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An October perspective. 50%-67% drop potential. Worse case -94%As you can see each time we reached the first week of October we dropped a few times before going up But there are a few exceptions to consider. October 2020 up until 2021 was a year of stimulus checks. Many people who got them made sometimes more with the checks than their actual jobs. The last major rally was due to many factors. One major factor was Btc halving and the hype around it. but I will keep this short. But the key Octobers you want to be paying attention to are those in the year 2018 to 2019. These years we had interest rates from the fed at just 2.5% at its peak. As interest rates rose, Eth reacted negatively and also did BTC. To make matters worse., The macro environment of today is much worse than in 2018. Interest rates are expected to reach 4.5% by Dec. Also Russia's cuttings off oil to Europe as winter comes closer could cause people to not be able to afford risky assets while they focus on putting more of their money into other alternatives to stay warm. Now some will say BUT Look, 2018 RALLIED after the drop. Sure but this is more about rallies in October. I see no reason to be bullish this October with current macros. We cannot even compare 2018 to today's world, and things are just getting worse. I stand firm with my short position thesis for now. 50%-67% drop potential. Worse case 94% from ath (UNLIKELY)
Short
by Dtrader2020
4
General Market commentYesterday I cut half of my open positions. Namely the digestion I was looking to get, in the obvious line of resistance (200DMA) is not acting as per model. Historical Precedent What is different is the way that the market digested the correction. I was expecting much more the a tight sideways digestion on low volume (green) but the action is not tight (purple). Now the low volume is there (red) ! However, this makes me much more cautious about the bullish scenario. The model we wanted was a much tighter action. Do not let low volume mislead you! Check out the correction in 2007. We started on low volume but then on the bottom the down volume picked up. To be honest we never really got to "panic" mode in this bear market. The PutCall, VIX - never really showed panic markers, on the top of that the meme stocks are breaking out. Point being is that it is not impossible to bottom without these but it is unlikely.
SP:SPXShort
by TintinTrading
BCH Price Still Has A Potential To Reach $6k AreaLike majority of mid cap projects BCH is forming very similar crashing pattern as BTC did in 2018. Of course 2018 btc crash happened with different velocity and curve, but price did have some kind of bounce and sideways movement as BCH had this time. If we extend fib. levels over 2018 bitcoin crash where level 1 sits at 2017 ATH and level 0 at the low, we can see that the price did first reach lo 0.618 retracement, then eventually crashed, closing the gabs above the low, only to have another breakout and pint point nailing level 4. fib. extension (69k). Time will tell very soon if BCH price will react to the same fib. retracement/extension levels, but if does, it would mean that the price would first climb just above 1k, then have an accumulation back below $200, then of to the races to 6k area where level 4 fib. extension level sits at. Imagine that, it would truly be an amazing alt season. Remember that time is irrelevant here and no one knows when things will happen or for how is anything gonna take to play out. We can only speculate price areas based on historical price movement. It is only a speculation, we need more time to really confirm all of this but when price is set for new ATHs after a major crash like this, it tends to react to above mentioned fib. levels. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
Long
by AVA37
2
Delta triangles guide price actionNYSE:DAL Testing Twitter integration. Looking for feedback on the symmetrical wedge pattern similar to the historical example. If the pattern repeats, it appears to be a reduction of volatility until some time near the funnel when a breakout may occur with significant velocity. The direction in the past was positive, but I suspect this version may have a negative skew derived from the negative sentiment in the overall economy. Now there is too much demand for airlines to satisfy but the prevailing sentiment is that demand will soon cool significantly from the Fed raising rates and the consumer tightening their disgressionary and travel budget.
NYSE:DALShort
by MarketFund2k
💡 BTC 16k to 160k - Macro Cycle Analysis 💡Hi All, See a macro perspective on BTC - 16k to 160k Yes we are in a bear market (in Sep 2021 I called this as happening mid 2022 spot on, proposing 20k, feel free to check my historical posts linked below) At the end of the day, the macro cycle is king - no use trying to guess specific prices or time as these are really hard to guess and likely you will fail as with most What we can be 100% sure of however is that economic cycles repeat and have clear events that can be identified Smart money enters in the economic climate during bear events and exists in economic climates leading up to and after bull events (sure most will know Wycoff theory) Any BTC added to your portfolio below 20k is a steal, below 30k is still damn fine - next cycle high is looking like 150k - next halving will be key factor Currently, the powers at be are crashing economies across the globe to catalyze the great reset (essentially paraphrased Klaus Schwab here) BTC has never been in such an economic crisis, so I expect this bear market will be more dangerous than previous As we see capitulation with BTC, Alts will get wrecked, many more projects (like celcius) will die and everyone will lose faith in crypto and especially alts Once we see this, BTC will start stabalizing, and we will start to see the dawning of the next cycle, (see my Hidden Death Cross / True Golden Cross analysis) At this point we can see which Alts survived and use Fib analysis of ATH and bear market low to understand how they will bounce back (and they will) (and many will explode - gaming for sure major one here) Never forget the bigger picture, Technical Analysis is not about emotion, it's about identifying mathematical patterns and probability of events, so drop some shrooms and get charting! Peace Yemala *please note on the next cycle, BTC could break free from the crescent trajectory in the chart, if so maybe we see 200k+ - that would be sweet but until I see signals, I am staying realistic with the data
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Yemala
6
NZDCAD Bullish SetUp I LONG! Welcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair! **NZDCAD is about to retest a key structure level which implies the likelihood of a move up. Expect buying pressure to come in at the level. Our target is 8228! What are your thoughts on the pair? We'd love to hear it in the comments! Don't forget to click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Trade safe! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
Temporary (at minimum) good buying opportunityIn bear markets, the potential for upswings are immense. I am not saying this market is done falling... Yet. I believe $BTC around 26K is a great opportunity to buy and hodl. Since 2012, all major BTC crashes have net averaged ~ -63%, with most around net ~ -50%. We are now down about 63% from BTCUSD highs in early November 2021. I think now (If generally a believer of what Defi and BTC) is a GREAT time to get in at low prices and hold for months - years. I believe the crypto market will reach its lows around the same time as equity markets even if just temporary bottoms. Good luck traders, let me know what you think in the comments below. M
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by matteophone
Apple Key Points 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 86.2% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 2.95% For this the market will stay within TOP 170.91 BOT 161.12 At the same time We can estimate with a 81% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than 0.44% For this the market will stay above the TOP 166.75 BOT 165.28 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by exlux
2
Bitcoin VOLUME levels - this is NOT a free fallHey fellow traders, just a reminder to see the big picture... Look at the historical trading volume which is below us (actual price 38,5k atm) and the number of supports from them... Now imagine how much of a sell effort would that be to break all of them? Is it realistic? I feel NOT. Let's wait what FED will have for us next week, how the markets will react and if Dollar index would bump back off the historical resistance... GL&HF Cryptovlcoun
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Vlcounek
VLXUSDT is testing the historical support! Ready for the bounce?the price is testing historical support on 0.19$ as you can see on the upper chart, where the previous bullish impulse started. On the 4h timeframe, the price is creating a descending channel How to approach? The price needs to hold the support and have a new breakout from the descending channel and static resistance and retest it as new support. According to Plancton's strategy , we can set a nice order ––––– Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐
VLong
by InkyGrip
10
🎯 HISTORICAL EDGE - 77.50% WIN RATE - 08APR22PRO TRADER : Do you see the HISTORICAL EDGE? NEWBIE : silence ... PRO TRADER : Ok, we got a 10day low yesterday. Today the SPY gaps up and closes positive on the day. This close is above the 200MA. ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ RESULT ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ 🔱 This setup has occurred 40 times since 2007! 💎 🔱 The 1 day move from here has had 77.5% chance of being bullish 🟢 ( aka higher for the cash session 08APR) 🔱 The average move up has been 0.8%! 👉 Aka we predict that on the 08APR22 the general market (SPX) has 77.5% chance of closing 0.8% here from here!
SP:SPXLong
by TintinTrading
1
🎯 HISTORICAL EDGE - 01APR22PRO TRADER: Do you see the HISTORICAL EDGE? PRO TRADER: Yesterday was the last trading day of the month. We closed above the 200D Moving Average. NEWBIE:... silence .... PRO TRADER: We also closed for a second day down and we closed in the lower range of the intraday. NEWBIE: And?! PRO TRADER: This has a significant edge for market. We backtested it since 1996!!! And we see an oportunity you can take advantage of. ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ RESULT ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ This setup has occurred 28 times since 1993 ! 💎 The 1 day move has had 85% chance of being bullish 🟢 on the next day ( aka market session on 01APR) The average winner has been 2 times larger than the average loser!!
SP:SPXLong
by TintinTrading