Holy GrailThis isn't everything, but it's still a lot to unpack. I'll try to sort it out below for you.
Let's start with any cycle beyond the 2011 since I use previous cycles for some of these fibs and 2011 doesn't have a previous cycle.
The faded red, 0.5 fib: This is the log-based, direct middle of the full bull market of each cycle. You can see each cycle goes above it and retests it to mark a distinguishable milestone identified by the green bullseye icon.
This goes without saying or even drawing it out that the 1.0 fib of this 0.5 fib trendline marks the top of that cycle seen in green.
This may beg the question 'how do you know where the 0.5 fib is before the top is in?'.
Let me explain a few ways that do just that and also reinforce the validity of that idea.
Hiding beneath that 0.5 fib from 2013 and cycles beyond that is a 'predictive 1.5 fib' in bright red that is always very close to the 0.5 cycle fib noted above.
You may be wondering how I got this predictive 1.5 fib.
1: Draw a log 0.786 fib from the cycle top to the following cycle low
2: Draw a log 1.5 fib from that cycle low to the 0.786 fib we just drew seen in white.
Based on how fib sequences work, this 1.5 fib marks incredibly close to the 0.5 fib
Based on what we know about the 0.5 fib being half the cycle and thus identifying the 1.0 fib as the cycle top, you can simply double the predictive 1.5 fib with a 3.0 fib to create a predictive 3.0 cycle top fib as marked by the faded brown line.
You can see in 2013 and 2017, you didn't need to see the cycle top to predict it.
To further reinforce the consistency of the 0.5 fib, the predictive 1.5 fib, and the cycle tops identified from those placements, you can see the faded blue 1.618 nonlog fib sitting right next to those other two 0.5 and 1.5 fibs.
This is marked by drawing from the previous cycle high to cycle low. This identifies a local bottom between all cycles including the current one.
To even further reinforce consistency of my predictive fibs, you can use the same fib drawn from previous cycle high to low but in Log to draw a 1.272 & 1.618 that I've talked A LOT about since May. This is a range that's pretty well defined by two distinguishable points of contention.
Using this same fib that identifies this range, you can draw a 2.272 fib that marks just shy of the cycle tops.
To even FURTHER reinforce consistency of my predictive fibs, I've drawn a fixed range volume profile across the cycle low to the cycle high (so far).
You can see each cycle reaches above the 1.618 fib with low volume, and we had less than a days worth above that fib so far. & the volume profiles show a pretty distinct pattern that I predict we have yet to finish.
2013 here
2021 here
This is an exhaustive way of providing evidence that could have arguably determined the 2017 top before it was in. We are currently respecting these fibs I've laid out. Is it going to change course all of a sudden?
I'll let the market decide.
There are other cyclical patterns I'm seeing that I won't dive into but you can see in my related ideas such as 'This time is no different'
With the assumption that these patterns aren't just coincidences, I've drawn a range of predictive cycle top numbers as follows:
-based on the 0.5 fib being drawn to the retest in January, the 1.0 fib sits at 243k
-based on the predictive 1.5 fib, the 3.0 fib sits at roughly 264k
-based on the 2.272 fib which was shy of the past cycle highs, this fib sits at 207k
So there you go... 3 different ways that have consistently determined cycle highs & thus why I believe we'll reach at least 200k this cycle.
This'll likely be copied by big names in the future and claim it as their own, so please help me out in crediting me when you see the unique parts of my work copied on this and other platforms.
(unique parts such as the predictive 1.5, the 0.5 retest argument, & unfinished volume profiles)
Tips are welcome <3
You can see some of this work in action by watching my related idea '259k bullmarket top & how'
Some other TA's work to appreciate:
@fikira12
@TradingShot
& My wonderful mentor
@ianrdouglas
Holy
um hellowe just left so many channels you'd think we threw a TV out the window.
This can always collapse and fall back, but...
Dont open long unless we reclaim that 1h top wick. but DONT buy at the top for christ's sake this will ebb and flow it's way out. Bulls need to take an alpha stance here otherwise we will have to spend more time proving we are worthy of 250.
huzzah, gentlemen.
huzzah.
Trade Journal - Long $PINS - Holy Grail Trade - 2/19/2020PINS recently gapped from earning but failed and pulled into the previous gap up area. PINS had recently bottomed last year but broke out and is now in a strong uptrend holding the 20DMA. Following this gap up and pullback, PINS is now at the 20DMA and bounced off it on the 30m timeframe. This is considered a Holy Grail Trade where a trending stock holding the 20DMA pulls back into the 20DMA.
Entry - 23.61
Stop loss - 22.60
Target - 27
Trade Journal: Long NIO - 1/28/2020Since bottoming in November last year, NIO has been in a strong uptrend and recently pulled back after rejecting the IPO lows. During the current uptrend, NIO has been rejecting and riding the 20MA all the way up and yesterday, NIO pulled into the 20MA due to the recent market weakness. Today, NIO created a beautiful inside day candlestick right above the 20MA. This setup is called the Holy Grail setup where a strong, uptrending stock hits and rejects the 20MA during a pullback.
Entry - 4.21
Stop Loss - 3.80
Target 1 - 5.25
Target 2 - 6.50
Note - I also noticed NIO's price action is well correlated with the Hang Seng China stock index (Ticker: HSCEI). HSCEI has been in a pullback phase and has yet to bounce like the US markets today. I believe HSCEI will follow the US market price action today and gap up/run when the China stock markets open tonight.
BTC Holy Grail BUY on the MONTHLY BTC --> 5900 --> 10,000± Made new MONTHLY + new momentum highs + new ADX highs --> Retrace to monthly 20ema (purple line). Setup INVALID below 20ema on MONTHLY chart. ***Trail stops*** Failed grail = very painful. Repeat: SETUP invalid below 20ema on MONTHLY.
Holy Grail by Linda Raschke
Current ResearchI've been getting some messages about possible collaborations and questions about what I'm working on, so heres a few of my current projects that I will start working on in the next few months. If you have a good background in programming or maths and have interest in these projects feel free message me!
I- Holy Grail
a) Making the Holy Grail pick peaks and valleys better
b) Define zones of ranging, when price leaves these zones then enter the trend trade, range trade in the zone
c) Developing classes of new dynamic modulators, based on price and/or volume
d) Solving the dominate periods of price, the largest coefficients of the fourier series
e) Optimized scaling techniques based on unrealized p/l
II- Horizontal Logic
a) Identify horizontal lines that when crossed have a certain probability of crossing a next line
i) High probability lines will be targets
ii) Low probability lines are a good way to probabilistically define ranges
b) Find adaptive triggers that can identify good lines that will be crossed
c) Quantify these in time
d) Classify ranges and trends
III- Ichimoku Methods
a) Make excessive modifications to cloud for very high probability strategies
b) Optimized scaling techniques based on cloud/price information
c) Forward test, then automate
Bitcoin poised to enter a bear marketWe just completed an elliot wave set and peaked out close to 8k. Then the first signs of weakness came up when this next wave couldn't really push to a new ATH, demonstrating textbook market complacency. Here we see bearish divergence marked in pink on the RSI and MACD. The Stochastic RSI is ready for a crossover at the top, possibly predicting a sign of future market weakness to come, and the weekly Stochastic RSI crossed last week too. We also formed a very nice indecision candle at the top with pretty decent volume. Seems like the Heikin Ashi's are starting to turn bearish as well.
I threw my Holy Grail V2 indicator on there for fun. Here we see confusion developing in as the faster lines get twisted under the mid term lines, which are also nearing the longer term lines. Also interesting to see that they look like they are set to have 3 crossovers within a short time of eachother. It still could push higher, but it would be really demanding to sustain more upward movement, as by the charts.
Also, BTC is up 8k, I would be pretty happy to walk away with that and not chase it too much higher. Got to be happy with what you have so you don't make risky choices blindly trying to chase more and end up taking unnecessary losses.
Remember, happiness is only real when shared ;)
happy trading
Smart Execution, intelligently use stops to maximize profitThis post is for all those who are asking about the progress of the holy grail project. There are many ideas that are being poured into the project that are making it more and more effective, but this is proving to be one of the more interesting ones.
The idea of an adaptive stop loss is nothing new, trailing stops are super common, and many low latency methods employ some linear envelopes in the core of their stop loss methods. What the Holy Grail project is employing and may be somewhat new to the trading world is the idea of a stop loss function whose functional dependencies are dynamic in nature and rely on non-linear combinations. This is naturally accomplishable with the help of exponential smoothing. The Holy grail project had a problem that it would have too many neutral entries and exits, but now these can even lock in profits as they go. The next step will be to look at functional behavior that would warrant reentries, or some sort of stationary stochastic selection process of when to exit trades.
Take a look at the plot above. The red line is the reference line, crossovers represent when to enter and exit a trade. The lime and teal lines are the Smart Execution Traces (SETs) and suggest when to exit.
Exciting times!