Home Depot - Pump to $327 incoming🐂 Trade Idea: Long - HD
🔥 Account Risk: 1.00%
📈 Recommended Product: Knockout / Option
🔍 Entry: +/- 306.27
🐿 DCA: No
😫 Stop-Loss: 284.29 (or 294.65 for aggressive trade)
🎯 Take-Profit: 327.27 (50%)
🎯 Trail Rest: Yes
🚨🚨🚨 Important: Don’t forget to always wait for strong confirmation once possible entry zone is reached. Trade ideas don’t work all the time no matter how good they look. Do not get a victim of FOMO, there is always another trade idea waiting. 🚨🚨🚨
If you like what you see don’t forget to leave a comment 💬 or smash that like ❤️ button!
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Home Depot is in a larger uptrend since Oct. 2016 (yellow trend line) but consolidates sideways since Feb 2023 despite a take-off situation in the housing market - at least when it comes to permits. Home Depot is considered as a stock that should benefit from those situations.
Technically we can see that the bottom support of the current consolidation zone (big green box) was breached only one time immediately retracing in the consolidation box with high volume. This indicates a stronger support there. Since beginning of June we now entered into a much smaller consolidation box (little green box) on the upper right corner of the bigger zone. Those multiple tests of the upper resistance and the share price remaining ever closer to resistance indicate an upward breakout.
If you’re a pre break-out trader you might want to jump in with a tight stop around 294. All others should wait for daily confirmation outside the box possible at 306.
Don’t forget earnings in August if you take the trade.
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Disclaimer & Disclosures pursuant to §34b WpHG
The trades shown here related to stocks, cryptos, commodities, ETFs and funds are always subject to risks. All texts as well as the notes and information do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. They have been taken from publicly available sources to the best of our knowledge and belief. All information provided (all thoughts, forecasts, comments, hints, advice, stop loss, take profit, etc.) are for educational and private entertainment purposes only.
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Homedepot
BLDR on a consistent trend higherBLDR is part of the construction industry and has had consistent gains over YTD in the range
of 95 % with favorable beats on earnings estimates and increases in revenue. Volume has been
rising in the past month. In the past when BLDR pulled back to the blue SMA100 line it then
reversed quite well and resumed its move higher. At present, BLDR is on a pullback which
provides an opportunity for a long entry at the current price where the SMA20 SMA50 and SMA
100 are converged. I will take a long trade here as I see BLDR to be consistent in its move
up and setup for entry with a pullback.
Home Depot "Plunges" to SupportAll media invokes sensationalism to get clicks and views to see their ads. Some really play into the doomer mindset of their readers/viewers by selecting stories that amplify the theme of the world/economy/dollar ending and that the next crash is right upon us! I've been reading these headlines every day for over a decade now and it's just the way modern journalism works. As a trader I aspire to cut through the noise and negative bias (and sometimes the positive bias) and ask the more objective question: "what does the price action suggest?"
Home Depot NYSE:HD had earnings today and while the news was negative the overall long term trend (on the Weekly timeframe) has not changed. The key low of COVID and All Time High trend has defined most stocks for the last two years and may continue to define them for up to a decade. This past trend sets up a 50% Retracement level around 280.62 which Home Depot stock price has stubbornly held with an auction zone for a year of price action by now.
Digging down through the lower timeframes the price action sets up a potential low-risk post-earning trade. The price action of the open poked below the near term low but failed to follow lower.
What I would look for is price to hold today's opening action and NOT break the opening low. That sets up a stop for a reversal of this oversold condition while the broader price action on the Weekly is at a major Support.
Weak Trend Line and Bearish MACD Gap Indicate Potential ReversalNYSE:HD has profitable for the past five years, with earnings per share (EPS) growing at an average rate of 17.67%. The company also pays a dividend, which has been growing at an average rate of 16.37%. The company's valuation metrics are also relatively healthy, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 17.355 and a price-to-book ratio of 205.99.
However, there are a few areas of concern. First, the company's debt-to-equity ratio is high, at 96.411%. This means that the company is relying heavily on debt to finance its operations. Second, the company's inventory turnover ratio is low, at 4.4343. This means that the company is taking longer to sell its inventory than it should.
The technical indicators are showing some intriguing signs the chart. A weak trend line on the buy signal combined with a hidden divergence suggests consolidation or choppy market conditions. Furthermore, a gap in the MACD histogram could be signaling a potential bearish reversal.
The weak trend line on the buy signal suggests a lack of strong bullish momentum. This, coupled with the hidden divergence, could be indicating a phase of consolidation or choppy market conditions. During such periods, the market often moves sideways within a range, making it difficult for trend-based strategies to generate profits.
The gap in the MACD histogram is another crucial factor to consider. Such gaps often precede reversals, indicating that the bears could be about to take control. This could be an excellent opportunity for traders looking to short sell or buy put options.
The key levels to watch are:
- Support at 287: This is where we can expect buying pressure to emerge. If the price drops to this level and then bounces, it could be a buying opportunity for short-term traders.
- Resistance at 291.3: This is where we can expect selling pressure. If the price rises to this level and then starts to fall, it could be an opportunity for short selling or buying put options.
In conclusion, the current chart presents a mixed outlook with indications of potential bearish reversal. Im looking to enter a short position if it breaks through the support line.
Home Depot to raise the house (a bit). HDOr a 5+% loss incase of a stoploss trigger. Technically, we can climb here, given increasing momentum, but local pivot not confirmed. Head and shoulders is also speculative.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
Home Depot: Diligent ⚙️As a hard worker, Home Depot has just recently nailed down wave X in green, hitting our green target zone between $282.54 and $260.03. From this low, the share has already started the anticipated ascent and thus should soon reach the resistance line at $347.25. Next, Home Depot should saw through this mark and climb into the gray zone between $360.98 and $402.97 to tape down wave b in gray before turning downwards again. The following descent should then lead the course back below $347.25 and subsequently below the support at $260.03. There is a 37% chance, though, for Home Depot to drop below this level early. In that case, we would assume that the share has last developed waves alt.1 and alt.2 in green instead of waves (A) and (B) in magenta and thus has already finished wave alt.b in gray.
HD 1WWhy do I expect price to move below 247 USD?
Firstly, let's look at the chart.
What can you can read from the chart?
Price has created lower high.
Price is below local PoC.
Weak higher low
What do I expect will happen based on my readings?
Price is currently below local PoC. The structure is very poor. I believe price will move below 247 USD.
LOWE'S - Look For Longs. $245 Is the Target for ShortsQuick read, for once.
Lowe's is down 7% following ER. Another ER dump. This is really notable for a few reasons:
1. Big moves on the first of the month always make me think reversals
2. Lowe's isn't really bearish on monthly or weekly bars
3. The real short setup for economic disaster is in the $240 range
4. Dump swept out weekly/monthly/daily sellside pivots
5. Gap fill
6. Overall market is not as bearish as it was during last Lowe's ER dump
7. Equities market makers love to "gamma squeeze" rip the other way after a little bit.
However, the weekly bars do show a three drives-style pattern
But it's only the wicks over range equilibrium and it's never traded to a deep premium, which is what you really want to see before new lows are going to be set.
Monthly shows that this isn't a bear market, either.
March 31 $200 calls lost $8.5 on the news.
You still have to be super careful because of geopolitical risks:
1. The Chinese Communist Party has not reported a single COVID case since Jan. 10, and this is almost impossible to be real. The reality is that the CCP is likely very, very weak right now and could fall at any time.
2. Elon Musk has warned, which confirms with multiple other sources, that Russia is about to launch a very large scale offensive in Ukraine. He would know because Starlink is the only thing keeping Ukraine with even a shred of hope in the battle. Equities down, commodities up is what that will result in, just like when the war was launched last year.
3. When it's time for the CCP to go, and it's going to happen very soon, you can expect there to be a clash between the India-Russia-Saudi/BRICS type entities and the United States/NATO globalists because everyone wants China. All the "hawkish" chatter on "China" (note it's rarely ever against the CCP itself) (("China" is not "the CCP")) from America is gearing up to take over the Mainland by way of the globalist groomed Chinese nationals it has parented so as to install all the woke globalist things and completely ruin what little is left of the country's 5,000 year culture as they go for a real New World Order/One World Government
With the way everything is acting I kind of suspect Lowe's may not be finished dumping, but imo this is one of those situations where one should "be greedy only when others are fearful."
$186 would be a really sweet entry and you have to sit on your hands for 2 or 3 months or at least roll out your winners.
See my Nasdaq/SPX/Dow calls for thoughts on the markets at large and potential timing.
July is the target for when things really get scary.
Home Depot Potential for Bearish Drop | 28th February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market.
Looking for a sell entry at 311.69, where the overlap resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 331.31 where the overlap resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci line are. Take profit will be at 279.90, where the overlap support and 78.6% Fibonacci line is.
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A Leading Indicator for US EconomyCME: E-Mini S&P Retail Select Industry Futures ( CME:SXR1! )
Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the latest Personal Income and Outlays Report. Personal income gained $131.1 billion (0.6%). Disposable personal income (DPI) added $387.4 billion (2.0%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew $312.5 billion (1.8%) for the month of January.
Data shows that U.S consumer is resilient. Wage gains and inflation pushed spending growth to a two-year high. In the past decade, PCE gained 60% to $18 trillion. More recently, it surged 50% in the three years since the start of the COVID pandemic.
The hotter-than-expected data indicated that US economy was nowhere near a recession. Additional data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed robust job growth in January and the lowest unemployment rate in half a century.
Wary of bigger and longer-lasting Fed rate hikes on the way, all major US stock indexes turned negative in the month of February. As of last Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.8% month-to-date, while S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 recorded -2.6%, -0.8%, and -2.4%, respectively.
Consumer Spending Outlook
Consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. While PCE shot up more than expected last month, it is a lagging indicator and only confirms what happened in the past. Could U.S. consumers spend out of the peril of a recession?
Retailer stock prices are forward-looking and reflect collective market consensus of how much free cash flow the retailers could earn, discounted by their cost of capital. There are indications that the shopping spree may be ending soon.
Last week, Walmart said its U.S. consumer spending started the year strong, but that it expects households to back off through the year, producing weak fiscal-year U.S. sales growth of 2% to 2.5%. Home Depot said consumer spending is holding up, but that it expects a flat sales-growth year overall, with declining profits.
This is a troubling signal. Retailers are supposed to benefit the most from growing consumer spending, but their stock prices have been losing steam in February. As of Friday, Home Depot ( NYSE:HD ) has a year-to-date return of -6.1%, while Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ) is mostly flat (-0.8%). Other retailers with declining stock prices include Dollar General ( NYSE:DG ), -13.2%; Walgreens Boots Alliance ( NASDAQ:WBA ), -3.7%, and Casey’s General Stores ( NASDAQ:CASY ), -3.8%.
Walmart reported Q4 and FY2023 (ending January) revenue growth of 7.3% and 6.7%, respectively. Its operating income fell 5.5% and 21.9%, for the same periods. Digging deeper into Walmart’s earnings release, I find that it keeps sales growing by expanding its grocery business, but those sales are less profitable than general merchandise categories, where consumer spending is leveling off or shrinking.
In theory, the growth of the biggest US retailer could be attributed to one of the following:
• General growth of consumer spending (economic expansion);
• Good business strategy and market share growth (economic trend unknown);
• Consumer downgrades spending from department stores (economic downturn);
• Price increases (inflation).
My interpretation:
1. Consumers tend to keep up with the same living standards. When inflation hits, they maintain the same purchasing habit. Higher price drives spending growth.
2. As inflation deepens, consumers get fewer merchandises with the same budget.
3. Consumers downgrade purchases from department stores to discount stores, and switch to generic products from brand-named products.
4. In a downturn, higher-ended stores get hit first, and discount stores get hit last.
While Walmart manages to grow revenue by doubling down on grocery and online businesses, the weakness in general merchandizes uncovers the real trend of consumer spending leveling off. We may disagree on whether a recession will be coming, however, data from Walmart and Home Depot indicates that the U.S. retail sector is in trouble.
S&P Retail Select Industry Index
S&P Retail Select Industry Index may be a better benchmark for the U.S. retail sector, comparing to the lagging government data and company specified performance metrics.
The index comprises of stocks in the S&P Total Market Index that are classified in the GICS retail sub-industry. Total-10 constituents by index weight are:
• Carvana (CVNA)
• Wayfair (W)
• Sally Beauty (SBH)
• Stitch Fix (SFIX)
• Boot Barn (BARN)
• Children’s Place (PLCE)
• Qurate Retail (QRTEA)
• Leslie (LESL)
• EVgo (EV)
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
One-year chart above shows that CME E-Mini S&P Retail Select Industry (SXR) Futures tracks the trend of S&P 500 but illustrates higher volatility in the first two months of 2023.
Each SXR contract is notional at $10 times the index. At Friday settlement price of 7004, one March contract (SXRH3) is valued at $70,040. Each futures contract (long and short) requires an initial margin of $5,700. When the underlying index moves 1 point, trader’s futures account would gain or lose $10.
At present, I do not foresee a decisive trend of the S&P 500. It could trend up, go down or move sideways depending on how the Fed rate hikes, inflation, unemployment and geopolitical crises play out.
However, this does not prevent me from expressing a bearish view on the US retail sector. Establishing a SXR short futures position would be appropriate in the negative outlook.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Home Depot looking strong prior to earnings releaseHome Depot, Inc. (The) (symbol ‘HD’) shares made around 13% in profits since the beginning of Q4 2022. The share price made a very strong bullish run and then entered a slightly bearish trading channel. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending January 2023 is set to be released on Tuesday 21st of February, before market open. The consensus EPS for Q1 is $3,26 compared to Q1 2022’s $3,21.
‘Home Depot looks “healthy” financial-wise with a dividend yield of 2.40% and a payout ratio of 44,30% this shows that the company is giving out a relatively good amount of dividends to its investors while retaining most of its earnings to reinvest in the company to maximize growth, The current ratio of the company is over 100% which means that they are in the financial position to repay the short term-liabilities should the need arise.’ said Antreas Themistokleous at Exness.
Based on technical analysis the share price bounced on a major technical support which consists of the 38.2% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level and the bullish trendline which is valid since late October 2022.
If the following sessions close above the current level we might see the next level of resistance laying around the $325.50 area which is the 23.6% of the daily Fibonacci level. The fact that the 50 day moving average is trading well above the 100 day moving average and the Stochastic oscillator near the extreme oversold levels further support this possible continuation to the upside.
In the event that the price resumes the downward movement of the last week then the first point of support might be seen around $306 price area which consists of the lower band of the Bollinger bands, the 100 day moving average and the 50% of the Fibonacci.
Home Depot dips continue to attract.Home Depot Inc - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 312.12 (stop at 298.22)
The stock is currently outperforming in its sector.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
Bespoke support is located at 312. 307 has been pivotal.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 346.86 and 349.86
Resistance: 324 / 330 / 335
Support: 312 / 307 / 300
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
HD: RECTANGLE PATTERN AND FULL TECHNICAL ANALYSISHD ( HOME DEPOT ):
Consumer Cyclical - Home Improvement Retail.
Home Depot is included in the Down Jones Industrial Average.
My technical analysis on the stock:
The current downtrend took the stock 37% of its all time high of January 2022.
On June 23, HD initiated a strong bounce to $333 off the $265 level.
On August 17, HD initiated a huge drop back to 265, to bounce back again to the 330 zone where we currently are.
The stock is currently down 22% off its all time high.
Is this a buy?
No one knows, but let's look at technical analysis to help us make a decision.
As we see from the chart, the 265-269 zone is acting as a strong support while the 328-333 zone is acting as a strong resistance.
All of the above has created a nice range in the shape of a rectangle.
A rectangle is formed when the price is confined to moving between the two horizontal levels, creating a rectangle.
The pattern can indicate a few things:
- that the downtrend has paused and the stock is now consolidating before a continuation down. So back at the bottom of the rectangle and break down.
- that the downtrend has stopped and we're looking at a change of trend. Kind of bottoming pattern. So basically it can keep ranging for a while and break to the upside OR break to the upside in the next few days.
The rectangle ends when there is a breakout, and the price moves out of the rectangle.
Considering the above there are several ways to trade it:
1. If you think the price will keep consolidating within the range, you can short the stock at the top of the range . Your target is the bottom of the rectangle, with a stop just above the rectangle.
2. if you have a more bullish view, you can wait for a breakout off the rectangle and go long the stock , with a stop below the top line of the rectangle. All targets are mentioned on the chart (blue lines). Rectangle ultimate target being $400.
I'm leaning slightly bullish here because moving averages have started to rise, and I like the triple bottom, but who knows. Whatever your opinion is, best is to manage your risk.
Trade safe.
C+H into H+S as left shoulder is the top right side of the CupThis particular formation is something I seldom experience in my daily chart readings, but when it arises tends to guarantee a profit given this entry. First time I ever saw this I questioned, can two patterns be combined? I would have to agree. Proper confirmed entry would be at 328, as soon as I witnessed the potential first indication of a reversal of trend, a lower high in a previous uptrend. Another thing that added conviction was the appearance of larger than the other wicks in the formation of the H+S specifically that right shoulder. I entered Friday in this situation because of the conviction I had in regard to experiencing this formation previously. 5 min time frame is my preference for day trades. Hope this helps.
HD: Double bottom?Home Depot Inc
Intraday - We look to Buy at 285.03 (stop at 271.38)
Buying pressure from 265.00 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. Posted a Double Bottom formation. The reaction higher is positive and highlights a clear reversal. A weaker opening is expected to challenge bullish resolve. Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 328.98 and 340.00
Resistance: 300.00 / 330.00 / 418.00
Support: 285.00 / 265.00 / 150.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.