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Defensively aggressive laddering dips - "Knife Juggling" I contest that Crypto is currently not bull and bear, but pigeons and eagles. "Just buy the dip" and "HODL" are two bromides of wisdom for the pigeons, kindly given by the eagles. Ways to keep skittish retail from panic selling and causing even more volatility. But clearly in a volatile market with big swings (10-20% within hours), buying dips is a good strategy. But we are sagely warned against 'catching knives' - get confirmation before buying. Great, but whenever Bitcoin shits itself the market drops with it, and Bitcoin is more erratic than modern politics, which means you can timidly wait a long time for a good entry... and still catch a knife in the hand. HODL is also cute. "Just buy whatever the market is doing, don't try to time the market". Michael Saylor, gigachad himself, bought 500 million worth of Bitcoin for 37.6k average... within a week it was trading consistently under 32k. The circumstances there are a bit different, as held in fund etc, but one can't help but think a bit of timing the market would have been wise. If you bought Bitcoin at 65k, and it slumped to 55k, and then it was clearly heading down, why wouldn't you sell 'at a loss' and buy back in later? More satoshis for the same amount as the original investment, even if the first cash out was less money than you originally put in. Stressful and with some risk, I grant you, but not dumb. This is what all money managers do, but we are told dilligently not to do it - one rule for the pigeons, one rule for the eagles. But one great idea from HODL is the Dollar-Cost Averaging... If you are 'under water' on an investment, you can keep buying back in as the price craters. There is a horrible amount of sunk cost fallacy to it - throwing good money after bad - but you can reduce your break even sale price quickly that way. How does this fit in with catching a falling knife, or rather knife-juggling , you ask? Well, if you keep track of your DCA, and you are using an exchange with lower fees (eg Kraken) rather than something with a high spread (eg Uphold), you can buy dips and sell tops slightly safer. IDEA This is more for swing trading than 'investing'. Invest in bear markets, sell in bulls... let the pigeons get that backwards. With this technique you are still able to aggressively buy dips, as long as you believe the market is in an overall uptrend. It relies upon laddering in (multiple buying points) on the way down, and taking decent profits sensibly on the way up (don't sell all in one go, but take some off the table whenever there is a big move - do not sell below your break even price (BE)). If you are tracking your DCA, as you take profits on peaks, your BE. As your BE price drops, you can use that for your new stop loss limit level, and use BE*1.05 for your stop loss trigger... ensuring you get 5% return whatever. You could also split it, so half your remaining bag stops at that level, whereas the other is stopped as high as possible but decently below a key support to allow retracement. You can then set limit order buys on a small amount above good support lines, which should provide a base in times of market fear. You will often snipe a good deal and it will roar back up. If it is being pushed down by BTC price action, it often recovers quickly, regaining that support level, reducing your risk. NB: If you buy into further dips on the way up, your BE will also rise, so be careful if your BE is close to market or has no support cover. NB: If you buy into further dips below your BE price, because the market has dropped since your first entry, your BE will also drop, thus making it easier to get out of your position without a loss (especially if you bagged some profits when possible) when it next upticks. It does rely on eventual market upticks, but that's crypto. Keep your head, don't panic sell, and try to clear out of your holdings now and then to reassess the market. Be clear what you are investing in, and what you are trading in - they are different strategies. And no shit half the battle is good entries and exits. Sell into strength, buy at peak fear etc, but try to get the meat of the move. Good luck. HOW No Pro, no Show :'( - See comments In arrange QUANTITY and PRICE in two columns, and just copy the trade numbers from Cryptowatch etc. BUY is simply quantity, but SELL is the negative of quantity. (eg 50 | 0.10 ; -50 | 0.15 ) Sum the quantities, which should give you your current holdings (check!) Then use =SUMPRODUCT(B8:B24,C8:C24) to add all the multiplied quantities and prices. You then divide that by the sum of your current holdings (repeat the sum equation or call that cell) Voila. That will give you BE, and *1.05 will give you BE + 5%, giving you your SL price to ensure a profit. Figuring this out has helped me deal with swing trading the schizophrenic BTC/Alt market the last week or two. --- Let me know if it helps, or if you think it is ridiculous/sophomoric/dangerous. I'm also fairly new - but not doing terribly.
TLong
by JohnWukong
1
Three Bullish signs for MANAGood Evening, This is looking like the bottom for $MANA & we can see multiple signs of this. We're looking at the daily chart since the inevitable 50%+ correction for Bitcoin in Mid-May. We can see a clear up-trend recently & I believe .50 USD will serve as a solid support level moving forward, as it's a psychologically comfortable amount. The first sign is leveling off of the 50 day moving average. This indicates enough positive price action in the short term (finally) to offset those huge losses in late May. I expect this will become a resistance level moving forward & flipping it into support will be the big sign I'm waiting for that we're heading to the Moon. Until then however, we can expect volatile & profitable trading action staying above 50 cents & moving generally upward into the Summer. The second sign is the Bollinger Bands thinning out & starting to point up. The consolidation we've been seeing is looking like it's ready to pop; and with Macro factors like the recent sale of a Decentraland Estate to a New York Real Estate company for over 900k & big names like Jay-Z & Katy Perry getting into NFT's... It's looking good. Finally we have the MACD pointing to the beloved Northeast (up). The MACD is greener than it has been since February 2021 & a quick history check shows what that could mean for the price. There's one Bear sign admittedly & that is the trading volume still isn't as high as I'd like it. We've only seen an uptick in trading volume of a few percent, but I expect this is because the entire market is in a "wait & see" mode with EIP-1559 right around the corner. The constant FUD from the UK, China, USA & others hasn't helped either alongside the slow & steady up-trend of Bitcoin dominance, which has stifled a lot of alt coin growth & volume. I also wonder how the recent listing of $MANA on Celcius will effect the circulating supply, as at least some Hodlers will be depositing their coins for a modest 2.02% interest, compounding weekly. However, now that gas fees seem to be coming back to Earth we may finally see the trading volume increase & those resistance levels broken. This is the crypto I've selected as my trading focus for this summer & I'll be diving deeper in upcoming charts. NFT's, real estate & crypto all seem like solid markets; so I'm focusing on the one that seems to be doing all 3. I am also a gamer at heart, so a videogame crypto is right up my alley. Full disclosure, I own some $MANA & am not endorsed by anyone to say anything (yet). Not a financial advisor, not financial advice, but I will be buying more $MANA to trade short term & hodl long term.
by TerranTim37
Elliot Wave for GME. What to expect next? (numbers adjusted)After completing the Cup and Handle pattern fully, it looks to me as if we completed a full impulse wave 12345 with a ABC correction. This perception is also supported by the perfect fibonacci levels and filled the gap at 211 to 220 This suggests we are about to enter a new cycle. Since the Earnings report was incredibly bullish (25% sales growth, 49% earnings beat) and the surrounding news (new CEO from AMZN , new CFO from AMZN ) is all very bullish, I expect another impulse wave to begin. This would be wave III in the bigger cycle, the longest and most powerful one. We might have a flat correction in between first, but I don't expect too much downside. The next movement I expect a 1 wave retesting 300, but getting rejected, retracing to 230. Then we will see the long 3rd wave, achieving a new ATH , finally in the region over 770. Before I expected this to go between 600 and 800, so this is still very much in line. The numbers changed because of the wave II in the supercycle shifted the base slightly. The wave 4 correction will take us back down to the 600s before pushing for the wave 5 to over 1.3k. Important to note, that after this strong move upwards, it is possible that we will see a triangle wave or running flat correction first, with 3-5 weeks of sideways trading. This will not invalidate the idea. Also another step backwards below 211 will not invalidate this idea, just change the numbers slightly (hence why this repost with corrected numbers) *I consider this idea in danger if we drop below previous wave 1 which is around 180, or failed if we fall below the previous wave 2 which is 130.
NYSE:GMELong
by baumulrich
12
TCTUSDT For Holder FansBe patient and enter step by step . Now it breaks the elder resistance and it is a good opportunity for buying this coin at this price . The last target is 3$ (250%), even though I keep it until 0.6 and 1 When the TP1 touched I just do risk-free but you can sell some of them if you want ! NOTICE: It is a long-term analysis , put your stop loss long until 25% so do your risk management. Drop some feedback below in the comment! Thanks for your attention 🙏! Trade well, ❤️
TLong
by navid97
XRP - LONG TERMHey everyone. Quick update to my previous posts, Slightly changing wave count. And yes B&W and clean chart. I do really think XRP could be close to the end of the correction.(if it drops down to 0.80 I wouldnt be surprised) Please dont trade per my analysis as its long term. Use your own brain, its for educational purposes. if you see charts differently dont hesitate to share your thoughts. As its only way to go forward when you share the wives. All the best of luck!
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by Hawstone
2
What happen to BTCUSD?Well, today was not a good day, it was liquidated nearly one billion dollars in the futures market. But what is our situation now? Is the long-term market trend is correcting or is it falling? Looking at the RSI, we see that there is a strong negative divergence between the price and the RSI, which has already warned for a price correction. In my opinion, we are not in a dangerous situation at the moment and the situation seems quite normal. Let's look at the chart in weekly time-frame. You can see that the price has just hit the mid-term trend line (the blue line). I am currently considering three scenarios: 1 - Bulls come and raise the price from this point and BINANCE:BTCUSD goes the green path.And we all take a deep breath. 2 - Bears come and break the mid-term trend line and and the price drops to 42K support. Note the strength of this resistance, which can be a return point. In this case, the price hits the long-term trend line (black one) and continues the orange path.I think this is a scenario where you can buy the DIP. 3 - and the nightmare scenario when the long-term trend line is broken, then the situation becomes dangerous and we hope this does not happen. Anyway, I want to say keep calm for now and if you are a Hodler, do not emotional actions, look at the chart in the weekly and monthly time frames. Looking at Bitcoin's history, you see these correction are completely normal, even they help market health unless we lose long-term dynamic and static supports.
by mim.sedghi
2