SMCI - Can Super Micro Computer regain trust of investors?Super Micro Computer received non compliance note from Nasdaq for failing to timely file its annual report for the period ending June 30 by the Aug. 29 deadline.
The company said it had 60 days to file the report or submit a plan to regain compliance.
After Hindenburg short report and notice from Nasdaq, much negativity already priced in. If they can file their report for ending June 30, rebound started from just below 400 , might reach 530-usd (61.8%). In the end, revenue growth for fiscal year is expected at 80%.
Hindenburg
Adani Ports Ltd : Detailed Elliott wave analysis
Adani Port and SEZ full Elliott wave analysis.
The chart is a learning chart, those who want to learn can gain some knowledge of Elliott wave analysis.
Keep in mind that all bad news in any financial instruments are suppose to come in wave 2 or wave 4 that is the corrective phase of any instrument.
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Cathie Wood vs. HindenburgIn the Blue Corner: Cathie Wood
Who is Cathie Wood?
Cathie Wood is the founder and CEO of Ark Invest. One of the most popular investment management firms that focus on growth sectors and long-term, high-reward investments.
Wood is the former Chief Investment Officer at AllianceBernstein, but left the company in 2014 to start Ark Invest after her popular disruptive innovation funds were deemed to be too risky.
Why has she become so famous?
In 2021, Forbes named her in the “50 over 50” list of influential figures over the age of 50. She was named the Best Stock Picker of the Year by Bloomberg News in 2020.
Wood has gained a massive following in social media communities such as FinTwit and Reddit. Her focus on popular growth names is held by many as the industry standard of how growth sectors are performing.
Wood has made several forward-looking forecasts that have gained both the ire and praise of Wall Street.
In 2018, she famously predicted Tesla TSLA would hit $4,000.00 per share. She was ridiculed at the time, but in January of 2021, Tesla shares hit that mark on a split-adjusted basis.
Wood has also predicted that the digital currency Bitcoin BTC will one day hit a price of $500,000.00.
She definitely puts her money where her mouth is by adding both Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC and Coinbase COIN shares to her various ETFs.
In the Red Corner: Hindenburg Research
Who is Hindenburg Research?
Hindenburg Research is a well-known investment research firm that focuses on short-selling stocks by releasing reports alleging things like fraud or providing information that misleads investors.
Hindenburg was founded by Nathan Anderson. An activist short-seller that has made a living off of taking down publicly traded companies.
Why are they so famous?
Hindenburg Research has been one of the more accurate short-selling investment research firms over the past few years and have revealed fraudulent activities by several different companies.
First, it exposed electric truck maker Nikola Motors NKLA in a damning report that revealed CEO Trevor Milton was behind operating Nikola as an ‘intricate fraud’ .
The timing of the report couldn’t have been better: It was on September 10, 2020.
Just days after Nikola announced it was entering into an agreement with auto industry heavyweight General Motors GM .
Milton was ousted as CEO and never did deliver his long awaited rebuttal to Hindenburg.
Shares of Nikola have plummeted from unimaginable highs of $93.99 in June of 2020, to its current price of just over $15.00 per share.
Nikola is now the poster child of skepticism surrounding companies that come public via SPAC IPOs.
Hindenburg took on another EV SPAC company in Lordstown Motors RIDE , releasing a scathing report on March 12 of this year.
Just last week, Lordstown saw both its CEO and CFO resign. As well as the company reporting that there is significant doubt it will be able to meet previous production estimates.
Hindenburg has taken on other heavyweights and is well known for taking a short position and driving stock prices lower.
The Heavyweight Fight: Cathie Wood vs. Hindenburg Research
Round 1: Hindenburg Throws The First Punch
On June 15th, Hindenburg struck again, this time targeting popular sports gambling and fantasy sports company DraftKings DKNG .
Some well-known investors in DraftKings include Walt Disney DIS , WWE owner Vince McMahon, and owner of the New England Patriots, Robert Kraft.
DraftKings also has lucrative partnerships with the NFL, MLB, NHL, NASCAR, UFC, and the Dish Network.
A lot of potential brands could be hurt by these allegations if proven true.
n the report, Hindenburg alleges that DraftKings’ SPAC merger partner, a Bulgarian company called SBTech, is heavily involved in the black market and illicit gambling that has ties to money laundering and organized crime.
SBTech was absorbed into DraftKings as a part of the SPAC merger.
It now operates as an in-house part of the DraftKings brand. Therefore, allegations against SBTech are allegations against DraftKings as well.
According to Hindenburg, SBTech attempted to distance itself from the black market and organized crime prior to the merger with DraftKings.
It even created a new entity called BTi, that acted as a front for SBTech so it could continue to make revenues from markets where gambling was illegal.
Hindenburg gives an estimate that 50% of SBTech’s revenues are made in markets where gambling is considered illegal.
n fact, Hindenburg actually gives several gambling websites that have ties to known organized crime rings, that led back to SBTech and its subsidiaries.
These allegations are some of the most serious that Hindenburg has reported, with legitimate legal consequences that could have a long-term effect on the DraftKings brand.
Shares of DraftKings fell by 4.2% following the news.
Does Hindenburg Research have a short position on DKNG? At what price?
Oh you better believe Hindenburg has a short position in DKNG. So as with most short-seller reports, take them with a grain of salt.
While Hindenburg does not reveal how large of a short position they own, fundamentally it is in their best interest for the DKNG stock to continue to fall.
Round 2: Cathie Wood Attacks
Enter Cathie Wood, who may just be the personification of buying the dip!
Wood is well known to target companies she likes long-term that are beaten down.
Some examples of this include her continued support of Coinbase COIN and Teladoc TDOC during their prolonged dips.
So how much DraftKings did Wood buy? She added $42 million worth or 870,299 shares following Hindenburg’s report.
Wood added these shares to both her Ark Next Generation Internet ETF ARKW and her Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK).
The stock now represents the 19th and 17th largest holdings in each ETF respectively.
It seems like the markets were supportive of Wood’s investment as shares of DraftKings closed the next day higher by 0.6%, outpacing the broader markets.
There Can Be Only One!
… Who will win?
Judging from DraftKings’ rise the next day, it looks as though Wood and Ark Invest have taken round one from Hindenburg.
The report from Hindenburg was thorough and detailed, but unfortunately for them, there is a general disdain right now for short sellers in this market.
Retail investors have made it their mission to blow up short positions across the market, so we just don’t think Hindenburg’s latest report will hold up against the Queen of Growth, the Duchess of Buying that Dip, Cathie Wood.
What do YOU think? Who will win this fight?
CLOV Retracement, Massively Oversold but Needs PRCLOV has not received much love these past few weeks after the short report from Hindenburg came out, but I believe that the short report does not hold much substance as well as the fact that CLOV had posted phenomenal earnings. CLOV stock had dropped about 12% after reporting great earnings but weak guidance for 2021. CLOV is also being investigated by the DOJ due to the short report which has created a lot of uncertainty for the stock. But all of these variables do not discredit the fact that CLOV has been massively beaten down along with having great earnings. I see CLOV most likely trading sideways until the DOJ investigation is over. Any type of good PR for CLOV will send the stock skyrocketing with immense upside, but if the DOJ investigation materializes into anything, CLOV's stock price might be sent down into the 5s. Key support for CLOV is 9$ and then 8.50$. My prediction for CLOV is it having a short-term spike up to 9.70$ then bottoming out in the low 9s. This is not financial advice, I am not advocating the buying or selling of CLOV stock.
NKLA: A scam remains a scamWell Nikola is a classic example of what happens when a scam gets too big.
Newbie investors hop on board, who are misinformed and think, basing their opinion mostly on mainstream media articles, that Nikola will be the next Tesla.
Unfortunately the mainstream media is totally clueless, and it becomes more and more apparent that Nikola is and has been an elaborate scam from the beginning.
The latest Hindenburg report and the very lackluster response from CEO Trevor Milton speak volumes.
Then SEC and now even the DOJ are investigaten Nikola for securities fraud.
The stock will do a classic ABC corrective structure, and will collapse down to 10 USD.
What happens then depends on how the affair will be resolved. But we assume that Nikola will end up getting completely hammered, and the CEO will end up facing
criminal charges, possibly even jail, thus the stock will pull a wirecard on us.
That's just my opinion, so as always, please do your own research when investing or trading.
Hindenburg Omen is ON. Market might slide much lower. Last week there were perfect conditions for Hindenburg Omen indicator. Markets seems unstable at the moment, > 3% of stocks marking both new 52w highs and lows.
The Hindenburg Omen looks for a statistical deviation from the premise that under normal conditions, securities are either making new 52-week highs or 52-week lows. The abnormality would be if both were occurring at the same time. According to the Hindenburg Omen, an occurrence such as this is considered to be a harbinger of impending danger for a stock market. The signal typically occurs during an uptrend, where new highs are expected and new lows are rare, suggesting that the market is becoming nervous and indecisive, traits that often lead to a bear market.
For it to be on 4 conditions should be satisfied:
1. Number of new 52-week highs and 52-week lows in a stock market are greater than a threshold (2.2% for example).
2. Positive recent trend. Index > index
3. The McClellan Oscillator ( MCO ) is negative.
4. 52-week highs cannot be more than two times the 52-week lows.
You can read more about the indicator on Investopedia:
www.investopedia.com
VIX macro signal I follow a CFA from Charles Schwab, who uses this signal to establish negative or positive sentiment. To notice how it worked in the past, I have added the S&P500 trend line.
The idea is as follows:
When the upper Bollinger Band (with a 50 period and 1 standard deviation) on the $VIX turns higher, that is a bearish sign, and when it turns lower, the SPY tends to rally.
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Also, today January 28th, we had a Hindenburg Omen flash.
Hindenburg omen and US stock market crashWe continue writing a series of posts on the possible collapse of the US stock market. We have already written about the gigantic gap that formed between the growth rate of the US stock market (especially its technological sector) and the growth rate of the country's economy. This is a classic example of the formation beginning of a price bubble, which, at the end - collapses.
Today we’ll talk about a specific indicator of the onset of the crisis, the “Hindenburg Omen”. The indicator is named after the disaster of the German airship Hindenburg, which crashed in the American city of Lakehurst in 1937.
The essence of the indicator is that it monitors the ratio of the number of securities that updated 52-week highs to the number of securities that show 52-week low. That is, part of the securities is decreasing in price, while a part is growing. The increase in the number of securities that fall in aprice above a certain mark (a fraction of the total number of shares) is a rather alarming signal (such signals are called "Hindenburg exchange"), which may indicate the stock market’s collapse.
The “Hindenburg Omen” signals not only about a change in the market phase from bullish to bearish, but about the upcoming stock market crash. Each significant sale in the US stock market over the last 30 years has been preceded by the appearance of “Hindenburg Omen”.
The classic identification criteria for the Hindenburg Omen are as follows:
1. The number of new 52-week daily highs and lows simultaneously exceeds a certain threshold (2% -3% of the total number of companies in the listing), with the number of highs is lower than the number of lows
2. The stock index is higher than it was 50 days ago (10-week yield is growing).
Recently, in the dynamics of the high-tech sector of the US stock market, “Hindenburg Omen” are increasingly found: the index shows historic highs, but less than half of the components of the index trade above their 52-week highs. Over the past 15 years, this has happened only twice: in 2007 and 2014.
That is, we have another signal in favor of the fact that the stock bubble in the US stock market may burst very soon.
Global-Review / June 1st : NFP & Hindenburg OmenHope this idea will inspire some of you !
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