BITCOIN is new goldbitcoin and gold behaving similarly against high yield bonds
Bitcoin higher when highyield falls
Gold higher when highyield falls
Highyield
22% bond yields was the bottom for stocksin 2008, high yield b rated bonds went as high 22% in the peak of panic. This also coincided with the peak of panic for stocks. Quality high growth potential stocks sold for fantastic prices and valuations.
And it makes sense to not make sense this way.
Bonds are debt, and must get paid first as part of normal business operation.
Equity gets the excess profits later as potential dividends or stock buybacks.
Debt and equity and the 2 main funding sources for business.
Stock investors cannot ignore interest rates and the funding markets.
SP:SPX NASDAQ:BND NASDAQ:TLT NASDAQ:IEF NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA AMEX:VTI
5 ways to play the current macro environmentWhy We Rallied
It's been a strong few months for the S&P 500, which is up about 13% from the October lows. There were five reasons for the rally:
1) P/E ratios got attractive, especially for small-to-mid caps.
2) Inflation peaked, which historically has sometimes marked the bottom for stocks.
3) Global liquidity turned upward. Every major bond market was pricing a central bank pivot, and the big central banks (particularly Japan and China) added about $1 trillion to their balance sheets.
4) Economic data remained surprisingly strong, which raised hopes of a "soft landing."
5) Possibly there was a bit of forced buying due to a "short squeeze."
Why the Rally Is Probably Over
However, I believe we've now reached an inflection point where these tailwinds will turn into headwinds.
1) The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 P/E ratios are once again looking high (although S&P 400 and S&P 600 still look cheap). (See this report from Ed Yardeni.)
2) Inflation is no longer surprising to the downside. The last couple prints have been exactly in line with forecasts, and leading indicators of inflation have been creeping back up. See, for instance, this chart of service sector wages, this chart of copper prices, and this Goldman Sachs forecast of crude oil prices. This is partly because of the global liquidity boost and continued deficit spending , and it's partly because of China ending its Covid-zero policy and reopening its economy. (China is the largest importer of crude and the second-largest importer of liquified natural gas in the world.)
3) With inflation set to stay high, liquidity has tightened a lot. The market is no longer pricing a Fed pivot , and analysts suggest the central bank liquidity boost may be over . Stocks have now gotten significantly higher than liquidity measures would predict , which suggests they may need to come down a little.
4) Economic data are deteriorating. Leading indicators have been pointing toward recession for months , but consumer savings and a glut of job openings have helped delay it. We're definitely starting to see weakness, though. Credit card debt has soared to an all-time high , we're seeing more late payments , and the housing market is cooling off fast , with inventories of unused construction materials piling up . We've seen "soft landing" hype before: in 2000 and 2007 , just before those recessions hit. Unless the Fed pivots immediately, it's probably not "different this time."
5) The short squeeze is over for large cap tech, with most of the shorts already forced out.
Five Ideas for How to Reposition
How to trade a coming recession?
1) The obvious trade is long bonds, short stocks. Bond market valuations are very attractive relative to stocks, with bond yields only a little below the S&P 500's earnings yield, and bond markets having perhaps gotten too hawkish relative to policy rates. Given the historical correlation between 10-year yields and S&P 500 valuations, the gap that has opened between them may imply an opportunity for a statistical arb. Either stock valuations should drop or bond yields should rise. Historically, in a recessionary environment, the bond market has tended to recover first, and the stock market second. So now would be the time to long those bonds.
However , it should be noted that this recessionary environment is an unusual one in a lot of ways. Stocks have already sold off a lot, and valuations are pretty mixed. Bonds should perform well if we get a deflationary recession that allows to Fed to lower rates, but a stagflationary recession might force the Fed to keep rates high even as the economy stumbles. Thus, it may be worth getting a little more specific with our trade. Here are some other ideas:
2) Long investment-grade bonds, short high-yield bonds. If recession is coming, then high-yield spreads are probably way too low . It's possible that high-yield bond rates will rise even as investment-grade, Treasury, and policy rates fall.
3) Long high-quality small- and mid-caps, short low-quality large caps. In my opinion, large cap tech is still way too crowded. I wouldn't want to short Microsoft right now, given the success of Bing AI. But I'd be willing to take a swing at Amazon, Apple, and Netflix as long as I could balance the risk by longing some cheap, quality smalls and mids on the other side. In my opinion, the size factor is ripe for disruption. If you'd asked me two years ago, I would have said that AI would most benefit large cap tech. Now I think it will most benefit smalls. What changed between now and then is that AI went from being the exclusive domain of big companies to being publicly available at shockingly low cost. This happened way faster than I ever would have guessed, and you better believe that small, agile companies will capitalize on the opportunities provided by access to AI!
4) Long cash to buy the dip on energy stocks. Energy historically has struggled in a recession, so it's quite likely that energy stocks will see some downside soon. However, the current free cash flow yield on energy stocks is quite high , and the sector trades at 10x forward P/E . Meanwhile, investment in the sector is still much too low . I believe there will be a decade-long structural bull market in energy due to constrained supply, but that there will probably be some recessionary pain first. Meanwhile, money market funds offer a really high return on cash. My Fidelity money market is giving me almost 4%. Ain't nothing wrong with just collecting that money market rate and waiting for energy stocks to dip for the buy and hold.
With retail investor inflows at an all-time high , I believe the current market environment offers a good opportunity for savvy bears to execute some well-constructed long-short trades. If you look at how the smart money is positioned, it's pretty much the opposite of retail positioning here. There will be a time to get bullish on US large cap stocks, but we probably need to see some weakening of coincident economic indicators like employment first. (Stocks tend to do best when unemployment rates are high .) Remember, market positioning beats market timing, but ideally you could do a little of both!
Thanks for reading, and please share your ideas in the comments below!
HY-IG OAS Spread Significant Negative CorrelationHY= high yield option adjusted spread
IG= investment grade option adjusted spread
HY-IG Option Adjusted Spread showing significant inverse/negative correlation to the S&P500.
When the HY-IG spread (white) rises we see the S&P500 (yellow) fall. The inverse is also true. Spread is currently trending down and SPX is rising which could be indicative of a short term shift towards a ‘risk on’ sentiment.
Were the HY-IG spread’s trend to shift directions from down to up, we could infer that SPX would shortly after begin to trend in the opposite direction based on recent behavior. (not financial advice)
Gauging Market Sentiment on Risk Using the IG/HY SpreadWhen the spread between High-Yield (HY) debt and Investment Grade (IG) debt contracts or expands, this can be perceived as the market demanding more or less compensation for the risk it perceives to be present in owning the HY debt against the IG corporate debt. (HY-IG) = Risk On/Risk Off market sentiment.
Generally speaking HY debt a.k.a. Junk Debt, is considered more risky than IG debt. Because of this increased risk, the market demands a higher yield for taking on HY debt, also known as a ‘risk premium’ or ‘premium’ over the alternative investment opportunities the market provides.
This yield premium on HY/JunkBonds can be viewed as ‘extra incentive’ for bids to take on the ‘riskier debt’. When this spread (white) contracts, we can see that the market (yellow) has a tendency to go up (risk on) and when the spread (white) expands we can see the market (white) has a tendency to go down (risk off). This is only one of many indicators I use to gauge ‘market risk sentiment’ and I thought I would share it. (Not financial advice.)
AUD/JPY High Yield sell-offFX:AUDJPY
Witam,
Sentyment : risk-off envoirement, inflationary.
Fundamentalia : migracja kapitału - wyprzedaż High Yield (CAD, NZD, AUD), kupno save-havens.
Chart pattern : Head & Shoulders.
TF : H4-H1.
Wejście : po retescie neckline + price action + MACD confirmation + CCI 20 0 line overbought retest.
Wyjście : luzowanie polityki monetarnej FED (interest rates reveral), czyli okolice mid 2023.
Sorry za polglish, ale tak jest łatwiej. Miłego tradingu ;)
Have corporate bonds bottomed?The Corporate bond market got extremely oversold and it bounced without the Fed having to pivot. Essentially the market got to 2013-2018 levels, and bounced nicely at the old support. But we still don't know whether the bottom is in or now, as there are more questions that need to be answered, like: Does the market expect the Fed to reverse course soon? Does the market think the bottom is in for bond yields? Does it think inflation has peaked?
In my opinion the market did the tightening itself without the Fed. The Fed did a mistake for not raising rates and ending QE faster, however they were right on their approach to go slowly, as one way or another inflation would slow down. By inflation slowing down down I don't mean that prices will go down, just that prices will go up a lot less than they did over the last 1-2 years. At the same time I do believe that as inflation comes down, it is possible that we get to see the Fed say that they will pause their hikes after raising them to around 2% and will let their balance sheet roll off on its own.
Essentially higher interest rates, lower asset prices, tight fiscal and monetary policy, and already high energy prices are crushing demand. The Fed was/is behind the curve, but as the curve seems to be now moving to the direction of the Fed. To a large extend their objective has been achieved, as this correction was similar to the 2018 correction, only that this time around the correction was welcomed when back then it wasn't.
Now I don't really think the bottom is in for corporate bonds, however I also don't think they are going to roll over very quickly. If the food & energy crisis gets worse, I have no doubt that these will get crushed. It just seems that in the short-medium term things will cool down a bit and part of them Fed's goals have been achieved. The US economy remains fairly strong and its corporations are in a fairly good shape, despite everything that has been going in the world over the last few years.
Having said all that I don't want to be a buyer of HYG at 80. At those levels I think it is better to short and aim for 77-78, and then if the price action looks decent, go long at those levels. The bounce is too sharp for it to have legs to go higher immediately. I'd expect more chop in the 75-81 area before the market decides whether it is going to go higher or lower.
Credit - HYG ShortIdea for HYG:
- Top of the range, rising wedge.
- Short TP1: 77.
- PT 67.
GLHF
- DPT
looks like we challenge the old highs of #HEX vs #BTCor we blow on right through?
we shall see
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lower APY's for shorter terms
higher APY's for larger terms.
1 token would turn into nearly 6 tokens at that APY for 5.4 years.
with likely #price appreciation
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$HYD with a negative outlookRSI gave the earlier signal with the bearish crossover, MACD did the additional confirmation. It was important to see the price action as well. Recent highs were sold and Yesterday we finished in negative territory. Volume spike suggests that there was profit closing with an attempt to buy the dip. Selling is minimal, though if the picture continues to deteriorate we may see active sellers here.
ORBEX: GBPCHF, AUDJPY - Tradetalk & Brexit Signals Mixed! In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #gbpchf and #audjpy minors!
Both pairs are showing an identical pattern and are indeed influenced by:
AUDJPY
- Tradewar tensions but latest from positive developments on the back of a potential partial deal Chinese are willing to do
- Positive Home Loans in AU and negative BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index figures
GBPCHF
- Blury Brexit developments with the risk of an election following an extension increasing
- UK-EU talks not looking good despite EU announcing otherwise
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
NYMT BUY, safe high yield dividend stockWe chose this REIT as it has low P/E ratio 9.31 and price is flat however it is good to time entry.
Great opportunity to buy this stock right now as RSI hits oversold territory. Since 2017 this stock is trading between 6.8 USD - 5.45 USD. We recommend you to buy this stock as it has dividend yield 13.47% per year and current price is appropriate for the first entry. We can clearly see how the stock fluctuactes between quarters and falling after dividend pay out. We recommend second entry in the mid of October and selling after Q4 dividend or holding it.
$HYG - High Yield Bonds Sending a Sign?As can be seen on its weekly chart, the $HYG appears to be sending a warning signal. On a technical basis, a "Shooting Star" pattern has emerged, coupled with negative divergence in the SMI and RSI indicators.
To us, it appears that high yield bonds are sending a signal that its rallying may be getting a little stretched.
We would caution investors to tread carefully and take some money off the table if in this space.
JNK / W1 : Overbought & Divergent... Risk down the corner ?NOTE : The low risk trading area reamains higher in the context channel (the gray ribbon) but we're signaling overbought on the trendchannel... This may be a concern if the market reverses here... Cause reversing on trendchannel means there will pbly be a trend trade to come right after... Not the best case scenario for stock though if junks were about to break down the major support trendline.
SIDE NOTE : Some analysts say that there is a dangerous bubble in corporate credit... So this may add to the technical view seen here. If anything goes wrong in the sector, junks may be the first to show signs of tension...
CONCLUSION : It's not something to trade just like that, more likely something to bare in mind for the coming months... as a potential systematic risk trigger that could cause hell of a panic wave...
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Kindly,
Phil
Dominion upward trend for couple monthsThe price is still in correction stage after post income and people are undecided. However, dividend is increased by $0.05 compared to last year and it is almost dividend date. This should push the undecided people to buy. Also I notice recently energy and natural gas company price dropped but this does not and I think this is the lowest for these few months. I should go up to $75ish before ex dividend date 3/1/2017 but may go even higher afterward. Even if it drops before or after ex-dividend date, the following month or two will be followed by a upward correction and break even at the worst case in 2 months from now. I am predicting this move base on the past waves especially the MACD line. If MACD blue line can hit zero it will continue to go up! Estimate >4% increase in price in 1-2 months.
WDC: Potential long term long at old support levelWDC has great valuation and yields here, I entered a half risk position here using a 3 ATR stop loss. Will be looking to add if it shows signs of strength.
You can see how the key earning support levels from 2009 to 2012 align in this zone, and how good the valuation is.
WDC is well positioned in its market, and has hit a level where I estimate it can see institutional buying appear.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
It doesn't look that fun to close below the purple line (DVY)High Yield Equity (DVY) broke below the since-2009 purple line today.
