Get started

Hike

Surprised by Fed hinting at another rate hike this year?The big story of the day is of course the Fed signaling one more rate hike this year. At the conclusion of its FOMC meeting a few hours ago, The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, but projected another rate increase by the end of the year. Additionally, higher for longer is probably the new reality, with projections showing rates falling only half a percentage point in 2024 compared to the full percentage point of cuts anticipated at the meeting in June. Financial markets had widely expected that the Fed would leave rates unchanged, but the revision to its projected cuts has caught markets off-guard. The biggest mover of the day; GBPUSD was doubling impacted by the Fed decision and UK Inflation Rate Slowing Further to 1-1/2-Year Low (to 6.7% in August 2023 from 6.8% in the previous month, falling below the market consensus of 7.0%.) The GBPUSD moved from around 1.238 to a low at 1.233 (but not before some indecision and a shot up to 1.238 within the first hour). In the end, the price fell below the pre-decision (panicked?) low. The current price trades at 1.234 just above that level, but an eye will be kept on this new short-term resistance for the downside prospects of this pair
by BlackBull_Markets
China is going to do something different this timeChina will print, there is no way around it, at the same time the dollar will fall, I do not know how they will pull that rabbit out of the hat but they will, China will get richer while the street americans get stiffed by tough financial conditions and high rates as it is right now, chinese money is going to push-up the SP500, SP500 at this time and place is a global market, not only american anylonger... does not matter how financial condition will get strict in america, international big and smart money will get in anyway, It is a new world order...
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by awesomenewsforyou2
US2000 BEARISH SCENARIOAll focused on the forthcoming remarks by Jerome Powell, set to disrupt the situation tomorrow, which could potentially shift investor sentiment from buying to selling. The US2000, also known as the Russell 2000, represents a small-cap index that follows behind the larger indices such as DJIA, S&P, and Nasdaq. In recent months, the Russell has demonstrated weaker performance in contrast to its counterparts. The impending increase in interest rates might introduce new challenges to the market. Indicated by a symmetrical parabolic pattern, there's a suggestion that a bearish trend could extend around 130-150 points, mirroring the height of the curve. Nevertheless, the equation "Powell = Power" still holds true. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by legacyFXofficial
The unpredictability of the FOMC rates decisionWhat you would learn in university: An interest rate hike increases demand, which would lead to higher prices. What you actually see in the markets: The impact on price is not only dependent on the interest rate decision but also the message and sentiment during the press conference, priced in scenarios, future market expectations, economic projections, current price trends, global environment... Overnight, the FOMC has just taken rates to a 22-year high at 5.50% and indicated further increases in September and possibly November (data dependent), and yet the immediate reaction is further weakness in the DXY. Over the previous 6 rate decision releases (5 hikes and 1 hold), the reaction on the DXY has been mixed, either spiking up briefly before fading lower or showing little to no movement. Scalping the news event is getting harder and potentially less profitable (unlike back in the years with Chair Bernanke). The approach short-medium traders should consider adopting is to let the noise clear out and only look to get their trades in days after the event. What do you think?
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
4
AUD Bucks Trend after Fed Hikes Rates to 22-Year High The Federal Reserve has decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, marking the highest level seen in 22 years. Market participants widely anticipated this move as the Fed resumed its tightening campaign. In their statement, the Fed expressed a positive outlook on economic growth, acknowledging that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, which is a subtle improvement from the previous characterization of "modest" growth. The focus on consumer prices remained, with the Fed emphasizing that inflation continues to be elevated, and policymakers will closely monitor the risks it poses, mirroring their assessment from the previous month. Following the announcement of the Fed's decision, the U.S. dollar retreated across the board. This movement in the dollar contributed to a boost in gold prices and an immediate focus is now on the $1,973 minor resistance and $1,978 further above. An exception to the general trend is the Australian dollar, which bucked the trend after data revealed that domestic inflation slowed more than expected in the second quarter. This decrease in inflation reduced pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement further policy tightening measures. The data showed that Australia's consumer price index rose by 6%, a deceleration from the 7% recorded in the first quarter and below the market's expectations of 6.2%. Consequently, the Australian dollar weakened to approximately $0.676.
by BlackBull_Markets
How to position for yield curve un-inversions!It has been some time since we delved into the intricate world of interest rates and their prospective trajectories. With the yield curve experiencing significant movement in recent weeks, it's high time we reassess our stance. Following a staggering 500 basis points increase, we now find ourselves potentially nearer to the end of the rate hike cycle than ever before. The recent hawkish pause announced in the last meeting has left market participants on tenterhooks, pondering the future course of action in the ongoing battle against inflation. Given the downward trend in inflation and the possibility of at least one more rate hike, 'real' yields have ascended beyond the 0% level, as depicted in the chart above. Since the 2010s, real yields have consistently struggled to surpass the 1.2% level. However, the recent lower inflation prints place the 'real' yield at a new decade high of 1.25%. So, how does the yield curve inversion behave during periods of real yields? Interestingly, in three of the past four instances, the curve 'un-inverted' once real yields exceeded 0. Of greater significance is the yield curve's response after the Fed cuts rates. Since 1989, this has been a key signal of the yield curve un-inversion. Given this event's proximity and the current 2Y-10Y yield curve, we contemplate the optimal strategy to capitalize on this likely un-inversion. One approach is to examine all possible inversion combinations between the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year yields. All these combinations present an inverted curve, except for the 10Y-30Y segment. Upon dissecting the analysis to focus solely on 2-year inversions, we observe the following: The 2-year inversion is generally the steepest, with the 2Y-10Y ranking as the most inverted segment of the yield curve. All inversions anchored with the 2Y are at their all-time highs, plunging us into uncharted waters. In contrast, the 5-year and 10-year yields exhibit more subdued movements. Their inversions have yet to reach all-time highs, and the overall range of movement is relatively restrained. Therefore, to maximize returns on the un-inversion move, one could position to short either the most inverted section of the curve, the 2Y-10Y, or the 2Y-30Y, which typically experiences the largest movement upon un-inversion. Handily, CME has the Micro Treasury Yield Futures, quoted in yield terms, which allows us to express this view in a straightforward manner allaying the complications with DV01 calculation. By creating a short yield spread position, we are not merely speculating on the direction of individual yields but rather on the relative movement between them. Trading the yield spread instead of just an outright position in a single part of the curve also protects us from parallel shifts in the yield curve, especially in volatile times like these. This strategy takes advantage of the yield curve dynamics, particularly the inversion trend we've been observing. We create the short yield spread position by taking a short position in the Micro 2-Yr Yield Futures and a long position in the Micro 10-Yr Yield Futures or Micro 30-Yr Yield Futures to express the curve un-inversion view, with 1 basis point move equal to 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
TVC:US02YShort
by inspirante
DXY Outlook FOMC Prep 14th JuneWill the Federal Reserve finally decide to pause on further rate hikes, keeping interest rates at 5.25%, or will the Feds hike rates one final time to take rates to 5.50%? There has been much speculation about the likely outcome of the US FOMC regarding its interest rate decision. Especially with the most recent CPI data being released at 4.0% (Expected 4.1% Previous 4.9%) a significant slowdown in inflation growth is being witnessed and it is likely to play towards encouraging the Feds to pause on further hikes. Although the June unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7%, the NFP was still significantly stronger than expected at 339k. There are several technical analysis factors applying the downward pressures on the DXY, in particular, the downward trendline, 50MA and the 103.40 resistance level. If the Feds does pause on rates, I'd be looking for the DXY to trade down to the support area of 102.80 and 103, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
Further Upside for the AUDUSDThe RBA surprised markets by hiking rates 25bps, taking interest rates in Australia to 4.1%. This decision saw the AUDUSD rise steadily from the 0.66 price level up toward the 0.67 resistance level. As the price maintains above the bullish ichimoku cloud and the 200MA signals further upside potential, look for the AUDUSD to break above the 0.67 resistance level to trade up toward the next resistance and round number level of 0.68. This move higher would need to be supported by further weakness in the DXY (checkout DXY analysis in the link)
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Is 2024 is the golds, golden year?any break above the resistance line can create sharp increase in the price and push the price higher and higher. the history of chart show that every time the price was successfully braked the resistance line we saw 500 percent increase in the price value. so may be this year be a new golden year for Gold. by pushing the banking sector crisis by the fed hike rate, the probability of soar in the price of commodities and Crypto market is rising.
TVC:GOLDLong
by EQDailytrading
AUDUSD RBA Decision 7th March 2023The AUDUSD remains "trapped" between the support (0.67) and resistance (0.6780) in the lead up to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision at 11:30am GMT+8 The current expectation is for a 25bps rate hike, to take the interest rates in Australia from 3.35% to 3.60%. Generally, since August 2022, every interest rate hike from the RBA had seen the AUDUSD trade lower. This trend was broken with the most recent decision in February. Currently trading at the 0.6746 price level, if the RBA does hike rates by 25bps AND signals that further rate hikes can be expected, the AUDUSD could trade up to the 0.6780 resistance level. However, at the resistance level, if the price fails to break higher, the AUDUSD could reverse back down and continue to be trapped within the range.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
4
USD/CAD Outlook (26 October 2022)The USDCAD retraces from the recent high to trade at the 1.3660 support level. This move lower is driven by the weakness of the DXY and also respects the downward trendline. Tomorrow, the Bank of Canada is due to release its decision with regards to the interest rates. Markets are expecting an increase of 75bps to take the interest rate to a high of 4.00% The last interest rate hike on the 7th of September saw the USDCAD fall briefly. This is a likely scenario again, with the price likely to fall toward the 1.35 support level.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
EUR/USD Outlook (26 October 2022)The EURUSD surges higher from the support level of 0.9852, but with no clear fundamental driver. This move higher could be the front running and hawkish sentiment from the market that the ECB will increase rates by 75bps (and possibly even 100bps) With the price approaching the 1.00 (parity) level again, look for price action development to determine the next possible move. A break of the resistance level could see the EURUSD trade higher towards 1.020 (the next key resistance level). Whilst a rejection of the resistance level could see the EURUSD fall back toward the support level of 0.9850 (however this is an unlikely scenario, given the interest rate hike on the horizon for the ECB)
Long
by JinDao_Tai
1
US Federal Funds Rate Prep (DXY)With the Fed Reserve expected to hike rates by 75bps tonight, the common question is "what would happen to the DXY". Typically, because the Fed Reserve communicates the expected hike, this leads to a priced-in scenario. The previous 4 rate hikes... 16 March, 25bps hike as expected. 4th May, 50bps hike as expected. 15th June, 75bps hike (expected 50bps). 27th July, 75bps hike as expected. Generally, the price trades lower following the release of the news, only to trade higher again several days after. Could this be the case again for the upcoming releases? Maybe the DXY could retest the support level of 109 before trading higher again towards the 112.50 resistance level.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
Altcoins could see more pain as Feds keep up Interest rate hikesUsing a 4 hourly chart. Unfortunately, as we move into this bear market with all of the recession and inflation fears we will continue to see a drawdown in crypto prices. As I posted recently on a hidden bearish divergence with the Altcoin market cap chart we are starting to see a pullback already. I have a fractal for illustrative purposes only and as a visual of what can happen price-wise. Inflation numbers come out July 13th and then after this we will know how aggressive the Feds will be with the next rate hike.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Short
by altcoinb
2
An inversed relationship There is a long running inverse relationship between gold and yields. As a non-interest bearing asset, gold becomes less attractive when yields, or real yields in-particular, go up. Using the TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) and inverting the price (price and yields are inversely related), we get a proxy for real-yields. With this, we can look at the 10-year chart of gold prices vs yields and the inverse relationship becomes clear now-- rising real yields push gold prices down! As gold is quoted in US dollar, the strengthening dollar has added salt to the wound, further weakening the price of gold. On a shorter timeframe, the 1875 handle seems to be of a significant level, providing the previous levels of support and resistance. With this support level breached last week and a retest this week, coupled with the rising yields and a strong US dollar, we see further downside for gold from here. Entry at 1875, stop above 1960. Targets are 1762 and 1680. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by inspirante
Timing is everything! While the general direction for the US Fed and the ECB are similar, their timelines differ greatly! On the US Fed (USD) front, we are days away from the next FOMC meeting (4th May 2022) where market participants are expecting a 50 bps hike. On the ECB (EUR) front, the ECB is expected to taper its asset purchase program by early Q3, before it will consider any rate hikes. The difference in timelines of the Fed and ECB could provide some interesting hints on where the EURUSD is heading in the short term. With the Dollar being the first mover here, we expect strength in the dollar to drive the EURUSD lower over the short term before the ECB firms up its hike schedule. The EURUSD pair is also trading just below the 7- year support level. Zooming in on a shorter timeframe, we also spot a breakout and retest at this level, suggesting the move has begun. Entry at 1.08070, stop above 1.12080. Targets are 1.06760 and 1.03835. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:6E1!Short
by inspirante
GOLD: The Short-term Structure Looks Bearish Fed hawkish policy to fight inflation is putting in a high on GOLD. It's also about the speculation of how many hikes may happen this year. However, if FED will suddenly turns out to be less aggressive then this will quickly stabilize the gold prices, but for now, it looks like the current tone will not change so metals have room for more weakness. At the same time I am also looking at DXY that is trying to break out of a triangle and towards 100 level. Have a nice trading week everyone. Grega
TVC:DXYShort
by ew-forecast
US10Y in-depth analysis - Why I think we will see Gold above 2k In this video I am going to show you why I think that we will have a major decreas e in bonds price this year. This is due to the fact that we are currently trading in a wedge shape , or a so-called Elliot Wave Diagonal which is characterized by a 5-Waves-Pattern , of which every inner wave is shorter than the first impulsive wave. Fundamentally spoken, I do assume that rate hiking might already priced in the current Dollar and Bond prices. Therefore FED rate hike announcement might be the catalyst for several sell-off waves. If you liked this analysis, please leave a like a comment and a subscription. Thanks. RT
TVC:US10YShort
0
by RT_Trading_
2
US100 Institutes trapping retails for exit liquidityWe closed Friday at the local support pf 14600 and went through it like a knife through butter down to the next major support at 14400. If we do not hold that there is a high chance we dive into 14000. A Pattern that keeps repeating is that we see green candles in premarket, fooling average Joe that the dip has ended, average Joe buys in, and in the second half of the trading day institutes DUMP IT. That is, the retails SEND IT and later Institutes DUMP IT. Be very careful on green candles...false breakouts are a known tactic to attract exit liquidity. Only get in the market when it is very well clear that the tanking has ended.... hard to call but you know...
CAPITALCOM:US100
by GoatOfWallStreet