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Homebuilders

NAIL: Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: above 177.44 Volume: above 566k Target: 208.80 area (this is an area, no guarantees, you should be selling on the way up) Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 177.45, 167.00 gets you 3/1 Reward to Risk Ratio. This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not enter a trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
AMEX:NAILLong
by tradepatiently
1
RECESSION ALERT - Homebuilders WAY Overbought | SHORT $KBHLeverage. It's a beautiful thing. There is not much to say about this one, the chart speaks for itself. Brief Disclaimer: this chart has evaded me - I personally think it should have corrected awhile ago (see grey arrows). Nonetheless, I never bought it... WHY?: The economy is now well into a recession (has been for at least a year). For whatever reason this thing was bought into the stratosphere. Now comes profit-taking and the COLLAPSE! This baby is going DEEP! Thank you for playing. 💀💀💀
NYSE:KBHShort
by ChiefMacro
5
LL Flooring Revision: Back From The GraveBuilding your new home is exciting, especially when you understand how the process works. It’s understandable that buyers are excited to see their new home built from start to finish says Chip Perschino, senior vice president of construction at Edward Andrew Homes. “Our homeowners enjoy watching the home come together, from pouring the foundation to framing and watching the home take shape,” he says. “Once the home has drywall, they start to visualize themselves living in the space and how they’ll use it — imagining what furniture goes where and how they’ll entertain friends and family there.
LLong
by noam_chom
Macro Monday 3 - SPDR Homebuilders XHBMacro Monday SPDR Home builders ETF (XHB) This equal weighted index tracks 35 holdings of the homebuilders segment of the S&P Total Market Index (TMI) and is spread across large, mid and small cap stocks. These comprise of the Homebuilding sub-industry, and may include exposure to the Building Products, Home Furnishings, Home Improvement Retail, Home furnishing Retail, and Household Appliances sub-industries. The Chart - AMEX:XHB The Chart can be used as a leading indicator for the US housing market as the stocks in the XHB comprise of companies that provide the materials and products to build new houses and renovate homes. These products are higher up the supply chain and sold before construction commences or during. In the past the XHB chart provided a significant advance warning of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis which is illustrated in red on the chart. A similar negative divergence would be worth watching out for in the future. At present the performance of XHB is ahead of the S&P500. XHB is 5% from ATH’s at $87.00. This is in keeping with how this chart leads the market as it includes products and materials required for new builds and renovations. I would expect some resistance at the ATH which could act as a decision point for price. A break above the ATH with support established on it would be positive for price. A rejection off the ATH or a false break out and we would need to monitor price closely to see can price find support on the 10 Month SMA. If a lower high occurs on XHB (like in 2007), this could be an early warning signal of downward price pressure to follow on the S&P500. As noted on the chart the average performance post MACD cross is a price increase of 80%; - We are currently at $83.50 which is a price increase of 21% from the recent MACD cross. - A revisit of the ATH at $87.00 would be a price increase of 26% from the recent MACD cross. - An 80% average increase would lead us to the top of the parallel channel (see chart). - None of the above percentages are guarantees, we are just looking at probabilities. Factoring in that we are above the 10 month moving average and that it is sloping upwards, I remain positive about the continued performance of XHB, although I would not be surprised to see resistance at the ATH of $87.00 and a pull back to the 10 month SMA would be standard. If a weekly candle closed below the 10 month SMA, this is where I would start to get concerned and would then start to lean bearish. If we got follow through lower after that point, this would be alarm bells for me. We can draw a correlation here to the first Macro Monday chart I shared on July 3rd, the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT which also established a lower high as the S&P500 CBOE:SPX continued its ascent. Both the XHB and the DJT demonstrated they can be leading economic indicators by establishing lower highs prior to the 2007 Great Financial Crisis. PUKA
AMEX:XHB
by PukaCharts
22
New Floors with Lumber Liquidators LL commodities retail rally“Inequality can be done away with only by establishing a new society, where men and women will enjoy equal rights, resulting from an upheaval in the means of production and in all social relations. Thus, the status of women will improve only with the elimination of the system that exploits them.” Lumber Liquidators looks good for a reversal. Small share float, strong sales, strong P/B P/E P/C and near zero debt vs equity. Risks: Value Trap, Discretionary spending retraction, macro momentum stays negative
LLong
by noam_chom
5
NAIL- an ETF of Homebuilders 3X leveragedNAIL- is an ETF of Homebuilders; It is 3X leveraged. Price is up over 30% in the first two weeks \ of June. It is shown here on the 30-minute chart with the "Market Bias" indicator which shows uptrends in green and pull-back zones in gray. Presently, price is pulling back - when the gray colored trend indicator changes back to green, an optimal entry can be made.The ADX indicator has topped out as part of the early pullback. When the ADX goes below 25 and then crosses 25 from below, an entry can be made. An ADX over 50 and rising suggests that it is too late for an entry and not to chase but rather wait for a pullback. Overall, NAIL's price is now in early pullback by the "Market Bias: trend indicator and the ADX which shows now a decreasing trend directional strength. Price is more than one standard deviation above the mean anchored VWAP which is an level that professional traders want to sell from. Because of all of this I will wait for an entry on NAIL until a pullback is completed and the uptrend bullish continuation is seen.
AMEX:NAILLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB) at risk of bearish reversalAMEX:XHB US housing market, a key contributor to US economic growth via the wealth effect that will trickle down to consumer spending & confidence. We can decipher its impact on the overall stock mkt via sentiment/technical analysis on2/2 The recent rally of the $XHB from 19 Oct 22 low to 22 Nov 22 has been accompanied by declining volume & underperformance against the SP 500 ETF $SPY Looks like up move has hit an inflection zone for a potential bearish reversal below 64.40 key MT pivotal resistance. $XHB 2/2 The recent rally of the $XHB from 19 Oct 22 low to 22 Nov 22 has been accompanied by declining volume & underperformance against the SP 500 ETF $SPY Looks like up move has hit an inflection zone for a potential bearish reversal below 64.40 key MT pivotal resistance.
AMEX:XHBShort
by Kelvin-Wong
DHI Descending Channel Break for Long EntryDescription DHI has been working this descending channel since hitting an ATH in May of this year, and off the earnings we may be seeing a break out. A close > 94 triggers a long. Using a call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time. Will look to enter at EOD. Call Debit Spread Tentative Levels on Chart SL is a daily close back in the channel. *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/3 95C SELL 12/3 105C R/R & Break-evens vary on fill. The long call is placed ITM due to limited strikes but also offers good downside protection. The short call is placed at the ATH. If DHI runs to ATH and holds, I'll look to roll the spread up. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:DHILong
by BarnardR
KB Home forecast hike could lead to breakoutFundamentals My trading algorithm doubled down on KB Home today due to a substantial increase in Wall Street consensus earnings forecasts. I estimate that forward P/E on the stock is about 5, and forward P/S is about 0.6. (But note that my forecasts are more optimistic than the Street consensus, which currently puts forward P/E at 6.7.) I estimate that KBH will yield about 2.3% in dividends over the next 12 months. Most impressive of all is KBH's 5-year growth rate. 8% earnings growth, 3% sales growth, and 12% dividend growth. KBH has about 21% upside to its median earnings-date multiple of the last 5 years, making it one of the most undervalued stocks I follow (second only to NRG). KBH has received large earnings upgrades even as the stock price fell. The earnings outlook gets a score of 6/6 from me. Recent movement in the bond market seems to favor lower future mortgage rates, which would be good for housing demand. The main downside here from a fundamental point of view is that KBH has substantial debt and weak free cash flow, with P/FCF near 18. S&P Global gives KBH a 43.5/100 fundamentals score due to low margin and somewhat weak financial health. Neutral sentiment Homebuilder sentiment is somewhat weak because of data showing that a growing number of home buyers think it's a bad time to buy a home. That's a concern, but this data isn't a strong leading indicator of prices. Even when they think it's a bad time to buy, consumers seemingly buy anyway. Presently buyers also have some competition from hedge funds, who've been snapping up single-family houses as investment properties. The analyst summary score for KBH stands at 4.4/10, unchanged over the last 30 days. The put/call ratio is 1.1, slightly bearish. However, KBH is currently trading 35% below the average analyst price target, making it the second most undervalued stock I follow by this measure (after fellow homebuilder MDC Holdings). I think sentiment will flip as soon as KBH gets some "constructive" movement in price. (See what I did there?) Technicals KBH is below its 200-day EMA, and the 20-day and 50-day EMAs are pointed downward. It's also got a down-trending resistance line. Overall, this would seem to favor a continued selloff. However, KBH has some support in this area, and there was a big spike in volume a couple days ago when KBH reported earnings. (KBH beat analyst earnings estimates but missed on sales. Guidance was optimistic.) I find that volume tends to spike at inflection points, either a short-term top or a short-term bottom. So I'm thinking that KBH might bottom here short-term. Strategy I've gone ahead and bought a few shares in anticipation of a bullish breakout, and I've set an alert to pick up some more shares after the price moves up through the red resistance line. If we do get a short-term bottom here, I'm looking for about $43.75 from the initial leg up. Whether we keep going up from there will depend on whether analysts upgrade the stock. I think it's pretty absurd for a company with strong growth to be trading at such low price multiple. So based on valuation alone, I'd expect analysts to get more bullish here. But any increase in home inventories and mortgage rates or decrease in median home selling price might weigh on sentiment, so be aware of that risk. KBH's fate will definitely be influenced by larger market conditions. If sentiment stays strong, I'll diamond-hand my way up to a second price target at $47, and a third target at $49.50.
NYSE:KBHLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
6