Get started

Housingmarket

MACRO - Housing Double BottomModel Forecast for the Housing & Real Estate Market: Synopsis: Underlying Conditions: Federal Deficit: Debt needs to be paid. Household Debt Payments have bottomed. Household Debt Service Payments as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income (TDSP): Business Inventories will fall: Housing Starts are falling, and can fall much lower before recovery: Housing Sales have very little business rising and will certainly fall: Supply: The price of lumber is at a top and will certainly fall by EOY: The supply of labor will increase - Employment has downside before recovery: Capacity Utilization has some downside: Demand: As real estate investors who bought the bottom in 2020, who have have enjoyed several 100% unrealized gains decide the real estate bull market is over, they will clean up house and leave retail holding the bag on the now worthless assets. Of course, at this time, banks will be accumulating them at the bottom to prepare for the next bull market! Targets for REIT Campaign: EQR - High-Value Residential: BDN - Suburban Offices - WFH culture is here to stay, and the demand for office-space will greatly decrease: RYN - Timberland Real Estate & Lumber - Double exposure to both lumber and Real Estate: SLG - Manhattan Commercial - I expect financial disruption as well, and the high value real estate there will crumble like a house of cards: Watching: Warehousing - Due to pandemic shipping backlog, warehousing real estate should see a boom, but as 3D printing & AV shipping improve, they will become fantastic short targets, as they become obsolete! GLHF - DPT
AMEX:XLREShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
10
$FNMA/$FMCC Riding On Momentum From 2 Catalysts;Long Road AheadBoth Fannie Mae ( FNMA ) and Freddie Mac ( FMCC ) are rocking and rolling. Mnuchin's interview paired with the court of appeals' move against the Gov't have sparked more interest here. This is great and another potential catalyst today could add fuel to the fire. HOWEVER, is there a motion likely before the election? I think the jury is still out on that front. We've got the election year to think about as well. My guess is short term momentum and hopefully, it retraces back to a higher support than its previous resistance range. " So, are FMCC stock and FNMA stock penny stocks to buy or should you avoid them like the plague? In my opinion, there still needs to be some diligence had right now and don’t throw caution to the wind either...Should a Democrat beat the current incumbent, this whole “to do” may be scrapped entirely. Even though things are exciting now, make sure to keep tabs on the underlying risks and learn how to manage should those materialize...At the end of the day, if an overhaul does happen, Congress will lead negotiations. All these points mentioned would be up for discussion. Some of the more conservative ideas would most likely get taken out of the running. So, keep in mind that there are many unknowns, still. The fact of the matter is that these two penny stocks will remain under close scrutiny for the foreseeable future; this week being the next potential milestone to keep an eye on. " Source - The Best Penny Stocks To Buy This Month? FMCC & FNMA
OTC:FNMA
by PennyStocks101
Taylor Wimpey - More down likelySELL - TAYLOR WIMPEY (TW.) Taylor Wimpey plc is a residential developer. The Company operates at a local level from 24 regional businesses across the United Kingdom, and it has operations in Spain. Fundamentals Brexit uncertainties continue to undermine the performance of certain UK housebuilders. The ongoing political threat is sending shares in Taylor Wimpey lower. The latest set of results showed that first half operating profits were down 9.4%, which reflects higher build costs and tougher standards. House prices are stagnating, particularly in London and the South East where Taylor Wimpey are significantly exposed. Tougher times potentially remain ahead. Best Broker Target Price: 200p (Berenberg Bank 05/03/2019) Worst Broker Target Price: 140p (Peel Hunt 10/12/2018) Technical Analysis Taylor Wimpey has been unable to reach the heights it saw in the aftermath of the Brexit result in 2017 and since then has traded in a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The break of support seen this week at 153.8p suggest we are going to see a continuation lower in the short term. The immediate downside target is at the December 2018 lows of 128p, then below that we are targeting the Brexit vote lows of 110p. Recommendation: Sell between 140-160p Stop: 180p Target: 128p & 110p
LSE:TW.Short
by Investamate