An October perspective. 50%-67% drop potential. Worse case -94%As you can see each time we reached the first week of October we dropped a few times before going up But there are a few exceptions to consider. October 2020 up until 2021 was a year of stimulus checks. Many people who got them made sometimes more with the checks than their actual jobs. The last major rally was due to many factors. One major factor was Btc halving and the hype around it. but I will keep this short.
But the key Octobers you want to be paying attention to are those in the year 2018 to 2019. These years we had interest rates from the fed at just 2.5% at its peak. As interest rates rose, Eth reacted negatively and also did BTC.
To make matters worse., The macro environment of today is much worse than in 2018. Interest rates are expected to reach 4.5% by Dec. Also Russia's cuttings off oil to Europe as winter comes closer could cause people to not be able to afford risky assets while they focus on putting more of their money into other alternatives to stay warm.
Now some will say BUT Look, 2018 RALLIED after the drop. Sure but this is more about rallies in October. I see no reason to be bullish this October with current macros. We cannot even compare 2018 to today's world, and things are just getting worse. I stand firm with my short position thesis for now.
50%-67% drop potential. Worse case 94% from ath (UNLIKELY)
