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DAX Channeling - Easter present?The DAX has been channeling in a 400 pip wide band for the past 2 months. To make matters interesting, the highest high ever of the DAX has already been approached, already bouncing back just 15 pips away from it! So the question arises: will the DAX break through the channel or not? If the DAX REMAINS in the channel (as I am hoping), then the following targets and stop-loss arise: Target 1 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 61.80%: 12,201.5 (+107.5 pips) Target 2 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 38.20%: 12,267.8 (+173.7 pips) Target 3 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 0.00%: 12,375.2 (+281.1 pips) Super Conservative Stop-Loss at Fibonacci Extension Level 138.20%: 11986.7 (-107.4 pips) Normal Stop-Loss: 11,230.0 (-64.1 pips) Super Conservative Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:2.6 at Target 3. Normal Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:4.4 at Target 3. I suspect there to be strong resistance at the highest high ever (12,390.75). I will enter a long trade if the DAX bounces off the lower channel boundary and rises nicely. If it continues channeling, I believe Target 1 will be met after maximum 5 full days, Target 2 after max. 9 full days and Target 3 after max. 12 full days after the bounce. What do you think? Further thoughts: I like how the first border-to-border move's Fibonacci extension level of 161.80% at the beginning of the channel matches almost perfectly with the second border-to-border move's 100% level. That same first border-to-border's move's 112.7% level matches the next top-border bounce perfectly .
TVC:DEU40Long
by cluttermelon
Upside potential for Rusell 2000 Index from Past PerformanceRecovery in U.S. show up slower than expecting, seeing from Jobless Claim report increased to 276,000 against analysis forecast median of 263,250 jobs which is a greater numbers than Feb 2016 report. However the incremental is still below 300,000 which is an acceptable rate. Counting from Jackson Hole Fed's meeting last week statement was given clear of timeline of interest rate increase in year 2017 which will be monitored every quarter and rate holding in Apr to June 2016 sending U.S. dollar index down towards end of statement. This resulting of sending stock market upwards DJIA approaching last height where it went before collapsing last round of trading. NASDAQ index has been booming upwards slope as well leaving where Biotech index laggard. The Russell 2000 Index follows the trend if you look at the graph presenting from year 2000 to year 2016 highest record, at the moment of trading today vs last height giving 16.38% upside for trading area but why Russell 2000 index would recovery better than DJIA or those big caps. It is because the small caps index has more volatility and potential of company growth better than big caps. The company are new to the market seeing high potential of expanding market share and it normally not reacting plunged from market sentiment.
ILong
by ausvin