Hang Seng Slips after New Disappointing Chinese DataLast week’s soft CPI report showed that China has not escaped deflationary pressures and today’s data reaffirmed the weak consumer demand environment, as retail sales rose just 2% y/y in June and the worst print since late-2022. Adding to the woes, the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 and the slowest pace in more than a year.
HKG33 slips after the new disappointing data and remains in peril of breaching the ascending trend line from the 2024 lows and the 50% Fibonacci of the advance from that low (at around 17,200). That could open the door to further losses towards 16,000, but we are cautious around such moves.
This week’s new disappointing releases may aggravate concerns around the economy, but also raise the chances of more stimulus by Beijing just as the Third Plenum kicks off, where officials will have the chance to discuss supportive measures.
HKG33 can find renewed support as a result and last week it managed to gain ground, overcoming the poor inflation report. Although the upside remains unfriendly, the index tries to hold the initiative about the EMA200 (black line) that keeps it on track for 18,736, but sustained advance towards this year’s peak 19,794 does not look easy.
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HKG33
Hang Seng in Remains in Peril after Weak Chinese InflationChina’s post pandemic recovery is bumpy, troubled by a distressed property market, subdued factory activity and weak consumer demand. Today’s data showed that the country has not escaped deflationary pressures, with CPI hovering around zero for more than a year now. Inflation came in at +0.2% y/y in June, lower than expected and the weakest since January. On a monthly basis, it contracted by 0.2%. Strained Sino-Western relations meanwhile add to the woes, with the latest episode in the trade wars coming from the European Union, which slapped provisional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs).
This unfavorable mix keeps pressure on HKG33, which runs its second straight losing month. The index is now in risk of breaching the ascending trend line from this year’s lows that would bring 16K in the spotlight.
On the other hand, Beijing has been taking measures to support the economy – even if timid – and more action could be announced later in the month, while weak inflation puts pressure on the central bank for rate cuts. Furthermore, the economy has shown some encouraging signs and the country pushes ahead with the new three pillars of growth consisting of solar, EVs and electric batteries.
HKG33 is in profitable territory for the year after the recent relief rally and can find support around the current levels. This would give it the opportunity to reclaim the EMA200 (blackline) and regain the initiative, but the upside is unfriendly.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Hang Seng Tries to Hold Key Support Amidst Mixed Chinese DataThe relief rally of the past four-months fades as HKG33 concluded a four-week losing streak, leading to a challenge of pivotal support levels. The Hong Kong index tests the 38.2% Fibonacci of this year’s low/high advance, creating risk for a deeper correction towards the 61.8% level.
China’s post pandemic recovery is bumpy, underscored by distressed property sector, subdued factory activity and weak domestic demand, with CPI hovering around zero for the past year. Today’s data showed a deceleration in industrial production to 5.6% y/y and another drop in house prices.
Retail sales grew 3.7% y/y though, offering reasons for optimism. Furthermore, China’s real estate market may be in poor shape, but Beijing has found new growth pillars in electric vehicles, car batteries and solar cells. Adding to hopes for better days ahead, both the IMF and the World Bank recently upgraded their China GDP forecasts.
HKG33 finds reprieve today and tries to hold the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci and the 200 Days EMA (blue line. Successful effort will give it the opportunity to retake 18,736 and the chance to push for higher highs (19,794), but the latter has a higher degree of difficulty.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
HKEX bias is still for lower levels.HS50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 18100 (stop at 18300)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A higher correction is expected.
The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 18100 level.
Our profit targets will be 17600 and 17510
Resistance: 18015 / 18520 / 18915
Support: 17375 / 17040 / 16560
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
HKEX to stall at recent high?HS50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 19220 (stop at 19405)
Price action looks to be forming a top.
The 200 day moving average should provide resistance at 19235.
This is negative for sentiment and the downtrend has potential to return.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 19220 level.
Our profit targets will be 18770 and 18670
Resistance: 19840 / 20400 / 20965
Support: 18015 / 17710 / 16320
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
HKEX to find buyers at previous resistance?HS50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 19450 (stop at 19250)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A lower correction is expected.
Short term bias has turned positive.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 19430 level.
Our profit targets will be 19950 and 20000
Resistance: 20400 / 20965 / 21770
Support: 19140 / 18015 / 16325
HK50 to stall at current swing high?HS50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 19469 (stop at 19619)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Price action looks to be forming a top.
The 200 day moving average should provide resistance at 19458.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 19485 level.
Our profit targets will be 19069 and 19009
Resistance: 19650 / 20850 / 22790
Support: 18680 / 17710 / 16320
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
HKEX to stall at current high?HS50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 20305 (stop at 20425)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the high.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 20305 level.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 20005 and 19650
Resistance: 20850 / 22790 / 24770
Support: 19650 / 18680 / 17710
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Buying HKEX on dips.HS50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 20260 (stop at 20090)
Selling pressure from 20753 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned.
The current move lower is expected to continue.
Short term bias is mildly bullish.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 20210 level.
Our profit targets will be 20690 and 20770
Resistance: 20850 / 22790 / 24770
Support: 19650 / 18680 / 17710
lease be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Hang Seng Index to turnaround?HS50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell a break of 20150 (stop at 20455)
Previous support located at 20250.
Previous resistance located at 20500.
Price action has stalled at good resistance levels and currently trades just below here (20600).
We expect a reversal in this move.
A move through 20150 will confirm the bearish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 19400 and 19200
Resistance: 20500 / 20525 / 20600
Support: 20250 / 20150 / 19500
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
HK33 looking for a limited rally?HS50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 19820 (stop at 20150)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A higher correction is expected.
The medium term bias remains bearish.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 19820 level.
Our profit targets will be 18880 and 18680
Resistance: 19650 / 20850 / 22790
Support: 18680 / 17710 / 16330
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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HKEX to see early pessimism?HS50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 20900 (stop at 20670)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A higher correction is expected.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
We look to buy dips.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 21555 and 22590
Resistance: 22590 / 24770 / 27550
Support: 20875 / 19525 / 18580
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
HSI1! 2022 MAR 21 Week
HSI1! 2022 MAR 21 Week
18037 support returned strongly.
Wait for reaction at 22703 as market returns to test previous breakdown and
channel area.
Weekly: Ultra High volume up bar closing on high =
possible weakness
Daily: Very high volume reversal followed by average
volume up bar = strength
H4: Market up on reducing bullish volume =
weakness
Entry will be based off the price reaction to levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2022 MAR 14 Week
HSI1! 2022 MAR 14 Week
With the break of 21000, next level to test will be
18XXX region.
Weekly: High volume down bar closing at low = weakness
Daily: High volume down bar closing at low = weakness
H4: Low vol down bar closing at low =
weakness
Entry will be based off the price reaction to levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2022 FEB 28 Week
HSI1! 2022 FEB 28 Week
Short preference last week proved very fruitful.
The spring over the last daily bar shows rejection
of lower prices and demand overcoming supply (D/S).
Scenarios:
1) Long on dip opportunity in the 22389-23000 region
as temporary strength returns
2) Should Support 22389 fail, short opportunity on test
of break down area to next demand region
Weekly: High volume down bar closing off low = strength
Daily: Average volume down bar closing at high = strength
H4: Average volume shakeout bar closing at high = strength
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2022 FEB 14 Week
HSI1! 2022 FEB 14 Week
Market tested again previous supply area.
- No higher high was made
- No commitment as market nears recent high.
Temporary weakness expected for long opportunity
on retracement.
Weekly: Average volume up bar closing off high = weakness
Daily: Average volume down bar closing on low = weakness
H4: Temporary weakness
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2022 FEB 07 Week
HSI1! 2022 FEB 07 Week
Temporary weakness expected as market is resisted at 24600.
Preference is to long on retracement.
Weekly: Very Low Volume up bar closing near high = weakness
Daily: Very low volume up bar closing near high = weakness
H4: Temporary weakness
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2022 JAN 17 Week
HSI1! 2022 JAN 17 Week
Last week scenario 1 played out - HS exited trend line,
breakout was tested and now price is at a previous
supply zone. (24391 and HTF brown dashed trend line)
Possible scenarios are mapped out
1) Break of 24391 and resistance becomes support
2) Pullback below 24391 to test for supply before
continuing on the uptrend
3) Do note the possibility of a formation of a larger
rotation area 24391 - 22663,of which testing of the
bottom of the range will not be a surprise.
Daily: Average volume down bar closing off low =
demand is present. Next bar should close higher
in order for strength to continue.
H4: Weak closes may see price heading lower
temporarily, leading to scenario2.
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Nov 29 Week
HSI1! 2021 Nov 29 Week
This week's trade plan will still be guided by the trendline.
If long, wait for price to come down on low volume and find support.
If market rotates, stay out
If market breaks resistance and turns support = long
If market breaks resistance and closes below it, will short when resisted.
Weekly: Average volume down bar closing near low = weakness
Daily: High volume down bar closing a little off low = sone demand
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Nov 01 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Nov 01 Week
Market was resisted at 26227 and theme of the week was short. No sign of
strength yet. Probably may test previous rotation (grey area).
If long, wait for price to come down on low volume and find support.
If market rotates, stay out
If market breaks resistance and turns support = long
If market breaks resistance and closes below resistance, and resisted, will short
Weekly: 2 bar Bearish reversal, Average volume down bar = Weakness
Daily & H: Market came down on reduced volume, bearish momentum may be waning.
But no confirmation of strength yet.
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )