Historic
Top of the WaveWell it is finally here.. We have reached the date of the above green time cycle. This cycle marks the date of significant highs, normanly followed by a sharp break down. This cycle has remained acurate for last 3 years (we are entering 4 year) and it remain spot on.
The Green time cycle shows the dates when oil stops a bull run. Even in a bear market, there will be bull run leading into this date... On this date we see the high. Even thought I only use this to predict the Week of the event (break to bearish).. It has been acurate to the DAY the last three years. As it predicted the break happened on Friday. October 7th. That is six complete cycles going back over three years. Simply put, we have reached the top of the wave until Apex of Red cycle, Jan 20, 2017. Oil is going down.
The Red sine wave shows at what point in the cycle oil will be at its low. Think of it as the inverse of the Green time cycle with a different wave timing. The low for oil will be on the Apex date of the Red sine wave. The last apex occurred (and was predicted) on Aug 4. This wave timing longer than the Green time cycle, so you can see it's apex can occur from days to months after the High of the Green time cycle. The difference in time between the two dictates the speed of the fall. This pattern is consistent.
Sure... I only make a handful of trades a year, and i normally swing them for about 3months, so why is this important to short term traders.. Because if you know the direction for the next few weeks or months, and you know any spike up before the Red sine wave date will be reversed to at least the prior low since the Green time cycle date.
All of last years gains where based on these trades.. I will be updating our other published ideas to consolidate them here. All are subsets of this cycle chart. If you have been following you know we are on a longterm big short from 47.10
You also know we made the trip from 40'ish to above 47 twice and our longterm shorts are still underwater. You also know that we also swung short-term shorts for +21% profits with a 1week trade.
Neither of these cycles predict price, just course and direction. Our target remains 38 WTI by Jan. 20, 2017. No do overs, not yea buts.. We feel oil will bottom on this day for cycle, and although it will take a few days to confirm a top, and could test 50 this week, we feel this marks the end of this last bull run of the year.
Bear Dominant Trend Still RulesSo, as we have seen PayPal news did have a positive effect on the market, but it was short lived as we tumbled back down again. This is characteristic of being in a bear trend still. The chart that I have decided to do was looking at how up trends and down trends length can tell you the dominant trend of the market. The greater the length means that the market is more inclined to go that direction. For most of this year since the all-time high we have been seeing longer down trends than up. Indicating how we are in a more bear dominant trend. A short time in May we saw a bigger length up trend than down trend which quickly turned into a balanced market before capsizing back down into a bear trend.
RSI is a great indicator to see where the trends reverse. Often it will either peak or bottom and generally head the direction of the trend. During the balanced market phase RSI was just going around 50 (black line) signaling how we were in general going sideways with neither bears nor bulls winning. Looks like we have now fallen, but are slowing the current bear trend. The length of the downs has been getting shorter, meaning there is a possible STOP to the trend that may have a reversal. Yet, RSI is signaling that we may have more movements down yet to come. That would mean going below this month's all-time low.
Indicators
* DC – As the price is underneath the midline it reinforces that we are stuck in a bear trend. If we can get up and stay above that line a bull trend may be in effect. I'm watching to see if it breaks.
* RSI – Overall the only time it went into overbought mode was when we saw that rally back in May. Remaining below that and staying under 50 for most of the time tells me that the bears still hold this market in their paws.
Targets
Bull Target: $422
Bear: 400.16
If you haven't seen it then you should take a look at ibankbitcoins' chart showing a flag pattern. It is dead on so far. Take that BearV lol. I had the same sort of bull inclination, but nowhere near the accuracy of ibankbitcoins. Congratz on a worthy chart. It is linked in the related ideas below.
I talk a little bit more on PayPal news on my recent blog post: www.allbitcointa.cu.cc
