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BITCOIN: HISTORICAL AND LOGARITHMIC CHART!This chart is based on historical data and is logarithmic. I believe that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot continue to grow exponentially; this would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025. While I am a long-term Bitcoin bull, one has to remain realistic. The cause of these growth cycles is the halvings, which lead to a supply shock followed by a subsequent rally—every time. These are all guesstimates, of course, but I think this chart is realistic. The long-term goal for BTC in 2025 is around 150K to 180K USD, in my opinion. It won't go much higher afterward and can be seen as the final asymptotic price. Important Things to Note - During the 2016 bull run, after breaking its previous ATH, BTC had a 303-day bull run and reached a new ATH of $19,666. - During the 2020 bull run, after breaking its previous ATH, BTC had a 337-day bull run and reached a new ATH of $69,000. - In the 2024 bull run, BTC broke its previous ATH in just 500 days, which was not expected. The current situation is that BTC broke out of its previous ATH and is currently retesting it. Based on historical data, we can expect a bull run lasting between 303 and 337 days. I hope this chart helps people understand the long-term growth dynamics of BTC. This idea is presented in a probabilistic manner.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
18
Rising and Falling The Bitcoin StoryAs we zoom in on the intricate details of this Bitcoin chart, we’re essentially time traveling through the life story of a revolutionary currency. This isn't just a tale of wild price swings; it’s a deep dive into how Bitcoin has weaved itself into the fabric of global finance. We've seen it grow from a digital seedling into a towering tree in the financial forest, its roots spreading far and wide. Our story begins when Bitcoin was just whispers in cyberspace, valued at mere cents. It’s akin to finding an old treasure map, leading to a chest that's now worth billions. Then 2013 hit, and Bitcoin grabbed the world’s attention — not all for good reasons, mind you, with the Silk Road and Mt. Gox putting it through its paces. Those were testing times, but Bitcoin showed its mettle, bouncing back each time. Marching down the timeline, we encounter pivotal moments like when Germany gave Bitcoin a regulatory nod, the halving events that sharpen Bitcoin's scarcity edge, and the growing wave of institutional investments. Each of these milestones is like a stepping stone that Bitcoin used to cross the river of uncertainty, inching closer to the mainstream shore. Fast-forward to 2017, and we find Bitcoin riding a wave of enthusiasm, propelled by a flood of ICOs. It’s a dizzying climb, with a peak that had everyone talking. But then, as the adage goes, what goes up must come down, and 2018 brought the sobering chill of the crypto winter. This was the market's way of saying, “Take a breath, reassess, and plan your next move.” In 2021, Bitcoin came back with a vengeance, reaching dizzying new heights. This wasn’t just about investors jumping on a bandwagon; it was about big players, from corporations to hedge funds, recognizing Bitcoin’s potential. But then, the tides turned in 2022, as macroeconomic pressures, from inflation concerns to tightening monetary policy, caused the market to shiver and shake off some of its gains. And just when we thought we had seen it all, the Bitcoin saga continued into 2022 and 2023, years that would test the mettle of investors and the resilience of the crypto ecosystem. The narrative took a dramatic turn as the market faced the headwinds of change. Inflation was no longer a specter looming on the horizon; it became a stark reality, sending central banks into a frenzy of monetary tightening. The ripples of this new economic stance were felt throughout the Bitcoin market, sending shivers down the spine of the crypto world and triggering a sell-off that would see Bitcoin shed a significant portion of its value. But even as the value wavered, the technology didn't stand still. Innovations within the blockchain space continued, with improvements to scalability and security, not to mention the ever-expanding universe of decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Skepticism was still a frequent guest at the table, but for every doubter, there was an innovator, pushing the boundaries of what crypto could be. As we turned the page to 2024, the crypto community was holding its breath in anticipation. Would this be the year of recovery, the year when Bitcoin would defy the odds and rebound? Or would it be another year of challenges and character-building for the world's premier cryptocurrency? The introduction of more sophisticated regulatory frameworks began to pave a clearer path for institutional adoption, and whispers of the next halving event started to stir the market's imagination. Bitcoin's dance with mainstream finance became more intricate. There were stumbles, sure, but every step was a lesson learned. The chart became not just a reflection of past price movements, but a ledger of Bitcoin's ongoing maturation—a digital asset growing up in a world still grappling with its implications. Behind the scenes, this chart captures the tug-of-war between innovation and skepticism. For instance, the social media giants, with their advertising clampdown, had Bitcoin on the ropes for a bit. Yet, each technological milestone, each regulatory hurdle crossed, has added to Bitcoin's credibility. Then, we have the environmental subplot, where Tesla's dance with Bitcoin highlighted the growing pains of an industry grappling with sustainability. It’s like watching a fledgling industry mature, grappling with its identity and its impact on the planet. Why are we sharing this story in all its technicolor detail? Because it’s about more than just investment and market speculation. It's a historical document for future market historians, a lesson book for current investors, and a crystal ball for those trying to catch a glimpse of the future. This chart is a saga of resilience, bursting with tales of technical revolutions, economic shake-ups, regulatory cliffhangers, and the tireless human spirit driving it all. It’s the chronicle of an underdog that’s fighting for its place in the financial hall of fame. But wait, there's more. This isn't just about recounting past glories and missteps. It's about sketching out the forces that may shape Bitcoin's journey ahead. It’s about seeing the patterns, the peaks, the troughs, and gearing up for the next chapter in this blockbuster saga. In wrapping up this lengthy, winding narrative, we come back to where we are now: Bitcoin, standing tall amidst the shifting sands of finance and technology. This chart isn't just a snapshot; it’s a living, breathing tale of an asset that's as enigmatic as it is exciting. It’s about understanding the past to navigate the future’s uncertain waters. So here’s to Bitcoin, the digital enigma, the currency of tomorrow, and here’s to the unwritten chapters that we’ll be charting next.
Education
by MonoCoinSignal
⛳️ POLE TRAGET FOR THE NASDAQMarket Phases and Historical Comparisons: The chart outlines two main type of moves, labeled "Dips" and "Legs" suggesting a comparison between a past post bear market period and the current market situation. There are colored boxes representing different market movements: declines (in red) and upward movements (in green), referred to as "Legs" and "Dips." Historical Bear Market Decline Data: The table is shows historical bear market declines from 1901 to the present, indicating the index (Dow or Nasdaq), the percentage of the decline, and corresponding recovery phases. The average decline is noted as 38% for the Nasdaq during bear markets. The average 1st Leg is 63% (current 43%) The agerage 1st Dip is -15% (current -13%) 👉 Next potential target for Leg 2 is 29% or 16212, about the old ATH 👉 Rebounding dip afterward is expected to be around -17% These are just historical precedents and guardrails to help us navigage the marekts.
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by TintinTrading
2
XAUUSD bearish ideaHello everyone. On 4H / D / W we have reached a major resistance. It's very unlikely to break this resistance based on history of the market on previous months there will be lots of reactions to 1960-1970 zone probably a lot of people will place their s-limit orders around this zone. I'm opening a sell position on Asia high between 1958-1962-1964 targeting 1934-1928. I'll open 3 positions two I'll always close manually and last one till it hits my lowest target that is : 1900 - 1904 based on 4H time frame. Be careful that high impact news might change the direction of the market. This trade is based on important S/R based on higher time frame + price action.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by feerisa
1
CHFJPY I Potential return to the previous structureWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** CHFJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
🟩 VIX is coming to 18 month low🚨🚨 ONE LINER 🚨🚨 Attention, traders! The Volatility Index ( TVC:VIX ) is approaching an 18-month low, which could indicate a strong bullish signal for the market. Background : Two months ago, in December 2022, I discussed the significance of the VIX dipping below the 20 level as a key milestone for a bullish market. Today, I want to dive deeper into this topic and share with you three compelling ideas that support the notion of an imminent bullish market. Let's explore the historical context and see how this information can help us make informed decisions in the current market. 💎 IDEA 1 OF 3: VIX as a Key Reversal Indicator Since 2022, the TVC:VIX has demonstrated a strong correlation with market reversals when positioned under the 20 level. This pattern suggests two possible outcomes: If the correlation breaks and VIX continues to stay low, we might see a sustained bullish trend. If the market reacts positively to today's FED communication, it could further solidify the bullish sentiment. It's essential to keep an eye on the market's reaction and the VIX's behavior from this point forward. During the bear market, the VIX typically fluctuated between 20 and 32, so a sustained drop below 20 could indicate a significant shift in market dynamics. 💎 IDEA 2 OF 3: VIX Levels During Market Rallies Historically, a VIX level below 20 is often associated with market rallies. Although we are currently above 20, the VIX remains relatively elevated compared to periods of strong upward trends. As the VIX moves closer to the 20 level, it's important to watch for signs of an impending bullish market rally, similar to what we experienced on December 4, 2022. 💎 IDEA 3 OF 3: VIX as a Market Transition Indicator In previous market transitions from high volatility bear markets to low volatility bull markets, the VIX played a crucial role. As the VIX pushed below the 20 level and remained there long-term, it allowed the market to rally upwards. We can use this historical precedent to study the current market and determine the probable direction. CONCLUSION : The VIX nearing an 18-month low presents a compelling bullish signal for traders. By analyzing the VIX's behavior as a key reversal indicator, its levels during market rallies, and its role in market transitions, we can gain valuable insights into the market's probable direction. Keep an eye on the VIX as it approaches the critical 20 level, and stay tuned for updates on the evolving market landscape. ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Here is a section for the real trading geeks who want to learn further: Let's examine some historical examples that highlight the VIX's behavior in relation to market trends. Example 1: 2009 Bull Market Rally In March 2009, the VIX dipped below 40, a significant milestone after the 2008 financial crisis when it had reached an all-time high of 89.53. As the VIX continued to decline, the S&P 500 rallied more than 60% by the end of the year, marking the beginning of a new bull market. Example 2: 2012 Market Rebound In 2011, the VIX spiked above 40 during the European debt crisis, causing increased market volatility. However, by early 2012, the VIX had fallen back below 20, coinciding with a strong market rebound. The S&P 500 gained over 13% that year, reflecting a renewed sense of optimism and stability in the market. Example 3: 2016 Post-Election Rally In the months leading up to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, the VIX experienced increased volatility, hovering around the 20-25 range. After the election, the VIX dropped below 15, and the stock market began a multi-year rally that continued into 2018. This period of low VIX levels correlated with significant gains in the S&P 500. These historical examples illustrate the VIX's ability to signal market sentiment and direction. When the VIX drops below key levels, such as 20, it often precedes a bullish market rally. By monitoring the VIX and its relationship with the overall market, traders can make more informed decisions and capitalize on potential opportunities. Happy trading from TinTinTrading!
TVC:VIXLong
by TintinTrading
The fearless minds of strong men!Through out history men have done great things, so great that some are still not understood today in our modern advanced world. We tend to think they had less then us, (most likely true) maybe that's what made them great, the will to reach new heights. It's the unknown that they reached for for fearlessly. Most of the time reaching for nothing or too high. Through virtue and passing knowledge to one another while working together the steps to greatness have been achieved over time. In our modern world many things have changed but our senses remain the same. Fear still has the same effect on us, it makes us do irrational things. Decisions made under emotional distress has always led to the same results through out eternity. Another quality these men had was to go where others had not or dared not. Once again fear, fear of the unknown. Travelling the path less travelled. If the path is less travelled than by default there is more new things or ideas to discover. Having said all of this about conquering your fear and being bold, another thing all these great men had in common was preparation, organization and contingency plans with alternate strategies. Preparation and plans are tools to control your fears and emotions. This brings us to to Aristotle. Arguable one the greatest teachers of all time. He said "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit." So... making small gains in investing is the longer march to victory. He also said "those who know, do. Those who understand teach." Aristotle taught Alexander on a face to face basis for approximately 7 years. Alexander then went out to find his destiny saying, "There is nothing impossible to him who will try." On to Julius Caesar and his famed glory, he always looked to match Alexander. Some of His famous quotes are "Without training, they lacked knowledge, without knowledge, they lacked confidence, without confidence, the lacked victory." Once again, preparation... with that preparation he was then led to say another famous quote, "I came, I saw, I conquered." Trading view understands this as well and they have the same outlook. "Look, then leap." This a climbing the mountain outlook. At the end of the day it's the same thing. Investing is very similar to preparing for battle or for a difficult climb. Investors are both your allies and enemies just like the terrain on a climb or the battle field . It's up to you to figure out and know when to push and when to retreat. Looking back at history can be insightful to say the least. When we look at charts we are looking at what has past before and look for the similar patterns. This too is not new knowledge (history repeating) it's age old information but a lot of people today are blind to it. King Salomon quote in ecclesiastic eludes to just this. "What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun." History is cyclical it always comes back around in some form or another. Another great quote from Salomon is " words kill, words give life, they're either poison or fruit... You choose." I have added the CM_Williams_VIX to the chart. On the monthly it has done some interesting patterns in the past, take a look. So... Choose your destiny, it's up to you. What ever road you choose... be blessed, if not one way, another, and always make the best of what comes your way. Thanks for looking WeAreSat0shi Stay Blessed!
BNC:BLXEducation
by WeAreSat0shi
1
Bitcoin levels - where bear markets ALWAYS bottom$BTC has been breaking through every support in this bear market, now we have FTX contagion and the question is where will we bottom? Going back in time to previous bear markets ive noticed the "final trend". Drawn in black, this is where bitcoin has consistently found its bottom at 1,8k in 2017, 3,1k in 2018 and 3,8k in 2020. At time of writing that final stand point sits at 7,5k in 2022... Currently hovering at 16k as possible support, lower supports range from 9,5k to 14k before the final trend is in sight. A loss of that trend would be absolutely deadly, do you think we can go low enough to revisit it? I hope not, if it however means that we start a new cycle, then lets just get it over and done with. Let me know your thoughts on the TA below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Silkman
4
Failed Follow Through Days and 2022The the S&P 500 bear market statistics for the past 50+ years show that the average number of Failed Follow Through Days (FTDs) is 5. However, in the stagflation market of 1973-74, characterised by rising inflation and declining economic growth, there were a shocking 9 failed FTDs! If we exclude the two short bear markets of 1982 (only 53 days) and 2020 (V shape), then the average Failed FTDs is just a bit over 6. This might indicatate a historical precedent case for a stronger rally here Note, a distribution day, within the first five trading sessions after the market has a FTD, has led to a failure of the FTD 70% of the time. Also note, undercutting the rally day from the FTD implies a 95% failure rate
SP:SPX
by TintinTrading
1