SPX500 to continue its upward trend?? (This is just what I think is going to happen. My analysis is not to be taken as fact, and I cannot predict the future for real.)
So, I'm looking at the hourly chart here, but most of my analysis has been from the DAILY chart. I see current price is at $4,381.90, the highest it's been since the beginning of the year. Here we are at the halfway point, and SPX500, from what I see, is making nice gains. Price gone only gone up as far as $4,449.81 so far in the year (that happened on June 16th, 2023) but I think price will go up as far as $4,538.51 or further, by July 31st.
I only say this because of the technical analysis I've done, looking at candlestick patterns and the candlesticks themselves. From the research I've gathered, I see that at the beginning of the year, price was at $3,801.93. SPX500 stock has since dropped back down, to its lowest point of the year at $3,811.89, only $9.96 away from where price began in January 2023. I also see major S/R zones around $4,110-ish through $4,190-ish. Last time SPX500 made a big move from that S/R zone was when on June 21st, 2021 when price made a bullish rejection using the bullish-engulfing candlestick pattern. Price skyrocketed as high as $4,820-ish, the highest SPX500 has ever been.
Well, getting back on track, price rejected new support $4190-ish at the beginning of this month and it doesn't look to be slowing down. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm right. Tell me what you see in the comments, or share your thoughts about what I saw. Feedback is appreciated :)
xo, Mani
Hourchart
USDCHF, week 49's analysis, pending consolidation for week 50Week 49 ended with no significant price movement during NFP, I did not enter long, however, my view was NFP is going to bring USDJPY and USDCHF upwards.
From my analysis, it seems that USDCHF has broken down to level 2 from its level 1 zone, which reached a high back to level 3, M reversal zone. That did paralysed my outlook for a while because it made me rethink if level 3 and level 1 is the same zone or different. However, I decided to separate them because of the break of low from level 3 zone to level 1 zone.
It seems that USDCHF is going to consolidate for a while in level 2, or perhaps it can go straight down when market opens next week. Since I am a day trader, I am going to wait and see how this pair plays out. if it is going down straight, probably I will be looking for a pull back before entering a short one this pair.
Amongst the four most traded pairs for myself, I am taking comfort on long for GBPUSD, EURUSD, and short for USDCHF.
Even though USDJPY is currently seen to be on its level 3 reversal zone with an incomplete W reversal pattern, it is at most a 50% chance that it will rise. Given that it can go to level 4, 5 or more in a persistent market movement.
Please help me to like and share my trading ideas if it provides some insights for you. Remember to follow for my weekly analysis! Thank you!! =)
The BTC Bump is over.Fibonacci numbers on the way up were spot on. Use them on the way down for small gains.
This bump started when the Euro bulls got over excited at testing the November Dip. So I expect a retest of previous bottom at $5400, with another big bounce from the Dollar Bulls.
Watch for further indication from the RSI Daily dipping below 30%.
Caveat : I am not a professional trader or adviser. Do your own research before making any trade. Never trade more than you can afford to loose.
BTC - Don't be blinded by Emotion, be WISE!Price knows where these 3 ma indicators are. Once you see the trend pattern, don't let your emotions determine your trading, be wise. Wait for the pull back and continue with the trend. Leave a comment below how you determine the trend and how you trade it.
EURUSD 1 hour chart analysis by @reembegilAfter the US jobless claim news was negative (forecast=231 vs 239K) the EURUSD quote made a rebound at the .618 fibonacci retracement to keep going in a sideways trend between 1.16643-1.1694 (resistance zone) and 1.15739-1.15660 (support zone). As this week haven't seen too much volatility at the FX market my recommendation is to wait until the quote touch the resistance or support zones to define an entry.
Después de que las noticias de reclamo de desempleo en EE. UU. Fueron negativas (pronóstico = 231 vs 239 K) la cotización EURUSD hizo un rebote en el retroceso de .618 de Fibonacci para continuar en una tendencia lateral entre 1.16643-1.1694 (zona de resistencia) y 1.15739-1.15660 (zona de soporte) . Como esta semana no se ha visto demasiada volatilidad en el mercado de divisas, mi recomendación es esperar hasta que la cotización toque las zonas de resistencia o soporte para definir una entrada.
AUD/SGD 1H Chart: Channel DownAUD/SGD 1H Chart: Channel Down
The Australian Dollar is trading against the Singapore Dollar in a short-term descending channel, which consists of four reaction highs and three reaction lows and, thus, might be broken already by the end of the week.
Historically, the currency rate made multiple attempts to break to the top.
However, each time these endeavours were stopped by a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs.
The fact that this pair is so sensitive to the above moving averages suggests that a breakout in the northern direction is unlikely to happen.
Moreover, channels are continuation patterns and, thus, should not change a recently established general downtrend.
The above assumption is additionally supported by the fact that 73% of traders hold short positions on this currency pair.
EUR/SGD 1H Chart: PennantEUR/SGD 1H Chart: Pennant
The common European currency is advancing against the Singapore Dollar in a little pennant pattern that formed in the result of announcement of information on the US CPI last Friday.
Since the pair is moving in a continuation pattern, then breakout is expected to occur in the northern direction.
The length of the subsequent rise might amount to 50-60 basis points, which coincides with the updated weekly R1 located at the 1.6155 level.
This scenario is additionally supported by the pressure exercised by the 20- and 200-hour SMAs as well as the 55- and 100-hour SMAs plus the weekly PP at 1.6052.
Moreover, 71% of traders hold bullish positions on the given currency pair, while 65% of pending orders in 100-pips range are set to buy .
EUR/HKD 1H Chart: Descending TriangleEUR/HKD 1H Chart: Descending Triangle
The common European currency is trading against the Hong Kong Dollar in a descending triangle pattern . An existence of the figure became evident shortly after the currency pair failed to slip below the 9.1466 level multiple times.
In the early Monday morning the currency rate made a second rebound from the triangle’s resistance line and started to pave the way through a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs as well as the updated weekly PP at 9.1962.
From the trade pattern theory, the pair should successfully reach the bottom trend-line and continue to fluctuate within the formation until the end of the week. From a technical perspective this scenario seems rational, provided that fundamental events will not cause an unexpected jump of the rate.
GBP/CAD 1H Chart: PennantGBP/CAD 1H Chart: Pennant
The British Pound is trading against the Canadian Dollar in a pattern similar to pennant that started to form after a six-hour depreciation of the Sterling by 0.69%.
Traditionally, pennants themselves are made of symmetrical triangles, but this time it made of an ascending triangle.
From the triangle’ point of view, the breakout should occur in the northern direction.
But given that it represents only a part of larger, dominant formation, the currency rate is expected to continue to move to the south.
The length of the fall most likely is going to fluctuate between 100-120 basis points.
A summary of various technical indicators, generally, support this scenario by sending strong sell signals.
However, this scenario will break down if the currency rate fails to bypass the weekly S2 at 1.6340.
GBP/CAD 1H Chart: Channel UpGBP/CAD 1H Chart: Channel Up
The British Pound is trading against the Canadian Dollar in a short-term ascending channel that formed in the result of a 78-pips appreciation of the Loonie three days ago.
At the moment, it consists of two reaction highs and two reaction lows and, thus, might cease to exist already in the first half of the next week.
After reaching the 1.6561 level, the currency rate made an expected rebound and started to slip towards a combined support level set up by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, channel’s bottom trend-line and the weekly PP at 1.6519.
Even though the pair proved to be relatively indifferent towards the above technical indicators, a rebound is still expected to happen.
By the way, the pair might bounce off even earlier from the 200-hour SMA near 1.6533.
INTC short position Strong Bearish Trend!!
1: Testing the 100 EMA resistence
2: Stoch overbought
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