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JICPT| Crude oil approaching key level, likely to rebound!Hello crude oil traders and investors. Days ago, I've published an idea titled 'Where could crude oil go this time from the big picture'. I mentioned $114 is the possible target. Recently, crude oil fell on the rising covid-19 cases in Europe(Austria partial lockdowns) , and potential release of Japanese oil reserves. The circulated news sparked concern of both oversupply and weak demand. We've been through this one year ago, right? So familiar. The difference is the high vaccination rate in Europe and US compared to last year. So I'm expecting low hospitalization and death rate compared to last time. As it's a technical analysis, Let's put aside the news and focus on the chart. Based on the linked idea, I drew red line around key structure around 74.8 that was previous high created in Oct.,2018. Market drop on the shale oil and rising inventories. Now, crude oil pulled back from $85 with formation of series of bearish red candles on the weekly. This week is crucial for buyers. If weekly candle is small basing or one with long tail, reversal is likely to happen and price may start another rally again. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by JICPT
September 10th 2021 BTC AnalysisPrelude: BTC has been on quite the bullish impulse which has been a great ride however on September 7th the market experienced a strong bearish impulse which broke the most immediate bullish market structure. Although PA has been finding support above the Daily 200 SMA until today. Current situation: PA has invalidated both the most immediate level of bullish market structure and has closed below the 200 D-SMA which tickles my bearish senses. 3 Possible scenarios: 1. Today's close has put PA right around the initial basing area after breaking out from the summer-long accumulation range. This area provides both structural support and is the last structural RSI low that could offer a hidden bullish divergence. A bullish rejection from this level would reinforce a hyper-bullish market narrative for me. 2. The more probably scenario IMO is a fall further down towards the 41.5k area to retest the range highs of the summer-month accumulation range which is in confluence with the 200 D-EMA (which acted as previous range high resistance + support too). This would be the most logical place for bulls to defend. 3. Breaking back into the summer-month accumulation range would open up the range lows again (about a -25% move from here) which would give the bulls a last chance to defend before a medium-term bear market is in the cards. How am I playing it: I am not looking to cash out any of my spot holdings as I firmly believe accumulation is the name of the game with crypto. However, I will be looking to hedge my holdings (and earn on USDT) by hedging my spot holds with low-leverage derivative shorts. I will look to enter off a bearish rejection of the 200 D-SMA. I have earned enough on this bullish impulse to risk a small hedge here. SL is sitting above structural resistance around the 21 D-EMA.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by mikas_h
1
You can hate it, but dont bet against it.BITSTAMP:XRPUSD XRP has always been a late boomer and considering all the FUD and the mist around it, it would be smart to play a contrarian role and just to be ready for the possibility of “melting faces” to the upside (with a small chunk of disposable capital). It is massively lagging behind other major cryptos, but for us “veterans” who did not enter the market in the last month, this is something which we are quite familiar with. Now, of course, there is no rule about history repeating, but we can sure learn from it. I will not speak on the topic of SEC lawsuit, please do check Legal Briefs youtube channel, where attorney Jeremy Hogan gives more clarity on the matter and a lot of useful insight. I strongly believe that all possible known facts are already priced in and readable on the chart. And I am here to provide you with what I think are the cruicial levels on possible future price actions of XRP. XRP/BTC Looking back: * All major bull parabolic breakouts of XRP happened late in relation to other major cryptos; * All parabolic breakouts on USD pair happened in strong relation to the BTC pair, when we either had a strong breakout or we touched-down 0.00001490 level before powering up rocket engines (also corelated with 21 day EMA – dotted purple line on XRPBTC chart) * We have strong/major resistance on BTC pair at the green line. Roughly 0.00009049 level. * We have minor resistance on BTC pair just above 0.000045 level. * The accumulation range which we were mostly “stuck in” throughout last 3 years is the same as consolidation range after 2017 bull run from less than a cent to more than 30 cents per USD. If we touch it again, I will be opening new positions. Target range is betwen 0.29 and 0.37 USD. I must point out, that another drop to that levels is possible (less and less by hour and hour as total crypto market is showing some decent strenght at the moment of writing). * A lot of people are focusing at 0.55 and 0.60 levels, but I would like to bring more attention to higher time frame price action. Looking at the chart, the orange line is cruicial, as a daily close above 0.702 gives us a much higher probability of continuation higher (actual parabola up) Looking forward: * As stated above we need a breakout on USD (0.70) and BTC (0.00001490) pair to actually have a chance of having parabolic bull run like we had in the past. * Any dips bellow 0.37 on USD pair are for buying. * If we go bellow 0.21 it will most probably be continuing “melting faces” to the downside and we have to step back and re-asses general situation. I do think thats scenario is very likely. * I strongly believe that, if we get a daily close above 0.70 and we stay above, we will be witnessing similar parabolic moves to the upside (ignoring 1 dollar mark), possibly reaching more towards 2 USD and above with a considerable shakeout targeting the dotted purple line at aroun 1.18 and if that one holds, we are most probably shooting up higher to around 2.75 area. * We must actively monitor price action and apply Elliot wave theory to see what possible upside targets actually are, a lot of that depends on XRP/BTC pair. The crypto market has drastically changed in the last year or so where big portion of market capitalisation from total is going towards progressive new projects (De-Fi, NFT mostly) from direction of “dino” coins, such as EOS, XTZ, XRP, LTC, ETC and similar. You can understand this better by checking respectable pairs of those coins with BTC, where BTC valuation is in strong decline in relation to their USD valuation. That is also why, I sincerely think that touching the green line (0.00009049) on XRPBTC pair is the best possible scenario, which most likely wont happen. I am more leaning towards more conservative narrative of being happy, if we actually settle in roughly half-way through upper range of the historical channel at around 0.00005. I hate giving predictions, but for better understandings: if BTC has a blow off top at around 100k and XRP reaches its parabolic top at Bitcoins dead cat bounce after that at hypothetically speaking around 80k, that gives XRP estimate valuation of 4 USD per XRP (80k x 0.00005). So you see, everything depends on the relation of XRPUSD and XRPBTC and that “love” relationship really needs some therapy. The juicy summary: * Best possible scenario: 7.00 – 8.00 XRP/USD * Conservative/optimal scenario 4.00 – 5.00 XRP/USD * Most highly scenario is getting that juicy 1.18 XRP/USD * There is a chance that the rocket engine will fail and we will top out in range betwen 0.70 and 1.18 * There is little downside in comparison to the upside nevertheless. To determine which path will materialise, lets keep our minds sharp and count those waves as they print out on charts, as we go. BITSTAMP:XRPUSD And dont forget, “when you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable...must be the truth".
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by eriboz
2
USDCHF Long with 2 confluences (Zero Indicators)Confluences: 1: Weekly chart trendline breakout. 2. Trend is bullish with price making Higher Lows and New Highs. Entry: Price is over extended at this point in time. This creates the risk of price pulling back to retest the previous high or the trendline while at the same time creating new higher low. This when we can start looking for entries and reassess the risk reward ratio for this particular trade. Will be looking to take entries later next week if the setup is till valid. Will be looking to holf this position for 3-4 week or until target is reached (Which ever comes first)
Long
by NDOBObanks
EURUSD Short with 3 Listed Confluences (Naked Charts)Confluence: 1. Weekly Chart Trendline breakout and close. 2. Weekly Chart Double Top pattern formation (Not textbook style double top pattern). Price seems to have failed to create a new high. 3. Trend is bearish as price is making Lower Highs and New Lows. Entry: The way the market is positioned on the weekly chart shows this is a fresh breakout. 70-80% of the time, traders who enter straight after a breakout pattern occurs are likely to get stopped out. We will be looking to take the trade towards the middle of next week (Wednesday) as price might push back up to retest the trendline so it is important to wait and see how the price moves after the breakout. This will also give us a chance to reassess the risk reward ratio of the trade. Will be holding this trade between 3 - 4 week or until take profit is reached (Whichever comes first).
Short
by NDOBObanks
1
BITCOIN. Yearly CAM. road to 100-200k? Cycle comparisonThis chart takes the 2015 - 2018 and compares it to 2020-2023 Camarilla levels from daily up to yearly. use previous time frames prices action and plot next levels on the first of the years. (Example last 2020 Jan 1st. It plotted H3 and L3 (top and then bottom during covid scare) which is interested because on Camarilla pivots . H3 to L3 is just the projected range from the algos. I guess it is a good thing we had some fud to "explain them". How though.... did on January first. 2020.... did camarilla plot the H5 which was the breakout upside target... that got hit exactly on the last day of the year. Even though it was plotted 365 days earlier during supposed bear covid times. I am not here to convince you that the precedence of algos in the markets being more meaningful than institutions. However, These levels and their practice still get plays, reactions, and reached. Where are we now? We finished last year at H5... had a retrace after the yearly close. and to my surprise. We broke up and OVER the new yearly H4. Generally, in camarilla levels, that means to aim for the breakout target H5... which is waaaay up there. 200+K SO I sat down. I looked at all these yearly levels. and looked at the last time this series of bullish after the bullish event has happened based on the self plotting levels the camarilla system has come up with for the yearly levels. I was very shocked to find myself considering (where before I compared this year to 2017/2018) but I now am considering that we are actually in 2016. of a cycle. that will potentially see 110k this year and perhaps 200+ in 2023. That is if the habits and levels operate and the exponential growth factors turn out to be real. not trolling. I myself and normally a bear at heart. Actually, there is cause to be nervous despite those targets because of how price operates on these Red levels which I made a not of. Take a look. Take a read. Pay close attention to the price. its relationship with the levels. and the order of events. (like looking in a mirror if you can wrap your mind outgoing pivot by pivot and get bogged down with price considerations) from 2015 and early 2016.. and 2020 and early 2021 so far. I hope you enjoy the thought. good luck
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Gunslinger2005
4