Get started

Householdspending

USD/JPY dips after US services data stumblesThe Japanese yen has rebounded on Thursday and is trading at 161.01, down 0.43% on the day. The yen has been on a slide over the past four weeks and has declined by 3.9% during that time. On Wednesday, the yen fell as low as 161.95, its lowest level since 1986. US markets are closed today for the Fourth of July holiday. The US ISM Services PMI disappointed on Wednesday, dropping to 48.8 in June. This was well below the May reading of 53.8 and the market estimate of 52.6 and marked the weakest reading since May 2020. The 50.0 level separates contraction from expansion. The Federal Reserve won’t mind the weak services data as its looks for signs of a slowdown before it lowers interest rates. The employment component of the Services PMI eased to 46.1 from 47.1 and the US market will be in the spotlight on Friday with the release of nonfarm payrolls for June. The markets are bracing for a gain of 190 thousand, compared to the surprisingly strong gain of 272 thousand in May. If nonfarm payrolls fall below the 200 thousand level, it will lend strong support for a rate cut in September, which currently has a 66% probability, according to the CME’s FedWatch. Japan’s Household Spending reeled off 13 straight declines before ending the streak with a gain of 0.5% m/m for April. The May report will be released early Friday and a weak gain of 0.1% is expected. Japanese consumers have been squeezed by high prices and weak consumer consumption is hampering sustained economic growth, which the Bank of Japan wants to see before it tightens monetary policy. USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY has pushed below the support at 1.6148 and is testing support at 161.00 There is resistance at 162.18 and 162.66
by OANDA
1
USD/JPY eyes household spendingThe Japanese yen is steady on Thursday after showing sharp swings throughout the week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.27, up 0.10% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s consumers have been holding tight on the purse strings as inflation remains high and economic conditions remain gloomy. In March, household spending declined to 1.2% m/m, down from 1.4% in February. The downswing is expected to continue, with a market estimate of just 0.2% for April. Japan releases GDP on Monday and the markets are bracing for some bad news. Japan’s economy is expected to have contracted in the first quarter, with a market estimate of -0.5% q/q, after no growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. Yearly, the economy is expected to have contracted by 2.0%, after a small gain of 0.4% in the fourth quarter. Private sector demand has fallen and exports are also down. A weak GDP release could delay any plans at the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. The BoJ meets on June 14th and has hinted that it will take steps on the path towards normalization. The Japanese yen remains at low levels and could lose more ground if the BoJ doesn’t change any policy settings at the meeting. The US wraps up the week with nonfarm payrolls on Friday and the report is expected to show that the US labor market is slowly cooling off. In April, nonfarm payrolls fell to 175,000 down sharply from 330,000 in March. This marked the weakest job growth in six months. Little change is expected in the May report, with a market estimate of 185,000. USD/JPY tested support at 155.75 earlier. Below, there is support at 155.01 156.86 and 157.60 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Japanese yen jumpy ahead of US payrollsThe Japanese yen showed a bit of strength earlier but has pared these gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 15141, up 0.04% The markets are bracing for a sharp drop in US nonfarm payrolls for March. Job growth hit 353,000 in January but then fell to 275,000 in February and the market estimate for March stands at 200,000. The labour market has stood up well in the face of elevated interest rates but another decline in the March data would indicate a clear downtrend in job growth, which would support the Federal Reserve deciding to lower interest rates sooner rather than later. When can we expect the Fed to take the plunge and start lowering interest rates? That is a tough one to answer, especially because not all Fed members are on the same page, as evidenced by comments this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that although inflation has been bumpy, he expected the Fed to lower rates “at some point this year”. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed this position, saying that the Fed was becoming more confident that it could lower rates in the next few months. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari sounded more hawkish, as he questioned if rate cuts were needed this year “if we continue to see inflation moving sideways”. Kashkari does not have a vote on monetary policy but his comments indicate that a rate cut is not a given and will depend on the data, in particular inflation. In Japan, household spending rebounded in February with a gain of 1.4% y/y, compared to -2.1% in January. This beat the market estimate of 0.5%. On an annualized basis, household spending dropped 0.5%, following a 6.3% decline in January and beating the market estimate of -3%. The 0.5% decline marks a 12th straight drop in household spending but the rebound leaves room for optimism. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 151.41. Above, there is resistance at 151.71 There is support at 151.06 and 150.76
by OANDA
USD/JPY gains ground, Fed minutes show policy divisionsThe Japanese yen is showing strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.82, down 0.57%. The Federal Reserve has been aggressively tightening rates in order to curb inflation but took a pause in June after ten consecutive hikes. At the meeting, the Fed said that a pause would provide members with time to assess the impact of the hikes, which have amounted to some 500 basis points. The minutes of the June meeting were significant in highlighting that Fed members were in disagreement about the decision to pause rates. The decision to pause may have been unanimous, but the minutes made it clear that there was a difference of opinions, with some members preferring a hike but reluctantly agreeing to a pause. There was also disagreement over the pace of tightening in the second half of the year, with 16 of 18 members expecting at least one hike and 12 members expecting two or more hikes. After the minutes, the money markets slightly raised the probability of a 0.25% hike in July from 86% to 91%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The pricing could continue to change, with two key reports ahead of the July meeting. The non-farm payrolls report will be released on Friday. Job growth is expected to have cooled to 225,000 in June, down sharply from 339,000 in May. This will be followed by the June inflation report next week, with headline inflation expected to fall from 4.0% to around 3.0%. Japan releases Household Spending and Average Cash Earnings on Friday. Household Spending declined by 4.4% in April and another decline of 2.4% is expected for May, as inflation has dampened consumer spending. Average Cash Earnings gained 1% in May and the consensus for June stands at 0.7%. There is resistance at 145.28 and 146.23 144.11 is a weak support level. The next support line is 143.16
by OANDA
USD/JPY shrugs after Japanese wages, household spending falterUSD/JPY is almost unchanged today, trading at 135.18. Japan's households are again holding tightly to the purse strings, as household spending fell 1.9% y/y in March, following a 1.6% gain in February. The consensus estimate stood at 0.4%. Household spending has been in a slump, with only one gain in the past five readings. There was no relief from wage data, as real wages declined in March for a twelfth straight month, at -2.9%. Nominal pay growth rose 0.8% y/y in March, but this fell well short of the CPI rate of 3.8% used to calculate real wages. In March, large companies negotiated substantial wage hikes, but so far this has not translated into higher wage growth, which could prod new Governor Ueda to normalize policy. Investors are hoping for some insights into Ueda's plans, with the release of the BoJ Summary of  Opinions on Wednesday. The summary covers the BoJ's April meeting, the first to be chaired by Ueda. At the meeting, the BoJ removed guidance on rate levels and said it would conduct a review of its policies. The Federal Reserve has warned that the turmoil in the banking sector has led to tighter credit conditions which could slow down growth in the US economy. These concerns were highlighted in the Fed's bi-annual financial stability report. The Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey echoed these worries, with bank officials saying that they would tighten lending requirements and expressing concerns about a recession and deposit withdrawals. The financial stability report tried to put on a positive spin, stating, that "a large majority of banks" were able to handle the strain from higher rates and that US  banks were "well capitalised". Still, the Fed will have to keep in mind the danger of contagion and give thought to cutting rates later in the year in order to minimize the chances of a recession. USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 135.37. Above, the next resistance line is 137.24 There is support at 134.50 and 132.97
by OANDA
USD/JPY jumps after solid nonfarm payrolls releaseUSD/JPY has posted gains in the North American session after a solid showing from US nonfarm payrolls. Japan's real wages continued to fall, while household spending rebounded. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 132.24, up 0.36% on the day. In the US, nonfarm payrolls was within expectations, easing concerns that the US labour market is in trouble. The economy added 236,000 in March, close to the market consensus of 240,000. This was a solid reading, although weaker than the February reading of 311,000. The US dollar posted gains against the majors after the release, after concerns that a soft reading might force the Fed to take a pause in its rate hikes. Japan's real wages fell in February for the 11th straight month, falling by 2.6%. Household purchasing power continues to drop, but this was an improvement over the -4.6% release in January, as government energy subsidies helped curb inflation. Household spending rose 1.6% in February, rebounding from -0.3% in January but well off the market consensus of 4.3%. The Bank of Japan doesn't meet until April 28th, but Governor Ueda will be under the magnifying glass, as he chairs his first meeting at the helm of the central bank. The economy is showing signs of improvement, with retail sales and industrial production accelerating in February. Inflation remains very low compared to other major economies but is still high for Japan. In February, CPI fell to 3.3%, down from 4.3% in January but above the BoJ target of 2%. There has been considerable speculation that Ueda could shift policy and tweak or even abandon the Bank's yield curve control policy. This move could have huge significance for the yen - when the BoJ widened the yield target band in December, the yen posted sharp gains. Ueda hasn't revealed any cards about what he might do at his first meeting. He has toed the line of the previous Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, that the BoJ won't tighten until inflation is sustainable, and that would require higher wage growth. Wage growth has been falling, so any tightening moves such as raising interest rates do not appear imminent. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 132.27. Above, there is resistance at 133.45 130.94 and 129.09 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/JPY eyes inflation, household dataThe Japanese yen is calm on Monday and is trading slightly higher, at 132.27. The yen ended the week on a strong note, posting gains of about 1% on Friday. USD/JPY has shown significant volatility since late December. Last week, the pair traded in a range of over 500 points, which included breaking below the 130 line for the first time since May. We could see stronger movement again today, as Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI and Household Spending later in the day. Tokyo Core CPI has been moving steadily higher since January 2022, when it came it a negligible 0.2%. The December report rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4%, and the upward trend is expected to continue, with a forecast of 3.8% for January. After years of deflation, rising prices have become the new norm. The Bank of Japan has repeatedly stated that it will not change its ultra-loose policy due to higher inflation. Governor Kuroda said last month that he expects inflation to fall below the 2% target as the effect of soaring import costs will ease. The BOJ shocked the markets in December by widening the yield curve band, and there is speculation that Kuroda's successor, who will take over in April, could raise the yield targets on long-term bonds, which would be a major policy change. High inflation has taken a bite out of Household Spending, which fell to 1.2% in October, down from 2.3% a month earlier. The downtrend is expected to continue, with a weak gain of 0.6% expected for November. The US dollar was lower across the board on Friday, after the US posted some soft data. Nonfarm payrolls was slightly better than expected at 223,000, but wage growth headed lower. Average hourly earnings rose 4.6%, well off the 5.0% estimate and shy of the prior reading of 4.8%. The ISM Services PMI underperformed, slipping to 49.6, down sharply from 56.5 and the forecast of 55.5. This marked the first time the PMI has fallen into contraction territory since May 2020, with a reading below the neutral 50.0 threshold. The drop in wages and the weak services data indicate that the US economy is slowing and is likely to tip into recession, which could force the Fed to reconsider its aggressive rate-tightening policy. There is weak support at 132.13, followed by 131.14 133.28 and 134.75 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Aussie shrugs off soft GDPThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement for a second successive day. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6696, up 0.12%. Australia's economy underperformed in Q3, with a modest gain of 0.6% m/m. This was lower than the Q2 print of 0.9% and beneath the 0.7% consensus and also marked the weakest quarterly growth this year. Annualized GDP climbed 5.9%, an improvement from 3.6% in Q2 but shy of the consensus of 6.2%. The RBA is projecting that GDP will continue to slow through to 2024. The economy is showing clear signs of slowing down. Services, manufacturing and construction PMIs are all in decline. There was more bad news this week - Current Account for Q3 showed a deficit for the first time since 2019 and Company Operating Profits fell by 12.4% in the third quarter. Household spending remains strong, but high inflation continues to erode savings and consumers will have no choice but to cut back on spending at some point. Inflation has been more persistent than the RBA anticipated, and Governor Lowe has reiterated that inflation is a "scourge" that must be defeated. The RBA would prefer to avoid a recession, but it will be a tricky task to guide the economy to a soft landing. The RBA raised rates by 25 bp on Tuesday, bringing the cash rate to 3.10%. The move was widely expected. As a result, the Australian dollar showed a muted response. There was little of note in Governor Lowe's rate statement, which was almost identical to the November statement. Lowe noted that the RBA expects to increase rates, but "is not on a pre-set course" and rate decisions would be data-dependent. This last point may seem obvious, but events such as consumer spending, employment and inflation will be key drivers which determine rate policy in the early part of 2023. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to the terminal rate, which forecasts ranging from 3.3% all the way to 3.8%. This means there is some life left in the current rate cycle, and there is a strong possibility that the RBA will deliver another 25 bp hike at its next meeting in February. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6676 earlier. Next, there is support at 0.6558 There is resistance at 0.6760 and 0.6878
by OANDA
USD/JPY roars back after solid NFPThe Japanese yen has been on an impressive streak but has dropped sharply on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 135.83, up 1.13% on the day. The US dollar is showing some signs of life, courtesy of Friday's US employment report, which was stronger than expected. The economy created 263,000 jobs in November, slightly lower than the October reading of 284,000 but well above the consensus of 200,000. Wage growth also outperformed, as the reading of 5.1% y/y was up from 4.9% and beat the forecast of 4.6%. The labor market continues to show a surprising resiliency and the increase in wage growth will drive inflationary pressure. It was less than two months ago that the ailing Japanese yen was below the 150 level and there was increasing talk of Tokyo implementing another currency intervention to save the currency. The yen has turned the tables, gaining a superb 7.4% in November and another 2% so far in December as it trades at its highest levels since mid-August. At the same time, it's important to note that the yen's recent upswing is more a story of broad weakness on the part of the US dollar rather than newfound strength in the Japanese currency. The Bank of Japan has no plans to change its ultra-accommodative policy, which has capped rate yields and weighed heavily on the yen, which is still down by about 18% against the dollar this year. With the Fed signalling that rates could go higher than it previously anticipated, the US/Japan rate differential will continue to widen and make the yen less attractive to investors. Japan releases Household Spending later today for October, with a consensus of 1.0%. The downturn is expected to continue, following a 2.3% gain in September and 5.1% a month earlier. This will be followed on Wednesday with GDP for Q3, with an estimate of -1.1%. The economy contracted by 1.2% in the second quarter, so another decline in growth would mean that technically the economy would be in recession. If these releases are weaker than expected, the US dollar could gain more ground. USD/JPY is putting strong pressure on resistance at 135.96. Above, there is resistance at 1.3699 There is support at 1.3412 and 1.3333
by OANDA
Japanese yen can't buy any loveThe Japanese yen is down sharply for a second straight day. USD/JPY is trading at 144.87 in the North American session, up 1.45% on the day. Later today, Japan releases Final GDP, which is expected to come in at 0.7%, up from the initial GDP estimate of 0.5%. It's been a disastrous week so far for the yen, as USD/JPY has jumped 3.31% and is quickly closing in on the 145 line, which hasn't been breached in 24 years. It was just a few days ago that there was concern about the yen breaking 140, and here we are at the lofty 145 level. Predictably, Tokyo has responded with warnings about the yen's performance, with the Chief Cabinet Secretary saying that officials are ready to take action if necessary and the situation is being carefully watched. We've heard this rhetoric before, but the lip service hasn't been backed by any action. The 145 line is not a magic line in the sand that will trigger intervention by the Ministry of Finance, but if officials elect to stay on the sideline, we can expect the yen to continue to depreciate in the current economic climate. Japan's Household Spending, released on Tuesday, was a disappointment. The reading of 3.4% for July dipped from 3.5% in June and missed the 4.2% estimate. Domestic activity has improved somewhat in the post-Covid era but the economy remains weak and households continue to be hit with high prices for energy and food. Inflation is around 3%, much lower than in other major economies and not enough to force the BoJ to tighten policy. With the BoJ enforcing a cap on JGB yields and the US/Japan rate differential widening, there is more room for the yen's slide to continue. USD/JPY has support at 142.75 and 141.48 USD/JPY is testing resistance at 144.70. Above, there is resistance at 146.65
by OANDA
1
Yen edges lower ahead of household spendingUSD/JPY continues to gain ground and has pushed across the 134 line. In the European session, the pair is trading at 134.12, up 0.20%. The week started off nicely for the Japanese yen, which took advantage of broad weakness in the US dollar. USD/JPY fell 1.22% on Monday and touched a low of 131.60, its lowest level since mid-June. However, the dollar has since recovered and then some with a strong rally. Japan's household spending was miserable in May but is expected to bounce back in the June report. Household spending declined in May by 1.9% MoM, with a June forecast of a 0.2% gain. On an annualized basis, Household Spending fell in May by 0.5%, marking a third straight decline. The forecast for June is for a strong gain of 1.5%. Inflation is much lower in Japan than in other major economies, but food and electricity prices have been rising sharply due to the war in Ukraine. Households have responded by cutting their spending on items such as vegetables and cars. A rebound in the June report would indicate increased consumption. That would certainly be good news for the economy, which contracted in the first quarter. There is increased chatter in the markets about the Fed nearing the end of its rate-tightening cycle and actually lowering rates, but Fed policymakers are trying to dispel that notion. A slew of Fed members have been sending out the message that the inflation battle is far from over and further rate hikes are coming. James Bullard, for example, said that he expects 1.5% or more in rate increases this year and the hikes won't peak until the Fed is convinced that inflation is easing lower. Bullard downplayed the consecutive quarters of negative growth in the US, saying that the strong labour market was proof that the US was not in a recession. The Fed does not hold a policy meeting until September and will have some time to monitor data and determine whether to deliver a rate hike of 50bp or 75bp.  USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 134.40, which was tested on Wednesday. 136.30 is the next resistance line There is support at 131.34 and 130.70
by OANDA
1