Estimate Waves 4 and 5 for ConocoPhillipsIn assuming Cycle Wave 3 topped out on January 12, we have laid out estimated points for Waves 4 and 5. Wave 5 will also end Supercycle Wave 3. We have broken it down more on our site.
Historicalanalysis
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Always Drops At Least 2% When ThAnnaly Capital Management has been in a long bearish trend since 2008. On multiple occasions through this trend, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at similar or higher levels, than they are now. These instances have resulted in losses for the stock. I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the stock may drop while it most likely continues its long-term trend.
When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 23.2053. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI slightly below the overbought mark.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3474 and the negative is at 0.6632. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive and negative values are currently at extreme levels and the stock always reverses course.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 90.9492 and D value is 91.4786. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently overbought. The D value has just taken over the K value and the stock may begin to fall within two days.
In the history of this stock, it always slips a minimum of 2.09% when the RSI and positive VI are at or above their current levels. In addition to similar or more extreme RSI and VI levels, the stochastic was overbought in all studied instances, which is also the present case. 19 similar occurrences were studied. The median drop for the stock is 5.09% and the drop takes a median of 12 trading days to occur.
Considering the RSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 2.5% over the next 29 trading days if not sooner.
Mastercard Always Drops When This HappensMastercard has been in a bull trend since 2013. On five occasions through this bull, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at the same or higher levels than they are now. I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the stock may dip while it most likely continues its overall bull trend.
When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 76.2216. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is oversold.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3193 and the negative is at 0.5613. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive and negative values are currently at extreme levels which the stock always retreats.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 95.5822 and D value is 96.0369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently overbought. The D value just crossed above the K value meaning the stock is most likely beginning its descent.
Since the current long-term bull began in 2013, there have been five times when the RSI and the positive VI were at or above their current close while the stochastic was also overbought. These occasions led to a drop in the stock. The median drop occurs over 10 trading days and results in a 5.97% loss. The minimum drop on these occasions was 3.19%.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 3% over the next 25 trading days if not sooner.
APPLE LONG: $151-$182 - CYCLICAL ANALYSIS & REGRESSION FORECASTAnalysing Apple's (AAPL) historical cyclical price movements and using the +/- 2SD of the linear regression to forecast a naive regression price for the next extension phase.
* Extension leg Regression Forecast*
1. For leg A (Extension Leg 1) we use a start point of $12.5 or $33 (phase doesnt have a clear start), or we could assume a mean value of (12.5+33)/2= $22.75.
- Leg A is then, $12.5, $23.5 or $33 divided by $100, which means Leg A is a price increase of = 700%, 310% or 200%
2. For Leg C (Extension Leg 2) the price increased from $55 to $134.5 which is a 145% increase.
3. For Foretasted Leg E (Extension Leg 3), we start at $89 and we derive the price "%" increase by:
- Using the regression of the price increase % from Leg A to Leg C e.g. 145%/700%= 21%; 145/310 = 46%; 145/200= 73%, so this means for each of the calculations we can then assume each is the regression growth differential from Leg C's 145% increase to foretasted Leg E's "%" increase
4. e.g. Foretasted Leg E / Extension Leg 3:
21% of 145% = 31% increase; $89 * 31% = $117
or 46% of 145% = 67% increase ; $89* 67% * $89= $151
or 73% of 145% = 106% increase; $89 * 106% = $182
- Thus Apples Leg E/ Extension Leg 3's Naive Regression Forecast = between $151 and $182
* As shown on graph.
Furthermore, another interesting statistical measure for apples 10year/ 120 Month +/-2SD channel was that the Pearsons R was 0.95. This means that the linear correlation between Apples Price over the measured time period was 95%. 95% of all values observed lie averagely on its linear regression line (middle line of the Stan Dev channel) - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient
- Having such a high Peasons R means the regression line holds true for 95% of past data and therefore is MAY also include 95% of future data thus extrapolating the linear line (or using basic regressions as i have done) is of some statistical significance.
A Pearsons R coefficient of 0.3 means there is little positive correlation between Price and Time, thus extrapolating prices through time using basic regressions/ forecasts is much less statistically prudent, since only 30% of past data correlated about the linear regression line.
