Will Bitcoin Repeat History or Continue The Cup N HandleFalse Break Out Or Cup N Handle Continuation
1. Bitcoins most recent price action is looking pretty similar to what we experiened back in 2019-2020.
2. Bitcoin is also showing signs of a large Cup and Handle pattern which you can clearly see on the weekly.
3. If the Cup N Handle patter decides to continue playing out. I will continue my plan to just DCA on a weekly basis.
4. If History does decides to repeat what happened in 2019-2020. I will still continue to DCA weekly on the way down. BUT Wait until price falls into my 62-87.6% Fib Zone or $37,750-$22,500 to start Doubling Down on my DCA
5. My Plan is keep my blood pressure low not to predict the tops or bottoms. But to put myself in a good enough position no matter the market direction. And to continue my simple strategy to DCA.
Thank You and God Bless.
Historyrepeatsitself
APT ANALYSIS🚀#APT Analysis :
🔮As we can see in the chart of #APT that there is a formation of "Falling Wedge Pattern". Some time ago the same structure was made and it performed well and this time also the same is happening with a perfect breakout
🔰Current Price: $8.69
🎯 Target Price: $13.15
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #APT price action. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️
#APT #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR
Apple’s iPhone 16 Launch: Post-Event Pullback?Looking at the weekly chart (1W) of Apple (AAPL) with the vertical lines marking the dates of iPhone launch events, we can attempt to identify a more consistent pattern around these events.
Key Observations:
Pre-Launch Price Rally: In nearly all the iPhone launch events, we observe a notable pre-event rally. This suggests that investors tend to buy Apple stock in anticipation of the product reveal, leading to upward momentum in the weeks leading up to the launch. Magnitude of Rally: In many cases, the stock gains significant value leading up to the event, as investors and traders speculate on the success of the new product.
Post-Launch Behavior: Short-Term Pullbacks: A clear pattern emerges where, immediately after the event, Apple's stock often experiences a pullback or consolidation. This appears to be a classic "sell the news" reaction, where investors who had bought the stock in anticipation of the event sell to lock in profits. For example, following the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 launches, we saw short-term pullbacks lasting a few weeks. Long-Term Trend Continuation: Despite the short-term corrections, the long-term trajectory of AAPL tends to remain upward. After most iPhone launches, even if there is a post-event pullback, the stock eventually resumes its upward trend. This long-term bullish trend suggests that Apple’s underlying business remains strong, supported by sustained iPhone sales and other product lines.
More Defined Patterns: Pre-Launch Rally: Across most launches (iPhone 6, 7, X, and 12 in particular), the stock rallies leading up to the event by 10-15% on average. This suggests a strong investor confidence buildup before the actual product reveal. Post-Event Decline: In many instances (notably the iPhone 6s, 7, and 12), there is a consistent 5-10% decline after the launch. This sell-off usually lasts a few weeks to a couple of months, after which the stock resumes its longer-term upward trajectory.
Current iPhone 16 Presentation (Today): Pre-Event Setup: Currently, AAPL has shown some weakness in the weeks leading up to the iPhone 16 presentation. The stock has pulled back slightly, breaking the pattern of a strong pre-launch rally seen in previous years. Technical Indicators: The MACD is showing some bearish momentum, which suggests that the stock might be due for a further pullback post-launch, consistent with the historical pattern of profit-taking after these events.
Potential Short-Term and Long-Term Strategy: Short-Term: Given the clear pattern of a post-event pullback, traders might anticipate a brief decline following today’s iPhone 16 presentation. This would align with the past pattern where Apple stock typically declines by 5-10% after the launch. Long-Term: Despite short-term volatility, Apple’s long-term uptrend has remained intact. Investors who are more focused on the long-term may consider any post-launch correction as a buying opportunity, as AAPL tends to resume its upward trend within a few weeks to months after these events.
Conclusion: The most consistent pattern around Apple’s iPhone launch events is a pre-launch rally followed by a post-launch pullback. This sell-the-news behavior often creates a short-term decline, but Apple’s long-term growth trajectory remains strong. For today’s iPhone 16 presentation, based on historical data, we may see a similar short-term correction, but long-term investors could view this as an opportunity to add to their positions.
"History Repeats Itself" The Importance Of Historical Areas i disscussed the importance of historical areas on all charts and the saying " history repeats itself " is % right u should strongly believe it. and if we applies this to the GBPUSD pair I will see a very good potential in selling it now as the same area ( 1.30300 - 1.30200 ) did this before and pushed the price more that 300 pips easily.
tell what u think in the comments.
ETH ANALYSIS🚀#ETH Analysis :
🔮As we can see in the chart of #ETH that there is a formation of Descending Channel Pattern. Some time ago the same structure was made and it performed well and this time also the same is happening with a perfect breakout
🔰Current Price: $3507
🎯 Target Price: $4000
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #ETH price action. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️
#ETH #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR
What comes down, must go upLook to the past for some patterns. It seems like when things get moving, they getting moving and fast. Like really really fast. Out of no where, we'll see a spike in dominance which leads to a pump price. With the Ripple case being speculated on coming to a close, things might just interesting.
Right on time with the charts ;)
A positive view - Let's Bear up Let's go back in while, price seems to be rejecting at resistance level back in 2018.
we see a huge fall after 2018 falling as far as 79%, price is rejected at support which was formed back in 2014-2015.
Moral of the story : we check history to forecast present!!
Some Ethics :
1. resistance breakout after long span of time (3 years)
2. target identified as the previous range between S\R levels
3. 346-357 was the resistance range since 2018 may act as strong support in upcoming event
4. I used super-trend to check if price continuation persist on same level
Marking multiple levels based on previous rejection and price retest
1. 628.05 - 659.90 as resistance range
2. 515.85 - 551 as support range
3. recent rejection from 446, price hits target of 515 which was it's previous support (acting resistance level)
4. With the rejection on resistance we also see a shooting star formation of approx. 4% with which we consider a fall with size of candle.
5. But, in last session we saw a momentum, price peaked up but did not resist at resistance and fell by 4.7%
If we consider previous S\R levels on basis of fall and rise, we can assume that it may fall by more 3-4% and we may see short covering at this level @ 483 and may see upper levels of 515 to 551.
Personal views only, please do your own research ->
Let's see if movement goes along
How the Halving Will Impact the Bitcoin Market ? Bitcoin Halving: A Comprehensive Overview and Its Impact on the Market
Bitcoin halving, an event that occurs every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), reduces the reward for miners who validate transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain by 50%. This mechanism is designed to control inflation and maintain the finite supply of Bitcoin, which is capped at 21 million coins.
Objectives of Halving
Controlled Inflation: Halving aims to counteract the inflationary effects of new Bitcoin creation by gradually reducing the issuance rate. This helps maintain the scarcity of the asset and its value over time. Unlike fiat currencies, where central banks can arbitrarily print money, Bitcoin's halving mechanism ensures a predictable and finite supply, preventing uncontrolled inflation.
Sustainable Network Growth : By slowing down the mining reward, halving encourages miners to operate more efficiently and focus on long-term network security rather than solely pursuing short-term profits. This shift incentivizes miners to invest in reliable hardware and infrastructure, ensuring the stability and resilience of the Bitcoin network.
BraveNewCoin Liquid index
Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Price
Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been associated with significant price increases. This can be attributed to several factors:
Supply Reduction: As the mining reward decreases, the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market slows down. This reduced supply, coupled with consistent demand, can lead to price appreciation. For instance, after the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin's price surged by over 200% within a year.
Market Anticipation: Investors often anticipate the positive impact of halving on price and start buying Bitcoin in advance of the event, driving up demand and price. This phenomenon is evident in the price movements leading up to each halving event.
Psychological Effect: Halving serves as a milestone in Bitcoin's roadmap, reinforcing its scarcity and long-term potential, attracting more investors and boosting market sentiment. The halving event serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's finite supply and its potential as a store of value.
The Upcoming Halving in April 2024
The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur on April 19, 2024, at block height 840,000. This event is highly anticipated by the cryptocurrency community, and many analysts and experts are predicting a substantial price increase following the halving.
Price Predictions:
While price predictions are inherently uncertain, some analysts have made projections based on historical trends and market sentiment:
Matrixport: $125,000 by the end of 2024
Pantera Capital: Over $147,000 in 2025
Bernstein: Potential rally in mining company stocks
Potential Correction:
While many anticipate a price surge, some analysts caution against excessive optimism and acknowledge the possibility of a temporary price correction following the halving:
JPMorgan: Price could drop to $42,000
Implications for Miners
With the reduced mining reward, miners need to adapt their operations to remain profitable. This may involve:
Optimizing Mining Efficiency: Miners will need to upgrade their hardware or switch to more energy-efficient mining pools to reduce operational costs. This could lead to consolidation in the mining industry, as less efficient miners may be forced to exit the market.
Focusing on Transaction Fees: As the block reward decreases, transaction fees will become a more significant source of income for miners. This may encourage miners to support initiatives that increase network usage and transaction volume.
Diversifying Revenue Streams: Miners may explore alternative revenue streams, such as offering mining services or developing other blockchain-related products. This diversification could help miners adapt to the changing dynamics of the cryptocurrency landscape.
Conclusion
Bitcoin halving is a crucial event that shapes the cryptocurrency landscape. While it has historically led to price appreciation, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. The upcoming halving in April 2024 is expected to be a significant turning point for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
Additional Notes:
The halving process is embedded in Bitcoin's code and is an automated mechanism, not influenced by any individual or organization. This decentralized nature ensures the integrity and predictability of the halving process.
Halving events occur at predetermined intervals and are not subject to any changes or delays. This fixed schedule provides miners and investors with clear expectations and allows for informed decision-making.
The halving mechanism is designed to ensure the long-term sustainability and value of Bitcoin by maintaining its finite supply and aligning incentives for miners. This carefully crafted design contributes to Bitcoin's resilience and potential as a long-term asset.
BTC Price History repeated itself pretty accuratelyI updated an idea I posted at the beginning of the year, but I wanted to make a separate posting to make it clear.
I looked back at the candlestick pattern from 2018 to the beginning of 2021 and replicated it on September 2022 to June 2023 (the BLUE pattern)
The price prediction played out pretty well in the following months up until right now, November 4, 2023. It's not dead perfect, but it's surprisingly very similar so there is a lot to learn from it and you could've made many short-term trades based on that.
The price target of 38k was preshot too early, but we see that it's coming pretty close to it right now.
BITCOIN ABOUT TO REPEAT THE SAME PATTERNAs you can see in the chart, we have been in range for 52 days.
The previous range, lasted 53 days, if history repeats itself, between today and Thursday we should see a breakout to the downside and a retest of the 25k level.
There are two main coincidences:
1- Almost the same downside movement distance to the major support (9%).
2- The same downside movement from the top of the range till the bottom of it (13%).
However, we can observe a great difference, that it's the Volume. The previous range had 15.5M volume meanwhile this one had only 4.5M. That's three times less volume. Thing that can Indicate a very big move incoming.
If what I say is correct, it could be a good choice to:
- Open a short now till 25k.
- In 25k Open a long till 35k.
This is only a simple observation. Always do your own research.
I would be very happy to see your opinion in the comments, if you agree, remember to give me a boost.
History Repeats Itself with LINK?I have two different trading channels highlighted on the chart. The first predates the post-corona bull market. The second shows a long period of consolidation on the Chainlink weekly chart.
The first channel lasted for a year before LINK exploded to ATH over $50. The second channel marks a year in May 2023. Chainlink has completed a full market cycle and if this period of consolidation matches the last one, we'll see some explosive moves upward from Chainlink sometime in the next six weeks. This upward move should find resistance at the 200MA, but that will also come about 2x from the current price point.
Enjoy, NFA.
BTC Will History Repeat Itself Like OCT 2018?Historical data are very important, we cannot ignore them as a source of reference, especially on large timeframes like Day or above.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $19,419 after a surge of nearly 2% in the last 24hrs. Meanwhile, the same is with Ethereum, Cardano, Solana, Polygon among others, especially low-cap tokens last 48 hrs. Comparing Bitcoin’s price actions prior to the midterm elections of 2018 with those of 2022 shows a strikingly similar bear market trend.
For instance, BTC price trended lower in 2018 while holding a horizontal level near $6,000 as support, only to break below it after the midterm elections. With the midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the said breakdown scenario could occur sooner or later
For swing traders, I think we need to wait a little longer for the price to break out of this pattern and make a big move.
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If this is your first time coming to my idea, thank you very much for taking the time to pay attention to it. My opinions are all subjective and personal. It might be right, or wrong, but there is one thing I can guarantee you will never go wrong - always set the SL for each entry before setting the TP for it.
Don't forget to Follow, and comment your thoughts below, or simply a Boost button if you found it helpful. That encourages me a lot to share my ideas!
Pop then drop in 1300s like BubonicChoose your own ETH "Black Death" adventure, likely will mimic the Bubonic Plauge (aka black death) and turn sour in the mid 1300s. The solid black path is the adventure I choose because its the most likely. Dashed black path 2nd most likely. Dotted black path not likely unless Jesus comes back.
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Comparison of BTC bear markets (2015,2018,2022)There are 3 charts of the BTC/USD Index where you can see 200 days EMA - blue line (moving average exponential) and 365 days EMA - black line. In all three scenarios, we can see the crossover of both EMAs which means to be a very strong bearish signal.
In 2015 after the beginning of the second BTC bear market in DEC 2013, we got an 85% drop-down in the price and it lasted 403 days. After the bottom in JAN 2015, BTC tried to recover and it was showing a nice buying power but bears were fully controlling the market at that time and BTC declined again in AUG 2015 where was created a Double Bottom figure.
But most interesting for us is that after the crossover of 200 and 365 EMAs the price decreased by 53% in NOV-DEC 2014.
2018 was a third bear market which started in DEC 2017 with an 83-84% drop-down in the price and it lasted 362 days. In this cycle, we can see the same situation with the crossover as in the second bear market.
In the present time on the chart, we got exactly what was previously twice and it could lead to a new strong movement down to 13000 - 14000 price level.
May the profit be with you!
BTC/LUNA Comparison??This is just pure observation. Is it me or is BINANCE:LUNAUSDT following along with BINANCE:BTCUSDT ??
As im expecting BITCOIN to drop to the high 20ks are we likely to see LUNA more than halve in value or to possibly even get down to the 40s before we get the start of the next big run.
Just a thought. Let me know what you think..