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Hopium

Momentarily Bullish AgainOnce the last theory busted it was a return to the drawing board. I am now postulating we are back in Cycle wave B which I thought had been completed as initially forecasted during the summer 2023 (high was end of July). Not only was 4607 busted a few days back, it was blown out of the water today. What does this mean? With Cycle wave B now being larger than anticipated, Cycle wave C will likely last well through the 1st or even 2nd quarter of 2025. This likely indicates something worse than I initially forecasted will happen. The event or events will devastate economies enough to likely see the S&P 500 index lose close to half its value from the pending top. China taking Taiwan and temporarily controlling a majority of the microchips and production facilities will hold the world hostage. If a larger scale war breaks out, it will likely end or the tide will turn by 2025. I am still very bullish long-term, but will be bearish again around the end of this month. Here are the re-mapped modified wave counts CYCLE B PRIMARY A INTERMEDIATE 1-2 INTERMEDIATE 3-4 INTERMEDIATE 5 PRIMARY B PRIMARY C (so far) What levels are the models forecasting The levels to the right of the main chart are the historical quartiles for Cycle wave B end points. The 3 largest retracements are in red as 2 of them went beyond 100% (which is 4818 and would be a new all-time high). The levels to the left are the same historical data as it relates to movement extensions for the possible end point of Primary wave C inside of Cycle wave B. Models for Cycle B end: 2040 hours to 2059 ( this seems a little quick if Minor wave 3 just finished or is wrapping up). The lower white box is 4740-4755. The higher white box is 4790-4818. I figure we have at least a week left of this thing, maybe through end of year depending what Minor 4 does. 2,091 hours is next Friday and is what I stretched the top box out to. Models for Primary C in Cycle B end: Top yellow box is 4910-4920 for market top price. Middle yellow box is 4870-4880. Lower yellow box is 4790-4818. The duration models are all over the place. I will ignore the 2 largest values because they are the lengths of Primary wave A (1442 hours), and Primary wave B (1358). As I have mentioned before, common ratios of waves A to B and to C are 1:1, 1:2, 1:3, 1:4 (and those inverses) when the durations are very small (a few hours long) for micro wave sets. We are dealing with a macro wave in the current instance. Third strongest agreement is 679 hours which is half of Primary wave B's length which will also be ignored. After discounting the common ratios, the strongest agreement is at 220-250 hours, secondary agreement is 480-490, third is 270-290, fourth at 340-350. 232 hours aligns with the end of the lower white box which I assess to be too quick. 290 hours aligns with December 28th. I have placed the yellow boxes at 270-290 hours which straddles the holidays. Additional Calculations for Primary wave C: Primary wave B (1358 hours) was a slightly shorter duration than Primary wave A (1442). This means wave A's duration was 1.0619 times larger. I have sought similar situations when A is 1-1.11 times greater than wave B to understand potential characteristics of our current Primary wave C. Primary wave C is shorter 85.7% of the time. Based on these historics and applying prior ratios to the current conditions for Primary waves A and B, Primary wave C could last between 262-595 hours on the low end, and 711-830 hours on the high end. The market top has a low-end target between 4715-4794, a median at 4878, and high-end at 5096-5496. Based on the move back to Cycle wave B, the current data suggests the next market top could occur before the end of the year and we may fall just shy of 4818. The current setup reminds me of 2000-2009 but on a shorter scale duration wise. The market topped in March of 2000, found a bottom in October 2002 (which I call the end of wave A), moved above the prior market top by October 2007 (end of wave B), and the final wave C and market bottom was March of 2009. I see the similar thing playing out between January 2022-somewhere in early 2025. I will produce an additional analysis based on Minor wave 3 and Minor wave 4 inside of Primary wave C by tomorrow at the latest.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
1
Linked'In for some gains?Link has been known to go its own way during the last bear market so we may see some similiar price action from the 'chain with the link' moving deeper into this brutal bear market in 2023. LINKUSD has been moving around a sideways channel for a few weeks, with the next few days showing if we bounce or break through to the downside. If we do break lower we have 2020 resistance level at $4.88 which may provide some support. Also a downward trend line which may also see a bounce to the upside. All we can do now is wait to see what the intraday fiends intend to do. Not financial advise, so its not
KRAKEN:LINKUSD
by BringTheFingerBack
2
Ethereum Flippening - Fear, Greed, and False HopeTo begin, I want to tell you that you should not have faith in digital currencies. The rogue faction within the Chinese Communist Party is, and has been for years, behind the scenes. Wall Street are, and has been for years, the Party's abettors and blood transfusors. I also want to tell you that global markets in general are about to experience something far more trying than a recession. Humanity is entering something worse than The Great Depression, or even "The Greatest Depression." Humanity is on the cusp of what I call "The Great Destruction." In this process, the target of the controlled demolition by the establishment Red Cult is primarily middle class ordinary people. It's something like a test. Whatever vices you have will be exploited to bring your downfall. Greed and fear are what moves you and they are why the market moves as it does. Consider that research from the London School of Business found retail traders gambling on options on Robinhood via "the bros" at r/WallStreetBets lost $5 billion USD during the greatest bull run in the history of stocks. Consider that silver and gold are on their way back to three and one digit respectively after people were told to get out of the US petrodollar because of its alleged coming collapse as the global reserve currency. Consider that interest rates are about to be hiked to the point that people can't afford their mortgages. Consider that WTI Crude and Natural Gas will dump and then print numbers like $180 and $15 before the year is out and you won't be able to afford to drive your car or heat your apartment anymore. Consider that Bitcoin is down 60% from its all time highs and showing no signs of life. There's no "web3 revolution," there's just bag holders because Central Bank Digital Currencies will destroy the industry and they are already en route. Consider that the stock market is down 25-30% YTD and 2021's prices are _never_ coming back. These are all things the middle class have been told by "experts" to trade their cash for because of various reasons, especially ones like the fallacy that the US Dollar is about to devalue and be depreciated. You're about to get your chance to chase the moon again, though. The Flippening is coming. For this trade concept to work, it will rely on ETHBTC to reach 0.25 as it will happen at the same time that BTC plummets towards $15k. This will result in Ethereum taking the #1 marketcap position away from Bitcoin. Ethereum will give you hopium amid widespread doom. You will believe that you are on the cusp of a new paradigm. People will put in what little they have left and start taking out payday loans and spending their HELOCs to buy, not wanting to miss the race to $5,000 and $10,000. Based on what I have foreseen, Ethereum is about to have an unpleasant and uncomfortable pullback towards the July open. This is a buying opportunity. The target is under $4,000. The RR on this trade is like 9:1. Don't short Ethereum. You will die. Don't hold Ethereum. You will die. Cash is King. Buy gold and silver when they're in the dumpster and return to tradition. Digital currencies are without a future. All are fated for $0.00.
Long
by LordWrymouth
1
Solana Daily Breakout- Let's finally get some hopium, shall we?BINANCE:SOLUSDT BYBIT:SOLUSDT Solana has broken out, it was imminent as we have been technically overextended to the downside for the previous 9 days (referring to Solana). Now, what is next? Probably not this chart, but if we are simply relaying history into its traditional pattern, we have a classic run down (green arrow) inclined to a 20% move to the upside before double bottom's in on a bullish divergence (green marker+rsi). We have seen this chart pattern play out before last summer, during the china crush. The play out of this pattern led to a parabolic move for the altcoin, Rounding out a 700%+ trip to the upside before reaching what we now know of as the all-time high. Very similarly, we have seen this pattern replay itself, with a breakout confirmed on yesterday's big move on the back end of extremely high short interest meeting with the announcement of the EIP-1559 merger. If we imply the same % difference from the low of the double bottom to the trend high. It coincidentally (maybe maybe not) lines up with the exact dollar value as the .382 Fibonacci retracement level, beginning from the all-time high to the trend bottom of the initial dump-off, as made visible on the chart. Now I posted in the title that this is simply a case of hopium, and with a high time frame like the daily it will take a good amount of time to see the chart play out, and likely some shaking off in between then. There is no flip side case (bearish) with the macro picture and other underlying risks you would be taking for this trade, but these are the statistics nonetheless. Drop a follow for more chart analysis!
Long
by CheatCode1
4
Wall St Cheat Sheet Says Bitcoin (BTC) in hopium phaseThis is just for fun. I'm predicting we are in the hope phase of the Wall St Cheat Sheet. If you think about it. That describes what everyone is doing...hoping that BTC is adopted by more people and moves into the next phase (optimism). I do not believe BTC is crashing. We might have even seen the yearly bottom put in after it found support at the bottom of the channel it's been in. Bitcoin looks very healthy and in an uptrend. The trend is your friend until the end. Traditionally, it's been the best time to buy at the bottom of the channel. Usually though nobody does because it feels like it's going to fall off a cliff.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by XYZ-Trader-
5
Half a year correction coming to an endLet's look at the numbers first: Fib 0.61 32.366 vwap 35.682 upper vwap 45.185 We are nearing the longterm trendline. Bollinger Bands are within Keltner Channel, which can tell that the market are preparing itself for an explosive move (up or down) - the key is to be objective and follow the signals - no hopium. For entering: - waiting till the first gray after a black cross, and taking a position in the direction of the momentum (for ex., if momentum value is above zero, go long and vice versa). - a breakout above the upper vwap at 45.185 will be a signal for going long Exiting the position - when the momentum changes (increase or decrease --- signified by a color change) - Shorts should be covering at this level as we see a color change and momentum moving to 0 Stock Market Fear & Greed Index is at 31 (Fear) Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is at 22 (Extreme Fear) Don't be controlled by fear, act on the signals. Good trading / investing - be smart follow your gut - not some random dude, telling you now is the time to buy be safe
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by lil_Buuck
Possible LTC Hopium ScenariosThese are 2 possible scenarios with LTC that I managed to create with similar structure patterns found from ETH. Scenario 1: was the first connection I found - where the trendline meets at the bottom 3 wicks at the bottom of the correction: - the 28% drop towards the end of the trendline before liftoff -same is shown with LTC currently Scenario 2: was something else I found due to the similar patterns ETH had shown before its leg up: - a 36% drop to its bottom before the leg up - same can is shown with LTC currently this isn't financial advice, just a chart full of hopium xD
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by iKuriosity
DXY - What If ... Whales are Preparing?Knowing how DXY and Bitcoin/Crypto have an inverse correlation. Also knowing that arguably the narrative around the USD/petrol dollar is weakening, especially after the Russia sanctions. And this as we approach a multi-decade resistance level for DXY. The last two taps on this level triggered a steep correction and two bull markets for crypto. And since the rumor is that the whales who set the floor in the lower $30s 1.5 months ago are the same ones still accumulating in this range- what if they are positioning for the possibility of another bull run? Of course I still have major reservations about any sort of investment in light of the macroeconomic climate, but crypto is still a new asset class so its hard to say definitively what will happen and it isn't unreasonable to say the DXY pattern and whale activity is correlated. I suspect this will be an interesting year for crypto.
INDEX:DXY
by 1BigPapi
My Bitcoin Hopium for Today on the Daily ChartMy idea is if we hold today and don't go any lower, having already learned the news that Russia is and did invade Ukraine, then the principle of "buy the rumor and sell the news" is in play, only on the short side. In other words, people shorted when first hearing of Ukraine and now after knowing what Putin would do we had another move down and now my thought is there is in "Hopium's View," no more downside left. Anyone entering shorts now would be shorting the news rather than the rumor. With that being said I am hoping this is a new low which would mean we didn't hit the low of 1/21 and therefore "hopefully" put in a lower low and we can now look for a higher high of above 46. You can see my ideas of where highs and lows might be and the time it may take to get there.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by MultiG8