GBPTRY - Great Holiday Time :)Starting September 2nd I'll be on holiday in Turkey for 2 weeks.
I've managed to time this holiday pretty perfect, looking at the charts we can see it's been in a steep UP TREND since 2nd of July, although it could be argued it happened after the RANGE BREAKOUT in May.
GBP is now extremely strong to TRY, meaning we get more TURKISH LIRA for our GREAT BRITISH POUND.
If your planning a holiday any time soon, this is the time to exchange your currency.
I will be watching in the coming weeks to see what happens, hopefully we can keep this steep uptrend for several weeks, either way i'm happy to be exchanging my GBP to TRY within 2 weeks.
It's highly probable this up trend will not last, so make the most of it while you can, i'm confident that by the time i'm home the situation will have changed. To me, it looks like we may be about to enter into a range in the coming days.
I'm watching and waiting for either a pullback or a range breakout for entry/exchange, it's NOT a good idea to enter near the top.
Either way, from a travel view point rather than a trader, it's a great time to holiday to TURKEY!
Holiday
Meliá (MEL.mc) bearish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart in the Spanish company Meliá Hotels International, S.A. (MEL.mc). Meliá Hotels International, S.A. is a Spanish hotel chain. The company is one of Spain's largest domestic operators of holiday resorts and the 17th biggest hotel chain worldwide. Domestically in Spain the company is the market leader in both resort and urban hotels. Currently, the hotel chain operates 374 hotels in 40 countries on 4 continents under the brands Meliá, Gran Meliá, ME by Meliá, Paradisus, Innside by Meliá, TRYP by Wyndham, Sol Hotels and Club Meliá. The Triangle broke through the support line on 21/02/2023. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 12 days towards 5.545 EUR. According to experts, your stop-loss order should be placed at 6.200 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/16/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2023
- PR High: 11620.00
- PR Low: 11582.75
- NZ Spread: 83.0
Evening Stats (As of 12:55 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237)
- Session Open ATR: 265.04
- Volume: 17K
- Open Int: 268K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -30.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 12391
- Mid: 11820
- Short: 10678
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
When holidaymakers become interested in travel and leisureMy hairdresser recently told me how her strategy of buying Apple shares before the end of the year had been serving her well. ‘Everybody wants an iPhone for Christmas, it’s simple”, she exclaimed.
It may be that investing is much easier when everything is going up – at least if you are taking long positions. Or maybe one only needs to combine observation with common sense to see how people are spending their money. That’s where the investing opportunity may be. Pretty simple?
Given the widespread chaos at airports these days, might the opportunity be in the travel and leisure sector?
People are certainly travelling again
After two years of lockdowns and staycations, it seems like people are now keen to get on a plane and fly away somewhere. Passenger numbers at airports have bounced back, as expected, but remain below pre-pandemic levels
Where are all these passengers off to? In May, around 44% of the total traffic for London Heathrow was made up of passengers to or from Europe1. This is in line with the historic average which means that the destinations haven’t changed, broadly speaking. But as the absolute numbers continue to rise and eventually return to trend levels, European travel numbers will rise further.
When people travel, they also stay at hotels
So, it appears that people aren’t just taking flights, they are booking hotel rooms as well. Monthly hotel occupancy in Spain based on tourists from abroad has also risen sharply (see figure 02 below).
Naturally, with higher bookings come higher revenues, and eventually profits for the hospitality sector. According to forecasts by Statista, Europe’s travel and tourism revenues are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels somewhere between 2023 and 2024, i.e., it is a sector still very much in recovery.
Key considerations for investors
Europe’s travel and leisure sector comprises of three major categories of businesses. These are 1. Airlines, 2. Hotels, resorts, cruises, and restaurants, and 3. Online gaming and betting companies. Arguably, the sector’s performance has not been stellar this year given the risk-off sentiment in equities more widely. Among the 20 industry groups within the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, energy is the only one with positive performance year-to-date2. The travel and leisure sector is down this year but currently ranks somewhere in the middle in terms of year-to-date performance among the 20 categories.
This implies that macroeconomics is currently driving markets and the sector-specific improvement in outlook for travel and leisure is perhaps underappreciated. If the macro clouds dissipate, we may see lift-off in the sector in line with its supportive fundamentals.
Nevertheless, there is also a flipside, as there always is. If recessionary risks rise in Europe, travel and leisure numbers may drop again before even returning to trend levels. Travelling is indeed a ‘discretionary’ expense that can be curtailed when money becomes tight for both individuals and businesses.
Ultimately, predicting market movements is difficult but it may be easier to track consumer behaviour through airport passenger volumes and hotel occupancy rates. Will prices follow the fundamentals? You can never be sure, although my hairdresser is convinced that they do.
Sources
1 Source: Heathrow.com as of 23 June 2022.
2 Source: Bloomberg, as of 23 June 2022.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
BTC has stayed in expected value area range due to low volumesBTC has stayed in expected value area range due to low volumes on holidays. We will decide our trade based on which side we get breakout, if it is with good volume we will ride with the dominant trend direction.
Note, publishing my first video as bit of a test as well, if this turns out doable I'll start publishing regularly.
Regards.
DJIA Recovery PatternThe Green price level line represents the top of the macro range previous to the most recent all time highs.
My bias is that price action took a sharp plunge from Nov 8 - the beginning of December... Price quickly regained strength and bought back previous losses.
If price finds strong resistance above the previous all time range the tells me that price is strong, or at least holding near the most recent all time highs...
With the holiday season approaching, this makes me believe that the DJIA will break all time highs before the new year more than likely.
just a thought
Visa Not Looking So HotMore on this later, but the chart indicates weakness. That said, I am not sure what to make of the bear wedge just yet. Does this lead the entire market lower? Do we go sideways for a little while and then take off higher?
For now, really interested in the price action at $214 and will continue to monitor.
$CPRI: Continues to stun the marketWith another massive earnings beat, the market continues to find value in this name that was getting beaten up long before COVID. Should be interesting to see if CPRI can continue to impress into holiday season and beyond.
Q2 2021 Highlights
Revenue increased 178%, with better than anticipated results across all three luxury houses
Adjusted gross margin expanded 90 basis points versus prior year
Adjusted operating margin of 20.8%
Adjusted earnings per share of $1.42
Raised full year adjusted earnings per share outlook to $4.50
Technical analysis update: Lufthansa AG (28th July 2021)In 2020 airlines around the globe experienced one of the worst years in their history due to pandemic crisis and worldwide restrictions on travel and freedom of movement. This had detrimental impact on airlines around the world. Story is no different for Lufthansa AG. Last year German government bailed out Lufthansa AG with 9 billion euros. Subsequently German government gained 20% stake in the company which is supposed to be temporary until LHA gets back on its feet. As part of the bailout deal German government is not allowed to interfere in daily operations of Lufthansa AG. German government having 20% stake in the company suggests relatively lower risk associated with this investement as opposed to other airline investments where no government is involved with the company. Company's stock declined since December 2017 until September 2020 when it reached low of 6.848 EUR per share. Since then price reversed and started to make higher highs and higher troughs. Within last two months divergence between price and RSI became observable. In addition to that RSI, MACD and Stochastics turned bullish. Though, ADX contains low value suggesting that weak or no trend is present. Despite that we think LHA is poised to move higher eventually. In the short term we expect company to move sideways and struggle but in the long term we expect LHA to perform well. We would like to set our long term price target for LHA to 12 euros per share.
Divergence between price and RSI:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
S&P 500 - Down Turn IncomingPrice action has been following the structure path from Dec 2018 - March 2020 up to this point. As an ending diagonal forms on a macro level right at the point where the March 2020 crash took place, price action is pointing to a historical repeat.
Be cautious heading into next week. I anticipate heavy market volatility following the US Bank Holiday.
Long position - AUDUSDAfter the breakout and re-test of the structure, the market formed another structure. There were fundamentals involved, such as the independence day in the USA. Considering a a positive PMI next week, I'll be expecting a breakout of the last high (0.69520) and a retest. The pull-back is where I'll be placing my position.
Follow me for more ideas!
August worst month for Trading? And why? *We just used DXY as the example. This is true across the board!
The Big Drought
A 10-year analysis on the S&P shows that the markets remain the poorest in the three summer months – June, July and August. Most traders tend to sell their positions in May, and try to reinvest in a fresh positions once the summer is over.
August Is the Worst Summer Month
Most investors and Forex traders in Europe and the North America go on holidays during the month of August. This leads to lower trading volume and significant price actions. Just for example: August 2008 was misleadingly good for the S&P, advancing 1%. However, August 2010 was completely miserable for the S&P, dipping 4.5%, and August 2011 was also miserable for the S&P 500, plunging almost 10%. The month is characterized by sideways trends and momentum swings. However, the trend typically breaks right after the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., and most traders returns to active trading once again.
Post-Summer Months (September-December)
A surge in trading activity usually occurs just after the end of summer, and traders invest in fresh portfolios and positions. These three months therefore represent the best three months to trade in the year.
Another Vacation Spot during the Second Half of December
Forex traders once again stay away from the market in the second half of the December, and celebrate the Christmas Day and the New Year’s Day.
Winter-Spring Action Still Better
The January-May period returned a mediocre 3% on average for the last 10 years, and therefore still does better than the summer months, providing excellent opportunities for traders, continuously for the first four months of the year.
Thee THREE worst months (Summer): June, July, and particularly, August.
The FOUR best months (Autumn): September, October, November, and December.
The FIVE good Months (Winter-Spring): January, February, March, April, and May
What Is The Reason For This Divide?
Any vacation period represents drying up trading volume, and the months following these vacations represent a refreshing return to trading, like rain after a drought.
CHFJPY: Bottom Formed On Bank HolidayWelcome to this analysis guys on todays bank holiday.
We are looking at the CHFJPY on the 1h time frame. There was a clearly bearish trend line, which was broken to the upside and got retested.
The retest happened with a pin bar or a so called wick. A good indicator about a trend change.
My favorite divergence is also in place.
It is still possible to enter the trade but you got a less good risk to reward! Keep that in mind.
Wishing you guys good trades and hear you next time!
NZDCAD: Happy New Year 2019Hi everyone !
This is a trade idea on NZDCAD we are looking at currently. But first i want to wish everyone a happy new year. Enjoy the free time with your friends and family.
NZDCAD did a nice bullish run with a top high divergence. We looking for a good entry as stop loss for now is too far away. Will keep you guys updated here.
See you guys in 2019!