been in place for MONTHS. In summary, high probability opportunities in this market are INFREQUENT. People who do not understand that are still wrapped up in the bad habits that were reinforced during the "easy bull market" where everyone was right no matter what. This persistent range bound environment is what exposes those who do not have enough experience to adjust. A positive performance comes from avoiding losses as much as it does from generating profits. This is mostly achieved through WAITING when the market shows NO REASON TO TRADE. Patience saves money, costs nothing and is not hard to comprehend. Knowing how to apply it is where the value comes from and this is a function of psychology, NOT a chart formation. Just something to think about.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
17
BTC Update! Recognizing support & resistance levels!Good evening everyone! We had about 48 hours of nothing occurring since last update. Two charts ago we were watching to see which side caved with the 3 supports in $6400's and 3 resistances in $6600's. The bears won that battle and sent us down to $6399 which is when I entered some positions, using $6320 as my stop loss based on the next support level. We then saw a rally up where again, we knew we had 3 resistance spots of $6610, 6640, and 6642. This has me taking some profit in the upper $6500's just to lock the profit in and recognizing potential resistance spots. We topped out at $6603. Last chart I discussed just having patience with the remainder of my position and if bulls could not break the resistances, I'd be watching for a 4 hour higher low to be formed and this would then become an updated stop loss area just to protect profits. Bulls established that at $6511 on the consolidation. And finally after literally no movement up or down for a while, we saw the bulls try and make their move. They rallied straight to, you guessed it, resistance. $6641 is where this move topped out. I personally left my position in tact as was not at a computer to move from SL to profit taking but do not believe I would have exited anyways. At this time, I'll ride the stop losses to protect profits and wait to see if the bulls can prove themselves and get above the resistance spot now at $6641 and $6642. So we essentially have a triple top including $6640 from before. Ok, so am I bullish or bearish? Overall I am neutral because the weekly remains in an equilibrium pattern. So let's weigh some positives and negatives of current market. Positive, bulls got above the high from 2 days ago at $6603. Negative, they still could not beat the 3 resistance zones, getting ahead of $6610 and rejecting hard with the triple top. Negative - the upper wick on the candle screams profit taking just as it did before. I'll keep a few stop losses loose personally just to avoid the market makers fishing for those stops as this market continues to be easily moved with thin order books. Market is in a bit of a channel currently as well so I am keeping a close watch on that. While I'll happily stop out if higher lows are lost and protect my profit, I'd then be watching the channel to re-enter positions and use the channel as a SL if needed. Lots of ways to play this market but overall its currently a market I am not dedicating a ton of time to as the moves have been small so a couple of checks on the chart each day just to see where things are and if I need to adjust stops or alerts. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTCUSD: Structural Clues Lean Toward Bullish Breakout.BTCUSD update: Price action is going nowhere fast. A consolidation within a consolidation. A tough market for those who do not have the ability to wait. The question is: are there any clues as to which way it will break out? Just like trending markets do not continue forever, neither do ranging markets. Consolidations are an expression of balance in terms of order flow. Buying and selling pressure is generally equal. The thing is, eventually one side will be wrong. And that natural order flow should provide the momentum for a significant break out. Are there any clues or hints that may tip off which side is the right side? In terms of price structure, yes. And it comes in the form of a higher low formation. Higher lows often lead to higher highs during trending markets. In range bound markets, they may not offer the same likelihood because of the high amount of randomness, BUT they often appear before a break out. In the case of Bitcoin, there is a clear higher low in place at the 6450 area. Below that is the 6350 area which serves as the base of this structure that leans toward the bullish side. In fact the structure was compelling enough for us to take two swing trade long positions. One of them reached their first target, before stopping out on the other half for break even. As long as this structure (represented by the newly formed bullish trend line) is maintained, we believe the break out has a greater chance of being bullish. We are positioned for that scenario and anticipate a move to at least 7K. In summary, this is the type of market where brokers and exchanges make the most money from people looking for action every day. There is no action. Impatience and the need for action are expensive emotional conflicts that put people in a financial hole. When the better market returns, they have to spend their time and effort making money back rather than advancing the growth of their capital. These are the same people who blame the market, the whales and the exchanges for their problems. Meanwhile they do not realize their own mental framework is at fault. It all begins with having criteria, categorizing trades and waiting for the market to play along. This is what active listening is all about when it comes to adjusting and preparing for the next move. The fact that this is a game of psychology, not charts and numbers is why it is easy to understand the concept of "waiting" but so difficult to practice.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
57
BTC Update! 4 hour lower high, higher low and then bull break!Jumping off yesterdays chart we saw the pattern the bulls needed! Yesterday I posted: "They are currently back and battling the $6400 area. In order for the bulls to regain the upper hand, they need to form a lower high compared to $6655, a higher low compared to $6320 and then look for the higher high" From there we saw the bulls travel to $6537 to give the lower high compared to $6655. We then saw them drop back to $6425 to give the higher low compared to $6320. The safe bull entry would now be a break above $6537 for a quick 3% pump in 20 minutes. Our next resistance area is up at $6777 and then $6823. Bulls ideally want to see a brief consolidation sideways here to flag out and then bull break towards $6800's. I highlighted the lines in pink for now that will eventually be removed just to show those unfamiliar with how higher/lower highs/lows work. I am still keeping same weekly chart as previously posted with $7403 as our true lower high to beat. If the bulls fail to get above $6823 on this move and we drop back down, that would potentially become our new lower high on weekly. BTC continues to follow technical analysis beautifully with extremely low risk entries for quick and easy profits despite the overall 2018 market being bearish. My strategy for 2018 remains, protect that capital, continue to scalp the quick profits and just accumulate more capital this way for the eventual return of a bull market. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
4
ETHUSD: Higher Low New Strength?Ethereum update: A market that is weak sells off quickly. The bullish inside bar in this market is a sign of a fake out, and not a characteristic of weakness. On top of that, the current structure may be turning into a higher low formation. Bad for shorts. This is the first sign of improved structure since this market made an attempt in July. It is still too early to make any changes to our strategy at S.C., but it is certainly a welcome sign. The reason why it is too early to call this a bottom is because Bitcoin needs to improve also. If the higher low fails to follow through, the formation will more likely evolve into another bearish continuation pattern. This is not something that is predictable, it is something that the market must demonstrate. Predicting and timing a market are not the same. People who claim they are "predicting" are still learning. Anticipating a market is the practice of interpreting available information in a way that identifies some form of advantage. We express this in terms of probability. People who predict imply absolutes and there are none in a highly random environment such as a financial market. When the environment is clearly UNFAVORABLE, we sit on the sidelines. Being aggressive at the wrong time is much more expensive than being conservative at the wrong time. The herd may criticize us for waiting it out, but our funds will still be available for when the favorable environment returns. Of course the herd will be made up of entirely new critics that will take the place of the current ones. In summary, the question that we are waiting for the market to answer is: if Bitcoin tests its low, will Ethereum make a new low? So far the higher low or failed low scenario is gaining favor. The fact that price did not collapse as usual can also be interpreted as a new sign of strength. If this market is going to recover, there will be plenty of opportunities to board this train. Especially if important resistance levels like 300 are taken out in the process. While the market builds the structure that we want to see, we wait rather than react. Waiting is free and can be practiced indefinitely. Reacting is not, just ask all the bears that jumped into the sell signal.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
13
Updated Bull ELLIOTT WAVES- Off we go, into the wild blue yonderI've extended my Elliott Wave count and made only one slight adjustment over the last week. My ABC correction wave remains intact, as you can see, but the bears decided to continue their relentless attack and created a WXY combo wave taking us down to 6128. This is a deep retrace of the SuperCycle wave II, slightly beyond .786 retrace. That is a super bullish sign for me...IF we have seen the bottom of that retrace. Like I said, I've added my next idea of the Minor Wave counts showing that we could be on Wave 3 heading up to 6800 right now. That wave is a bit of conjecture right now, but I like to layout a potential pathway early to test the EW theory and my own understanding. For full disclosure, my predictions have not been perfect regarding specific price targets. For example, I expected the ABC correction to bring us down to 6800 levels only, the .618 fib retrace level. Instead the WXY combo wave took shape and brought us all the way down to 6128. Nevertheless, the pullback was expected. So the general idea of the bull impulse, and this retrace, followed by WAVE III of the Supercycle, that could well be started already, have been very good predictors of the market. Still, this next wave is conjecture, and we have to look at the chart patterns and volume indicators etc to see if it will continue higher or not. I will not claim any victory on this Minor Wave 3 count in the light blue until we bust through that large black downtrend line that indicates we are still in the retrace pattern (which could end up being more than a retrace, and the start of a whole new downtrend). Currently, we are fighting at heavy resistance around the 6500-6600 level. This was important resistance and support in the near past and is proving once again to do the same. If this breaks upward, I would expect this Wave 3 to take us to 6800-6900 red resistance box before another retest of this level. Call it a retest or a retrace. Same thing. So have we seen the short term bottom of this thing? What do you think? If this really is a short term bottom, than looking back to June, we have just printed a Higher Low...and that is great news for the bulls. Have a Great Day! ps- I'll post a Daily pullback view to see that my next Impulse Wave Cycle will take us up to 9800-10000 by September! pss- Check out my related ideas below for my original wave counts and ideas from last month!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by bluemt95
BTCUSD: Next Leg Higher Can Break 8500.BTCUSD update: This market has retraced into an attractive support area. As price action stabilizes, it can be setting up for the next leg higher. This is the location where a breakout offers much more potential compared to a break of a high. At S.C., we have been tracking this retrace carefully. We have also issued and adjusted swing trade orders in markets like ETH and LTC which also have a lot of potential if this next bullish leg unfolds. The 7450 area happens to be the .382 retrace of the current bullish structure. If the recent strength is going to stay intact, this level will have to be maintained. Reversal candles off this level will provide the validation we need to justify risk on the swing trade and position trade time frames. IF the next leg higher unfolds, a target of the 8500 area is within reason. In theory, price should push to a higher high if it is going to keep the integrity of the bullish structure. The low 9Ks would be a more aggressive expectation, but since this market is in recovery mode, giving it a chance to reach further is in line with best practices. IF the market manages to reach these levels, they will be a place to lock in profits, not initiate new positions. If price falls apart, which it can, the next support area is around the 7K whole number. A retrace to these levels or below will change the nature of the current price structure from bullish to more of a range bound context over the near term. In summary, waiting for price location and setups to align is a process based on patience. Not reacting to news, rumors and other conspiracy theories is the first step. Also following simple best practices such as buying near support levels in markets that have proven to be strong also helps. This market is poised to go higher, but there is no guarantee. Being able to recognize and factor in risk is a key trait of a successful market timer. Just like patience, you do not need to be an expert to consider risk. It begins with asking questions like: What happens if my trade goes the wrong way? How far is within reason in terms of market structure? How far is too far? And if it goes this far, how much capital loss is acceptable? These questions should be answered BEFORE you enter the trade. As S.C. we are anticipating a move higher, but we always consider the risks no matter how attractive the setup. This is how we determine if an idea is more appropriate for a swing or position trade and what sizing strategy to use. No matter what, we know that the market is always right. Our job is to listen and adjust to new information as it becomes available. Having an open mind and being flexible are what help you align your decisions with the probabilities of what its next move.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
BTCUSD: Avoid The Noise. No Retrace? No Entry.BTCUSD update: Price is still gyrating around the low 8Ks which is nothing more than randomness. The fact that yesterday's low of 8123 was just taken out also adds to the retrace argument as well. We have been patiently waiting to buy into the more attractive prices relative to this formation which are below the 7800 level. I published a report earlier on S.C. that explained the specific levels that we are waiting for. In that report I wrote that buying bullish breakouts in a consolidating market is more likely to lead to a fake out. We are looking for the opposite scenario, which would be a false bearish break. The 7450 minor support (.382 of the recent bullish structure) is the level that needs to be maintained in order for the trend to continue. A close below and that would increase the chances of a broader range bound market rather than a decisively bullish one. Any push into the area above 8500 at this point is not a location to initiate new longs. In fact I wrote that this area is a place to lock in profits because of the bearish reversal zone boundary located just above. In summary, timing a market is not about catching "the next move". It is about defining where the highest probability trades can occur and waiting for the market to align. It is not about profit, it is about probability. That is the mentality that facilitates long term consistency in this business. Flat is a position that preserves capital but more importantly preserves confidence. Without it, fear is more likely to guide your decisions and you are more likely to be reactive. If this market refuses to retrace and provide a solid high probability opportunity, then there is no reason to trade. Forced trades may work on occasion, but do not cover the losses and costs that are incurred over time. Stack probabilities in your favor by waiting for quality, not reacting to quantity.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
ETHUSD: 450 Area Potential For Next Buy.ETHUSD update: Following the BTC surge, this market has reversed out of the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone which should not be a surprise. Now that a bullish trend line has also been established, it is more reasonable to expect supports to hold as this market continues. The 455 to 439 minor support (.618 of recent bullish swing) is the next area that we are eyeing for reversal patterns. Based on the current rate of momentum, the next low is likely to be established over the next couple of days. If this support is cleared, the low 400's is the next area to anticipate a bullish reversal. It all depends on how BTC unfolds. Sentiment dominates short term price action and at S.C. we are always on the lookout for extremes across a variety of magnitudes. Extreme sentiment is where the highest probability setups appear. In summary, buying pull backs can be tricky. Now that bullish price action is gaining a grip on these markets, it is within reason to expect more follow through. The next leg up has potential to test the 515 swing high at least. That is the what we will be using as a point of reference for profit targets. The best thing you can do is learn to think in probabilities. Certain methodologies and tools help you do this better than others. Earlier on S.C. I wrote an article about Elliott Wave and shared an updated count on BTC. When used properly, it serves as a valuable guide to compare to price action as it unfolds. Check it out because it offers some insight into the broader expectations of this market as well.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
3
BTC:USD DAILY UPDATE (day 140) Yesterday’s analysis : Rally should take us to the bottom of the triangle and the 128 day MA - around $7,600. Then pullback to $6,200. From there I expect us to find a base and rally back to $10,000. If you missed it I would highly recommend checking out the Bitcoin Bubble Comparison that was posted yesterday. Patterns: higher low/diamond bottom. Inverse h&s with $7,835 target and $6,825 neckline Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,800 S: $6,676 BTCUSDSHORTS: Broke out of channel, but found resistance at 24,717. Hanging man on the daily. Expect 21,400 support to be retested Funding Rates: Today longs will pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: +3.94% 26: +3.36% | Getting ready to make bullish crossover on daily for first time since 4/19. Recent bullish cross on 12h. MA crossovers (50 and 128): Bullish on 1h. Getting ready to cross on 2h. FIB’s: 0.382 at $8,476 and 0.236 at $5,817 Candlestick analysis: Ichimoku Cloud: Kijun at $7,184. Cloud at $7,488. Fully bearish. 6h just broke out of cloud, had a bullish kumo twist, and is getting ready for a TK' cross. TD' Sequential: Green 2 above a green 1 on the daily. Green 1 after a red 9 on the weekly. Green 8 on 12h. Visible Range: Increasing resistance from here to $9,000 50 & 128 MA’s (calculate % difference): 50: Current candle is trying to breakthrough 128: -13.36% BTC Price Spreadsheet: X Bollinger Bands: Monthly MA is at $5,473 Weekly is starting to sqeeze. MA is at $7,738. Top band on daily is apart of resistance cluster at $6,800 Trendline: Bull trend start at 9/15/17 and connect with 6/30/18 (green dotted). Bear trend was recently broken. Down trend from triangle will be at ~$7,600 Daily Trend: Bullish since 6/29 Fractals: UP: $6,822 DOWN: $6,075 On Balance Volume: Coming up with the price Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI: 56.3 | Stoch: 70.5 | Short term MA’s showing buy signals. Conclusion: Very confident in a pump to $7,500. Green 2 trading above a green 1 on the daily is providing an entry. I have set a stop order to long as soon as the price reaches $6,851. That will allow us to break through the major resistance at $6,800 and will still get us in a position with a favorable risk reward. Stop loss would be set at $6,474
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
3
BTCUSD: Bullish Confirmation Means Wait For Better Buy.BTCUSD update: Short squeeze straight to the 7381 resistance level. Impressive move and the kind that has not been seen in some time. The move serves as the confirmation that a broader recovery is in progress, but the high is no place to buy. The objective now is to identify where the next buying opportunity is likely to materialize. As I wrote in my previous BTC report, a break above 6850 activates the inverted head and shoulders and that is now in the realm of Captain Obvious. All of the "experts" who were all shouting BTC 3K are now all shouting BTC 10K. Where were they in June? The confirmed inverted head and shoulders signifies a broader bullish movement is now in progress. This means support levels are more likely to hold and resistances break. 7381 is the .382 resistance of the bearish structure relative to 9990 high. This is a key level that needs to be cleared in order to pave the way for a recovery back to 10K. There will be minor resistances along the way, and they will serve as potential targets, not levels to short. As of now, this is a location to lock in profit if you have some. Do not be distracted by the noise emanating from the talking heads or your own urge to buy. Patience pays, not forced trades. At S.C., we are waiting for the next swing trade setup. Based on current structure, the first attractive location is the 6823 support (.382 of the recent bullish structure relative to the 5750 low). In summary, no one can predict when these types of moves are going to unfold. It is all about the probability of the location. At the lows I specifically pointed out that sentiment was completely inverse to where we were at the December highs. Now that price has established clear bullish structure, we can form new expectations about behavior in the near future. It is reasonable to expect higher lows and supports to hold. We know where the most attractive prices are, but we don't know if the market will test them. No market rallies in a straight line. Over the next week or so, a retrace of an unknown magnitude is likely. At S.C. patience is our guide as we follow best practices and wait for a favorable setup. Also there is a rumor that I am leaving TV. I am flattered that the community would notice something like that, but it is NOT true. This community has been very warm and supportive and I am grateful for the ability and experience to be able to help others on here. I was new to this game once and understand the struggles all too well. There is no better reward than people reaching out to thank me for providing a better learning experience. All I wrote in my previous report was at S.C. we are making some changes in regard to the availability of our content.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
53
ETHUSD: 442 Inside Bar Trigger Setting Up For Low 500s Target.ETHUSD update: Price has tested the 423 reversal zone boundary for a second time. Following BTC, it appears this market is also gearing up to establish a higher low formation. There is now a new inside bar in place. If the next candle takes out the 442 high, it will activate a buy trigger and The next leg higher can run into the resistance zone around the low 500's. Earlier today I published an article on S.C. that touched on the inverted head and shoulders pattern that is in progress in the BTC market. Price is currently establishing the right shoulder and missed my limit buy order by 5 points. If BTC manages to maintain the higher low, it will signal a new wave of bullish momentum in general. An inverted head and shoulders pattern in BTC is a significant sign of broader strength. This is the type of pattern that can be anticipated in a high probability reversal location like BTC has been in for some time. And if BTC chooses to test 6850, that would coincide with this market testing the 494 to 518 minor resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing relative to 548 high). That would also result in the break of the more recent bearish trend line in the 470s which further adds to the bullish argument. What makes this market even more compelling is the attractiveness of the reward/risk. Risk can be measured from the 417 low or 392 low, which ever one is more in line with your tolerance. From current levels that is anywhere from 14 to 40 points of risk while the reward potential is at least 60 points. At S.C., this certainly fits within the parameters of our swing trade criteria. In summary, like I have been writing in my S.C. articles, a market that is going through the bottoming process will be noisy. Understanding how to use technical analysis to measure probabilities is key to navigating an environment like this. Keep in mind, the inside bar low can also be taken out which would generate a sell trigger. This is when you must consider the probability of the broader location and is part of the reason why we place more weight on the buy trigger. Consider focusing on tools that help you anticipate rather than react. Support and resistance and candle sticks are two elements that offer a better read compared to your standard oscillator. Often the best opportunities start out as the ugliest prices.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
BTCUSD: Higher Low Can Lead To Inverted Head & Shoulders.BTCUSD update: Price has retraced to the 6300 area which is serves as a minor support. As I wrote in today's S.C. report, this market is in position to establish an inverted head and shoulders pattern which is a long term bullish sign. Since there are no specific triggers to go long, we are still waiting see if price offers a buying opportunity around the 6K area. This is a go and stop market, one that does not treat reactionary traders nicely. Understanding the type of environment and where to anticipate movements based on probability is key. This is why we did not buy the consolidation break out going into the resistance zone. The risk of retrace was high and the situation did not fit the criteria of our swing trade plan.The question is where is the best place to get long since the retrace is in progress? 6167 to 5999 is the minor .618 support zone relative to the recent bullish swing. This would be a very convenient and high probability location for a reversal candle to appear. The other level is the 5669 reversal zone boundary which would be the extreme price scenario. This is when the market usually looks the ugliest and the weak hands are shaken. In summary, if this market establishes a broader higher low formation around the current price, it could lead to a test of the 7120 reversal zone. As I wrote in my detailed S.C. report, this level serves as a reasonable point of reference for short term profit targets. The broader formation is in line with our high probability location premise that we have been writing about since May. If it follows through, price can very well be on its way back to the 7381 resistance and beyond. At S.C. we prepare and wait for the market to offer opportunities that fit within the scope of our risk profile. These opportunities are not isolated to one strategy, and is the reason why we accumulate inventory as well as take shorter term swing trades. Many less experienced traders have a tough time in these markets because they rely on tools or information that focus on irrelevant price activity. Projected support and resistance, psychological numbers and chart patterns can provide a lot of value in a noisy environment where oscillators are much less effective. Either way, prepare for scenarios rather than "predict" them. At least this way you put yourself in a position to let the market come to you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18