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ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: The Next Supports.ETHUSD update: Nice push into the 271 to 291 resistance zone off of the shallow higher low. Tough trade to take because of the risk, and now even more so since price did not clear the resistance completely. Bullish movements back up in the face of bearish structure is probably the most confusing for newer traders. Don't worry because if this market is going to present consistent bullish momentum, there will be more opportunities to get in even if the prices are higher. The problem with entering now is that price is sitting at a high, and still hesitating near the range of the resistance zone. The next retrace will offer a much better opportunity in my opinion compared to where it is now. The key to buying into this market is waiting to see how low the next retrace goes. Now that there is some bullish structure to work with, there are new reference points to consider. The first level that I will be evaluating is a retrace to the 260 area. Not only has this level been a key level during the major selloff, but is now the .382 of the recent bullish structure. If price can hold this area, and show a reversal pattern, I will be looking for a long swing trade with a target into the low 300s. If price falls through, then the next area is the 237 to 220 support which is the .618 of the recent bullish structure. I need to evaluate the price structure at the time in order to evaluate the risk. I must make this clear: I am not putting buy orders in ahead of time. I am waiting to evaluate the price action IF the market revisits these levels. This market may not retrace at all and start pushing higher in which case I will NOT enter any position. Also since the current move up has not completely cleared the resistance zone, this market still has a good possibility of falling through the supports to test the lows (Remember Wave C?). What is good about the current price structure is it's showing the possibility of momentum changing, but it has yet to prove itself. One negative catalyst and these supports will vanish. That is why as short term traders we evaluate risk and use stops. Also I must add IF another dramatic sell off materializes, the extreme prices will present investment opportunities for those who are interested in long term (AS IN HOLDING FOR YEARS). It is a completely different mindset and strategy from short term trading but I feel is worth mentioning because it requires much less precision. Just make sure to keep the strategies separate. Each one has its own plan and risk parameters, if you do not have any type of plan, then you should not be in these markets to begin with. In summary, do not be frustrated by the recent upswing. Be happy you weren't short. Since price is hesitating within the projected resistance zone, I believe there is a better chance it retraces. If it can retrace back to a projected support level, and show some reversal confirmations on smaller time frames, then risk can be evaluated and setting a target in the low 300s is reasonable. Reward to risk should be no less than 1:1. And remember these supports are minor relative to the bearish structures that are currently in place. If they hold, great. If they break, then be prepared for the possibility of another test of the extremes, (which is not a bad thing if you are an investor). In the big picture, these markets are not that bearish, they just need to stabilize which may call for some range bound price action for a little while. The market will let us know. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Resistance Zone Above.ETHUSD Update: Shallow higher low established at the 238 level while price is attempting to push the minor resistance at the 259 to 262 area. The problem is momentum is still bearish and the 271 to 291 resistance zone ahead can lead to a lower high. The higher low in place is a great example of a reversal formation, the problem is it has appeared in a very limiting context. First, price did not retrace back into the 233 or 220 support areas which would have been fine if this market was presenting bullish momentum like just retracing from a new high. Instead, price is showing a higher low (a sign of strength) in an environment of lower highers and a .382 resistance zone just ahead in the 271 to 291 area. So buying into this price action for a swing trade presents risk that is too high until there is evidence of bullish momentum again. Why would a pullback to the 233 level or 220 be any better? It would present a risk/reward that is much more attractive, which would make a swing trade worth taking. For example, a retrace to 225 and reversal allows for a target of the low 270s while placing a stop in the low 200s. Risking 25 to make 50 is worthwhile. Buying in the 260s allows for maybe a 15 to 20 point target, with at least a 20 point stop which offers around 1:1 which isn't bad BUT this is accompanied by the higher possibility of the 271 area asserting a lower high in this environment. So there is more working against the trade at these levels and the reason why I will continue to stay flat. In order to prove bullish momentum is backl, price needs to push beyond 291. At that point, a subsequent retrace will offer a better opportunity because momentum will be more in favor of longs for a swing trade time horizon. And don't forget, in my previous report I wrote about the Wave C in the BTC market which still has plenty of room to complete which again favors lower prices. And since the alt coins are playing follow the leader, any further sell off in BTC will weigh on these coins. Another factor that increases the risk of taking a swing trade at current levels. In summary, it is very challenging not to get lured into price formations that look like great buying opportunities. What many less experienced participants fail to consider is the context of the situation. The formation looks good, but there are too many factors in the environment that reduce the attractiveness in terms of reward/risk. If price is going to reverse back up dramatically and return to the bullish momentum that we are all familiar with,it will offer plenty of opportunities to get back in at much more attractive reward to risk ratios, even if the price is higher. I have no problem taking more aggressive entries, but only when the context favors the position, and at the moment it does not. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Stability And Trigger.ETHUSD Update: Stability forming now that two higher lows are in place at the 267 and 276 levels. This allows for a clear definition of risk and a scenario that can lead to a new long position. At the 267 level there is a bounce that retraces back to 276. This formation is a broad higher low which indicates strength returning to this market. The bearish momentum has failed to push new lows. Plus there is a smaller higher low at the 287 level which signals further stability because higher lows often lead to? Higher highs. Two formations like these within the 296 support level which I have been writing about for a few reports now, are the signs of stability I have been patiently waiting for. If you observe the ETHBTC market which has been a great source for additional clues, it also has a clear higher low formation in place which adds to the stability argument even more. What is most important about these structures besides where they appearing is that fact that the market has offered clear reference points to define risk from: The 267, 276 and 287 lows. With this information I can determine if a long swing trade is worth taking. The next question is where is the entry and the target? A break above 310 is a new long signal because that indicates bullish momentum returning. A long position at 310 with a stop in the mid 280s and a target in the mid 340s offers just over 1:1 reward/risk (and that is being extremely conservative). If there is any positive catalyst along the way, that can push prices further, but for now I am going to use the 350 area as the initial target. The beauty of this kind of trigger is if price never breaks 310, then that means bullish momentum is still limited and there is no trade and no risk taken. IF instead price decides to break below the key support levels relative to these higher low structures, like 287 or 276, then that would signal bearish momentum is still present and I would wait and see where the market stabilizes again before any further evaluation. Also a break below the 267 low will negate the possibilities of the present stability completely, and open the door to the 230 support zone. This is why it is very important not to take a position too early and wait for a trigger. (Unless you enjoy pain). Another point I want to make is this: my previous reports have been bearish, and now this one is much more bullish. I do not base my observations on feelings, or my opinion, or what anyone says or writes. I base my outlook on what clues the MARKET provides and I am flexible enough to recognize new information while not getting stuck on ANY opinions. The market doesn't care what I think. So I don't, I "listen" instead. In summary, this is the kind of price action that my plan forces me to WAIT for before taking a new position after a sell off. It is very challenging because it requires a ton of patience to wait for (it has been a number of days). The only way to achieve this kind of patience is with a well defined plan, and not getting sucked in by the hype, the price noise and your own impulses, fears, and bias. If the context of these market conditions were more bullish, (like they used to be) then the entry criteria would be less restrictive so this is why context is so important for the analytical elements that I employ. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
54
ETHBTC Perspective And Levels:Clear Wave Count Implies Strength.ETHBTC Update: In terms of BTC, this market has a clearer wave count that points to one more upswing before a broader correction unfolds. The high .089s to the low .090s area is a reasonable zone to expect a Wave 5 completion which sheds light on the potential of the upcoming ETH upswing. I have been covering the ETHUSD market very closely, and since not much has changed since my previous report, now would be a good time to explore it from another perspective. Many participants buy and sell in terms of BTC, and because of this, there is an additional layer of complexity that can cause confusion when evaluating these markets against the USD. Before I get into the levels, I want to mention that when you buy ETH against BTC, you are essentially shorting BTC. Just like when you buy the EUR against the USD, you are long EUR / short USD. Compared to BTC, fiat is extremely stable. In the fiat markets we are using leverage to take advantage of fluctuations worth fractions of a penny, while BTC climbs dollars per minute. It is possible for ETH and BTC to go up at the same time, but then the focus becomes about the rate of change. ETH must rise faster than BTC and this pair will go up. If both are rising at an equal rate, this pair will show no progress. And if BTC is rising faster, ETH will decline. And this is why I prefer to buy against the USD. USD is generally weak to begin with, and even if there is any buying, it is fractional compared to the price action in ETH. So let's talk about levels and what this chart tells us about ETH. First it is important to note that .060 to .079 BTC is a very broad support zone that is relative to the .618 of the larger bullish swing if you look back at the price history. And at the moment, bullish price structure is working it's way back up and away from this area which is a bullish sign. There is also a support zone at the .07014 area to the .07376 which needs to be maintained in order for ETH to go higher. As far as resistance, there is zone from .08306 to .08781 which is relative to the .618 of the recent broader bearish swing. A price push through this area can lead to a retest of the low .090's which is not unreasonable when we observe the current wave count. In terms of Elliott Wave, there is a clear impulse structure in place that meets all the requirements. The current bottom of Wave 4 does not overlap into the area of Wave 1 and this market is in the early part of a Wave 5. And since Wave 5's have more of a tendency to extend, reaching into the low .090's to complete Wave 5 is within reason. In summary, observing these markets from different perspectives can provide additional clues about what to expect in the near term. This chart, just like ETHUSD, is full of bullish structures and implies that if anything, ETH should rise at a faster rate than BTC. Since I buy ETH in terms of USD, I use this chart to give me additional insight, and not for buy and sell signals. Comments and questions welcome.
Long
by MarcPMarkets
14
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Higher Low Is Bullish But Slow.ETHUSD Update: Higher low unfolds in the low 290s which establishes a subdegree Wave 2 bottom. All this market needs is a catalyst because in terms of price structure, this it is poised to push the 315 resistance. So much for the head and shoulders everyone was afraid of. If that bearish reversal pattern was in play, we would be breaking supports, not forming higher lows. Many may not realize it, but it seems they try to outsmart the market, and you can't. Instead, let the market prove itself. As price action traders we are detectives, not warriors. Higher lows as we know often lead to higher highs, especially in a strong market. Since this market is slow and lacks any significant catalyst, the subdegree wave 2 that we are currently in may linger and develop into a small triangle. This condition can lead price back into the low 290s and even into the 280s again. The key to this activity, (as I have written about in other reports) is watching the support levels. 279 and 263 still hold. As long as price stays above these proportionally bullish levels, expecting a breakout in the short term is reasonable. In terms of wave count, subdegree Wave 3 is never the shortest wave, which means if this market enters subdegree Wave 3, in terms of proportion, price reaching the 350s makes sense. This market just needs a catalyst. Maybe, as some have suggested, BTC needs to cool off and those participants will pour into this market. A quick look at the ETH/BTC chart shows price consolidating within a significant support area, which adds to ETH bullish argument even further. A 320 resistance break will confirm subdegree Wave 3 is in progress. In summary, the small higher low formation in the low 290s is a welcome bullish sign, but until a catalyst enters this market, a subdegree Wave 2 triangle is possible before subdegree Wave 3 unfolds. 279 and 263 support levels need to hold in order to maintain this bullish outlook. A breakout above 320 opens the door to my 350 target area, and at this point it is just a matter of time. Keep in mind I am NOT making predictions, anything can happen in this market. I am evaluating price structures, and making comparisons to get an idea of what is more likely to happen. Less experienced participants think they are jut looking at lines and candle sticks. What they are missing is that the patterns formed by these candle sticks provide information about the underling motivations of the buyers and sellers whose orderflow made those candles appear. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
17
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Resistance May Lead To Retrace.ETHUSD Update: The 215 minor support held as price slowly climbs back into the 227 to 240 resistance zone . The 215 support is a higher low structure which is usually a sign of further strength, but the problem at the moment is lack of follow through which can be attributed to low volume . If this market fails to take out the 240 resistance, a retrace back into low 200s is possible. The lack of excitement or volume may be stemming from the BCH price action as one trader pointed out in my previous report. The price action in BCH is the kind of chaos that I expected in the BTC and ETH markets on Tuesday. It has a 300+ dollar range (in 1 day) and is still on the move, while the regulars move with muted enthusiasm. The area to keep an eye on at the moment is the 227 to 240 resistance zone . It is related to the .382 of the recent bear swing that came off the 412 high. The fact that a higher low has formed beneath it is a bullish sign and a push above 241 is more likely which should take price into the next resistance in the 250 to 280 zone. IF price manages to push beyond that, then the 306 resistance area (.618 of broad bear swing) is the next obstacle. In order to get price moving toward these levels, there needs to be a catalyst to kick start the volume back into this market. Something along the lines of "The SEC approves ETH ETF" would get things moving at the speed that we have been accustomed to in this market. Keep in mind IF we do not break the 241 resistance, and price fails here, that would signal short term weakness and likely be followed by a retracement into the low 200s along with consolidating price action. The 215 and 210 supports are likely to break in this scenario because the 241 resistance is of greater magnitude and I would look to the low 200s to low 190s for reversal patterns back up. In summary, slow markets can be caused by many factors like the ones I have highlighted in my reports. Opportunity still exists on the short term, it just requires more patience. If a bullish catalyst appears out of nowhere, this market should push higher beyond the 241 resistance and into the 250 to 280 area before it finds another level to hesitate. These levels serve as good targets if you are looking to maximize short term profits. If price retreats from the current level, it is nothing to panic about in my opinion, as long as it holds the 190s or high 180s. Comments and questions welcome. Anyone interested in seeing a BCH evaluation?
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Higher Low, Where's The Volume?ETHUSD Update: Small retrace off of yesterday's high, with a development of a minor support zone within the 210 to 215 area. Volume is still very low which may have something to do with the seasonality of financial markets in general. Volume needs to pick up in order for this trend to continue. After trading multiple asset classes for years, I learned one thing: summer time trading in the U.S. is always slow whether you are in stocks, futures, even forex at times. These new markets may be feeling that effect as well even though the BTC drama is over. The reason for this seasonal pattern is simple: the entire world goes on vacation in August. Just look at the hotel prices in any of the Caribbean islands. It is peak season. And it's not just Americans driving that demand. I would think by now volume would be back to normal and it's way below (33k? that's low). Keep in mind price can move in a low volume environment, but usually the moves are more random and lack follow through. With that being said, I am still interested in buying. I am watching the 210 inverted support which now has a minor zone going up to 215. This zone is related to the .382 of the most recent upswing that was put in place yesterday. I want to see a price pattern reversal on a smaller time frame such as an hourly or 30 minute to get me into a long. Since volume is low, I will compensate for the additional randomness by only putting on 50% of my normal unit size. If I manage to get long my stop will be around 195 and my first target at 249. If price falls through this minor support, the 200 to 185 support zone is my next area to watch for reversals and depending on the price action there, I can determine my risk at that time if a reversal pattern appears according to my trading plan. In summary, based on structures put in place so far, this market is still strong and healthy, it just needs more volume. I am watching for price to retrace into two particular areas, the 215 to 210 and/or the 200 to 185 for possible long positions. If there are any surprises and price falls below 160, then my bullish evaluation is negated. Otherwise, be patient, strong markets offer plenty of opportunity. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Structure Still Signals Strength.ETHUSD Update: With the big event seemingly out of the way, it appears the outcome was a non event in terms of price action chaos. The higher low that I wrote about in my previous report held and has lead price to a higher high at the 232 area which now puts it within striking range of the 241 resistance (.382 of recent bearish swing). With the compound bullish structure in place, this market is strong and it is reasonable to expect the 241 resistance to be compromised. The only thing that surprised me about these markets was the lack of chaos. I thought a price spike was more than likely, but maybe brokers like Coinbase helped to mute that kind of price action with their market controls (preventing their customers from trading). None of the bullish technicals were compromised, and price action has only further confirmed strength with the current higher high in place at the 230 resistance. If you missed out because of all the uncertainty surrounding the BTC drama, it's okay because there will be plenty of opportunity to buy back into this market. If the market is going to trend back up into the 300s, there will be plenty of retracements along the way that will offer attractive reward to risk in my opinion. The support levels that I am watching closely for a reversal signal are the 210 area support (inverted resistance) and the 190 to 180 support zone. IF price can retrace back to either one of these areas, and I get a validated reversal, I will most likely use 195 as my stop if my entry appears at the 210 area. And a low 170s stop if my entry appears in the 190 to 180 zone. IF the 241 resistance gets taken out, I expect price to find it's next hesitation in the 250 to 280 resistance zone (.618 of recent bear swing). This is a good reference area for short term targets and to measure reward/risk. For example if I get long at 210, and my stop is 195 and my first target is 250, my RR is something like 2.5:1. That is more than acceptable. As bullish as the price action appears, there is always a scenario that can void the whole evaluation. In this case, if price falls below 163 for whatever reason, that will prompt we to reevaluate my bullish outlook and hold off on any long positions at that point. In summary, the hard fork was a non event. Price structure has only signaled further strength and as volume returns to these markets, I believe it is reasonable to expect the current resistance levels to be take out. This doesn't mean go nuts and buy highs, there will be buying opportunities, it is a matter of patience. I am now waiting for a revisit to the 210 level for a possible long entry upon a reversal signal. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
29
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: More Strength, No Volume.ETHUSD Update: Less than a day to go for the big BTC event and this market is continuing to build price structures that imply strength. After the initial push up to 213 and attempted break of the 208 resistance, price has retraced to the 190 to 184 minor support which is an ideal location to form a higher low. This market is presenting a broader higher low which I wrote about previously, (see linked report) and is now in the process of building a minor higher low structure. Higher lows appear when real selling is absent in a market, and typically lead to higher highs. The broader HL followed by this minor HL implies further strength. What make these higher lows even more interesting is where the buyers are expressing the most interest and that is in the support zones that are related to the .618 of each respective swing. If the BTC drama was not happening tomorrow, I would be buying into these structures. Reason I am not buying: There is extreme lack of volume which removes some credibility from these formations. BTC has also been showing technical signs of strength (see linked report) but all the analysis in the world will not be able to foresee any fundamental surprises that can cause wild swings in both directions. Plus there is no confirmation at the moment that meets the conditions of my trading plan. Another push beyond the 208 resistance, and this market is likely to reach the 230 to 240 resistance zone. A break of that compromises the recent bearish swing and sets the stage for the 300s. Keep in mind the kind of swing that can occur upon tomorrows news can be extreme and it is very possible that wide stops can be taken out. That's why if I did take a position now, I would not place a stop until after the wild ride is over. In order to do this, you must be willing to lose your entire investment. And if the market goes straight up, and you feel like you missed the bottom, do not worry, strong and healthy markets offer plenty of opportunity to profit, you do not need to buy the bottom. As long as the uptrend stays intact there will be more swings to buy. On the low side, if this market does NOT go below 136 and finds support at a higher price after tomorrows news, I would see that as a sign of strength as well. A break of the 136 low is a negative sign, and that would prompt me to reevaluate my bullish outlook. In summary, this market, just like BTC is presenting price structures that indicate strength. Higher lows typically lead to higher highs. The key is to see how this market reacts and settles after tomorrow's big event. If the support levels are tested and hold up, that will provide further evidence that buyers are in control and it is then just a matter of defining risk. I won't be able to do that effectively until after the big event. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
10
JPY losing steam, EUR getting strongerHey traders, here is the setup I am watching this week. After watching the JPY surge, and now seeing the EUR start to gain some momentum, I decided to put these two currencies together to see what happens this week. As you can see, we have some divergence in the MACD, as well as a higher-high and higher-low, which is great confirmation that price may go higher, combined with the strong versus weak analysis. I'll be placing my stop at 119.5, and my take profit at 122.0, a nice key level that price has hit recently without any trouble. This trade gives me a nice 2.6 to 1 reward to risk ratio. As always, plan your trades and trade your plan!
Long
by ImproveYourTrades
Facebook Inc FB Head & Shoulders Cypher HH and HLFacebook for weeks now has been creating higher highs and higher lows in the strong uptrend. Being bullish on this stock we would look to get in with the bulls. Lets look at the daily time frame. Here we see a beautiful head and shoulders formation. Once it hits the neckline Price would reach around $98. Adding confluence there is also a bullish cypher formation which may possible form. Buying at the price range $92 - $97 would be a wonderful spot to get in on the trend.
NASDAQ:META
by Jnwsk
1
Bet on the support reboundThis trade aims at the short-term rebound from the historical low. Since June 07, short-sellers initiated a selling force to test JD's the 52-week low. The price was driven down,but no volume followed. However, when the price was reaching the 52-week low, there are people collecting the dimes, on June 16. Maybe the short-sellers were covering here. I think it is a good bet on a short-term rebound. Here is my plan: 1. Stop Loss at 19. 2. Profit taking at 23 or Time Exit in 5 days.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by cwho2090