PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - TRUMP TO WIN - SHORT SPX & LONG VIXPreparing for a Trump win
Following Friday and the FBIs decision to re-open the case on Hilary I have decided I am going to assume A Trump win, this is for several reasons:
FBI
pbs.twimg.com
1) After reading into it, the reopening of the FBI case implies one of three things imo - 1. They have found new significant information that can or will see Hilary odds come under-pressure if not ruled out entirely. 2. A third party (wiki leaks or Russia etc) has obtained information regarding that matter that will be used against Hilary. 3. The FBI Chief fancies his 2 minutes of fame.
- In terms of likelihoods, 1 is perhaps the most likely - I find the timing of the reopening the most damning argument for there being some real anti-hilary firepower, given it is within the FBIs discretion to reopen the case now, surely if it wasnt that important they could wait until after? Of course this may be questionable integrity but equally some may argue they should have done so to stay neutral. However, perhaps most interestingly, the timing AND the fact the FBI have been pro Hilary in the past also gives weight to number 2 - where the FBI have had their hnd forced e.g. if a 3rd party does indeed have some relevant information the FBI perhaps dont want to be seen as incompetent and thus want to get infront of the news. The timing also supports argument 2 since it is a bit of a shock announcement and thus it could be a 3rd party forcing their hand. On the other hand some may question why a 3rd party would notify the FBI and not just release it. Finally, 3 as is the case in most public situations, it is possible and it is the US after all. however, an argument against this is the fact the FBI have been pro Hilary so its unlikely this would only happen for fame.
- If it is any of the 2 above and information that could write Hilary off as a candidate, of course positioning for Trump make sense. especially when the market is very very short trump here. Since Friday Trump has lost half of his gains to trade currently at 23% up from 18% but down from 27%, these are odds i like to start adding some length for trump.
POLL
voteforthepresidentonline.com
1) Recent official polls of 1000-2000 are a lot tighter than i expected and are certainly imply much longer odds for Trump. However the main decider for this variable is that an unofficial online poll of 1,000,000 shows trump trading at 526652 with Hilary lagging down at 253024, putting trump up at 60% and Hilary down at 30%. I saw an unofficial poll for brexit which had 700,000 respondents with 70% for leave and 30% remain and we know what happened there. IMO data rules, 1000 isnt enough to be representable there is too much sampling error. In conjucntion with this I feel there will be alot of closet trump voters.
