Lean HogsHogs have been moving upwards in tune with the USDA hog index. This is still an uptrend. Watch USDA hog index for price direction. April Hogs has been more in tune with this index than other charts.
HOGS
Can Hogs make it back to 80'sI try to follow the meat complex but get distracted by other markets. Hogs and Cattle, since November were apparently the markets to follow and, for some reason, I haven't tracked them. Hogs have made an incredible run since mid November and could be at a pause point. How they open this coming week should add clarity if there is more to the correction underway or not. The question is can this market make it back to 80's or higher. On the daily renko chart with blksz set to 1, price is now at the 200EMA and the 2hr and 5Min are showing a correction underway.
On the 2hr, the charcoal box is what the 5min expands out to and the red box is where the buy signal was triggered had I been paying attention.
Short Hog Spread entered 1-22-15. $480 profit, $990 margin. What an extremely sharp move after a crossover deep below overbought range, right before a huge day on 1-30-15. I wish I could say that I rode this all the way up to it's top but I had a nice little profit at 10.875 and exited when it leveled off after it's strong open just over 11.000. Looking at it now, a trailing stop using the last 14 days Average True Range, which was .6220, I would've given it room to do it's thing and captured it's peak right at close, but that's $250 worth of wiggle room, and it could've gone against me too. For those of you tracking me, this was the recommendation I emailed out on 1-22-15. Trade 4212, 15/15 years profitable, $681 avg profit, which we caught 70.4%. But this is a spread that's been profitable historically for the next 17 days, until 2-19. So I'll be looking for a dip to do it again. Will you be with me?
