Get started

Historical

🎯 HISTORICAL EDGETRADER: Do you see the HISTORICAL EDGE? TRADER: Yesterday we posted a LOWER HIGH, LOWER LOW and LOWER CLOSE for the 3rd Day in a row! NEWBIE: So what? TRADER: It was also a MONDAY NEWBIE: And?! TRADER: We refer to this as TURNAROUND TUESDAY. CHECK out the STATS what happens the next day when this setup occurs ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ RESULT ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ This setup has occured 22 times since 1993! 💎 We backtested the results: The 1 day move has had 65% chance of being bullish 🟢 on the next day (aka market session on 15FEB) The average winner has been 2 times larger than the average loser
SP:SPXLong
by TintinTrading
2
DASH - Don't Look Surprised If This Happens (It Did In 2017)While we are waiting for things to unroll and btc to finish its fall, we can take a look of what happened historically. It is really hard to say how fast we could reach to full fib. extensions (4.236) that sits at around $3.5k for DASH (showed in more detail in previous idea about DASH), but if history is any indication we should be climbing really fast once BTC starts to recover. At the very end of every alts season, laggers had the best run as investors start to look elsewhere for % gains. They will not invest in ETH that has rose more than 5000% this bull run but something which has only rose 200% and is still waiting for the rotation of the money to flow in. Just so you know this does no apply to every altcoin that had an amazing bull run in 2017/18 and is still very low. It only applies to "OG" ones that are still listed on biggest exchanges, can be traded on margin (price has a potential to skyrocket even more), and still has practical uses in the financial systems (utilities). Because DASH applies to all of those criteria i still stick to it since 2017. It has been really boring for more than a year now, but those tend to go parabolic the most at the end. Also braking above the green trend line and a successful back test of it would be nice. DISCLAMER: I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well. BINANCE:DASHUSDT
Long
by CR35
3
🎯 HISTORICAL EDGE - VIX helping the BULLS 🐂👋 Hey team! Today we see that the VIX 🌊 made a dramatic reversal after closing more than 10% below its 10D MA 👇 Why is this special? Because a few days ago we were above it by more than 10% 👆 We reviewed when has this happened in the past (since 1993 to be exact)🧪. ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ RESULTS ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ This type of event has occurred 40x since 1993 and we see strong historical edge 8️⃣ days later with a batting average of 77.5% to the upside! 📈 We also see that 90% of these times we have closed above the closing price of SPX on the day it occurred (31JAN in our case) at some point next week!
TVC:VIXLong
by TintinTrading
2
🎯 HISTORICAL EDGE - 🎾 BOUNCE?Today was interesting day since a few things have triggered: ✅. Yesterday we gapped up ✅. Today we closed at a 10d low ✅. Today we closed under 200MA ✅. Today we closed at 25% of the Daily Close Range (shame) 🦄. Some additional technical magic filters We tested the times this has happened...since 1993📆 ! We saw a relatively bullish move. The 2DAY move on the spy has been bullish nearly 83% of time🟢 . This type of setup has occurred 1️⃣8️⃣x! Average move up has been about 3% over a 2day period, which is positive🟢 . However, if we do not observe strong bounce, probabilities stack strongly to the downside, so observe and evaluate 🔴 . However, as our members hear me repeat over and over again patience is the name of the game! Trade safe
AMEX:SPYLong
by TintinTrading
🎯 HISTORICAL EDGE – RARE ANIMAL 🦖👋 HOLA team! A very rare system has triggered in our studies. This is a 7️⃣ day higher close for the VIX. We backtested the system since the initiation of the SPY (Only 11x, super rare 💎 ). What we see is that....(drum roll 🥁) the 3 days move has yielded 100% bullish move. This is quite a tell. Average bullish move has been 1.7% for 3 days. 🟢 However, given the abnormal behaviour of this market, caution is advised. If you like this idea and want similar like this click on the link below. ⬇️
TVC:VIXLong
by TintinTrading
XRP What To Expect In The "Near" FutureXRP, like other 80% of the alts did not have its bull run yet. Even though BTC may very well be in the bear market, that does NOT mean that alts are. What we now have to wait is for BTC to provide some type of a short small rally just to re-test its prior area of capitulation (55-58k). If this happens i expect alts to go with it, but.... there is still more down to go with BTC after that re-test. As BTC starts to capitulate again, expect the XRP and other alts to do the same in the short term. XRP may even set a new low but i don't expect it to fall below $0.50 as it is simply to strong of a support. Then as BTC starts to slowly recover expect the BIG rotation of the money into smaller caps and laggers like XRP. I've lived through 2017 XRP rally and i remember that XRP can trade sideways for REALY LONG time, but when it finally goes it goes really FAST, really HIGH. After BTC capitulates xrp price should recover VERY quickly, setting a new higher local high (yellow arrow) then next stop is 2018 ATH. From there we sould see first major profit take and the price to re-test $1.5-2 area that held us down for ages (yellow box). Last leg up should get us to $8-12 and this is where a will personally exit the market, regardless of the news (green box). $9-12 for xrp is where a full 4.236 fib. ext. level is sitting at. Level 0 is low and level 0.236 is the top of the rally prior to capitulation from Sep. 2018. Price will of course move differently. What i've tried to present with it is where to expect major resistence and support to come in or get retested. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. BINANCE:XRPUSDT
by CR35
5
SPX Printing A MASSIVE Bubble. Be Very Careful !!On the left side of the chart i've compared a chart from 1891 - 1935 to show the similarities between chart back then and todays after the dot-com bubble. The orange chart is not stretch out or anything. It is there to show that when the bubble popped, price did eventually fall below the bottom of the previous sideways range (orange box). In '29 chart also reached above all the fib. extension levels, just like it is doing right now as it is preparing for the final blow of top which is in my opinion only a few % away. I did the same price comparisment with DJI index in one of my ideas, where the price behaves almost the same as it was from 1915-1929. Really scary stuff if you think about it. Wonder how will that effect the crypto market as it has never experienced a REAL stock market crash. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well. SP:SPX
SP:SPX
by CR35
BTCUSD - Extended Bull RunsKeeping this short and sweet. If we zoom out, from a historical time perspective (not taking any other technical analysis into consideration), I believe it's worthwhile and interesting to note that the bullish time intervals (from low to blow-off top) has extended each bull run by 300-400 days. If this pattern continues, we can expect to see the bull run last for the next couple of months, and a blow-off top to be observed between March and August 2022.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by electricalTuna1995
16
Is BTC repeating history ? As we all passed through the Jan 2021 and we all have seen what happened, these days of BTC was quite interesting for me and made me think about different possibilities of prediction in the BULLISH and BEARISH scenario which I explain one by one in below I know maybe we are more BULLISH in "Onchain charts", "market cycle" or " sentimental analysis" but it's just a technical analysis from my view Trend Lines 1. As we see on the chart "Orange trend lines" which is from the COVID-19 crash until now, has pretty decent support (white arrows) even after the correction in March and after that, however, we have another trend line which is in the upper on the chart which had good resistance in past and even with these days, that when we connect these two lines they bring us a massive "rising wedge" pattern which as all we know its a BEARISH pattern. Triangle 2. Even though we also have a pretty big resistance zone just sitting above our ATH and it seems a giant right triangle which also can be a very good BULLISH move in case of the breakout from above. Historical Move 3. HOWEVER, if we use a "Bar pattern" from 23th of Jan to the end of 21st Jul, we will see that BTC price had followed the historical move almost the same, In this case, the rest of the bars will sit EXACTLY under our resistance zone (even upper resistance trend line) and above our support trend line ( last white arrows ) !!! Surprisingly, it will fill up our rising wedge pattern. Also, if we compare both dates of that period they are both 50 days. Baby Rising Wegdes 4. The white dotted rising wedge ( left one) did a very good job on finding a good spot to sell (or short) that we can easily see BTC is making another one in present days as well. EMA 5. last but the least, We got the EMA 200, it has been very crucial for the overall movement of BTC in 12H timeframe and we had a good bounce from retesting it which remains us a good BULLISH signal. If BTC repeats that historical bar pattern again we might have another leg to the downside, but if it breaks the rising wedge and triangle from the top who is gonna stop it? which way do you think BTC will choose? What is your thinking about my technical analysis? Please feel free and leave your opinion in the comment section and let me know them.
FTX:BTCPERP
by Sharifmoghadam
Which currency pairs benefited from financial crisis 2007-2008The stock market has been rising in spite of the covid pandemic. Even before that, some well-known names were predicting a huge cruse with Peter Schiff republishing his same old book every year for some time now. Anyway, many of us agree, that there is something wrong with the markets and even more reputable managers predict a crash. It is, therefore, a good idea to look where the money tends to go should that happen. Forex is a central point of the financial markets. Bonds, stocks, and commodities each is denominated in a currency. Buying the right asset from the right asset class is great. Buying it with the right currency is even greater ☺ One of the winners is clearly an American Dollar. I will leave it in all the following charts. After a long downtrend, the crisis put a halt to that and in 130 days, 860 days worth of losing the value was recovered. Of course, such rapid growth in currency value must have made exports difficult, so I assume there must have been some major intervention and the downtrend resumed after a beautiful double top. (the chart below dollar is SP500 as another anchor for our analysis) Then, there are two losers in this chart. It is important to mention two things. First, the charts present futures as the other indexes don't go as far. Second, a weak currency doesn't mean the country handled the crisis poorly. But as far as currencies go, AUD and EUR did perform rather poorly. // I think this is likely to be a repeated behavior. AUD is still a commodity currency and EUR pegs diverse economies to each other. This raises a question about stability as successful currencies require political and economical union too. Oil currencies such as NOK or CAD seem to also have dropped. I added Oil chart at the bottom. // I do think that this is likely to repeat with NOK, but not necessarily with CAD. Although the CAD is another commodity currency, it is perceived as safer to some degree. At least as far as I know. (could not find reliable NOK index) When it comes to currencies generally perceived as safe, Yen performed nicely and has risen more than 25% measuring from the lowest low between 2008 to the nearest significant top. The pair USDJPY was sideways-ish before the years 2007-2008 but is clearly downward-slope as Yen somewhat outperforms US Dollar. The same can't be said about the Swiss Franc which has only woken up after the dollar started to reverse. You can point out several weekly candles when the investors were rushing from the dollar and buying CHF in exchange in these times. // I think a Yen will express similar behavior. I am not sure what to make of CHF which is backed by gold more than other currencies and the gold has already risen quite high. I will leave it here without further interpretation, but I am looking forward to discussion if there is one, and I will make a few more similar posts in the future if this one becomes any popular.
Editors' picks
TVC:DXYEducation
by OrcChieftain
26
XRP Should Have A Break Out Soon - Similar pattern as in Q2 2017Xrp is looking remarkably similar to what it was in q2 of 2017 from the fractal perspective. I've highlighted those fractal similarities that can be seen. If history is any indication we should be breaking out soon giving also that the btc dominance is tanking as alt-season approaches. Expect consolidation in $1.5-2 area, maybe even higher considering how long we've been accumulating at those low prices. Be well. I am not a financial advisor so non of this is a financial advise. BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by CR35
12
Second Bearish BTC ?As I pointed out in the chart, my personal belief is that Bitcoin will probably want to repeat history. This possibility is not very strong and we can not make a definite decision until it breaks RSI 50 Weekly, but I think the task of this analysis will be determined in the next few days. I will not comment on taking short positions, but you can make adjustments to your portfolio in this price range and have about 50% of the capital in cash to see what the market will decide. Risk-takers can take a short position with 1-5 Leverage steps up from 45,000 to 50,000 shorts. Good luck and be profitable. Please leave me your comments in the comments.
Short
by navid97
THE 4HR 200MA DUMP + A NEW ATH PRINTED AFTERWARDSThis data I have only pulled from about year back. I actually stumbled upon the information one day when I was doing a top down analysis on SPY. Studying data at least from JUN of 2020 until now, using the 4hr chart in combination with the 200MA. I begin to notice a pattern that was occurring. The market seemed to dip in the 3rd week of every other month back to the 200MA. The sell offs aren't really surprising being that market will always correct. What's unique is the "behavior pattern" that it/we showed quarter after quarter. We get sell off into the 200MA, it chops around, then by the 2nd week of the following month, we get a sentiment change and a bull run. The market historically has printed a new ATH every time. This theory once again played out today as of OCT 25th 2021, SPY put in a new ATH. With this run starting roughly two weeks ago. I timed it perfectly and made some nice profit over the last few weeks. My biggest trade actually was #PINS(Pinterest), I banked 497% on that play. I grabbed a 57.5 call with an entry at 53. price eventually broke out & pushed to $66. Trades like that can happen, especially when the entire market is overall bullish. Moving forward, try to keep a mental clock of where we are during each month in comparison to where the market is trading. Could save you a headache or 3.
AMEX:SPY
by DayTraderEarl
The Bubble Could Pop Like It Did In 1929I and others who try to spot patterns in charts are starting to see a lot of similarities compering bull run from the 2008-2021 and the one from 1921-1929. You can clearly see that patterns are profoundly which to be honest, it keeps me up at night. Stock market as well as crypto market are VERY high. In last few years/months. everyone wants to become a day-trader or whatever, and having a mindset that everything can only go up from here. It was the same mindset back in 1928-1929 where everyone knew about the stock market, getting overleveraged and promoting it as it could make you rich over night. It is the same now so i want to worn people about all this. Don't listen CNBS and financial media as they are only there to create liquidity for the institutions so they can sell when the time comes. That time is right around the corner. Also a fib. extension levels extended over previous fall in 2008 takes us to around 11-13% above where we currently are with DOW. Don't be naive and say that this time is different. It's not. Maybe the fall will not be that dramatic as the bubble is not as big as it was in 1929 but we certainly could and probably will fall below the bottom of 2008 ( roughly to 6k), so don't be surprised if it turns out this bear market is longer and deeper, because we need such correction for the market to stay healthy. I am not financial advisor so non of this is a financial advise, just a BIG warning to you all. DJ:DJI
DJ:DJI
by CR35
8
DJI Elliot Wave and its HistoryBy using parabolic curves and the logarithmic chart I have found something very consistent and interesting with the DOW starting from its inception. ***Note: IF this has been discovered before then all credit to them, this will just be a decent idea to think about now and to bring up given recent events and trend.*** The Great Depression marked the first parabolic curve break on the chart but after I drew more parabolic curves using these guidelines: - Each curve must touch the initial bottom back before 1900 and the bottom of the Great Depression (~1932) and must touch the start of Wave 1 and the bottom of Wave 4 for each of the cycles throughout DOW's history. - There had to be 5 waves that match the rules correctly on the Monthly chart - There had to be a matching A,B,C style correction after each cycle once the parabolic curve broke - The 1973-74 recession was more of a W,Y,Z where it ended in a zig-zag type pattern - Also, the pandemic fall back was very fast but still had a quick A,B,C which I left off the charts since it was too small to view - Each parabolic curve break had to be after or during an important part of U.S History and sometimes World History as with COVID-19 In the end it seems to be pointing towards a large scale 1 - 5 Elliot Wave on a Super-millennium type cycle. Now this is just pure speculation but proper to ponder as an idea as the rules do fit currently to be so. If there are debates to this please let me know as I am still a bit intermediate level with Elliot Waves. Same goes for each of the cycles I have shown. So what does this mean for a possible future?? Once again high speculation here. - If this is true then this current possible pullback is just a number 2 on the Monthly Elliot scale of this cycle which, if history repeats, would be a 50%-62% retracement back to 22-25k range and should be completed by mid-year next year (2022). - That means a 3 would reach ~53k with a wave 4 to touch that current parabolic wave at ~36k. Then it would follow a wave 5 pushing towards 55k area. - After this parabolic break I would speculate that it would be the last and it would end wave 5 of the super-millennium type cycle that DOW has been on since inception - Once broke it would result in a large scale and long scale bear market that could last many years and see a correction pushing past 80%, 9.6k seems to be a good area with strong support as an eventual target - Another possibility that points to this being the end of a very large cycle is that each of the parabolic curves are getting more narrow showing the overall rapid price rise as this has aged. - Also, drawing out the Elliot Waves for this cycle showed 3 and 5 being very close for their tops with 1 and 4 nearly matching in price as well. - Current Wave 1 has been riding the bottom of the last parabolic wave for some time now. - Each correction in these Waves have been either been related to a big economic or historic event (sometimes both) so looks like this one could be another housing industry bubble as has been speculated to happen soon. - IF this stays on course as shown then it would point towards the second half of 2027 as a huge historical event to come especially one that could cause a break of the long-term cycle. This would also be devastating too all markets as well if it happens. This is just something I did and thought it would be a good idea to share. The DOW has been showing signs of a large correction coming and the speculation of another housing bubble bursting has got some thinking of a 2008 recession. What I have found does show a correction but it is at this time pointing to a much larger correction to come but at a later date this decade. I would speculate though any monthly close below 20k on the DJI could mean serious trouble indeed as it would break this parabolic curve and each time it has at least meant a multi-year bear market to follow. Anybody have anything to add or to help correct me on (I'm still not quite to an expert level with Elliot waves) then let me know be glad to comment back! ***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
TVC:DJI
by WITSIT
🚨🚨🚨 SPX Black Swan Event 2022: Hidden MACD Indicator 🚨🚨🚨Technical Analysis comparing MACD histogram and structure of historical black swan events with today: 2018 - 2022. Each historical Black Swan Event share 3 simple indicators, that are in play today; 1. Incremental pullbacks of increasing % that ultimately lead to the crash 2. MACD histogram micro contractions and macro expansion that ultimately lead to the crash 3. A Trend Line of Lower Lowers followed by Higher Highs on Recovery that ultimately lead to the crash Historical Black Swan Events; 1965 - 1975: Build Up to 73/74 Crash 1986 - 1988: Black Monday Crash 1998 - 2009: Dotcom Bubble/Subprime Crash Today; 2018 - 2022: Black Swan Event / Crash? Hidden MACD Indicator & Analysis As you will observe, in each of the major black swan events / crashes since the Great Depression, all three of the indicators play out. Most significantly is the clear contraction and expansion of the MACD that is only visible on daily or weekly timeframes depending on the crash and how it played out: 1965 to 1975 saw the build up to the 1973 Crash and thus the MACD on a weekly timeframe over 10 years expresses the contractions and expansion. Likewise, the Dotcom bubble to subprime crashes also last around 10 years and can be observed only on the weekly timeframe. Comparatively on a daily timeframe over the course of 2 years, Black Monday crash displays the MACD contractions and expansion Meanwhile today in 2021 we can observe over the last 3/4 years a similar expression of the contractions and expansion. Conclusion: History tends to repeat itself and three major historical indicators of crashes are playing out today. We know the FED can just keep printing $$$, but regardless, the house of cards will collapse again, as it has done time and time again. Will 2022 be the next black swan event? Share your thoughts and interpretations!!
TVC:SPX
by Yemala
14