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Housemarkets

House Prices have likely reached a topParty's over. Now comes the bill. Housing prices have experienced an artificial inflated price surge from march 2020 that needs to be corrected. RSI sell signal MACD just crossed the signal and it's bound to change direction. Stochastic RSI at virtual 0 also signals a possible change to a bear market that is still yet to occur, which often happens at a second bounce to a lower high. First target is 345. Using 2008 as reference price index can go as low as 310, to the 0.38 retracement, however back then - from the shock reaction to the bubble bursting - we didn't experience the recession we would have had if the Fed didn't eased the economy, quantitatively speaking, if you know what I mean. If the Fed lets the house market drive its natural course, and if we experience a deflationary economy in the mean time, I wouldn't be surprised if we went as low as 290 or 260 on a longer term. DYOR
ECONOMICS:USHPIShort
by Zerkaalo
Opendoor Technologies entry pursuit As requested by a follower: Opendoor Technlogies NASDAQ:OPEN - Currently this is a high risk trade as we are reaching oversold on the weekly and price is close to overhead resistance Positives and entry levels: - Above 200 day moving average & sloping upwards - A pull back to 200 day would be an ideal entry - Break above the OBV resistance line could indicate further push through I would not be entering this trade unless we revisited the 200 day or broke through the OBV resistance. Opendoor is a small $2.68bln market cap company aiming to make selling your home as easy as clicking a few buttons. There are a lot of unknowns in the housing sector however a new CFO was appointed in Dec 2022 and she seems to have the company back on the front foot which is positive. #opendoor Opendoors mission statement: Opendoor is an e-commerce platform for residential real estate that allows people to buy, sell and move online. Our vision is to build a one-stop shop that allows people to move with the tap of a button.
NASDAQ:OPEN
by PukaCharts
2
SAVILLS UK HOUSING MARKET IS MAKING A MASSIVE RISING WEDGEHello Traders, Big rising wedge formation on Savills here with price on the top trend line of the wedge in overbought conditions with bear div on the RSI, it looks like a throw over. Is the UK housing market in a bubble or will the price break the top of the wedge into uncharted territory? Notice the bounce on the 24 year long trendline, I thought that was interesting anyway. Im bearish here based on the chart, but also realise price could break above the wedge. What are your thoughts?
LSE:SVS
by WickHunter
1
Present and On-Going Forecast Real Estate Market The formula that I worked on for weeks, finally I can put the puzzles together a chart of an ongoing real estate chart and what I provided is an economic formula that's used to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and mortgage rates. Here's what each part of the formula means in more detail: MSPUS: This variable represents the median sales price of houses sold in the United States. The median sales price is the price at which half the houses sold for more and half sold for less. MORTGAGE30US: This variable represents the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the United States. A mortgage is a loan that people take out to buy a house, and the interest rate on the mortgage can affect the overall cost of the house over time. USCPI: This variable represents the United States Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of inflation. Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and it can affect the value of money over time. The formula itself is a bit complicated, but it's essentially using these variables to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and the impact of mortgage rates. Here's how the formula works: 1+MORTGAGE30US/100 calculates the interest rate on the mortgage, expressed as a decimal. ^0.08333 raises this interest rate to the power of 0.08333, which represents the monthly interest rate. 1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333-1 calculates the mortgage payment factor, which is the amount by which the median sales price of houses sold needs to be adjusted based on the mortgage interest rate. 1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333 calculates the present value of the mortgage payments. (1-(1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333)^360) calculates the total value of all of these mortgage payments by taking the present value of each payment, summing them over the 360 months of the mortgage, and then subtracting that sum from 1. USCPI*300 adjusts the value of the expression by the consumer price index multiplied by 300, which accounts for the effects of inflation over time. MSPUS is then multiplied by the result of steps 3, 5, and 6 to calculate the adjusted median sales price of houses sold. When you put it all together, the formula is a complex expression that takes into account mortgage rates, inflation, and a value in US dollars, and calculates a value that has been adjusted by these factors, By using this formula, you can get a more accurate picture of the real cost of buying a house over time, which can help them make more informed decisions about the housing market. The formula that I worked on for weeks, finally I can put the puzzles together a chart of an ongoing real estate chart and what I provided is an economic formula that's used to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and mortgage rates. Here's what each part of the formula means in more detail: MSPUS: This variable represents the median sales price of houses sold in the United States. The median sales price is the price at which half the houses sold for more and half sold for less. MORTGAGE30US: This variable represents the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the United States. A mortgage is a loan that people take out to buy a house, and the interest rate on the mortgage can affect the overall cost of the house over time. USCPI: This variable represents the United States Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of inflation . Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and it can affect the value of money over time. The formula itself is a bit complicated, but it's essentially using these variables to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and the impact of mortgage rates. Here's how the formula works: 1+MORTGAGE30US/100 calculates the interest rate on the mortgage, expressed as a decimal. ^0.08333 raises this interest rate to the power of 0.08333, which represents the monthly interest rate. 1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333-1 calculates the mortgage payment factor, which is the amount by which the median sales price of houses sold needs to be adjusted based on the mortgage interest rate. 1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333 calculates the present value of the mortgage payments. (1-(1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333)^360) calculates the total value of all of these mortgage payments by taking the present value of each payment, summing them over the 360 months of the mortgage, and then subtracting that sum from 1. USCPI*300 adjusts the value of the expression by the consumer price index multiplied by 300, which accounts for the effects of inflation over time. MSPUS is then multiplied by the result of steps 3, 5, and 6 to calculate the adjusted median sales price of houses sold. When you put it all together, the formula is a complex expression that takes into account mortgage rates, inflation , and a value in US dollars, and calculates a value that has been adjusted by these factors, By using this formula, you can get a more accurate picture of the real cost of buying a house over time, which can help them make more informed decisions about the housing market.
FRED:MSPUS
by riestas241
2
⚫️Existing Home Sales🔵Home prices🔴Top S&P500Not an easy chart but give it a try dear Bitcoin and Crypto Nation Look at connections of different Tops in financial crisis 2008 and possible hints for near future: ⚫️Top Existing Home Sales precursor of 🔵Top Home prices precursor of 🔴Top S&P500 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
ECONOMICS:USEHS
by Crypto4Everybody
Housing Market Rocket Ride to Continue? M2 Money Printer BrrringFMAC HPI Housing price index is interesting to look at versus the money supply. Both are always increasing and fairly predictable since 2012. The HPI tends to follow this ebb and flow moving up all the time, until this year where we haven't seen it's typical plateau. When you check the money supply trend, M2, we can see that if we follow the trend going back to like 2012, that since January 2020 we should have seen only around a 3% max increase in the money supply, and maybe actually flat if we were at the bottom channel. Instead we've seen 18% more increase than the 3% we anticipated, for a total of around 21% increase where we would have expected a maximum of only 3%. Now looking at the HPI we can see that very typically it ebbs and flows in these 4-6% up cycles, lets call them 5%. This year we haven't see that plateau and have gone straight up about 10%, only double. The question is how correlated are these two, are we set to see another 35% straight increase in the HPI over the coming months and years??? 21% increase / 3% anticipated increase in M2 = 7 times anticipated 10% increase / 5% anticipated increase in HPI = 2 times anticipated 7 / 2 = 3.5 times HPI lag versus the money supply Will we see that 3.5 times lag play out as another 30% straight increase in the HPI? Many other factors such as supply and demand play factors in the housing market, but this is an interesting one to watch.
F
by TraderCaps
The velocity of money is plunging so let's make some coin off itHardly surprising though, this has taken place whenever GDP contracts & unemployment increases as it certainly will this year. I think one would suspect that this could lead to risk of deflationary effects - which I know sounds odd when one thinks and sees first hand the rampant money printing and radical expansion of money supply, and inflation increasing. I am still heavily biased towards inflation arising over the next few years, with rates eventually rising to combat inflation - but I do want to be on the lookout for any hints as swiftly as possible that my ideology may be wrong. I suspect this drop within the velocity of money is especially pronounced in hospitality industries, restaurants, hotels, aerospace, airlines, tourist destinations - where capital is not being exchanged as freely. We also have unemployment up so some individuals simply are being much more wary of purchasing wants, with potential needs still needing to be met on the horizon. I think mfg's as well have had supply issues coupled with demand issues, with inventories only now ramping back up. With the low demand, and low supply this is a sour recipe that creates less opportunities for transactions, again hurting the velocity of money. What does all of this mean? I think one needs to carefully weigh the proper strategies in the event inflation or deflation where to occur. In the event of the dreaded stagflation again, the writing will be more clear if that is to occur, but again we need to plan accordingly and develop strategies for each. A simple strategy I am doing even outside of the fixed income corporate debt/Div yield strategies etc is within actual real estate. If one were to acquire a home in this environment and inflationary affects play out, you essentially get to double dip on the inflationary affects in a favorable manner. the devaluation of the dollar will be an effect of the inflation. What does this mean for your mortgage? The dollar amount of the debt side of the mortgage will decrease in value, relative to the purchasing power of the dollars within the debt. The debt itself gets eroded away from inflation. Very favorable if you have debt. We want equity with debt of course though. And much more equity relative to the volume of debt. The equity of the home will actually be continuing to rise because the value of dollars continuing to loose value will require more dollars to purchase the same amount of equity - meaning the equity increases in terms of dollars. So inflation will result in the loan decreasing in a dollar weighted comparison, while the equity in the home will increase because of the dollar's devaluation. Equity relative to a home is one thing, but this comparison can be made with equities (stocks) as well, but I think the home comparison may be helpful in getting my logic communicated clearly. Again, this does not mean to go wild longing equities - just like you do not want to go wild and start buying junk houses in the middle of Antarctica We need to be tacticians with finesse ***If you have a great strategy please be sure to share it with me.***
FRED:WM2NS
by ZenMode
7
Persimmon - Looks set to re-build its share price.Technicals Persimmon is holding at key support and showing signs of attracting value hunters. I also note the bullish divergence on the relative ratio (Persimmon share price / UKX). The price of sterling has been a drag on the shares and with GBP moving higher yesterday it could offer some relief to domestic stocks. Technically and fundamentally, Persimmon looks good value here. Fundamentals Persimmon currently ranks towards the top of our fundamental model with exceptional scores on value, profitability, momentum and quality metrics. The shares have underperformed the market over the past 1 to 3 months but we do not expect this to continue. Pros Ranks in the top 5 of our fundamental ranking model. Canaccord Genuity reiterated ‘Buy’ advice on the 20th August with a price target of 2720p. The business continues to produce steady cash flow and boasts a healthy dividend. Cons Sales have slowed in recent months. Peel Hunt reiterated its hold rating on the 1st May 2019 with a price target of 2025p. Complaints have been raised about the quality of Persimmon homes, this may act as a drag in the short term. Stop: 1790p Target: 2430p
LSE:PSNLong
by Investamate
3