Bullish potential detected for HLIFollowing a few stocks in the ASX 300 of particular interest, HLI represents a potential bullish opportunity should momentum continue and newer highs be made past the current position. I'll cover this more in the upcoming weekly video, however as can be seen in the chart, the stock price has respected prior support of $3.47 and thus far intraday is also achieving good support from the $3.62 level, aligning with technical indicators of RSI and DMI. Much talk has been devoted to increased stress amongst mortgage borrowers in Australia in the media today, which adds further impetus to this potential trade.
HLI
HLI to take a breather?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on September 24, 2021 with a closing price of 95.39.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 94.85 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.084% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.597% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.123% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 12 trading bars; half occur within 31 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Is HLI next to find one of these price targets?Here is another interesting pick. In the case of HLI, 4 of my algorithms signaled a BUY on April 16, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move up, but sometimes it may continue to move down first. We are not quite past the point of the stock charting a permanent course higher as I have laid out, but it is off to a good start.
I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the Daily chart after a BUY signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement downward before the stock finally moved upward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement downward, before the stock moved upward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential bottom in this instance.
The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final top. I would consider the movement a success once it reaches a level equivalent with the bottom of the smaller green box. This may happen earlier or later the box that is outlined, but the most like location is in this box.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could rise the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never rise (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
