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Redfin Is Showing Relative StrengthHousing entered 2020 with strong fundamentals (lack of supply, demographics). Coronavirus magnified those trends by lowering interest rates and driving people from urban apartments. Online real-estate brokerage Redfin has emerged as one of the top-performing names in the space, more than doubling on a year to-date basis. (It’s also risen more than 400 percent from its March low.) This month’s volatility has dragged RDFN downward. It managed to hit a new all-time high above $55 on September 10, but then fell back into the mid-40s. Interestingly, RDFN made a higher low yesterday than on September 4. This stands in sharp contrast with the broader market, which made a lower low this week. The stock is also holding its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). There could be more volatility in the near term if the S&P 500 needs to stabilize further. However, RDFN is in a unique space. Momentum followers could return if yesterday’s higher low remains in effect. Note: This chart uses TradeStation’s custom script Smart Relative Strength . TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NASDAQ:RDFN
by TradeStation
REDFIN Bottomed out | Full Send Into Earnings $RDFN$RDFN shines as mainstream housing outlet; Redfin has outperformed the AMEX:SPY . Trust the TA ~ The stock currently sits above what has proven to be strong support @ $43.9 Watching the orange trend line as support as well, it holds strong on the weekly timeframe. Looking to bounce off this. Possible long on hold above @ $43.9 Upside targets: $48, $50, $52.69 Possible Short Entry: $42.3 Caution needed in this stock as we have a possible Double Top pattern forming. Follow levels accordingly DotcomJack | MJ of Stonks
NASDAQ:RDFNLong
by DotcomJack
Has Lennar Laid the Foundation for a Breakout?Homebuilders have emerged as one of the standout industries in the post-Covid world. Plenty of technology names, like Zoom Video Communications , benefited from lockdowns. But it’s also boosted housing in a few ways. First, surveys show millennials finally want to buy single-family suburban homes. Second, interest rates are low. Third, credit-card spending data has shown DIY chains like Home Depot and Lowe’s thriving as most traditional retailers struggle. Lennar is the No. 2 homebuilder by market cap (behind D.R. Horton ), and the most active in terms of average daily options volume. The company’s earnings and revenue both beat estimates last week. Perhaps more importantly, management had the confidence to reinstitute guidance. That prompted several analysts to raise their price targets. LEN is in an interesting place technically after rallying sharply between mid-March and mid-May. It’s been consolidating above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and today is trying to make a higher low along a trendline starting in early April. Meanwhile resistance has remained around $65.50, resulting in a bullish ascending triangle. LEN’s 50-day SMA is also moving up toward its 200-day SMA. That creates the potential for a “Golden Cross” within the next 10 sessions. It also had a bullish outside candle on the weekly chart (not shown) last week – a potential sign of “animal spirits in the house.” It’s usually a good idea to wait for breakouts, but the fundamental argument for homebuilders is strong. Traders may want to enter with last week’s low as risk management and consider adding on a breakout through resistance.
Editors' picks
NYSE:LENLong
by TradeStation
2
SHORT VNQ, GET OUT WHILE YOU CANI have been tracking this ETF for a long period of time. We just broke one-year resistance and clear evidence on the fib retracement (specifically level 0.5) shows that the price was weakening. Technicals aside, there is no reason as to why this should move upwards. This pandemic has taken out firms with high leverage, left more than 25 million Americans jobless, and monetary policy hasn't been as effective because people haven't been going out. Not only that, but the government will also now have to think twice about their spending, as our debt has dramatically increased this year accompanied by a significant drop in tax revenue. Consumers have less income and are looking towards their savings to live through this pandemic. As we move to reopen, firms will look to deleverage and cut spending. This means that unemployment will most certainly not go back to its previous levels anytime soon and the average American will be in no position to take in debt in the form of a mortgage. I'd even argue to some extent that many will look to sell their homes. So how does this relate to VNQ? Home prices haven't adjusted because a decrease in supply helped remedy the decrease in demand. If you analyze active listing for the months of April, you will see that in almost every market, there has been a significantly smaller number of homes being listed. Hence, there have been fewer homes being sold at the price pre-virus. These price levels were already thought to be reaching a bubble, but with this sudden change in demand, these prices will correct most certainly. As we look to reopen, people will look to sell their houses. Realtors will push people to sell their homes. This increase in supply accompanied by the withstanding lack of demand will drive housing prices all the way down. I expect we will see these prices fall in areas with typically less demand than others first. Looking at listings in suburban areas, we are already seeing sellers change listings and drop their price, with still no buyer. It is still early to get out as prices haven't adjusted and many cities haven't reopened. Now, residential real estate accounts for 14.53% of VNQ. The problem lies in commercial real estate, 40.48% of VNQ. As said before, firms will want to deleverage and cut spending. Not only that, but offices will be dead anytime soon as many companies will want to remain online for the next quarter or two. The only downside will have to do with hospitals and clinics, but as we flatten the curve, the need for hospitals will not be any larger than the need for them a month or two ago. Regarding specialized REITs, there are going to be numbers of people that will not be able to pay rent or will find the price of rent too high in comparison to their income. All in all, all we can see is red! Hopefully, this doesn't truly occur because many will be hurt by this crash, but it is hard not to warn against the inevitable.
AMEX:VNQShort
by FrancescoChiappe
SPX | Fear and HopesThere's a large amount of speculation whether or not the United States will enter into a deep depression; And there's some potential for it. Housing Starts for single family homes has decreased to levels seen in the 1980's, meaning there will be more families moving into multy-family homes; or apartments. Housing asking prices are dropping along with demand shown by multi-sector consumers. The inflation rate hasn't moved, which is good for now, though the interest rate isn't looking so good with the possibility of negative rates. I guess you can say the injection of trillions of dollars by the FED has mitigated the fall, but I'm not even sure this is the beginning. My assumption is that SPX will have a lot more selling pressure than displayed this past week. New highs were lost in two days and the close was lower than the previous candles' close. Personally, I'm longing SH until I can see some fundamental upside for this economy. I speculate a prices being near $1600 before we start to recover from this potential Global Recession.
TVC:SPXShort
by jordvnflows
New one family housing in US - Macro Chart & Analysis. Be very careful those who wants to buy houses, I would suggest stay liquid or park your capital somewhere you will not loose your purchasing power as we know Central Banks are printing Trillions of USD/Euros to bring back stability but at the cost of taxpayers money, they are printing more money indirectly stealing the purchasing power of people who saved their entire life. Wait for the right time i would suggest at least 6-12 months so the dust settles down.
FRED:HSN1F
by E2S100
1
USDJPY Beyond Technical Analysis: Hypothetical PlanI was focused a lot in yen performance throughout the starting day of the week when it posted out weak GDP after then some gloomy industrial reports I got hooked with the yen so far. Us had some report good some bad but till now it hadn't posted any top tier reports which could change the bullish sentiment flow of greenback but now I assume it's too much for this pair to reach this high level taking concern to its daily average true range which it is close enough and bulls are already tired to push this pair forward. Hypothetically talking in my opinion greenback took a lot of advantage from yen weakness throughout the start of the week. Knowing that the US most of the highlighted reports like inflation, some FOMC members speech, housing reports will be printed within some hours so who knows it can also be a "Pump and dump" scenario if the US has some gloomy outlook over those highlighted reports. All those earlier pumps can just end up being an overvalued price that traders priced in before knowing the actual outcome of reports from the US. They had bets on greenback being optimistic on it and at this point hypothetically talking the one who priced in may make a double target which I mean by closing the long position he/she had if the US news-bad release (profit taking) and then adding back another short position just to ride the possible new fresh downside which technically it's already an overbought as daily ATR has reached its limit 43pips. This is not a guaranteed investment I am taking some risk self on it just to play how this scenario works out and kept my risk very low. Those who are inspired by the plan and wish to follow the trade idea don't forget to manage position sizing properly to minimize any big unexpected risk.
Short
by jessi061
Next Week Is Busy for Home Depot and the Housing SectorBelieve it or not, housing is one of the strongest parts of the market in 2019 -- rivaling only semiconductors. Low interest rates and a lack of inventories are helping fuel the move. The next week is big for the industry, with NAHB's sentiment index, housing starts and existing-home sales all due. Home Depot also reports earnings on Tuesday, followed one day later by Lowe's . HD broke out to new record levels last August and has formed a tight basing pattern since. The stock has also held its 50-day simple moving average and its stochastics show a bounce potentially starting.
NYSE:HDLong
by TradeStation
CBA.ASX finally giving inFrom everything I’ve read over the years commonwealth bank has been a widow maker for many traders looking to short. I almost bought some $65 put options earlier this year which would have expired in October. Lucky me! Any way, looks like this may finally be it. To me it looks like a big tripple top has been out in here. With the real estate market in Australia easing up a little and commbank being so heavily exposed to the housing market any dip will ravage them. Keeping in mind we have a prime minister who has taken a page out of draghis book looking to do what ever it takes to keep the Aussie housing bubble blowing. Circled in green are our three tops. It’s also important to note the 200 weekly MA has just punched through the 20MA. There are also two lower lows as valley between our tops. A break below $70 will be the final bell.
ASX:CBAShort
by MadButcherWA
$FNMA/$FMCC Riding On Momentum From 2 Catalysts;Long Road AheadBoth Fannie Mae ( FNMA ) and Freddie Mac ( FMCC ) are rocking and rolling. Mnuchin's interview paired with the court of appeals' move against the Gov't have sparked more interest here. This is great and another potential catalyst today could add fuel to the fire. HOWEVER, is there a motion likely before the election? I think the jury is still out on that front. We've got the election year to think about as well. My guess is short term momentum and hopefully, it retraces back to a higher support than its previous resistance range. " So, are FMCC stock and FNMA stock penny stocks to buy or should you avoid them like the plague? In my opinion, there still needs to be some diligence had right now and don’t throw caution to the wind either...Should a Democrat beat the current incumbent, this whole “to do” may be scrapped entirely. Even though things are exciting now, make sure to keep tabs on the underlying risks and learn how to manage should those materialize...At the end of the day, if an overhaul does happen, Congress will lead negotiations. All these points mentioned would be up for discussion. Some of the more conservative ideas would most likely get taken out of the running. So, keep in mind that there are many unknowns, still. The fact of the matter is that these two penny stocks will remain under close scrutiny for the foreseeable future; this week being the next potential milestone to keep an eye on. " Source - The Best Penny Stocks To Buy This Month? FMCC & FNMA
OTC:FNMA
by PennyStocks101