Bubble everything - 2024-NOV-13Taking into account "bubble everything" theory and ~18-years cycle on financial markets + on top of that ~4-years cycle in crypto markets ... we have roughly 6-7 ATH on everything.
Then bubble will start bursting.
Housing markets will need 4-7 years to visit new bottoms.
Stocks & crypto will need ~1 year to catch new bottoms.
What's going to be the trigger to bubble everything burst?
Housing
RECESSION ALERT - Homebuilders WAY Overbought | SHORT $KBHLeverage. It's a beautiful thing.
There is not much to say about this one, the chart speaks for itself.
Brief Disclaimer: this chart has evaded me - I personally think it should have corrected awhile ago (see grey arrows). Nonetheless, I never bought it... WHY?:
The economy is now well into a recession (has been for at least a year). For whatever reason this thing was bought into the stratosphere.
Now comes profit-taking and the COLLAPSE! This baby is going DEEP!
Thank you for playing.
💀💀💀
Emerging Real Estate, Infrastructure (nal jal yojna) & PM Aawas Apollo pipes ltd is having good dealership network in north India, once they spread across the rest of the country, they will undoubtedly at among top players in upvc and pvc pipes.
one can bet on their stock for coming 3 years, buy strategically at current level 538-542, accumulate more around at 494 finally buy more at 430 for the first target of 600 second target at of 750 finally book profit at 900 all above targets are likely to observe by the end of December24 to January 2025.
This is not a buy recommendation, this is my personal idea and view for upcoming 6 months to 3-year time frame, one should take advise from his financial advisor before investing.
Refer Chart for Logic and Analysis methodology.
USHPI / US House Price Index US House Price Index (USHPI) Analysis:
The chart indicates that after a prolonged period of growth, the US housing market is approaching a critical point. The index is currently at its peak, but there are strong indications of an impending decline.
Short-Term Outlook:
As we approach early 2025, the chart suggests a major downturn in housing prices. The red arrow points to the anticipated decline, with the index potentially dropping to a range between 259.36 and 299.29 points. This decline reflects a significant correction in the housing market, which could be driven by various factors, including rising interest rates, reduced consumer affordability, and broader economic challenges.
Mid to Long-Term Outlook:
Following this decline, the chart predicts a recovery period starting around 2027, with a potential rebound in housing prices, as indicated by the green arrow. This recovery is expected to continue into the 2030s, with the market gradually regaining strength.
Key Considerations:
Economic Conditions: The projected downturn coincides with a period of economic instability, possibly driven by higher interest rates and a strained economy. This could result in decreased demand for housing, leading to lower prices.
Market Timing: For those looking to invest in real estate, the period from 2027 onwards might present an excellent buying opportunity, as prices begin to recover from the expected lows.
Long-Term Strategy: The long-term outlook suggests that the market will eventually recover, but the initial phase of the 2025 downturn could be severe, with a prolonged period of lower prices.
US HOUSING MARKET CRASHUS Real Estate Price Index Analysis:
The chart illustrates a long-term upward trend in the US real estate market, with prices consistently climbing over the years. However, we are now approaching a critical phase that requires close attention.
Pre-Election Period and Mid-2025 Outlook:
As we move towards the upcoming elections and into mid-2025, real estate prices in the US are expected to continue their ascent. This trend will be heavily influenced by consumer purchasing power and interest rates on loans, which individuals should monitor separately. The continued growth is driven by demand, but this is likely to face significant headwinds soon.
Impending Crisis in 2025:
As we enter 2025, the real estate market is on the brink of a major crisis. Prices are predicted to plummet, potentially falling to an average of $380,000 per home. If prices break below this level and sustain, we could see a further drop, possibly revisiting the 2020 price levels where the average home price ranged between $280,000 and $300,000.
Market Correction and Future Growth:
The market is expected to correct by approximately 30%, after which it should resume its growth trajectory. This correction will be tied to the growing unaffordability of new homes for the average family, as credit interest rates rise to levels beyond the reach of many. Consequently, more people will opt to rent rather than buy, leading to an oversupply in the market as homeowners struggle to keep up with mortgage payments.
With the increasing number of properties flooding the market and demand not keeping pace, the imbalance will push prices down. Additionally, global military conflicts and the policies of the Democratic Party, should they win the election again, will likely lead to a prolonged two-year recession from early 2025 to the end of 2026. Real estate will be one of the last sectors to recover from this crisis.
Strategic Buying Opportunity:
Given this outlook, I anticipate a market bottom by the end of 2026, making early 2027 the optimal time to purchase real estate in the US. This period should offer the best prices before the market stabilizes and begins its next growth phase.
TOLL Brothers #TOL new high vs US single family home priceHomemakers are making money over fist.
Does this confirm that the housing bull market will continue.
It seems like it doesn't it
This ratio highlights the housing bottom in the 90's
this Ratio also topped out in 2005 before the housing bubble popped
#Roaring20's
The #FED R FOOLS (or LIAR's) - Chart with 100% chance recession"The Fed sees no recession until at leat 2027 and a very smooth landing"
They are either ignoring blatant economic indicators
Or straight out lying to the public, and the media.
As this chart shows.
When Housing starts go down
and unemployment starts spiking
a recession almost immediately follows .
If I can see that with no economics background, no MBA, or experience in Finance surely they can too!!!
Bull Market in Housing to continue till 2027It would surprise many.
So far House prices have been holding up with rates going parabolic
Strong economies can usually handle a few years of stable rates in around 5%
Supercycle's generally last 16-18 years
As we saw in the great Bull run of 1982 to 2000
A repeat of this cycle timeframe: would mean
#Bitcoin top 2025 (2009 inception)
#Stocks 2026 (march 2009)
#property 2027 due to lag and time to make a sale. (End of 2011)
Macro View Shows 2-4 Month Max And Then It Starts!Traders,
Some rather ominous signs are showing in various markets not least of which includes the U.S. housing market. As you know, we have been periodically tracking the USHMI as a key leading indicator to show us where and when our coming U.S. (perhaps global) recession begins. We are close if we have not already begun, but I imagine there will be no ability for denial in about 2-4 months time. Before then, markets may continue to blow off and I still expect Bitcoin to hit our 85k target. Today we'll review our USHMI chart along with other key charts for further clues mapping future trajectory.
Rio Realio $Rio #Rio #RealioRWA's (Real world assets) Will be and have been a HUGE narrative in this cycle as well as will most likely be even bigger by next cycle and in the next cycle. Quite possibly besides gaming they will also be one of the few sectors that not only will survive the next Bear market AKA. Crypto Winter but may also end up being far less effected by it and or even end up growing and staying upwards during it.
There overall will someday be no real reason for true working projects and ideas to have a winter per say. As they will move with the market they entertain and will grow as the projects deliver real world use and or adoption.
At some point we will see gaming and RWA's that are winning actually hit highs during the Bear/Winter rather than in the peak of cycles. There are many reason for this to become true but i will save that for another post/charting upcoming.
IMO Rio will be one of the shining stars in this upcoming cycle and IMO we will easily see it hit $3-$5 ranges in the next few months followed by a possibly cycle top well beyond that.
IMO the current market cap is relatively small for what is coming for this space as well as the current popularity of this project.
IMO we are currently just in the first major distribution and consolidation phases for this project after having a major run from the start of this cycle.
Depending upon your time horizon and rather or not your looking to just trade this VS invest in it you can use the lines given for areas of key interest to BUY and SELL and or just BUY/DCA and wait for those longer term targets to show up for the real Gains/Profit's etc.
LL Flooring Revision: Back From The GraveBuilding your new home is exciting, especially when you understand how the process works. It’s understandable that buyers are excited to see their new home built from start to finish says Chip Perschino, senior vice president of construction at Edward Andrew Homes.
“Our homeowners enjoy watching the home come together, from pouring the foundation to framing and watching the home take shape,” he says. “Once the home has drywall, they start to visualize themselves living in the space and how they’ll use it — imagining what furniture goes where and how they’ll entertain friends and family there.
Macro Monday 29 - U.S. Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales U.S. Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales
U.S. Existing Home Sales
U.S. Existing Home Sales data helps us to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic health in the U.S.
In simple terms U.S. Existing Home Sales is a seasonally adjusted record of previously owned homes that have been sold in the United States (per unit).
The monthly data report is released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and It is a lagging indicator since people often make housing choices in response to a changes in interest rates (which would lead ahead of this dataset).
Decembers report will be released this Friday 19th Jan. I will update the chart then so we can see how the trend is developing.
The Chart
You can clearly see that we have been in a downtrend since October 2020 where we topped out at 6.73m units. Thereafter from Jan 2022 – October 2023 we fell precipitously from 6.34m down to 3.79m.
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. went up 0.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.82m units in November 2023 (a turning point?), rising for the first time in five months, and rebounding from 3.79m in October which was the lowest level since August 2010.
Whilst we are waiting for December 2023 figures, the Jan – Mar 2024 figures will also provide a good sentiment gauge for the direction in 2024.
The chart has that look at present that it is basing here or potentially changing trend. Accessibility to existing homes is clearly low at present and one would think that low existing home sales clogs up the market and liquidity that might flow with it and the economy however, the low existing house sales also appears to create demand for New Homes which we will cover next.
U.S. New Home Sales
New Home Sales, also known as "new residential sales," is an economic indicator that measures sales of newly built homes (seasonally adjusted for annualized figures).
The New Home Sales measure compiles data through interviews with home-builders and analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Construction. Specifically, it utilizes information on building permits issued for new construction projects. A home is considered part of the measure if a deposit was paid for its purchase or if a contract to purchase was signed within or after the year of its construction.
The construction of new homes contributes significantly to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the U.S. It involves spending on materials, labor, and various services, which can stimulate economic activity. New home sales data is a critical metric for assessing economic health, understanding employment trends, and gaining insights into the dynamics of the housing market.
The Chart
You can clearly see that we never really recovered after the 2005 peak of 1.39m units, however bottomed in 2011 and started making a slow climb from 273k to a 1.04m peak in August 2020. This remains the recent peak and has not been recovered.
An almost 50% reduction in New Home Sales followed reducing from 1.04m to 543k units over 23 months ending July 2022.
We are currently 10% above this level at 590k (for Nov) having rolled over in July 2023 from 728k.
The chart looks very concerning. Should we lose the diagonal and horizontal support with this month or next months data release, it could be very telling of a struggling new housing market. We have tested the horizontal support three times and you would hope that this would hold. Time will tell.
Comparing the Charts
Here is where it gets a little interesting.
When you look at both charts and compare them you can see that between June 2022 and Sept 2023 the decreasing EXISTING home sales negatively correlated with the increase in NEW home sales. This would make surface level sense given the lack of existing homes being available creating a need for new housing.
In recent months there has been a sharp divergence in the opposite direction, particularly in NEW home sales, which plunged from 717k in Sept 2023 to 590k in Nov 2023. EXISTING Home Sales increased marginally from 3.79m in Oct 2023 to 3.82m in Nov 2023. Is this a turning point?
Obviously a combination of factors are at work here and its not just existing supply coming to the market that might be disrupting new home sales or vice versa but its interesting seeing this correlation and its something to keep an eye on for investors and policy makers. Sale of brand new homes creates a lot of economic activity and if sales are declining significantly whilst existing homes are starting to come back onto the market, one would presume it would stress the housing market and the economy. We may need reduced interest rates sooner rather than later to help fan the flames of the new housing market, or maybe its time the market takes a breather? What do you think? It certainly adds to the argument for lower rates sooner from the Federal Reserve to "soften the landing" or that divergence noted today.
On Macro Monday 21 we covered the NAHB Housing Market Index and its close correlation to U.S Housing Starts. If you enjoyed this read today, you should take a look at that. They are two useful additions that give another view. I'll throw the link in the comments.
Thanks for coming along again 🤓 if you enjoyed this or found it informative please let me know
PUKA
Federal Home Loan Bank is Draining Off LiquidityThe chart below is comparison between Schiller Housing Index (barchart) vs Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) balance sheet (linechart). In case you don't know what is FHLB - it's a second to last resort of lender that provides liquidity to US home loan after the FED. Quite recently FHLB is reducing their balance sheet from 1T to around 800B to take out liqudity from housing system. If these trends continue it will make it difficults for the bank to provide mortgage to the homeowners, which in turns will bring a cooling measure to housing price.
In 2008 when the US housing crash happen, FHLB increase their balance sheet to provide support for housing market from crashing too fast. Which cause the housing market to cool down substantially. However, in 2020 during pandemic, FHLB is reducing their balance sheet in line with the reduction of housing supply, so the housing price remains goes up until 2023. However, in the end of 2023 FHLB starts to reduce their balance sheet to break-stop the housing price from overshooting. Which they quickly realized it's a big mistake because it triggers several banking collapse such as SVB, First Republic, Signature Bank, etc.
So they reverse it to quantitative easing called BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program) to provide 1 years liquidity to prevent contagions of local banking collapsed until mid of 2024. Which at the same time there will be increase supply of housing in the next couple years that will definitely cool down or even bring down the housing price from mid 2024 onward. So I believe housing price will start to continue downward direction from mid 2024 until probably 2027 at least when the corporate debt wall are deteriorating causing several mass layoffs in the next couple of years.
US Housing flashing a warning Lower Low in price First time since the doldrums in 2011
The cost of a 30 year mortgage is astronomical
Mortgage demand has frozen ...
Refinancing has also fallen off a cliff
I'm looking for sellers to start capitulating soon ... (as in within the next few quarters)
As we start to see the consumer at breaking point.
Macro Monday 3 - SPDR Homebuilders XHBMacro Monday
SPDR Home builders ETF (XHB)
This equal weighted index tracks 35 holdings of the homebuilders segment of the S&P Total Market Index (TMI) and is spread across large, mid and small cap stocks.
These comprise of the Homebuilding sub-industry, and may include exposure to the Building Products, Home Furnishings, Home Improvement Retail, Home furnishing Retail, and Household Appliances sub-industries.
The Chart - AMEX:XHB
The Chart can be used as a leading indicator for the US housing market as the stocks in the XHB comprise of companies that provide the materials and products to build new houses and renovate homes. These products are higher up the supply chain and sold before construction commences or during.
In the past the XHB chart provided a significant advance warning of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis which is illustrated in red on the chart. A similar negative divergence would be worth watching out for in the future.
At present the performance of XHB is ahead of the S&P500. XHB is 5% from ATH’s at $87.00. This is in keeping with how this chart leads the market as it includes products and materials required for new builds and renovations. I would expect some resistance at the ATH which could act as a decision point for price. A break above the ATH with support established on it would be positive for price. A rejection off the ATH or a false break out and we would need to monitor price closely to see can price find support on the 10 Month SMA. If a lower high occurs on XHB (like in 2007), this could be an early warning signal of downward price pressure to follow on the S&P500.
As noted on the chart the average performance post MACD cross is a price increase of 80%;
- We are currently at $83.50 which is a price increase
of 21% from the recent MACD cross.
- A revisit of the ATH at $87.00 would be a price
increase of 26% from the recent MACD cross.
- An 80% average increase would lead us to the top
of the parallel channel (see chart).
- None of the above percentages are guarantees, we
are just looking at probabilities.
Factoring in that we are above the 10 month moving average and that it is sloping upwards, I remain positive about the continued performance of XHB, although I would not be surprised to see resistance at the ATH of $87.00 and a pull back to the 10 month SMA would be standard. If a weekly candle closed below the 10 month SMA, this is where I would start to get concerned and would then start to lean bearish. If we got follow through lower after that point, this would be alarm bells for me.
We can draw a correlation here to the first Macro Monday chart I shared on July 3rd, the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT which also established a lower high as the S&P500 CBOE:SPX continued its ascent. Both the XHB and the DJT demonstrated they can be leading economic indicators by establishing lower highs prior to the 2007 Great Financial Crisis.
PUKA
The USD, China and the De-dollarization challengeThe US dollar has maintained its status as the world's dominant reserve currency for decades, thanks to its perceived security, resilience, and the depth and liquidity of US markets. Despite concerns surrounding the dollar's hegemony, it remains a crucial player in global transactions. Meanwhile, China's economy faces challenges, such as growing provincial government debt, an expanding real estate bubble, and potentially inflated GDP numbers. In addition, China's need for US dollars and the push for de-dollarization by countries like Russia, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have gained attention. This analysis will explore these issues in depth and examine why moving away from the US dollar system is complex.
China's increasing debt, falling real estate prices, and the growth of its banking assets to around 55% of Global GDP are all causes for concern. The country's M2 money supply has grown at a 9% yearly rate, reaching HKEX:40 trillion, more than double its GDP. If China's GDP numbers are indeed inflated, as suggested by the Brookings Institution, this could exacerbate the problem. Moreover, the yuan (RMB) faces significant challenges in becoming a globally accepted reserve currency, primarily due to China's capital controls, illiquid markets, and authoritarian governance.
In contrast, the US dollar remains dominant in global central bank reserves and transactions. This is partly due to the dollar's resilience and the perception of the US's security and stability. Although reserves have shifted for countries with closer trade relations with China, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Chile, the US dollar remains the world standard for now.
The push for de-dollarization has gained momentum recently, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions against Russia. Countries like Russia, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia seek to move away from the US dollar system to reduce their dependency on the US economy and gain more control over their financial systems. However, moving away from the US dollar system is challenging for several reasons.
First, the US dollar's dominance in global markets ensures its continued importance in international trade. Even if countries like China and Russia attempt to shift away from the dollar, many other countries will likely continue to rely on it for their transactions, as it provides stability and liquidity.
Second, while the yuan is gaining prominence as a reserve currency, it still faces significant hurdles in becoming a globally accepted alternative to the US dollar. China's capital controls, illiquid markets, and authoritarian governance make it difficult for other countries to trust the yuan as a reliable reserve currency. As a result, it is unlikely to replace the US dollar on a large scale in the foreseeable future.
Third, OPEC members continue to price their oil in US dollars, despite the currency's decline relative to other world currencies. Economic, technical, and political factors prevent them from switching to other currencies or a basket of currencies. The benefits of such a switch are limited, and it would not benefit all OPEC members equally. Furthermore, the US will unlikely allow OPEC to disregard the dollar without consequences.
Finally, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are reportedly considering creating a new currency to facilitate trade and promote de-dollarization. However, this plan faces several obstacles, such as political disagreements among the BRICS countries and convincing other nations to adopt this new currency. Additionally, the benefits of a new BRICS currency are uncertain, and it may not be enough to destabilize the US dollar's dominance in global markets.
In conclusion, while there are signs of a shift in the balance of global reserve currencies, it is premature.
interest rates and housing Australia.ECONOMICS:AUMR
A visualization of how house prices react against interest rates rises other than the obvious divergence where rates get cheap and people will spend more.
I haven't made any predictions, there are a lot of moving parts in the system at the moment.
CPI being a big one on everyone lips, affordability, availability, sustainability, buzz words right ha
A lot of people got money really cheap and after the 5 year fixed terms what is the flow on effect, have people stopped excessive spending and in turn the is a down turn in GDP jobs but CPI still climbs.
Will tenants pay for all the rate hikes if the houses are not worth it? will people try and interest only? left with the prospect of selling will prices go too low while we are still in need of more houses to curb demand?
ordinary interest increases appeared to be up to 60% over time and we are looking at a event where we are already 3x that.
I used info from another chart to have more complete data for the interest, I should have done the house prices too. ( If someone knows how to import stuff like this speak up, that was a ball ache)
Surprised tradingviews data was not complete.
datawrapper.dwcdn.net
Have your say. feed back is welcome.
Might do updates if i"m feeling inspired.
US Average Home Price (Census Bureau and NAR Data)Looking at two measures of average home price, I've attempted to show one metric for predicting home value increases or decreases, at an average level. I've marked out some major market events. COVID had inflated home values to an unsustainably high level and the market is already correcting for it.
Zestimate for Zillow 🏡I can't help but wonder if the software company-turned-covid-smash-hit, is maybe somehow exposed to the "banking crisis". Commodities also continue to show weakness. So if housing is a commodity... well who knows...?
Anyway, the fed is set to make their "decision" on rates in a couple of days. On that note, I understand the temptation to lean into the idea that an interest rate cut might be bullish for housing (and markets overall), and maybe even $Z, but I would urge you to consider:
1. The market sets the rate and the fed follows. This can be shown in any overlay of the fed funds rate and the 10Y.
2. If rates continue to fall, that is probably not a good sign for the economy.
As of right now:
Rates remain suppressed from their October highs
Commodities continue to sell off from their Summer 2022 highs
Banks imploding
Oil on the verge of another collapse
So for now, I am thinking this one will continue to grind lower.
God Bless!
Equities Set To Outperform Rickety Real EstateInvestment wisdom states that “the only bad time to buy real estate is later.” Every rule though, has its exceptions. Current US real estate is clearly in exception territory given recessionary fears, high mortgage rates, and dim fundamentals.
Real estate sector is the largest store of wealth. It is also the source of significant job creation. Crisis in this sector has massive adverse consequences. Hence, policy makers typically leave no stone unturned in defending the sector. Despite the headwinds, new data released last week show rising mortgage applications on softening rates and real estate prices. This collectively makes an outright short position perilous.
Instead, this case study argues that a measured approach would be a spread with a long position in S&P 500 Index combined with a short position in S&P Real Estate Select Sector index.
An entry at 20.611 with a target at 22.119 supported by a stop loss at 19.749 will deliver a compelling 1.75 reward to risk ratio with ample upside and limited downside.
INTEREST RATES INVERSELY AFFECT ASSET VALUES
The value of a financial asset is the cumulative discounted value of all future cash flows. Higher the discounting rate, lower the value. Persistent and sticky inflation is compelling the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer.
High mortgage rates are forcing out first time buyers while squeezing leveraged asset owners. Future rents discounted to present value is sharply lower relative to a period when federal funds rate was near zero.
With the US Federal Reserve having hiked interest rates by 4.5% in 2022, mortgage rates have doubled in the same period, touching a 20-year high of 6.2%. This has made real estate investments less attractive. With no rate reversals in sight, mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated despite recent softening. Mortgage rates are down a full percentage point from recent peak but still double what they were a year ago.
Absent a sector specific relief, real estate stocks will underperform relative to the broader S&P 500 index. Since 2017, this ratio of the S&P 500 index to the Real Estate Select Sector has risen by a stunning 54% over the last 6 years.
WEAKENING US HOUSING MARKET
After peaking in July 2020, new home sales in the US have trended 37% lower and down to pre-pandemic levels. Existing home sales exhibit similar trend, which have fallen for eleven (11) straight months, point to a frail US housing market.
New data released last week point to rise in mortgage demand as rates soften and real estate prices ease.
DISTRESSED DEBT IN REAL ESTATE & RISING REDEMPTIONS FROM PROPERTY FUNDS
Global property market faces $175 billion of distressed debt. As rates rise, rising financing costs will force leveraged owners to foreclose at fire sale prices.
Abrupt stop to years of easy money supply has sent shock waves to the sector. Compounded by a pandemic that has changed the way people work and live, commercial real estate owners are in a precarious place. This predicament is showing up in property funds facing rising redemptions.
US-based investment manager - KKR - has imposed limits on redemption from its $1.5 billion KKR Real Estate Select Trust fund (KREST). KKR's cap on redemption echoes a move by Blackstone which announced in December that it would limit investor withdrawals from its $69 billion private real estate fund (BREIT). Starwood Capital also placed caps on redemptions late last year.
Investors are hankering for redemption as fears of price correction stemming from high mortgage costs, persistent inflation and an uncertain economy amplified by recessionary gloom.
GLOOMY REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
The sector is pessimistic about current and future home sales as evident from NAHB’s Housing Market Index. Over the past six months, new building permits have collapsed drastically as participants see lower demand for new homes.
Vindicating these fears are a sharp drop in new building permits which are down 30%. Home order cancellations are also on the rise sharply.
With all the impact combined, a rise in unsold inventory hit the markets, with marginal & first time home-buyers priced out of the market due to expensive mortgage rates.
The US Federal Reserve is determined to tame inflation down to 2% even at the expense of hurting labor market. Should that occur, a soft labor market reduces appetite for expensive mortgage payments. That would set a real estate contagion in motion, pushing property prices even lower.
TECHNICALS POINT TO BOUYANT S&P 500 AND SHAKY REAL ESTATE SELECT SECTOR
Since bottoming in November 2022, the S&P 500 Index has rallied 11% as it faces resistance at its long term (200-day) moving average. The S&P 500 Index is trading below its point of control.
In contrast, the S&P 500 Real Estate Select Sector index points being overbought based on RSI and is yet to reach its long-term moving average. The index is trading above its point of control making it wobbly and prone to downward correction.
TRADE SETUP
Spread trade requires that the notional value of a long leg is equivalent to the short leg of the trade.
Therefore, five (5) lots of long position in CME E-Mini Micro S&P 500 Futures expiring in March 2023 requires two (2) lots of short position in CME E-Mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures in March 2023. CME offers margin credits for spread trades. Clearing brokers might charge differently from the Exchange imposed margins.
CME E-Mini Micro S&P 500 Futures (5 lots): 5 x USD 5 x S&P 500 Index = 5 x 5 x 4015.25 = ~$100,381
CME E-Mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures (2 lots): 2 x USD 250 x S&P 500 Real Estate Select Sector Index = 2 x 250 x 194.65 = ~$97,325
Entry: 20.611
Target: 22.119
Stop Loss: 19.749
Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.75
Profit at Target: ~$7,350
Loss at Stop Loss: ~$4,200
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
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median home price to median family incomefollowing chart depicts the median home price to median family income using the FRED database. Current house price to income is at historical highs not seen since the end of WW2. The current housing market is one of the most unaffordable markets for the median house hold for the last 70 years.