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HKDUSD

HKEX to find resistance at psychological level?HS50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 19995 (stop at 20155) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. The Ichimoku cloud and 200-day moving average provide further resistance and we look to set shorts in early trade to capture this selling opportunity. The weekly pivot is at 20000. The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 19605 and 19525 Resistance: 20850 / 22790 / 24770 Support: 18680 / 17710 / 16330 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
HShort
by VantageMarkets
HKDUSD Short swing trade with 4 huge R/R possibilitiesThe HKDUSD has NEVER broken and closed above 0.12899 (approx) since 2007 when it was digitized. Therefore, even though history is not guaranteed to predict the future, it seems highly probable that price will fall. This is one idea to set your alarm for. I have set out 4 possible trades with varying R/R all over 5/1. I have defined extremely aggressive ideas here as a heavy short is on the cards. 1) R/R = 5/1 2) R/R = 8/1 3) R/R = 18.33/1 4) R/R = 26/1
Short
by JayStieren
Will Hong Kong abandon the peg against the USD?Will Hong Kong abandon the peg against the USD? The financial hub of Asia, which connects the East to the West has been in the middle of pissing contest between the United States and China, not to mention their domestic struggle between them and China. If protests for autonomy in Hong Kong continue, and President Trump implements drastic foreign policy measures against Hong Kong, extreme capital outflows may ensue, forcing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to abandon its peg on the U.S. dollar. Could Donald Trump’s election woes force the Peg to break? As the November Election edges nearer, President Donald Trump risks losing the presidency due to his mismanagement of the Coronavirus. David Rocke describes his reopening the American Economy as “gambling for resurrection.” A branch of game theory, which essentially states everything that the President is doing with regards to the Coronavirus is perfectly rational. He has two choices: He does nothing drastic, the death increase, therefore basically ensuring his loss in the election. Or he reopens the economy, maybe squashes the curve, and promotes that it was a success, giving him a higher chance of winning the election. If that doesn’t work, well, he was going to lose the election anyway. As the Jobless claims reached 41 Million yesterday, President Trump is losing the grip on the election. Desperation may be a giant risk for Hong Kong’s peg. However, there is one thing the President has full control over – foreign policy. With a China conference set tomorrow, there a high possibility given his election chances that he implements drastic sanctions against Hong Kong to please his supporters. This is alongside Secretary Pompeo announcing that “It could no longer verify Hong Kong’s autonomy from China,” which gave it special trade exceptions with the U.S. This may put upwards pressure against the Hong Kong Dollar, which is pegged against the USD as the financial instability from the sanctions may cause extreme capital outflows. However, this alone may not cause a capital outflow, nor may the capital outflow force the peg to break. Hong Kong may impose restrictions on capital outflows for the time being. History of the Hong Kong / U.S. Dollar Peg As the financial hub connecting the West to the East, Hong Kong teased investors with its free-flowing capital policies, with a promise of financial stability and consistency. In 1983, the currency was pegged to the USD. This was due tp Concerns regarding the future of Hong Kong after 1997, when the handover of control from the British to China was set to take place. The rate at which the Hong Kong dollar was pegged to the U.S. Dollar has changed over time, however, for the past 37 years, it has remained pegged to the U.S. currency. For the past 12 years since the Great recession, Hong Kong has flourished being the brokers between the East and the West. The pegged currency gave the country stability when it came to trade and investors. However, history shows that pegged currencies are disastrous in extreme conditions. This was the case in the Thai Bhat in 1997 and the Argentinian Peso in 2000. In the case of the Thai Bhat, Thailand was experiencing high levels of growth from 1992 onwards as banks loosened restrictions, causing a lending boom and inflated real estate prices. However, from 1995 onward, growth slowed, with investors increasingly worrying about the returns on their investments. This caused a massive capital outflow out of Thailand, devaluing the Thai Bhat. The government tried to prop up the currency by using its allocated $38B USD foreign reserves. However, in half a year from the start of 1997, their foreign reserves dropped 93% to $2.65B before they stopped the regime. The That Bhat subsequently depreciated against the USD, from 25 to 52 Thai Bhat per $1 USD, effectively abandoning the peg between the Bhat and the USD. Similarly, the Argentinian Peso shared the same fate Argentina’s government was citing the control of inflation as the reason for the currency peg. However, a multitude of socioeconomic factors such as an increase in income inequality and external shocks driving interest rates higher would see Argentina’s growing economy stall. With the Peso pegged to the USD 1:1, there was pressure for Argentina to keep the peg as most of its debt was denominated in U.S. dollars. However, restrictions on withdraws of 1000 Pesos/USD dollars pushed the sitting President, and the Minister of Economy resigned. The new finance minister imposed a new exchange rate of 1.4 to 1 U.S. dollar, however, what sealed the abandoning of the peg was when “pesification” of all the accounts in Argentina – which changed every single dollar that was in USD to Peso. This saw an increase in demand for the U.S. dollar – increasing the exchange rate from 1.4 pesos to 1 USD to around 4 Peso to 1 USD. Currently, 1 U.S. Dollar sits at 68 Argentinian Pesos. – Further reading, “Convertibility Law” What is the Catalyst for Hong Kong? It will require a multitude of events to occur at the same time. The Hong Kong protests, for the most part, have been mainly domestic, with geopolitical parties watching from the sidelines. However, with China putting its foot down and enforcing national security law, the eyes of democracy have caught attention. President Trump stated that “we are not happy with China” with Larry Kudlow stating that China has made a “huge mistake” in passing the national security regarding Hong Kong. Carrie Lam, the Chief Executive of Hong Kong, assures Hong Kong citizens that the law will not undermine the freedom Hong Kong citizens face. However, she is on the side for the law passing, stating that “regrettably, the current legal system and enforcement mechanism for Hong Kong to safeguard national security are inadequate or even ‘defenseless.’ Despite returning to the Motherland for 23 years, Hong Kong has yet to enact laws to curb acts and activities that seriously undermine national security.” Currently, Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority (HKMA) foreign reserve sits at around $441B U.S. dollar with Hong Kong using the Fed’s repo facility to its full advantage. The HKMA has the goal of pegging the currency between 7.75 – 7.85 HKD for 1 USD, and currently sits around the strong end of the band at 7.752 as the HKMA bolsters the strength of the HKD during the Coronavirus. This may be in anticipation of a devaluing in the currency because of the Coronavirus and domestic tensions. Tensions are slowly picking up, putting pressure on the peg. With the election on the horizon for Trump alongside China taking a strict stance against Hong Kong, fireworks may ensure as both sides battle it out. With Hong Kong directly in the firing line, all eyes are on what President Donald Trump imposes on Hong Kong tomorrow. The HKMA has enough foreign reserves to continue to prop up the HKD, given current circumstances. But the uncertainty with Hong Kong has finally started to settle in – not a feeling you want when your country was built on ensuring certainty and consistency within the Financial Markets. There is a chance that capital in Hong Kong talks themselves into pulling their money out of Hong Kong. If that occurs, the peg on the Hong Kong Dollar may serve the same fate as Thailand in 1997.
by BlackBull_Markets
Forex News: Hong Kong’s 11th Week of ProtestForex News – Hong Kong’s biggest-ever street protest has come to its 11th week, and more are joining the calls for a resolution. Last week, Hong Kongers took out their money from ATMs. The goal was to prove the city was more than just a cash cow. The movement has further escalated the instability due to the protests. The city’s currency has also suffered. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that he was “concerned” about the probability of a violent Chinese crackdown. Last week, he seemingly tied up the US-China trade discussions to the HK protests, calling for a humane resolution. Trump added that he would talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping and urge him to negotiate directly with protesters. The protests have crippled the city’s currency due to the instability. Such a situation will apparently continue until one of the sides give in. According to certain reports, China is moving its troops to Hong Kong to intervene. HK police, meanwhile, claimed that their forces were enough without China’s intervention More on FinanceBrokerage
Long
by Financebroker
Hong Kongers want Massive WithdrawalsFX News – As the protests in Hong Kong continue, people are trying out something new to fight back. Protesters are calling for massive ATM withdrawals, taking out as much money as possible from their banks. They could also change their currency into US dollars to protect their own assets. The goal is to send the People’s Republic of China and HK Chief Executive Carrie Lam a message. And that message is this: Hong Kong is more than just a city with cash. According to the student who started the “Cashout HKD to USD,” the people have already withdrawn over HK$70 million. According to this student, the tactic would work because Lam and the PBOC “care much about the economy.” The protests have been going on for nearly 11 weeks. FX News: the Demands of the Protesters The movement, according to the student, demands five things from the Hong Kong government. The first one is to completely withdraw the extradition bill, not just suspend it. The bill, which has initially been the center of the protests, would allow extradition to China for criminal offenses. For the Hong Kongers, this would allow the authoritarian China greater control over democratic Hong Kong. The second demand is to retract the proclamation that the protests were riots. Third, pull out the criminal charges against protesters and investigate police abuses toward them. Fourth is to dissolve the Legislative Council by administrative order. And lastly, implement the dual universal suffrage. Put simply, this would allow Hong Kongers to vote on their leaders without having to ask China’s permission. Meanwhile, other activists voiced out concerns over Hong Kong’s currency because of the instability. This is where the rationale of converting their currency into the US dollar comes into play. The goal is to maintain value in US dollars and other foreign currencies. This is among the biggest protests in the recent history of Asian countries.
Short
by Financebroker