US30 34,500 SWING TRADE BUY PRICE Looking at past price action on the 6, 4 & 3-month chart, I can see the price has pulled back to 78.6% fib levels in July, Aug & September which are the last 2 months in the financial year and 1st month in the new financial year in September then after September during Oct, Nov, Dec price has accelerated bullish with huge engulfing candles (Santa Clause rally) following past price action patterns. Currently with the fundamental condition of the market and interest rate cuts pending for September/October/November Q1 (Q4 of 2024) the following 6 months starting from mid-July 2024 have been bearing as price is oversold in a premium market which isn't giving room for more buyer to enter the market at a fair price before the FED rate cuts and indices and stock start the next bullish run for 4 years in the market cycle, so price need to sell into a discounted market below 37,776 which is above the 4month IMB and 4month bull OB.
From my analysis price would need to pull back and fill the 4-month IMB and draw towards the 34,500 (safe price) area (32,742 is my 78.6 swing trade price) price there is a monthly bullish OB and 3,444 pip of IMB to be filled. I'm not expecting the price to run directly towards this price area but it will eventually get there over time or to 50% of the IMB at 36,400 or 36,250 (QL)
Highertimeframeconfluence
Gartley 222 or ABCD at 78% retracementI am placing an order where the red box is. Entry is the upper side and stop loss is the opposite end.
Placing my order behind a previous low where naturally stops will reside - this low is also a previous daily bar low. My entry and where the AB=CD ends is at the 20 Daily Moving Average so expect a bounce from there.
The fans of harmonic patterns can recognize this structure as a Gartley 222.
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$IIVI HTF ACB LongWeekly Swing Watchlist
Rough trading week with some strong downside volatility in my positions. Can really see this week going either way at this point.
#1 Secondary Watch
$IIVI HTF ACB Long
Monthly - 0.618 fib
Weekly - Support/Descending triangle/Wave 4 ABC pullback
Daily - Support/Decel/MACD/Low test
LTF - 1Hr Symmetrical Triangle/MACD divergence
Entry - Waiting for break and close above 1HR 50 ema
RR - 6 (previous M/W highs)
B Grade setup - Needs better LTFs to get upgraded. Things still look like they could go either way + there is a fair bit of consolidation on the daily.
Additionally on Watch:
Other:
2 stocks on this weeks development needed list
10 stocks on monthly watchlist (mostly in Tech sector)
Live Trades:
$OEG - Full Risk
$VUZI - Full Risk
$Z - 0.75% Risk
$IIVI HTF ACB LongWeekly Swing Watchlist
Pretty slow looking week. Will be interesting to see whether the volatility comes back or the money printer is out in full swing.
#1 Secondary Watch
$IIVI HTF ACB Long
Monthly - 0.618 fib
Weekly - Support/Descending triangle
Daily - Support/Decel/MACD
LTF - Waiting for break of 4HR 50 ema/1HR trend line
RR - 3 (previous M/W highs)
Decent potential set up, nothing more nothing less.
Additionally on Watch:
Secondary:
$MDLZ HTF ACB L
Other:
3 stocks on this weeks development needed list
21 stocks on monthly watchlist (mostly in Tech & Health Care sectors)
Live Trades:
$OEG - Full Risk
$MASS - Full Risk
$VUZI - Full Risk
$Z - 0.75% Risk
bullish top down analysis according to sessional tendency February is bullish for the AUD. COT report and graph show the Commercial are silently increase their longs and close their short .. price action show the bullishness of Audusd because of high demand on institutional level (daily ob ).. best of luck check my previous analysis