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Momentum Back for Bitcoin??Bitcoin has made a comeback, finding support just above $28.8K, which was a level projected using inverse Fibonacci levels anchored by last week's range. We have currently broken resistance and have achieved the $30K's once more. In fact, we are now just above $31K, which was the lower bound of last week's range. We are still witnessing some momentum here, but are in the middle of a vacuum zone to $32.3K. Anticipate resistance from this upper bound. The Kovach OBV has gained notable strength, but we still have a few key levels above to break before we can safely be assured that genuine bull momentum has returned to the crypto markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
3
HODL on a little longer before buying more.... Just an idea of HODL's current pattern. It appears to be built on shaky foundation...still a bunch of noise about CHIA on the boards however the figures are so wildly entertaining it would be a 1 - mil long shot that Tony scored the deal the way people are talking. Currently we are bleeding based on BTC cost...how long can the soccer star keep up the appearance before he has to unload some to cover costs? I was a fan...now I'm a skeptic....still holding for an exit but not happy with the current situation.
CSE:HODL
by Honkytime
5
Bitcoin Start Of New Multi-Year Bear Market? I Don't Think So...There have been many people calling for a sub $20,000 Bitcoin and the start of a new multi-year bear market? I do not believe that will be the likely scenario considering we have already crashed and the major selloffs have already happened. I highlighted the 3 most major sell of volume sticks since 2017. It has been clear this period has been turning out to be a consolidation phase in the market as we continue to move sideways waiting for a strong move to the downside or upside. Consider this: * Buy and sell volume has been getting very low. * We now have over 200 days of support trading above $30,000 * We only have 28 days of support between $18k - $20k. * $30,000 is a way stronger and more important support level than $20,000. * Tesla has not dumped their Bitcoin Holdings. * Intuitions are still more interested in Bitcoin than ever before despite the volatility and crash. * Bitcoin hash rate has slowly been recovering. * This is the longest period of extreme fear registered from The Fear & Greed Index ( We are still continuing to be extremely fearful). * Bitcoin mining is continuing to become more renewable and miners have been re-locating mining outside of China at a rapid rate. * On Chain Metrics indicate large whale addresses have been accumulating between $28k - $30k. * This most recent crash has been the biggest in crypto history considering the amount of money that has left the space (1 Trillion in under a month). * Countries adopting Bitcoin as legal tender will continue to grow. * Bitcoin is becoming more desensitized to Elon Musk and China FUD. * Crypto luxury transactions accelerate at Sotheby's. * Sotheby's recently sold a rare 101.38-carat diamond for $12.3 million in cryptocurrency. I say all of this because market sentiment is what drives price. This market has matured greatly since the last bear market. We will come out of this state of extreme fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the months to come. We are now back at them bottom of $30k. Can we go lower? Yes but how low? We're still in a downtrend and the charts are pointing down. Expect another drop to $28k as long as we're still in this phase. I don't believe we are starting a multi year bear market "just yet". The fundamentals going forward are more way more bullish than bearish throughout the rest of this year. If you're at a loss I'd just say continue to HODL through this and be patient. Think about the bigger picture and believe in your investment. This is the future of economics and finance. The bears want you to sell at these lower prices and want you to believe Bitcoin is back on its death bed. Most of my portfolio is staked throughout this period. Much peace, love, health, and wealth everybody.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by peacefuljustin
Bitcoin Accumulation or More Pain to Come?As I've been saying. The best case scenario for Bitcoin during these upcoming months is to hold and stay above the crucial $30,000 level of support. Our worse case scenario is having daily and weekly candle closes below $30,000. Looking at the monthly chart we're approaching bearish divergence on the MACD and most likely will diverge. The question is can $30,000 continue to hold as the market continues to slowly sell off. How much more fearful can we get? We are now back at the bottom of this channel once again. As long as we're at these levels expect Bitcoin to come back down and re-test the lows $28,750. This is nothing we haven't already seen. I can smell the fear, uncertainty, and doubt through my screen every time we range back down in the lower $30ks. A couple things to keep in mind: * On the Fear & Greed Index Bitcoin has been extremely fearful since May 14 and we continue to remain extremely fearful. * This is the longest time in Bitcoins history we've been in a prolonged state of extreme fear. * A Death Cross (200 day MA going below the 50 day MA) has already formed on June 19th. * Bearish Divergence is approaching on the monthly MACD. * Google Searches for Bitcoin are at a 7 month low. * Unlike the 2017 market top & crash its confirmed that Bitcoin has been in a Wyckoff Distribution schematic. Which indicates there's big money, wall street, and major financial institutions are more directly involved in this market than ever before. *It has so far been evident that Bitcoin between $28,000 - $31,000 have been very hot accumulations zones for whales. Of course that can always change. *If we can't hold $30,000 then $20,000 may be our next stop. This current market sentiment and fear will not be here forever. When we're very greedy then becoming extremely fearful becomes greater over time. After we've exhausted being extremely fearful then our human greed over time slowly starts to build up again. It is a constant back and forth. We will come out of this period more resilient than ever. I do believe we will probably remain sluggish for the next couple of months if there's no decisive break to the downside just looking at the monthly charts. How low do we go? Nobody knows we need to take this day by day and week by week. Don't forget the underlying power that you have by owning Bitcoin. You are you're own bank. You have digital property and freedom outside of our corroding financial system. Bitcoin is a powerful technology that monetizes peace, fairness, and mathematical integrity in economics. This is why its a big deal and will not go away. Much peace, love, health, and wealth.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by peacefuljustin
Best Bitcoin Trading IdeasBitcoin has continued to trek downward, receiving a tiny burst of momentum around $31.5K. It is showing a clear bear trajectory but at this point, a relief rally is due even if it is just a proverbial dead cat bounce. We have broken past $32.3K, which is the nearest level of resistance. However the Kovach OBV is still quite bearish and the Kovach Chande is at a high, suggesting this may be a great shorting opportunity. If momentum continues, then $34K will yet again be our next target, though BTC has had trouble with this in the past.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Another Wave of FUD for Bitcoin??Bitcoin has retraced from $34K, again finding support just above $32.3K. We mentioned yesterday that we feel a divergence is forming with momentum and price action and we still feel that this is the case. The question is whether this will manifest in a breakout for BTC, which clearly did not happen yesterday. Bitcoin seems to be very comfortable in the $32K to $34K handle. This is a narrow range for this product and suggests a breakout may be near. Historically speaking, by reference to the dip from 2018, we could hit the 0.236 level which would put us at about $18K. For now, we expect $30K to be the min lower bound
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Bull Divergence in Bitcoin!! 📈Bitcoin appeared to be making a nice run for a technical level at $34.9K but fell just short of this and broke through $34.0K. We feel a good pump may be near. There is a divergence between the Kovach OBV and the price action (identified with red arrows). Additionally, Bitcoin has been ranging in the $30K's for an uncomfortably long period. Many pundits have been calling for the $20K's or lower, and we simply have not seen that. The crypto market is really good at rejecting the ideas of would-be analysts. If we do build some momentum watch $36.7K, and if we break current levels solidly, then $32.3K should provide support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Defensively aggressive laddering dips - "Knife Juggling" I contest that Crypto is currently not bull and bear, but pigeons and eagles. "Just buy the dip" and "HODL" are two bromides of wisdom for the pigeons, kindly given by the eagles. Ways to keep skittish retail from panic selling and causing even more volatility. But clearly in a volatile market with big swings (10-20% within hours), buying dips is a good strategy. But we are sagely warned against 'catching knives' - get confirmation before buying. Great, but whenever Bitcoin shits itself the market drops with it, and Bitcoin is more erratic than modern politics, which means you can timidly wait a long time for a good entry... and still catch a knife in the hand. HODL is also cute. "Just buy whatever the market is doing, don't try to time the market". Michael Saylor, gigachad himself, bought 500 million worth of Bitcoin for 37.6k average... within a week it was trading consistently under 32k. The circumstances there are a bit different, as held in fund etc, but one can't help but think a bit of timing the market would have been wise. If you bought Bitcoin at 65k, and it slumped to 55k, and then it was clearly heading down, why wouldn't you sell 'at a loss' and buy back in later? More satoshis for the same amount as the original investment, even if the first cash out was less money than you originally put in. Stressful and with some risk, I grant you, but not dumb. This is what all money managers do, but we are told dilligently not to do it - one rule for the pigeons, one rule for the eagles. But one great idea from HODL is the Dollar-Cost Averaging... If you are 'under water' on an investment, you can keep buying back in as the price craters. There is a horrible amount of sunk cost fallacy to it - throwing good money after bad - but you can reduce your break even sale price quickly that way. How does this fit in with catching a falling knife, or rather knife-juggling , you ask? Well, if you keep track of your DCA, and you are using an exchange with lower fees (eg Kraken) rather than something with a high spread (eg Uphold), you can buy dips and sell tops slightly safer. IDEA This is more for swing trading than 'investing'. Invest in bear markets, sell in bulls... let the pigeons get that backwards. With this technique you are still able to aggressively buy dips, as long as you believe the market is in an overall uptrend. It relies upon laddering in (multiple buying points) on the way down, and taking decent profits sensibly on the way up (don't sell all in one go, but take some off the table whenever there is a big move - do not sell below your break even price (BE)). If you are tracking your DCA, as you take profits on peaks, your BE. As your BE price drops, you can use that for your new stop loss limit level, and use BE*1.05 for your stop loss trigger... ensuring you get 5% return whatever. You could also split it, so half your remaining bag stops at that level, whereas the other is stopped as high as possible but decently below a key support to allow retracement. You can then set limit order buys on a small amount above good support lines, which should provide a base in times of market fear. You will often snipe a good deal and it will roar back up. If it is being pushed down by BTC price action, it often recovers quickly, regaining that support level, reducing your risk. NB: If you buy into further dips on the way up, your BE will also rise, so be careful if your BE is close to market or has no support cover. NB: If you buy into further dips below your BE price, because the market has dropped since your first entry, your BE will also drop, thus making it easier to get out of your position without a loss (especially if you bagged some profits when possible) when it next upticks. It does rely on eventual market upticks, but that's crypto. Keep your head, don't panic sell, and try to clear out of your holdings now and then to reassess the market. Be clear what you are investing in, and what you are trading in - they are different strategies. And no shit half the battle is good entries and exits. Sell into strength, buy at peak fear etc, but try to get the meat of the move. Good luck. HOW No Pro, no Show :'( - See comments In arrange QUANTITY and PRICE in two columns, and just copy the trade numbers from Cryptowatch etc. BUY is simply quantity, but SELL is the negative of quantity. (eg 50 | 0.10 ; -50 | 0.15 ) Sum the quantities, which should give you your current holdings (check!) Then use =SUMPRODUCT(B8:B24,C8:C24) to add all the multiplied quantities and prices. You then divide that by the sum of your current holdings (repeat the sum equation or call that cell) Voila. That will give you BE, and *1.05 will give you BE + 5%, giving you your SL price to ensure a profit. Figuring this out has helped me deal with swing trading the schizophrenic BTC/Alt market the last week or two. --- Let me know if it helps, or if you think it is ridiculous/sophomoric/dangerous. I'm also fairly new - but not doing terribly.
TLong
by JohnWukong
1
Bitcoin Catching Support!!Bitcoin has found good support off $32.3K, which was the inverse Fibonacci extension based off our head and shoulders pattern, then neckline of which, at $34K should provide formidable resistance. This is especially so since it appeared to form a lower bound to the consolidation pattern we saw over the past few days which has since broken down. We are likely to find value in the area between $32.3K and $34K if not collapse further to test lows in the lower $30K handle. It is still not out of the realm of possibility to test the upper $20K handle again.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy