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EURUSD Watch for Bounce from Demand AreaWelcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair! **EURUSD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
by BKTradingAcademy
3
CADCHF Swing I Headed down +150 PipsWelcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair! **CADCHF - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
2
EURCAD 6 Year Low! Correction Soon!Welcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair! **EURCAD has dropped to retest its 6yr low and the pair is heavily oversold. We expect a correctional movement this week! Our target is 3525! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
EURUSD - Here's What You Can Expect! Welcome back! Here's a potential buy scalp opportunity for KiSS 2.0 Strategy or whatever entry criteria you use. ***EURUSD - listen to video analysis. We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
10
Chart of the last big liquidation in May is repeating!As we saw in the last cycle from Q4 2020 until mid July 2021 we formed a large head-and-shoulders on the big scheme of the daily chart. Due to the overall uptrend of Bitcoin this bearish pattern got invalidated as soon as we hit the critical neckline point where it should have dropped. Then we went onto the next cycle from end of July until now. Where we saw a massive adoption of the blockchain technology, therefore a major growth of Bitcoin (as a represantative of the overall structure in the crypto market) and crypto in general. During this cycle now we interestingly formed the exact same head-and-shoulder pattern and are now at the end-part of this pattern. So because of the quite accurate similarity I made a ghost picture of the price movement after the last cycles large liquidation in May 2021. Then I placed this ghost structure at the point of our last big liquidation at the beginning of december. I managed to place it the right way, so that there is as little deviation as possible. What we are able to see now is that this ghost price-movement is corresponding almost perfectly with the indicated Fibonacci Levels. The first support of this ghost movement is perfectly aligned with the 0.168 Fib Retracement level and also with the trendline of the overall trend. The next resistance movement of the ghost feed is to be found at the 52k area which matches with the recent yet unfolded chart, in fact it coincides exactly with the local resistance. This is turned into support and then immediately is retested right after the rejection at the 0.236 Fib. After this movement it breaks all time high and soon retests it before it heads up to new ATH. I find this very interesting. In fact until now the Bitcoin price is following exactly that same pattern.
by gianthetrader
BTC correction and then jump to new Summit!The bitcoin correction trend according to the chart in the weekly timeframe, and based on the Fibonacci lines, will probably continue until the support of 52,000, which corresponds to 38% of the Fibonacci. What has been the case with bitcoin ascents in the past is that before each new ATH, there was one ascent, a 6 to 12 day correction period, and a 17 to 23 percent drop in price. This history can be our guide to the future uptrend of Bitcoin. I will be trading shorts until 52,000 at the moment and then switch to long trades. BINANCE:BTCUSDT DISCLAIMER: trade based on your own decision press like👍 if you enjoy 💚
Short
by Yoones_m
🚨🌩 SPX 1Hr: Major Bearish Ichimoku Cloud - Avg Dip 10% 🌩🚨🚨🌩 SPX 1Hr: Major Bearish Ichimoku Cloud - Avg Drop 10% from ATH / Historical Analysis ⛈🚨 In this analysis, I look at the current SPX 1Hr Ichimoku Cloud vs. recent historical performance. Summary: A Major Bearish Ichimoku Cloud is forming on SPX Hourly. In the last 2 years, only 3 clouds like this have formed like this, each resulting in a significant dip. Observations; Mar '20: Major Crash 15% on first dip, followed by more - Unclear if current cloud may result in similar crash Sep '20: Significant Dip 10.6%, happened with 2 bearish clouds - Current cloud has possible short-term similarity Oct '20: Significant dip 8.9%, happened with 2 bearish clouds - Current cloud has possible short-term similarity Current: 1.Major bearish (red) cloud has formed, Kijun Sen (red line) is dominant. - This is a significant red cloud formation compared to red cloud formations over the last 2 years. - You can observe just 3 more occasions such a significant red cloud formed, which resulted each time with a significant dip or crash - A dip of around 10% from ATH (similar to last red Ichi clouds) would result in a pullback of the SPX to 4100 range What are your thoughts? yemala
SP:SPXShort
by Yemala
7
🚨🚨🚨2022-2032: The Great Reset - Global Economic Crisis🚨🚨🚨The following analysis looks at the 2 major historical crashes: 1929 Wall Street Crash 2000/08 Dotcom Bubble & Subpime Crash I then compare them with where we are today in 2021, and where the market is going for the next decade 2022 - 2032. I take a simple, reductionist approach to look at basic technical analysis / indicator (MACD) factors identifying similarities and compare them, following the efficient markets hypothesis that all available information is priced into the market. By applying this, observing historical trends, similarities and outcomes I assume current trends may play out in a similar manner under the similar conditions of technical analysis / indicators. The market repeats itself, time and time again we can identify repetition in trends and outcomes. 1929 - 1942: Wall Street Crash & The Great Depression 1.a: Observe how the market is overinflated from 1927 - 1929 - The market broke into the blue channel in 1927, aggressively inflating compared to previous decades of growth. - The market broke out of the blue channel in Jan 1929, into outer-space, these levels could not be sustained and in November 1929, this resulted in the Wall Street Crash 2.a: Observe how the growth and crashes in late 19th Century / early 20th Century channel respect the inner green channel - These were the panics of the 1870’s, 1880’s 1890’s, and 1900’s, 1910’s etc. - indicators seem to be stable and channel is not broken 3.a: Observe the Mega Crash of 85%: - This crash was so big, it set new channel for 20th century 4.a: Observe the MACD Histogram Stability, Breakout and Collapse: - Even during the 1870-1910’s panics, the MACD is stable - In 1927, we see a breakout of the MACD to unseen high levels, ties to the break into the blue channel - A MACD collapse follows, very soon after the breakout from the blue channel and results in 85% crash 2000 - 2010: Dotcom Bubble & Subprime Crash & The Great Recession 1.a: Observe how the market is overinflated from 1994 - 2000, and never retraces until 2009 - The market broke into the blue channel in 1994, aggressively inflating compared to previous decades of growth. - The market broke out of the blue channel in Jun 1997, into outer-space, these levels could not be sustained and in September 2000, this resulted in the Dotcom bubble crash - The market did not fully retrace, and eventually in 2007 there was a small breakout of the blue channel and resulting Submprime crash 2.a: Observe how the growth and crashes in mid 20th Century channel respect the inner green channel - These were the crisis of '66, ’69, ’73, '87 etc. - indicators seem to be stable and channel is not broken 3.a: Observe the Medium Crash of 58%: - This crash actually played out over 2 intervals, the Dotcom & Subprime - I am not sure if this was big enough to set a new channel for the 21st century, or in the previous channel of the 20th century is still in play 4.a: Observe the MACD Histogram Stability, Breakout and Collapse: - Even during the 1950s-1980s crisis, the MACD is stable - In 1995, we see a breakout of the MACD to unseen high levels, ties to the break into the blue channel - A MACD collapse follows in Dec ’99 coinciding with the breakout from the blue channel very soon after the results is a 58% crash 2022 - 2032: Global Economic Crisis & The Great Recession 1.a: Observe how the market is still overinflated even after the ditch bubble and subprime crashes - The market broke out of the blue channel in Jan 2021, aggressively inflating similar to Dotcom bubble - Assuming that the break from the blue channel results in a crash, I have overlaid the crashes of 1929 & 2000/08 3.a: Prediction of a mega crash in 2022 - 2025 around 60%-80% using previous crashes as baseline - See the overlays and potential correction paths that could play out - Both the 1929 & 2000/08 crashes follow a similar trend of a correction, followed by a breakup, followed by another correction - I am proposing that this crash will be significant enough to result in a new channel to be set for the 21st century - I believe that this crash is planned (this is part of the Great Reset) the global economic masters want to reset the global economy - just read about it from the Work Economic Forum (but this opinion is outside the technical analysis) 4.a: Observe the MACD Histogram Stability & Breakout- is the next step the Collapse: ?? - Looking at the MACD across the 2000-2020 range, it is actually stable - In Jan 2021 we see a breakout of the MACD to unseen high levels, ties to the break out of the blue channel - Prediction: A MACD collapse will follow between 2022 and 2025, which will be followed by similarly volatile repetitions of this MACD breakout & collapse Conclusion: Observing the historical 1929 & 2000/08 Crashes, they appear to manifest in similar ways in breakouts of the major trend channel, disrespecting decades long stable market micro-cycles, but especially on the MACD Histogram. Now in 2021 we appear to be experiencing exactly the same conditions playing out. The monthly MACD Histogram is a massive warning sign when assessed in comparison to the historical crashes. Hoe the crashes built up and played out. I expect that 2022 - 2025 will see a major market correction of -60% to -80%, purely based upon technical analysis / indicators. Opinion: To add colour to the indicators, we can look at the news, the agendas and what the global economic elite are planning: The Great Reset. Klaus Schwab (Founder of the World Economic Forum) in his book, The Great Reset (2020) outlines his outlook for the coming decades of rest that will happen across our global local, business and private lives. This outlook is aligned with the agendas (Agenda 2030, 2050 etc.) of the World Economic Forum and other globalist institutions, IMF, World Bank, WHO etc. What is clear is that the global economic elite are capitalising on the COVID pandemic as a catalyst to reset the global economy and societies. Or perhaps, the Covid pandemic is a coverup to hide the real cause of the inevitable global economic crisis? The mask of bad monetary policy, excessive money printing / fiat, fractional reserve banking and marco economic & generational cycles. What are your thoughts? Feel free to share ideas!
TVC:SPX
by Yemala
10
Bitcoin: History Repeats itself. Hello everyone, Quick post for tonight. This is hard to say but I believe Bitcoin is about to drop. History is showing a clear repetition of itself within this chart. Here are the technicals: 1. Negative RSI and MACD: Negative RSI and MACD equate to a weakness in trend. When price is going up and MACD/RSI aren't correlating, it signals exhaustion. 2. Ascending Wedge: there are 2 clear ascending wedges on this chart and that pattern is bearish. Breaking below it confirms a bear movement following. 3. Broken uptrend + retest: The uptrend has been broken (implying a new trend forming) and retested, which confirms that the old trend is no more. 4. Bearish Price action: this current price action is volume going down as price is going up. That implies a bear price action structure or current trend exhaustion (bullish exhaustion). 5. We are not truly in a bull market until all time highs have been tested and broken. - This should be obvious. 6. Weekly HS neckline at 50k has been retested: this confirms the bearish head and shoulders pattern. I know this is not the post you want but it is the post you need to at least give some thought to. I made something similar back when bitcoin was between 50-65k. Look what happened. Protect your profits, utilize risk management, and please stop listening to the crazy overly bullish people on crypto twitter and youtube. They make money when you get liquidated on trades. Notice the high amount of scam wicks recently. As always, be patient, use risk management, and good luck trading.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RomanXIV
11
Resume Bullrun 🐂 Historic Support 🟢 TP1 ✅ Go for TP2 🤔Resume Bullrun 🐂 Historic Support 🟢 TP1 ✅ Go for TP2 🤔 "History never repeats and always rhymes." - A TradingView trader whose name I forgot It's an extension of my previous idea. I hold my opinion on everything there and add a new viewpoint with this idea. ◀️ KEY POINTS: - Opportunity To Break All Bearish Channels At Once & Resume Bullrun (= Open New Bullish Channel) - Bears Are Vulnerable -- Saturday Bear Trap Was Successful -- Bears Are Tired: Multiple Bullish Divergences On RSI - Bulls Are Powerful -- Bulls Are Still Energetic: Higher Highs on RSI -- Historic Invincible Support Hit -- Smart Money Bought The Dip -- Psychologically Tempting Target: $40k -- Funding Rate Favors Longs -- Excellent RRR: 400% -- Every Time In History When BTC Hit This Support Then Hit $40k Within A Week -- Next Week Will Be Green --- Starts From Today 🌌 OUR SIDE: POSITION: Long LEVERAGE: x10 ENTRY: $32 000 STOP LOSS: Daily close below $29 900 and staying there for six hours TARGET: $40 000 $33 000 - $34 000 TP1 ✅ We Hold Our Position & Go For TP2: $40 000 - $42 000
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Elysian_Mind
6
BTC wyckoff Accumulation back in 2015I think taking a look at the past is one of the best ways to predict the future. History repeats itself over and over again. Wyckoff always emphazised Volume as the best Indicator. He also challenged us to ask ourselves "what is the composite man doing right now?" I think he was spreading FUD like crazy, while accumulating Phase C Remeber what the Spring aka Shakeout is: It’s usually the last attempt of the Composite Man to acquire shares at cheap prices before the mark-up move. Creating selling pressure forces retail traders to think that the current trading range will end in the mark-down movement (along with FUD) and exit or reverse their positions. The Composite Man waits for breakout to create enough liquidity and then rapidly covers all available supply resulting in price getting back into trading range. Test: A small retracement to check if there is enough support at the bottom of the trading range after a shakeout. The Composite Man stops his buying pressure (as we see on VOL) and checks if the market has enough demand to not let price fall below the trading range. If so, the market is ready for the mark-up move. If not – the Composite Man continues his accumulation of available supply Phase D LPS: is the reaction after a Test rally. It usually retests previous levels which were considered a resistance. These reactions are usually quite slow and have no volume (as we see right now!) Right now for BTC the VOL should stay low, because the Institutions stopped buying and manipulating, to check if the retail is ready to push the price up, or if there is any major selling pressure. This might take a while and might be a little more back and forth than in 2015. Once we break above 40-42k and CONFIRM it as support the Volume will come back in and from their we good.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by maxwayne23
1
BTCUSD- Downside Projection 21K If we take a look back at the 2017-2018 Crypto run up and sell off the similarities in price action are eerie. I went through studying all the moves trying to find a proper price target based on measured moves with little success. However, today I had a realization, once BITSTAMP:BTCUSD was unable to rally, and a large liquidation through $30000, I realized that we could be on track for another 50% downturn from this level as distribution continues. Comparison - Here is an image of the 2018 drop and as we can see their similarities are glaring. Bitcoin made a new high moving up 492% from a swing low. Dominance fell off sharply right before this high was made topping out around 71. This was followed by a sharp drop in dominance. Despite this, the price of Bitcoin continued its rally finally running out of gas at 19666. Here is where things really become interesting. Ethereum the second most popular cryptocurrency at the time (coinmarketcap.com), began to go on an insane rally. After making all time highs with bitcoin, it pulled back with bitcoin but from its swing low of 501, it pumped 183%. ETH just completed an identical pattern putting in a swing low and rallying 125%. As the ETH high was put in, Bitcoin continued to oscillate in a small range and began to lose dominance at a very rapid rate. From the ATH to the bottom of dominance bitcoins price dropped 36%. Today's measurements show a 34% drop but the pattern between highs and in dominance in price are identical. Once Ethereum put in new highs, It sharply dropped and the crypto market was all downhill from there. Bitcoins dominance finally bottomed out yet prices across the crypto market continued declining rapidly. If today is the bottom of Bitcoins dominance (beginning to look that way) I wholly expect for the market to continue lower. Bitcoin regained a dominance of over 60 after 241 days down trending The price change during this time was a drop of 58%. I expect for BTC.D to be able to top 60 in half of that time as this bear cycle pans out. Key Differences - While theoretically, history would suggest that Bitcoin drops 80% off highs however, this seems unrealistic without major fundamental shift. Integration into businesses and money transferring apps gives Bitcoin lots more value than it had during 2018. People are interested in Cryptocurrency but the liquidity retail has brought into the market is a double edged blade. On the one hand, there is more money going into a product with a cap on supply which will always raise price, on the other hand there is more liquidity for short sellers to take advantage of. Another aspect that has changed is institutional investing. With larger interests now holding bitcoin due to incredible alpha and versatility such as protection against inflation (something that has not been present recently but I will save it for another post) is a huge win for Bitcoin. Many institutions would likely find Bitcoin a steal at 21K as it continues to grow mainstream. These differences are the main reason I only project a 50% drop in price for bitcoin. That being said, these are only my thoughts and there could be a drastic change in Bitcoin in the near future that completely changes the market, I will update this idea if that is the case. Conclusion - I hope whoever is reading this was able to take something away from it. Feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts or a conflicting view. Meaning of Lines Red Dashed- Dominance Low Green Dashed- Dominance High Gold- Price High
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by crawfordpaul
2
TC] SHORT now, LONG later. Correction to 26-21k & up to 69k$+When comparing a simple chart of previous bull-runs it seems like BTC could drop to 21.5k-26.5k range before continuing its bull-run to at least 69.000$. Shorting now: Risky: The trend is your friend -> wait for 30k support to give in. Start taking profits at 26.5k. Going LONG (on margin) at the 26k-21k range: BTC won't fall below 21k. Go Long when the bearish trend seems to reverse. If BTC falls significantly lower than your entry and you get liquidated, I would advice you to go Long again. Perhaps with a bigger position size, not as a revenge trade type thing, but because the probability of BTC being at the Bottom just significantly increased. Repeat down to 21k if needed. (Say you enter at 26k and BTC falls to 22k). You want to be in on this ride. Start taking profits at 69k. Of course, if BTC doesn't fall lower I would go Long as soon as it passes the current ATH since it will surpass it and create a much higher ATH, historically speaking. What do you think? What's your strategy right now?
Short
by CDX10M
1
All Time Historical BTC Major Trends and Long Term PredictionChart Analysis: Using historical bitcoin price data, the graph has been extended to cover since 17/08/2010, so we can do a wider historical analysis of the price. At first sight, there has been three great btc price rises, which I'll call stages: One from 0.10 USD to 10 USD, then from 10 USD to 1000 USD, and third from 1000 to a possible 100.000 USD in the near future. These are shown in the graph with three vertical lines at the left named 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Inside each of these stages, we can see each has had three peaks in it, which are numbered from 1 to 3 inside or next to each peak in the graph. The peaks in each stage have been cut by a straight line to easily identify them, and also to compare the slope each of these stages has. In the first line, we can see the slope is very up hill, with a slope higher than 1. The second line for the second stage, has a lower slope of around 1. And the third line, has a slope even lower than the second, and less than 1 (log scale). As it is also noticeable, begginning from the 1st peak during the first stage, to peak number 2 of this third stage, each time the width of the peaks slighly increases. Which can lead us to believe this peak we are experiencing now will be even wider than peak number 2 of this stage. It is important to note that there is always a peak each time the price gets to 10^x USD, usually followed by a rise in price up to around 1.5*10^x, then going back to 10^x USD, and staying below that price before hitting a new 10^x+1 position. For example, during the second peak of the 3rd stage, when the price hit 10.000 USD around november 2017, it then rose up to 15.000 USD for around a month, back to 10.000 USD, and then stayed below 10.000 USD before now rising up to 100.000 USD. This happened as well at 2nd stage first and second peak. Also, after every peak from every stage, it has always happened that when price hits again its last All Time High, it goes straight up to a new peak. Prediction: Having this into consideration a prediction can be made in which there will be a third peak during this stage, which is forming now, and btc hitting not so far from now 10^5 = 100.000 USD, this prediction is the red curve, with the 3 for third peak. Price might not get near the 10^6 = 1 million USD during this peak, as it has never reached a 10^x+1 price in the same peak as when it reached the 10^x price, nor have gotten close. But, having also in mind this peak should be wider than the last two, and taking into consideration price peaks after passing a 10^x price tend to hit a 1.5*10^x price, it might reach a price near 150.000 USD, stay there for some weeks or a few months, then head back to 100.000 USD and then stay below that price for a while as shown in the red curve. Now, having 150.000 USD as the target, the question is when. As the price not long ago surpassed its All Time High from December 2017, price might head straight up to its target, as it has always done, and looking at how fast price tends to go to a new peak after an ATH, it might happen around April of 2021, but it could take longer and happen even at the end of 2021. Do you think this prediction will happen? Please like and subscribe! :D If you liked this post feel free to donate! :D Source for historical price data: CoinMetrics
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JoaquinBurgosCoin
2
The Secrets to Forex & The Ecosystem TycoonThis article will cover technicals (finally). It is part 8 in the series, and the first of two parts on technicals. It is strongly recommended that you read the others in order for full value. This one is long and more complicated than the others, because you deserve it. Part 1: Raytheon's Military-grade Market Trader There are two problems with selecting technicals in trading. 1. Hard to understand the logic/math guiding the design of many indicators 2. Too many indicators available to choose from without wasting substantial time and cognitive resources On one end of the spectrum, we have bellhop shit, like simple moving averages. On the other hand, we have Ehler's masterpieces. I probably should have given John Ehlers credit at the beginning of this series, because his work was very influential on my intra-day trading theories, in particular. The old man was working on UFO technology at Raytheon before most of us were born, giving you a pretty good idea of the sheer intellectual value he brought to the technical ideaspace. He traded one game of lights and color for another. And I strongly recommend googling and reading through his theory in conjunction with this article. However, the bigger concern isn't the complexity of some indicators, like his, but the volume of choice available. There are, by my abrasive estimation, over 22,000 indicators publically available on the internet. It is a fruitless task to try to bruteforce test them all (unless you have a background in neural net programming). It is far more useful, for your cognitive and time-limited resources, to develop theories or descriptive plans for trading, and then find indicators to fit or fulfill those ideas. Trust me, I learned my lesson on this one. Useful application of your time, and your thinking resources, is really important in this business because everyone is always in a state of researching and learning (to improve their edge). It's like a sport, people get better over time, and you have limited training time in the offseason. Which means it will be harder for you to make money if you aren't getting better. More in the article after next on the hellscape that is intra-day trading. For now, let's introduce a technical price action theory. Just because school has been closed for months doesn't mean you still can't get lectured. Though you can skip to Part 6 if your people just invented fire. Part 2: The 2600 year old Libertarian Tao 57: Therefore a sage has said, 'I will do nothing of purpose, and the people will be transformed of themselves; I will be fond of keeping still, and the people will of themselves become correct. I will take no trouble about it, and the people will of themselves become rich; I will manifest no ambition, and the people will of themselves attain to the primitive simplicity.' The basic libertarian claim: 'that something invisible guides the behavior of actors,' is also the fundamental axiom of Adam Smith's philosophical work on political economy. This little wisdom is thousands of years old, and was likely inspired by our ancestors observations of the natural world. There is a real life analogy to this that I want to introduce... so we don't have to sift through all 22,000 indicators only to settle on just a few. Let's talk about the process of pattern discovery. Part 3: The Auric Pattern Machine The flintstones of the world did not have the internet, schools, or the mainstream media to give them the truths of the world. They could only understand, survive, and predict our reality by watching patterns of nature enfold all around them. The system of the forest environment, of the river, of the mountain. These patterns had profound influences on the thinking of ancient philosophers. They knew that despite the influence of weather, natural disasters, or human interaction, these granular earth systems would persist. They were resilient, and many early humans worshiped the particularly impressive examples of these eras. The examples were transformed into symbols of gods, the divine, or spiritual ideals. They became the first memes. The mountain range of the gods, the forest of the giants, the rivers of the spirits. They created identifiable gods to represent them, and made them offerings out of perceived necessity and respect. We laugh now, but it is certainly better than the offerings we make to the "triangles" we worship today. What made these systems powerful were their ability to last, to appear timeless, at least to humans. Many of these early philosophers correctly identified the underlying factor that gave them these qualities. It's the ecosystem factor. All things that last are ecosystems. The ecosystem entity IS the invisible hand. Ecosystems allow extremes, they allow opposites, they allow emergence, they allow reduction, they allow development... they are machines that produce novel and recurring patterns. All they require is everything to be in balance at any given time or conversely, subject to a universal logic. A type of central tendency that binds all their behaviors to 'logos' (the balancing language). The logic of the mountain is cold and jagged. The logic of the river is water and flowing. It sounds goofy. Like some Avatar or New Age mineral oil. But the market is no different. It is bound by the logos of greed and delusion. And that's where we come in, the Bernie Sanders's and Bernie Madoff's of the world. This should all sound somewhat familiar to you. Like you have heard it before (before my articles), or seen something similar in a movie or whatever. The message comes from many different sources. Part 4: Energy/Cash Flow There are many actors in the market ecosystem, with different wants and interests and capabilities. Young and old, male and female, stupid and intelligent, rich and poor, winners and losers. And thanks to the transition of time and the power of big pharma, one person can be all of those things at some point. But the central logic binds them all together, it's the most common divisor. And unlike the case of the mountain ecosystem, the patterns the market ecosystem produces can be visualized by something more simplified and visualized, a single value called price. The market ecosystem has many "animals" and "plants" impacting that price value as they subject themselves to the logic of greed. You are not one of these animals, you do not have the market power or influence. You are playing someone elses market. In other words, your nutrient and energy flow is too small to make a big impact, you can only depend on the others. Just like a single tiny bug would have little impact on the behavior of the whole forest compared to a tree or a bear. Right now, you are like an honorary member of 'antstreetbets.' Trade well, and you just might get to see your Queen's exposed carapace. Part 5: Stillness So how do you do measure the flows of the bigger influences? First you have to be as still as possible, and recognize your place. Though you have no real impact in the natural ecosystem, you can cloud or distort the estimation of it via your foreign influence, by misunderstanding your position. In market contexts, I mean that your assumptions on market patterns can mask the ACTUAL patterns that exist in the market, you have to look at what the major influences in the ecosystem are (the trees, the bears). This is true for any market: what consumes the most energy, where are the nutrient flows? In a way, the ecosystem is just another market for energy and nutrient trading. Now, you might be munching on your grayons wondering when the strange analogy is going to end. And that's why I made you the bug in this example. Part 6: A Bugslife So we need only look to the wealthiest groups in markets to judge who has the major influences (cash flow is key). What patterns do they create? Fortunately, many of these influential animals use similar technicals indicators (thinking strategies) to understand their ecosystem (and try to benefit from it). Though you will never have the same impact even if you copy these thinking strategies, you can still benefit in your small way by mimicking the successful survivors and tycoons of your local ecosystem. If markets are ecosystems, and ecosystem persist, than how do we, the bug-like trader, take advantage of this 'prediction' or 'certainty?' It's actually quite simple, we try to find the balance, the central tendency, the logic, and we attach a value to it... when the sum of the behaviors of all the animals start to move far from that 'value' in the short run, we can correctly guess that the ecosystem, in its ability to demand persistence, will find some means (via its invisible hands) to return to the mean. This gives us a good clue at what indicators we need to be looking for. NOTE: The technical addition is a major player overall, but only because it's simple to read, it clearly lays out the operational environment, and it allows fast decision making. It meets the Boydian requirements to be theoretically competitive, namely the concept of cycle time management, which will be further covered in the intra-day article. Remember that the 'value' of the center of price gravity is not necessarily a specific price, it may be a range of prices. It may be a fuzzy uncertainty that orbits a major round number. And do keep in mind that this resilient value is comprehensive and includes factors from prior articles (fundamental, seasonals, interest, etc) in its overall calculation. Part 7: Tycoon It's a lot of words to get at something simple, but the key takeaway is how timeless and pervasive this overall concept is. It's integral to nature, to complex systems, to our market system. It was true in the beginning, it is true today, and it will be true in the end. That's why you bet on it, or in risk management terms, you wouldn't want to bet against it. The goal is to own some stock, no matter how small, in the fundamental logos of the ecosystem, or at least ride the coattails of the owners. That's what a tycoon is. Someone that owns a fundamental component of the market/economy ecosystem. Someone at the center, where everything in the periphery has to flow toward him at some point. When you understand it, you can direct yourself towards indicators and research that align with it. Whether they are new or old, you can more easily sift through the 20K+ available with this evaluation basis. Part 8: Operationalizing Terms The Ecosystem system is a recurring scheme that involves the center of price gravity , extremes attached to that center, the patterns that flow between those two states, and the speed/timing of those patterns. For long-term trading, you want to: find the center, then calculate the extremes, then look for patterns flowing between those two states, and finally timing-through-seasonality. (For intra-day trading, seasonality will be substituted with Boydian time cycle management) While the first two are technically sufficient for risk management, the better you are are at recognizing the flow patterns and timing-through-seasonality, the lower your necessary account size and the higher the probability of your desirable rate of return, or consequently, favorable market access. IE, if 105-106 is the center of price gravity on UJ, but price is currently at 109-110, which is the extreme calculated, you would consider either: 1. shorting, 2. closing a long, 3. or not entering a new long at that extreme level. However, price action may sit for an extended period in a distribution regime, increasing your exposure to volatility and capital opportunity cost over time if you choose option 1. Terms: CPG: Center of Price Gravity (The center of the ecosystem, resilient value, the mean reversion point) EX: Extreme (The furthest edge the ecosystem allows without collapsing. What Ehlers calls the "amplitude") FLOW: Pattern Flow between States (Flow is the sum total influence of patterns, in other words, a weakening market or strengthening market. For instance, weakening is measured by many different patterns showing short or selling predictions/setups. So the FLOW is the change between these states, like the Security vs Fear transitions; FLOW also occurs as accumulation momentum in-between compression regimes. While it is true that all traders are greedy; security and fear are the primary distinctions that allow FLOW to occur. They both contain greedy psychological underpinnings.) SEA: Seasonality Timing (Open interest, liquidity behavior, the will of the wealthy. The cyclical or Samsara market nature.) Part 9: Technical List Major Round Numbers A big psychological supplement, measured in increments of 100 pips. Important that the round level has a 25+/- Pip attractor, so keep that in mind when adding round numbers to your measurement. It is easier to remember round numbers and they are more often repeated/identified in financial news (Bloomberg feeds and Reuters feeds, etc) from sources used by commercial/institutions/major funds. As far as this numerology is concerned, always remember to checkem. Random Walk A major identifier of pattern flow. This indicator is the purest example that the market is, infact, very inefficient for meaningful periods of time. It's inefficient because it should remain near or at the . Historical Models/Seasonality In light of VaR limitations, I recommend using historical models instead, simply because they offer some predictive explanation and a visual guide. Like VaR they should not be used or expected to measure or anticipate black swans. Many of these are paywalled, but you can basic versions via google. Since it is a major source of seasonality assessment, this is strongly recommended. Sometimes they are called 'historical capital flows.' Most give a daily open or close level, and a minimum and maximum price level for the day. These models are not useful for intra-day trading, but become more useful the longer-term your position is planned to be... keep that in mind. If you have a programming/statistics background, there is significant opportunity in developing historical models for retail and NNW clients (non-rich people). The granularity of historical models tends to be limited, like that of seasonal values (which tend to be multi-daily at best, but usually weekly or monthly). Find a way to make it intra-daily or even per session and you could print some serious money. How do I know this? Because it would be my money paying you. Major Moving Averages The most important indicator for determining CPG due to the 'market players making markets' rule. HAS TO BE THESE VALUES: 50/100/200 at 1h, the 50/100/200 at 4h, and the 50 or 55/100/200 at D; those are the most important that every trader should use. These are integral to determining , mainly because of their psychological value and relevancy, and when combined with round numbers, offer the strongest psychological technical representation in the market outside of seasonality and COT sentiment. They are usually insufficient for since they are lagging (from high periods), but serve as gravitational levels individually, and also when viewed as compositional. That is, the full range between the highest and lowest can offer a likely zone for current . You can refine that zone further with round numbers, VWAP, a regression, and so on. ADR/ATR The most important indicator for determining extremes; it is loosely derived from VaR and historical modelling ideals; but exists in many different forms and is often graphed to the daily timeframe. It is additionally powerful in a session format, that is, as an NYC session ATR and so on. You should at least be using ATR to calculate daily extremes (ADR), weekly extremes, and monthly extremes. These levels effectively represent the pip range possibility of any pair. Alternatively, it demonstrates the total range a pair can move based on the traditional influence of market supply and demand. It's like knowing 'how much' money is flowing through the pair, which is important because there is a limited amount of money available and willing to be used for trading, thus implying a degree of certainty in the limit of price action (its range). You can think of this cash like energy/nutrient flows; there is a limited amount contained within an ecosystem (sans supply from the Sun) so you know that the ecosystem can only grow so large based on the limited supply of energy available for transfer. ATR+ADR is one of the best measures of volatility. It's the closest thing to true VOLUME you will get without privileged access to prime brokers or settlements providers like the CLS Group. What this range measurement enables is a PREDICTION with DECENT CERTAINTY of how far the price could move within a day, within a week, and within a month. Remember, artifacts of certainty are highly desirable in risk management because so much of trading is based on delusion. It is also an approximation of total influence on the market that an event can cause. Regression This is more effective than a basic channel. Use this for additional visualization guidance; can help determine the angular change in price, a useful measure for detecting the development of new patterns, similar to VWAP. (especially if you have many iterations of regressions running, visualizing shifts in 'angular frequency') VWAP A resource heavy computation, look for weekly and daily VWAPs. I will talk more about VWAPs in the intra-day section, because they have important overlap with session psychology. This is one of the most powerful measuring tools to reach a precise price value, though it is detached from the psychological influences more common to major moving averages or round numbers. You should generally be wary of a precise value, like 133.845 and instead settle for a range or zone: 133.80-134.00. This is to insure that edge remains abundant within your strategy. Market Profile Similar to the other tools, but can be structured to view just the prior day, current day, prior week, etc; it's really just another visualization tool for VaR, which can help you pinpoint likely order areas. That said, it's okay to swipe left on this one. Pivots Pivot points are technically ATR related but the visualization can help. The opening level of the day/week/month in particular; they can be used to find opening zones which often act as return targets across uncertain sessions. You need to use common calculation with pivots for psychological value. No Waddah Attar Pivots, unfortunately, because institutions aren't looking at those. Laguerre/Sine This is not an indicator in itself, but a way for other indicators to calculate or process some market information, a filter. Technically also an Elhers invention. If you have the option to use Laguerre or Sine based filters/calculations, then I strongly recommend it. The Laguerre method fits the ecosystem approach by modeling the market center of price gravity (what they call attraction zones) with a root-finding algorithm (at least when represented by a single indicator). I have found through substantial testing that Laguerre is one of the more accurate filters in forex for . Sine is cycle based. You can find sine based indicators on TV. Turns out it's not hip to be square. Ehlers Cycle Capture This includes a basket of indicators. Somewhat similar in concept to Boyd and Shewhart cycle theories, which we will discuss in the intra-day article; both inspired by radio science and physics. Ehlers has a complicated explanation on his reasoning behind its technical utility, involving what he calls Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis. While I am no expert on wave equation science or radio engineering (not enough money in it), rest assured, his MESA theory is nearly synonymous with the concept of that I explained earlier. It covers most of , unlike , which needs many indicators unfortunately. You might think of this as the ultimate trend following tool. But remember, the is 'a pattern of patterns.' In some cases, the trend may be very disjointed, a series of HHs and LLs could constitute a trend of 'increasing momentum and volatility.' You will need Random Walk and a Regression to smooth those issues over. Currency Correlation & Strength Very comprehensive, but can be hard to read. I will talk more about this for the intra-day article. Suffice to say, instead of comparing EUR pairs to AUD pairs, you should compare AUD pairs to the smoothed average AUD position (looking for an AUD pair that is operating well outside the average behavior zone for other AUD pairs at the time); this helps you identify events through what a normie trader would call arbitrage. Especially useful for taking profit. There are many indicators that can do this. Be warned though, sometimes these events are just the initial move inspired by a major sentiment shift in fundamental or geopolitical event volatility. This risk can be overcome with currency options, which are as underrated as carry conditions. I will also talk about them in one of the last articles. Bollinger It is very important that you only recognize the utility of bollinger on WEEKLY and DAILY timeframes and at a 20 period calculation. If price action breaks the bands on the daily period, you will want to wait for the start of the next week to consider that event valid. That is, valid for entering a position or closing a position. This is the most useful setup for bollinger. The weekly period bollinger allows you to see the long-term bias. Is it shifting? Though major moving averages should be your first preference to check. On-Balance Volume Useful for finding 'fake' tops and bottoms. Though I generally do not advocate double-top or double-bot style trading, it can help show exhaustion and the likely shift of from accumulation momentum into a distribution regime. You will want to use this measurement on intra-day extremes. That is, comparing two moves that happened within the same day, otherwise it will not work correctly. Do not compare two extremes within the same week or across multiple days with this tool. You can only use OBV otherwise on assets with real volume available. Part 10: Caution And remember, for the very long-term traders. The closest approximation to true value (the purest ) when you operate at the 'classical mechanics' level is the relative strength of your interest rate and the broader economic profile of the country printing the currency. Technicals are just a quantum picture that offer opportunity in chaos. Though they help measure the entire ecosystem, you can't get too distracted by just the electrons. For instance, questions like these will require both vantage points: Are the limits of the extremes expanding or shrinking (thereby affecting the risk profile)? Does the pandemic push the down 600 pips or 900? Technicals can give you the routes, but not the solution to the 'if' component of the question. Part 11: The Delonge Defense This list isn't comprehensive, and in full disclosure, I will note that my own systems use a few commercial and novel design technicals that I can't share here. Mad about that? Good. I live by the competitive edge and die by the edge, just like any other market player. The above, however, covers key areas you need to support at minimum and will be enough for many traders to go fulltime (when used in confluence with the other factors like seasonality, carry, fundamentals, etc). The biggest takeaway is the need to start with theory before exploring technicals. This ecosystem explanation offered will cover most of your risk needs as far as forex technicals are concerned. Perhaps you can expand it, or find something even better. I doubt it, but a gentlemen puts up with a ladies fictions. I will talk about what to avoid in the technical universe in the next article. That will probably help more for those of you that are lost and confused Joepedos. Part 12: The Ride Never Ends With proper risk management, your 'stillness' (your observation) in the market can reveal the natural center of gravity, the logic that forms the ecosystem (your theory) and reveals the 'amusement park' all around you. The tycoon stands at the center of this, allowing the flow to come to him (the strategy and technical system). With relative ease he can access this flow, due to its abundance, fulfilling the logic of greed he is bound to (the market psychology). Ideally, the ride never ends, the ferris wheel keeps spinning, the park is open 24/7 365, every decade, every century. That's it. And by the way, when you make it, I expect a discount on my ticket fee.
by CountofCoins
3
Historical similarities between February and SeptemberBack in January/February QQQ was holding a similar regression channel going back to October 11th, 2019. The regression channel was 2.5 standard deviation instead of 3 standard deviation that we had for our covid rally so it wasn't quite as volatile. For distribution days, usually you would use the Index to count them, but since QQQ is so correlated with NAS100 and has some of the biggest companies in the market, i'm also counting distribution days on QQQ. We had 3 distribution days in QQQ by the time we broke the regression channel in February. On Tuesday we broke through the regression channel we've been holding since April 6th. We had 4 distribution days on QQQ when we broke through the regression channel on tuesday. Friday marked a 5th distribution day in QQQ. In February when QQQ broke through the regression channel we attempted to break back through the 21 day EMA multiple times yet we couldn't break above it! So far since our drop on September 3rd, we have tested the 21 day EMA twice and have not been able to break above it. Also another historical thought: there's only been 5 other times since 1999 (the furthest back tradingview has charts for qqq) QQQ has dropped more then 8% in 3 trading days from a 52 week high. Just like always this is not a prediction I am just looking at similarities and differences between historical markets
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Hunter710
1