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Housing

Is the housing market under stress?This chart shows AMEX:XHB the Homebuilders ETF vs ECONOMICS:USCSHPIYY the Case Shiller House Price Index YoY... What do you notice? Well, one data set is lagged by the other. Housebuilders are far more sensitive and closer to the macroeconomic realities and housing supply and demand than the general population on aggregate (because it's their business to be, obviously). Currently, the Housebuilders ETF is down, whilst house prices remain slightly elevated, albeit with cracks appearing as interest rates have risen, leading to mortgage rates to also increase. You can make some parallels with Dow Theory here... 'The Dow theory is a financial theory that says the market is in an upward trend if one of its averages (i.e. industrials or transportation) advances above a previous important high and is accompanied or followed by a similar advance in the other average.' Material costs are through the roof, and with headline inflation at multi decade highs, it's likely demand in the economy will subside as well. See, housebuilders only build when they predict the market will sustain an upward trajectory, and one could argue with XHB ticking lower, there is fear this upward trajectory has ended. Today we saw durable goods orders decline 2.1%, pointing to a consumer struggling with making bigger purchases amidst this inflationary backdrop. What might this spell for house prices further down the line as the Fed decreases its holdings of mortgage backed securities, de-liquifying this part of the market? Well, it's likely we'll face repercussions in credit as spreads widen and the wealth effect dissipates. As I've mentioned in a previous idea ( ), this is a more key factor as credit spreads are really the elements which show which way we're headed. I think it's time to argue that housing is facing some serious downside potential.
ECONOMICS:USCSHPIYY
by FinkPro
The Housing Market is About to Pop. How Does This Affect Crypto?The US Census Bureau recently published population numbers for cities across the US, and the numbers don't look too good: most large urban centers in the country have taken significant population losses in 2020-2021. Politicians and media pundits typically blame COVID and supply chain woes, though these trends were already happening even before the pandemic - the lockdown only accelerated what was already there. Los Angeles lost around 1% of its total population - which is already significant - but San Francisco and New York lost a staggering 6.7% and 6.9%, respectively. Most US urban centers have been struggling with a housing shortage crisis in the last few decades as housing costs, rents, and costs of living have been outpacing both inflation and wage growth exponentially since the financial crisis "recovery" in 2008. (This was around the time Bitcoin was invented, coincidentally.) In addition to rising crime, homelessness, and loss of quality of life, the well-paying jobs are also leaving the state citing high taxes and unfavorable business policies - giving people less reason to be there as well. The housing market is no different than other markets in that it operates on supply and demand . Housing advocates typically propose building more housing units (increase the supply) to bring costs down, but most cities have opted for the other "solution" - which is to bring costs down by decreasing the desirability of the city itself. (It's an unfortunate series of events, but it is what it is.) Nominal vs real pricing charts of US housing shows that listed prices are vastly inflated compared to its "real" value, which is contributing both to the bubble and the loss of quality in housing construction itself. San Francisco's Case-Shiller Index was chosen since it's objectively the most housing-inflated area right now, objectively speaking. The housing bubble is most likely to pop there, then cascade downwards onto other markets as people's faith in its growth starts to stagger. The reasons above (combined with the Fed's interest rate hikes this year) are why even Wall Street and big companies have taken an interest in crypto, NFTs, and metaverse assets lately, since they see it as a hedge against a weakened dollar and a recession (potentially a depression) looming in the horizon. At this point it's not a matter of "if", but "when". For crypto/metaverse investors, the thing to keep an eye on is the level of trust that the general public has in the banking system right now. When the housing bubble pops, it could potentially lead to a liquidity event of a magnitude never before seen, since technically there would be a lot cash sitting in people's hands, looking for places to invest. - The pessimistic outcome for crypto investors is the "money running scared" scenario - where panicked money runs back to the banks and other "conservative" investments assets (bonds, cash) that are seen to have less volatility overall. This may lead people to cash out and leave the crypto ecosystem altogether, causing a downturn in the asset class overall. Keep in mind, though, that housing, cash, and bonds have *traditionally* been seen as "reliable" investment choices, but in recent years those are the exact assets that have been inflating - which has lead many experts to question if they are functioning in the way it was originally intended overall. If that perception becomes shattered, a lot could change overnight. - The optimistic outcome for crypto investors is if the money that was intended for buying housing or other related assets becomes "free", potentially going into alternative assets, which includes crypto. Since a major housing bubble at this scale hasn't happened here there's not much data to show one way or another but we do know that the Evergrande crisis in China has had basically no (arguably inverse) effects on the crypto market as a whole. Panicked money may flow into crypto in ways never before if it's seen as a safe-haven against the turbulence of the housing market and the USD as a whole. Realistically, there will probably be a little bit of both going on, but being that the size of the US housing market is much bigger than the size of the crypto market cap, crypto needs much less of a % of money flowing inwards in order for it to grow. The housing market, on the other hand, has nowhere to go but down. Time will tell, but it would be advisable for people to be prudent about where to put their money this year, because a lot could happen very quickly as the United States faces its biggest financial crisis in decades in the near future.
FRED:SFXRSALong
by RyanTanaka
The Housing Market is About to Pop. How Does This Affect Crypto?The US Census Bureau recently published population numbers for cities across the US, and the numbers don't look too good: most large urban centers in the country have taken significant population losses in 2020-2021. Politicians and media pundits typically blame COVID and supply chain woes, though these trends were already happening even before the pandemic - the lockdown only accelerated what was already there. Los Angeles lost around 1% of its total population - which is already significant - but San Francisco and New York lost a staggering 6.7% and 6.9%, respectively. Most US urban centers have been struggling with a housing shortage crisis in the last few decades as housing costs, rents, and costs of living have been outpacing both inflation and wage growth exponentially since the financial crisis "recovery" in 2008. (This was around the time Bitcoin was invented, coincidentally.) In addition to rising crime, homelessness, and loss of quality of life, the well-paying jobs are also leaving the state citing high taxes and unfavorable business policies - giving people less reason to be there as well. The housing market is no different than other markets in that it operates on supply and demand. Housing advocates typically propose building more housing units (increase the supply) to bring costs down, but most cities have opted for the other "solution" - which is to bring costs down by decreasing the desirability of the city itself. (It's an unfortunate series of events, but it is what it is.) Nominal vs real pricing charts of US housing shows that listed prices are vastly inflated compared to its "real" value, which is contributing both to the bubble and the loss of quality in housing construction itself. San Francisco's Case-Shiller Index was chosen since it's objectively the most housing-inflated area right now, objectively speaking. The housing bubble is most likely to pop there, then cascade downwards onto other markets as people's faith in its growth starts to stagger. The reasons above (combined with the Fed's interest rate hikes this year) are why even Wall Street and big companies have taken an interest in crypto, NFTs, and metaverse assets lately, since they see it as a hedge against a weakened dollar and a recession (potentially a depression) looming in the horizon. At this point it's not a matter of "if", but "when". For crypto/metaverse investors, the thing to keep an eye on is the level of trust that the general public has in the banking system right now. When the housing bubble pops, it could potentially lead to a liquidity event of a magnitude never before seen, since technically there would be a lot cash sitting in people's hands, looking for places to invest. - The pessimistic outcome for crypto investors is the "money running scared" scenario - where panicked money runs back to the banks and other "conservative" investments assets (bonds, cash) that are seen to have less volatility overall. This may lead people to cash out and leave the crypto ecosystem altogether, causing a downturn in the asset class overall. Keep in mind, though, that housing, cash, and bonds have *traditionally* been seen as "reliable" investment choices, but in recent years those are the exact assets that have been inflating - which has lead many experts to question if they are functioning in the way it was originally intended overall. If that perception becomes shattered, a lot could change overnight. - The optimistic outcome for crypto investors is if the money that was intended for buying housing or other related assets becomes "free", potentially going into alternative assets, which includes crypto. Since a major housing bubble at this scale hasn't happened here there's not much data to show one way or another but we do know that the Evergrande crisis in China has had basically no (arguably inverse) effects on the crypto market as a whole. Panicked money may flow into crypto in ways never before if it's seen as a safe-haven against the turbulence of the housing market and the USD as a whole. Realistically, there will probably be a little bit of both going on, but being that the size of the US housing market is much bigger than the size of the crypto market cap, crypto needs much less of a % of money flowing inwards in order for it to grow. The housing market, on the other hand, has nowhere to go but down. Time will tell, but it would be advisable for people to be prudent about where to put their money this year, because a lot could happen very quickly as the United States faces its biggest financial crisis in decades in the near future.
FRED:SFXRSALong
by RyanTanaka
$WMS - OVERSOLD BEFORE EARNINGSWith remote work on the increase, people are upgrading their home furniture and living conditions more than ever before. A company like Williams-Sonoma will feel the benefit of this changing trend in living styles. Increased demand should allow furniture retailers to counter-act rising material costs by raising prices. Adding to this point, the housing market has remained strong. People need to buy furniture more than ever. WMS earnings are released Wednesday, March 16th after the bell. Quote from Pragya Pandey's Stock News article below: "WSM is an omnichannel specialty retailer of multiple products for the home. It also supplies cooking, dining, and entertaining products such as cookware, tools, electrics, cutlery, tabletop and bar, outdoor furniture, and a library of cookbooks under the Williams Sonoma brand, along with home furnishings and decorative accessories under the Williams Sonoma Home brand; and furniture, bedding, lighting, rugs, table essentials, and decorative accessories under the Pottery Barn brand. Last month, Pottery Barn Kids and Pottery Barn Teen, members of WSM, announced new collections with the famous resort wear brand Lilly Pulitzer. The ‘Lilly Pulitzer x Pottery Barn Kids’ and ‘Lilly Pulitzer x Pottery Barn Teen’ collections launched new product categories to the partnership, including décor, textiles, sleepwear, backpacks, and water bottles in Lilly Pulitzer’s signature prints. Jennifer Kellor, President, Pottery Barn Kids, and Pottery Barn Teen, stated that “Our collaboration with Lilly Pulitzer is the result of coming together as brands who value incredible design with exceptional quality,” Also, in January, WSM announced its collaboration with Black Artists + Designers Guild (BADG), a global organization committed to developing a more equitable and overall creative culture through the improvement of independent Black makers. The new collaboration between Pottery and Barn and BADG comprises products designed for entertaining, hosting, and gathering."
NYSE:WSMLong
by jaykenneyTRT
The Great Economic/ Financial Collapse: Housing (3/6)ever since 2008 we have seen home prices rise. is this good or bad? i will tell you my opinion on housing and how it could crash. right now we are seeing record home prices we have never seen. why is this? supply and demand. we have seen demand for homes reach record levels but little supply.... this causes prices to increase and price to build a home more expensive. although market is booming right now i do think this should be a warning sign. the only thing keeping the housing market alive is low interest rates and supply and demand. right now interest rates are nearly at 0% but the fed does plan on raising them in march. raising interest rates will slow down the growth of the economy which could slow down demand for homes since it will be harder for people to borrow money. i do believe home prices will continue to clime for a few more months before they end up crashing. i still see prices going up 17% before they crash. another thing we can look at is lumber. we need lumber to build homes and recently we say the price of lumber dump after a huge pump. this could be a warning since you can see lumber tops off people home prices drop. if you can see the chart you will see lumber topped off a few years before homes did which led to a housing crash. right now we have seen lumber prices top off but i dont think home prices have topped out just yet. i think once the economy slows down and other markets start crashing the housing will crash too. i dont think housing will crash just yet i think it will be one of the last markets to crash in this economic collapse. another reason why i think housing will crash is the horrible wages in America. the average american wage is 51k a year and the median is 34k. with horrible wages in america and rising home prices it makes it harder and more expensive for the average american to buy a house. buying a home with these wages can lead to large amounts of debt as you can see here: fingfx.thomsonreuters.com household debt to GDP is below previous high but the total household debt is past 2008 levels. right now housing isn't looking bearish but i do think that will change in the upcoming years if the economic collapse does happen. foreclosure and bankrupts are at a record low but i do think they will spike once other markets start coming down. fingfx.thomsonreuters.com i do think if markets crash it will cause a spike in unemployment which will lead to foreclosures and bankruptcies . also with inflation on the rise and possible increase in inflation it will drop the demand for homes. i think we are in a debt bubble as well. we have seen student debt, national debt, personal debt all reach record numbers. this will lead to market crashes since it will be harder for people to borrow money with rising interest rates. and if they can't pay off debts they will be forced to file bankruptcy which cold lead to foreclosures. if home prices do end up dropping severely that will also create more debt for home owners/sellers. if prices drop below the price they bought at they will be selling for a loss which could lead to debt.
FRED:CSUSHPINSA
by r2d22010
1
Japanese yen rises on Ukraine fearsThe Japanese yen has moved higher on Thursday, as tensions are once again rising over the Ukraine crisis. Invasions fears have ratcheted upwards after NATO warned that Russia could use a border skirmish as a pretext for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The US has rejected Moscow's claim that it is reducing its military presence on the border and Russia expelled a senior US diplomat from Moscow earlier in the day. There were hopes that the crisis was easing, but the latest moves indicate that it is far from over. With the rising tensions, risk sentiment has fallen and the safe-haven Japanese yen has posted strong gains against the US dollar and the euro. After a stellar retail sales report on Wednesday, today's US data has been softer than expected, which has also weighed on USD/JPY. Unemployment claims rose to 248 thousand, a three-week high, while housing starts and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index slowed in January and fell short of their estimates. There are no US economic releases on Friday, but we will hear from three FOMC members, which may provide some insight on the Fed's plans after the March rate lift-off. The FOMC minutes was a sleeper for the markets, as the release ended up more of a reminder that big things are coming from the Fed, which we all know. Officials discussed the need to raise rates, strongly hinting that lift-off will take place in March. As well, the Fed plans a significant reduction in the balance sheet, which has ballooned to nine trillion dollars as a result of aggressive bond-buying in an effort to stimulate growth during the Covid pandemic. The Fed will end its QE programme in March as scheduled, although some members at the Fed meeting wanted to wind up the program earlier. 114.79 is under strong pressure in support. Below, there is support at 114.15 There is resistance at 116.21 and 116.99 A major Fibo level is close by at 114.90 (50% of the 113.47-16.34 climb)
by OANDA
The start of a long train of woes for housingThis one will be super simple, not much to be stated here. With big corp and foreign investments going into housing not just in the states but globally, we are seeing some really crazy stuff in housing. This chart looks at new one family houses sold vs new housing permits and privately owned housing units total. In my honest opinion housing is, like everything, in a bubble and worse off it's reflecting the fomo that was in the markets prior to the downturn. Sadly I dont see an end to this housing insanity, not until a new economy rears it's head. This is only adding to the bond issues.
FRED:HSN1F
by Joshuakm
What is lumber telling us about the economy?The lumber price was nothing short of wild in 2021. After rising to a new all-time high at $1711.20 in May, the price plunged, reaching a bottom at $488 per 1,000 board feet in August. Lumber fell to under one-third the price at the high in three months. Rates are heading higher Lumber has been rallying A spring scramble for new homes Infrastructure rebuilding requires more wood Lumber says inflation will continue unless the Fed gets serious The lumber futures arena is illiquid. On most days, fewer than 500 contracts change hands. The total number of open long and short positions at 2,458 contracts at the end of last week reflects the low market participation level. Crude oil’s open interest was over 2.01 million contracts, and gold’s stood at over 531,000 contracts. The lack of liquidity makes lumber untradeable for speculators and investors. Hedgers experience problematic margin calls because of the high volatility. Illiquid markets like lumber tend to experience far more price variance than liquid markets as bids evaporate during selloffs and offers to sell disappear during rallies. The low volume and open interest level exacerbate price moves, creating highs and lows that defy logic, reason, and rational fundamental analysis. I do not trade lumber as the futures arena is a roach motel. Getting into the wrong position is easy; a risk position in the correct direction can be problematic. When wrong, getting out is often impossible as limit moves are the norm, not the exception. While I do not participate, I am a keener observer of the price action in lumber as it is an industrial raw material that provides clues about the path of least resistance of other industrial commodities and the overall economic landscape. Rates are heading higher Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose by 7% in 2021. Excluding food and energy, inflation rose 5.5% in 2021, which was far above the Fed’s 2% average target rate. Measuring inflation by excluding food and energy may suit economists because prices can be highly volatile, but it is a mirage for the average consumer as food and energy make up significant percentages of household budgets. Meanwhile, the producer price index of wholesale prices rose by nearly 10% in 2021. The latest inflation reports only increase the chances of the end of quantitative easing and liftoff from a zero percent Fed Funds rate in March 2022. The Fed will likely begin to reduce its swollen balance sheet simultaneously which will tighten credit further out along the yield curve as bonds roll off and are not replaced. The central bank is not likely to miss a step as it shifts from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening. The latest CPI data validates that the US Federal Reserve is far behind the inflationary curve. Tightening credit via higher interest rates has become a certainty in early 2022. Lumber has been rallying Lumber may be one of the most illiquid futures markets, but it is a bellwether industrial commodity. After a highly volatile 2021, the lumber price moved back into bullish mode after reaching a bottom in August 2021. The monthly chart (featured above) highlights that nearby lumber futures settled at $873.10 per 1,000 board feet at the end of 2020. Lumber was already trading at an elevated price. Before 2017, the all-time high was in 1993 at $493.50 per 1,000 board feet. While many commodities tend to rise and fall to illogical, irrational, and unreasonable prices that defy fundamental and technical analysis when they move, less liquid markets tend to experience magnified price volatility. During significant price moves, bids or offers in less than liquid markets can evaporate, causing price gaps and moves to levels that market participants never believed possible. Lumber futures rose to a high of $1711.20 per 1,000 board feet, an all-time high, in May 2021 where they ran out of upside steam. They proceeded to plunge to less than one-third of that price over three months, reaching a low of $488 in August 2021. Lumber reached unsustainable prices on the up and downside. At the end of last week, it was elevator up again for lumber with the price above the $1300 per 1,000 board feet level. March lumber futures settled at $1308.70 on Friday, January 14. The total open interest of 2,458 contracts and daily trading volume below 500 contracts make lumber untradeable, but it is a critical market to watch as it provides clues about other raw material prices and the economy’s overall state. A spring scramble for new homes Lumber’s latest ascent is likely because of a scramble to buy new homes before interest rates move appreciably higher. Wood is a critical construction component. The Fed’s plans to increase short-term rates and tighten credit will not happen overnight; it will be a slow and steady process that will take years. Three factors support the increasing demand for new homes in 2022: Rising interest rates will push mortgage rates higher over the coming years. New home buyers are under pressure to lock in interest rate risks at historically low levels as 30-Year conventional mortgage rates remain below the 4% level. The migration from cities and high-tax states supports new home building in low-tax states like Florida, Texas, Tennessee, and Nevada. In those states, home buyers are waiting up to one year or more for new home deliveries as builders cannot keep up with the demand. The incredible gains in real estate prices since early 2020 have caused a frenzy of buying where homes are selling above initial offer prices and have been rising each week. Few things entice buyers like a bull market trend. Framing lumber is at the heart of the construction business and is pushing wood’s price higher in January 2022. Rising interest rates mean that procrastinating buyers are likely to pull the trigger over the coming months. Infrastructure rebuilding requires more wood In 2021, the US passed an infrastructure rebuilding package to build and refresh roads, bridges, tunnels, airports, government buildings, schools, and many other parts of infrastructure over the coming years. Construction projects will require wood, increasing the demand. Meanwhile, Canadian supplies have struggled to keep pace with the US demand, putting upward pressure on prices. New COVID-19 variants only increase supply chain bottlenecks and mill issues for the lumber industry. Lumber says inflation will continue unless the Fed gets serious The trend in lumber remains bullish, with the price now above the 2021 midpoint at the $1,100 per 1,000 board feet level. We are coming into the peak season for construction projects in the spring, which means demand is likely to continue to increase over the coming months. Lumber’s price action has been head-spinning. The wood price is a barometer for the housing market and all industrial commodities. Over the past weeks, crude oil, copper, and other industrial raw material prices have been rising. WTI and Brent crude oil prices were back over the $83 per barrel level in early 2022, threatening to move to new multi-year highs above the early October 2021 peaks. Copper traded to the $4.60 per pound level last week, the highest price since October 2021 before correcting to the $4.40 level. Natural gas prices were back over $4.25 per MMBtu, after trading below $3.55 in late December. Lumber had led the way higher for many industrial commodities as the price eclipsed the $1000 level in early December when most industrial commodities were under selling pressure. Lumber is a bellwether and an indicator that provides clues about the industrial commodities sector, and it is also an economic barometer that tells us about the housing market. In mid-January 2022, the wood market is screaming that inflation remains the most significant financial challenge facing markets across all asset classes this year. The US central bank’s most recent forecast of a 0.90% Fed Funds rate in 2022 and 1.60% in 2023 is far short of what is necessary to stem inflation. Lumber’s price action screams that the Fed is far behind the inflationary curve. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
L
by Andy_Hecht
1
RE - Real Estate Double Top Before FOMCIdea for Real Estate: - Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct. - MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev: - Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal. - We will have more confirmation next week depending on Fed's decision to taper MBS purchases. I think the Fed will stick to their signaled schedule in hopes of avoiding any sort of a "tantrum". - Historically, RE and MBS's lead declines in equities. - We have seen both commodity prices, Building Permits and pending Home Sales come down, so a decline is natural: - Overseas property market declining is likely to have headwinds as well: GLHF - DPT
AMEX:XLREShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
Housing - A Shortage of Qualified RentersThe country is running out of affordable places for people to live. Private Property rights are being suspended. The share of people behind on mortgages, after falling steadily for months, recently hit its pre-pandemic level. Housing conditions over the past year make it clear that while one crisis is passing, another is growing increasingly worse. The pandemic has left millions of others struggling to make their housing payments, especially lower-income households and people of color. For the past year, lower-income tenants have relied heavily on government support to pay their monthly bills. 34% of renters used unemployment or stimulus payments to pay rent at some point during the pandemic — but the majority of renters still had to borrow or draw on savings to cover bills, leaving them less able to weather future emergencies, much less save for personal investments or a down payment for a home. safeguards have expired over the past few months, and the federal eviction moratorium issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in September will come to a decided closure at the end of the month. The president undertook an Executive Action that the Supreme Court has just determined is illegal. A U.S. appeals court ruled on Friday, July 23rd that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lacked authority for the national moratorium it imposed last year on most residential evictions to help curb the spread of the coronavirus. Several States have kicked the can down the road into September 3oth to October 31st. Prior rulings are being overturned State by State, Lawsuits are being filed daily as Realtors are feeling the squeeze as Independent Producers are facing large losses, unbale to recover back Rents past due. Extending these losses will compound the anger and outrage. The Rentier class isn't rolling over.
FRED:CPIHOSNSShort
by HK_L61
VIX - Into Roll / SettelementTipping the Boat ahead of CT Roll is stock in trade for the VX Complex Options Writers. Position Rolls across the Markets will have a profound effect this as we begin to square. CASH/SPOT VIX shows further complacency as Volumes dry up. RTY and NQ will lead to the downside as "Independent Producers" (SMALL Businesses) will continue to be croaked as they have been since March of 2020 for the RUT 2K. As for Tech, it is facing some large headwinds with respect to the current Rate Revolt and China's heavy hand. Warning Signs abound across the Spectrum, on balance, they are being roundly ignored by the Junior Investor/Trader. A FAT Finger trade is all but assured as Wall Street takes some Bacon off the table as Uncertainty will begin to shake belief structures. Financials theoretically should benefit from rate inking up, the ES and RTY would be positioned to benefit the most due to the large Financial Component structures... theoretically :) ES would likely catch the bid. The issue we have with this basis - Housing has reaches extremes as the Crisis in Real Estate is just beginning to unfold. Law suits are all but assured as the Administration has come under fire from small Independent Producers of Rentier Class profits... they are being squeezed and remain furious with a growing intensity. The Admin is clearly behaving in an Illegal manner in order tp maintain moratoriums on Rents. An Executive Order followed by the CDC's rubber stamp would only further the Crisis and lead to an increasing distrust of Lever Pullers.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
$Z HUGE upside*Before reading the information in this please understand the risks associated with both the stock market and investing as a whole. ALWAYS do your own research; invest with conviction, rather than emotion.* *Please understand I am in no way a professional and offering investment advice, all ideas shared are simply opinion.* *I work with a team of individuals that does research into potentially undervalued publicly traded companies. We use a mix of fundamental and trend analysis to formulate a trading plan for our securities.* I heard any interesting fact from a relative this past week; going forward, there will be no new-house listings under $300,000 in my city of Charlotte, NC. I did some research on that in my free time, and found that he was 100% correct. The housing market is oversaturated currently, both locally to me and nationally; there are more buyers than sellers. This oversaturation is causing any houses "worth buying" to be sucked off the market within a week of being listed; sometimes closing same-day! This paradox of houses closing sales so much quicker than average is a family may be able to sell their house within a week of listing, but unless said family has another residence lined up, they face the same trials and tribulations buyers currently face in the market; finding a good house before a sale is reached. This holds many families, including my own, from selling their house. Being a buyer in the housing market in its current state is nothing short of a headache. On the opposite end of the coin, Zillow ($Z) is doing more than helping consumers in the housing market find houses for sale, as well as apartments for rent. This information-technology company is actively buying property all over the United States, offering cash for consumers' houses. Zillow also has recently unveiled their own team of real estate agents, allowing Zillow to buy (and a lot of times flip) land and property and sell them directly to their customers through their real estate team, rather than agents reaching private agreements with landowners to sell. Zillow's operations are set up thrive in current real estate market conditions, they are making the home and property buying processes seamless for their customers. Zillow had total revenue of $1.22B in 2021 Q1, where industry average was $268M; their Q1 net income $51.96M compared to industry average $5.94M. Zillow appears to be “leaps and bounds” ahead of their competition. $Z saw an all-time high share price of $208, and currently sits at a price of $115.29. Zillow could have seen their struggles on the chart this year due to the metal and lumber price spike, as well as the buying conditions listed earlier. Construction supply prices are coming back to normal, and Zillow’s recent announcement of their team of real estate agents is set to help consumers on the buying side of the real estate market. These two factors could allow for Zillow to formulate a reversal. I like buying $Z at this price level a lot, the fact that it has hit a share price of $200 in 2021 shows the stock has potential to go back to that price level. I am hunting an entry this week there is active support at the $100 price point, and I am seeking a long-term entry in the $105-$110 range. Price points are as follows: ENTRY: $107.50 STOP LOSS: $100 TP1: $160 TP2: $200 There is 81% upside on this trade, and a 9 risk-reward ratio (!!!). This is a very high potential, low-risk trade that could potentially double in a medium-term holding. I like Zillow as a long-term hold, and think securing an entry after this dip from $200 has potential to reward an individual for the next few years. Be sure to follow me @bigshotrob for future updates and posts.
NASDAQ:ZLong
by tradebuckets
1