$BTC - Little risky long scalping planThis is my kind of plan currently with $BTC. Still a risky trade, since the price has lots of resistance above and price hasn't, but bulls have several points in favour and price might set 57.5-58k as a good support. Small capital risk on this one.
Let's see what the market do.
How-to
How to Use Stop Loss Orders in Trading?Stop loss order is the order that automatically closes your trade once it reaches a specified price target. Learn all about it here.
Table of Contents:
🔹What Is a Stop Loss Order?
🔹Why Stop Loss Orders Matter?
🔹Setting Stop Loss Levels
🔹Types of Stop Loss Orders
🔹Adjusting Your Stop Loss Orders
🔹Summary
In trading, reducing risks is oftentimes all that matters to achieving success. One of the essential tools to protect your investments from steep or unexpected losses is the stop loss order. Understanding how to use stop loss orders can unlock your path to profitability by allowing you to balance your risk and reward ratio. In other words, with the right stop loss setup, you can shoot for asymmetrical risk returns by keeping your drawdown small and letting your profits run.
Let’s dive into the exciting world of trading and see how stop loss orders can be your greatest ally in trading.
📍 What Is a Stop Loss Order?
A stop loss order is an essential risk management tool used by traders to limit potential losses on a trade. By using a stop loss order, you instruct your broker to automatically sell the asset you’re holding when it reaches a predetermined price level that is below your purchase price, or entry.
A stop loss order allows you to control your losses and protect your investments so you don’t have to sit glued to the screen all the time.
📍 Why Stop Loss Orders Matter
Stop loss orders play a big role in risk management. These easy-to-set trading tools help traders stick to predefined risk tolerance levels by limiting the amount of money they are willing to lose on any given trade.
Without a stop loss order in place, traders may give in to emotional decision-making during periods of market volatility, leading to potential losses. If you have a hard time cutting your losses If you have a hard time cutting your losses when —ok, we get it, you're a bigshot— IF positions go against you, setting a stop loss when you enter the market will do the hard work for you.
➡️ Risk Management: One of the primary reasons stop loss orders are essential is because they help traders manage risk effectively. This is crucial in volatile markets where prices can fluctuate rapidly, as it prevents significant losses that could otherwise occur if trades were left unattended.
➡️ Emotional Control: Trading can evoke strong emotions such as fear and greed, which can lead to irrational decision-making. Without a stop loss order in place, traders may be tempted to hold onto losing positions in the hope that the market will reverse in their favor.
➡️ Peace of Mind: Knowing that there is a safety net in place can provide traders with peace of mind. Stop loss orders allow you to do your thing in the market without obsessively watching charts and tickers. Set your stop loss orders and focus on other aspects of your market study like catching up on the latest market-moving news and analysis .
➡️ Preventing Catastrophic Losses: In extreme market conditions, prices can experience sudden and significant declines. Without stop loss orders, traders risk experiencing catastrophic losses that could wipe out a significant portion of their capital.
➡️ Enforcing Discipline: Successful trading requires discipline and adherence to a well-defined trading plan. Stop loss orders help enforce discipline by striving to ensure that traders stick to their predetermined risk management rules. If trading is about discipline and consistency, then stop loss orders are the stepping stone to success.
📍 Setting Stop Loss Levels
Choosing the appropriate stop loss level is a critical aspect of using stop loss orders effectively. Traders should consider various factors, including their risk tolerance, investment objectives, market conditions, and the volatility of the asset being traded.
A common approach is to set the stop loss below a significant support level or a recent low in an uptrend (if you have a long position) and above a significant resistance level or a recent high in a downtrend (if you have a short position).
Example: Suppose you purchase shares of a company called X (not Elon Musk’s privately held X Corp., which he created by rebranding Twitter) at $50 per share. You estimate that a 5% decline in the stock price would indicate a potential trend reversal. Therefore, you set your stop loss order at $47.50 per share to limit your potential loss to 5% of your investment.
📍 Types of Stop Loss Orders
There are several types of stop loss orders that traders can utilize, each with its own special characteristics. The most common types include:
➡️ Market Stop Loss: a type of stop loss order that triggers a market order to sell the instrument at the prevailing market price once the stop loss level is reached.
➡️ Stop Limit: with a stop limit order, you have to deal with two types of prices. The first one is the price that will trigger a sell and the limit price. But instead of converting your order into a sell based on current market prices, you set a limit price.
➡️ Trailing Stop Loss: A trailing stop loss order is dynamically adjusted based on the movement of the instrument’s price. It allows traders to lock in profits while giving the trade room to move in their favor.
Example: You purchase shares of a big tech company at $100 per share, and the stock price then rises to $120 per share. You set a trailing stop loss order with a 10% trail. If the stock price declines by 10% from its peak, the trailing stop loss order will trigger, selling the shares at prevailing market prices.
📍 Adjusting Stop Loss Orders
While setting stop loss orders is essential, monitoring and adjusting them as market conditions evolve is equally important. Traders should regularly reassess their stop loss levels to account for changes in volatility, price action, and overall market sentiment. Additionally, as profits accumulate, trailing stop loss orders should be adjusted to protect gains and minimize potential losses.
📍 Summary
In conclusion, stop loss orders are one of the most essential and effective tools for traders seeking to manage risk and preserve and grow capital in the challenging world of trading. By understanding how to use stop loss orders effectively, you can rein in emotional decision-making, protect your investments, and increase your chances of long-term success.
Whether you're a novice or an experienced trader, integrating stop loss orders into your trading strategy is a smart approach to navigate the twists and turns of the financial markets. Remember, trading involves inherent risks, but with proper risk management techniques like stop loss orders, you can tilt the odds of success in your favor.
❓Do you use stop loss orders when trading? Which type ? Let us know in the comments ⬇️
Diversification: What It Is, Why It Matters & How to Do ItDiversification is a market strategy that enables you to spread your money across a variety of assets and investments in pursuit of uncorrelated returns, hedging, and risk control.
Table of Contents
What is portfolio diversification?
Brief history of the modern portfolio theory
Why is diversification important?
An example of diversification at work
How to diversify your portfolio
Components of a diversified portfolio
Build wealth through diversification
Diversification vs concentration
Summary
📍 What is portfolio diversification?
Portfolio diversification is the strategy of spreading your money across diverse investments in order to mitigate risk, hedge and balance your exposure in pursuit of uncorrelated returns. While it may sound complex at first, portfolio diversification could be your greatest strength when you set out to trade and invest in the financial markets.
As a matter of fact, once you immerse yourself into the markets, you will be overwhelmed by the wide horizons waiting for you. That’s when you’ll need to know about diversification.
There are thousands of stocks available for trading, dozens of indices, and a sea of cryptocurrencies. Choosing your investments will invariably lead to relying on diversification in order to protect and grow your money.
Diversifying well will enable you to go into different sectors, markets and asset classes. Together, all of these will build up your diversified portfolio.
📍 Brief history of the modern portfolio theory
“ Diversification is both observed and sensible; a rule of behavior which does not imply the superiority of diversification must be rejected both as a hypothesis and as a maxim. ” These are the words of the father of the modern portfolio theory, Harry Markowitz.
His paper on diversification called “Portfolio Selection” was published in The Journal of Finance in 1952. The theory, which helped Mr. Markowitz win a Nobel prize in 1990, posits that a rational investor should aim to maximize their returns relative to risk.
The most significant feature from the modern portfolio theory was the discovery that you can reduce volatility without sacrificing returns. In other words, Mr. Markowitz argued that a well-diverse portfolio would still hold volatile assets. But relative to each other, their volatility would balance out because they all comprise one portfolio.
Therefore, the volatility of a single asset, Mr. Markowitz discovered, is not as significant as the contribution it makes to the volatility of the entire portfolio.
Let’s dive in and see how this works.
📍 Why is diversification important?
Diversification is important for any trader and investor because it builds out a mix of assets working together to yield returns. In practice, all assets contained in your portfolio will play a role in shaping the total performance of your portfolio.
However, these same assets out there in the market may or may not be correlated. The interrelationship of those assets within your portfolio is what will allow you to reduce your overall risk profile.
With this in mind, the total return of your investments will depend on the performance of all assets in your portfolio. Let’s give an example.
📍 An example of diversification at work
Say you want to own two different stocks, Apple (ticker: AAPL ) and Coca-Cola (ticker: KO ). In order to easily track your performance, you invest an equal amount of funds into each one—$500.
While you expect to reap handsome profits from both investments, Coca-Cola happens to deliver a disappointing earnings report and shares go down 5%. Your investment is now worth $475, provided no leverage is used.
Apple, on the other hand, posts a blowout report for the last quarter and its stock soars 10%. This move would propel your investment to a valuation of $550 thanks to $50 added as profits.
So, how does your portfolio look now? In total, your investment of $1000 is now $1,025, or a gain of 2.5% to your capital. You have taken a loss in Coca-Cola but your profit in Apple has compensated for it.
The more assets you add to your portfolio, the more complex the correlation would be between them. In practice, you could be diversifying to infinity. But beyond a certain point, diversification would be more likely to water down your portfolio instead of helping you get more returns.
📍 How to diversify your portfolio
The way to diversify your portfolio is to add a variety of different assets from different markets and see how they perform relative to one another. A single asset in your portfolio would mean that you rely on it entirely and how it performs will define your total investment result.
If you diversify, however, you will have a broader exposure to financial markets and ultimately enjoy more probabilities for winning trades, increased returns and decreased overall risks.
You can optimize your asset choices by going into different asset classes. Let’s check some of the most popular ones.
📍 Components of a diversified portfolio
Stocks
A great way to add diversification to your portfolio is to include world stocks , also called equities. You can look virtually anywhere—US stocks such as technology giants , the world’s biggest car manufacturers , and even Reddit’s favorite meme darlings .
Stock selection is among the most difficult and demanding tasks in trading and investing. But if you do it well, you will reap hefty profits.
Every stock sector is fashionable in different times. Your job as an investor (or day trader) is to analyze market sentiment and increase your probabilities of being in the right stock at the right time.
Currencies
The forex market , short for foreign exchange, is the market for currency pairs floating against each other. Trading currencies and having them sit in your portfolio is another way to add diversification to your market exposure.
Forex is the world’s biggest marketplace with more than $7.5 trillion in daily volume traded between participants.
Unlike stock markets that have specific trading hours, the forex market operates 24 hours a day, five days a week. Continuous trading allows for more opportunities for price fluctuations as events occurring in different time zones can impact currency values at any given moment.
Cryptocurrencies
A relatively new (but booming) market, the cryptocurrency space is quickly gaining traction. As digital assets become increasingly more mainstream, newcomers enter the space and the Big Dogs on Wall Street join too , improving the odds of growth and adoption.
Adding crypto assets to your portfolio is a great way to diversify and shoot for long-term returns. There’s incentive in there for day traders as well. Crypto coins are notorious for their aggressive swings even on a daily basis. It’s not unusual for a crypto asset to skyrocket 20% or even double in size in a matter of hours.
But that inherent volatility holds sharpened risks, so make sure to always do your research before you decide to YOLO in any particular token.
Commodities
Commodities, the likes of gold ( XAU/USD ) and silver ( XAG/USD ) bring technicolor to any portfolio in need of diversification. Unlike traditional stocks, commodities provide a hedge against inflation as their values tend to rise with increasing prices.
Commodities exhibit low correlation with other asset classes, too, thereby enhancing portfolio diversification and reducing overall risk.
Incorporating commodities into a diversified portfolio can help mitigate risk, enhance returns, and preserve purchasing power in the face of inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainty and other macroeconomic risks.
ETFs
ETFs , short for exchange-traded funds, are investment vehicles which offer a convenient and cost-effective way to gain exposure to a number of assets all packaged in the same instrument. These funds pull a bunch of similar stocks, commodities and—more recently— crypto assets , into the same bundle and launch it out there in the public markets. Owning an ETF means owning everything inside it, or whatever it’s made of.
ETFs typically have lower expense ratios compared to mutual funds, making them affordable investment options.
Whether you seek broad market exposure, niche sectors, or thematic investing opportunities, ETFs are a convenient way to build a diversified portfolio tailored to your investment objectives and risk preferences.
Bonds
Bonds are fixed-income investments available through various issuers with the most common one being the US government. Bonds are a fairly complex financial product but at the same time are considered a no-brainer for investors pursuing the path of least risk.
Bonds have different rates of creditworthiness and maturity terms, allowing investors to pick what fits their style best. Bonds with longer maturity—10 to 30 years—generally offer a better yield than short-term bonds.
Government bonds offer stability and low risk because they’re backed by the government and the risk of bankruptcy is low.
Cash
Cash may seem like a strange allocation asset but it’s actually a relatively safe bet when it comes to managing your own money. Sitting in cash is among the best things you can do when stocks are falling and valuations are coming down to earth.
And vice versa—when you have cash on-hand, you can be ready to scoop up attractive shares when they’ve bottomed out and are ready to fire up again (if only it was that easy, right?).
Finally, cash on its own is a risk-free investment in a high interest-rate environment. If you shove it into a high-yield savings account, you can easily generate passive income (yield) and withdraw if you need cash quickly.
📍 Build wealth through diversification
In the current context of market events, elevated interest rates and looming uncertainty, you need to be careful in your market approach. To this end, many experts advise that the best strategy you could go with in order to build wealth is to have a well-diversified portfolio.
“ Diversifying well is the most important thing you need to do in order to invest well ,” says Ray Dalio , founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates.
“ This is true because 1) in the markets, that which is unknown is much greater than that which can be known (relative to what is already discounted in the markets), and 2) diversification can improve your expected return-to-risk ratio by more than anything else you can do. ”
📍 Diversification vs concentration
The opposite of portfolio diversification is portfolio concentration. Think about diversification as “ don’t put your eggs in one basket. ” Concentration, on the flip side, is “ put all your eggs in one basket, and watch it carefully. ”
In practice, concentration is focusing your investment into a single financial asset. Or having a few large bets that would assume higher risk but higher, or quicker, return.
While diversification is a recommended investment strategy for all seasons, concentration comes with bigger risks and is not always the right approach. Still, at times when you have a high conviction on a trade and have thoroughly analyzed the market, you may decide to bet heavily, thus concentrating your investment.
However, you need to be careful with concentrated bets as they can turn against your portfolio and wreck it if you’re overexposed and underprepared. Diversification, however, promises to cushion your overall risk by a carefully balanced approach to various financial assets.
📍 Summary
A diversified portfolio is essentially your best bet for coordinated and sustainable returns over the long term. Choosing a mix of various types of investments, such as stocks, ETFs, currencies, and crypto assets, would spread your exposure and provide different avenues for growth potential. Not only that, but it would also protect you from outsized risks, sudden economic shocks, or unforeseen events.
While you decrease your risk tolerance, you raise your probability of having winning positions. Regardless of your style and approach to markets, diversifying well will increase your chances of being right. You can be a trader and bet on currencies and gold for the short term. Or you can be an investor and allocate funds to stocks and crypto assets for years ahead.
Potential sources of diversification are everywhere in the financial markets. Ultimately, diversifying gives you thousands of opportunities to balance your portfolio and position yourself for risk-adjusted returns.
🙋🏾♂️ FAQ
❔ What is portfolio diversification?
► Portfolio diversification is the strategy of spreading your money across diverse investments in order to mitigate risk, hedge and balance your exposure in pursuit of uncorrelated returns.
❔ Why is diversification important?
► Diversification is important for any trader and investor because it creates a mix of assets working together to yield high, uncorrelated returns.
❔ How to diversify your portfolio?
► The way to diversify your portfolio is to add a variety of different assets and see how they perform relative to one another. If you diversify, you will have a broader exposure to financial markets and ultimately enjoy more probabilities for winning trades, increased returns, and decreased overall risks.
Do you diversify? What is your strategy? Do you rebalance? Let us know in the comments.
Liked this article? Give it a boost 🚀 and don't forget to follow us if you want to be among the first to be informed.
CHFJPY Short Analysis + Trade IdeaCHFJPY 4HR Analysis + Trade Idea by OfficialKieranTrewick
Looking for a 4HR fractal pivot rejection off 170.750-171.000 to provide good entries for shorts down to 169.500 - 167.000, The daily trend is very strong with chfjpy ongoing since 2021 and with multiple recent rejections off the latter side it seems it may be loading up for the surge into ATNH but with how strong of a resistance there has been at 171.500 i am not sure if this will be anytime soon, and with how strong the trend has been there is definitely room for some exhaustion down to 165-163 without affecting any long term market structure.
Currently where the inner trend meets the underside of the largescale trend within a large range zone block trapped between 50% and a strong resistance level, the key here is just patience and waiting for the right confirmations to play out.
On friday I already entered a short position with my VIP group from around 170.850 with various take profits levels down to 170.750, 170.500, 170.250, and 169.250.
understanding how to analyze observing the charts aren't always easy , its ok to walk away until you find the perfect entry. Main thing is to always have a game plan for execution , you must have a set amount you looking to make ; get it and go and also Over trading can be very dangerous. when i start my observations i go from the 5min chart all the way to the 1 day chart to see which way i want to go with , today i went with shorts ( market going downward direction ) mind you im trading with 1500 contracts , its safe to start with 1-3 contracts and build your confidence from there.
Demo Accounts are "Rigged" against us all!But not by any of the brokers.....
They are rigged by OUR OWN MINDS
Let me explain.....
You start learning how to trade, all the lingo, and even some strategy.
You start a demo account, doesn't matter where, and just start trading
You do it just like you learned, from where ever you learned it. Indicators, check, do the analysis, check, major levels, check, and so on.
You place the first trade, with stop and take profit. It wins.
You do it again, and again. Maybe lose here or there, but for the most part you keep winning. You look at the balance finally, and wow, it's up an insane amount. Maybe it was luck, reset and do it again.
You don't pay much attention to the profit or loss of each trade, and even further you may not even pay attention to floating profit and loss (unrealized gain or loss). Money is not important, it's just a demo and you are only trying to test and make sure you know what you're doing, and you won't be trading 100k, it's just practice.
You just missed something that is critical.....
"Money is not important"
It's fake who cares, the strategy and just getting familiar with trading is all you are trying to do. All this fake money doesn't count, it doesn't matter, and you won't watch it at all, or maybe even check after every trade just to feel good about it going higher and higher, but not how much because of trade sizing.
Now you have a lot of confidence, so hey, let's toss $1000 from savings in there and do it for real. You get a spread only account, because that's the starter account.
Account is set up and you don't even bother to see what you can trade with, the margin, none of that. You just do what you did in demo. Everything is set, you apply indicators, what ever you want to do.
"This is going to make me rich" you think, and you place your first trade for 1 lot, because you could place 100 of those in demo, and didn't lose much so it's fine.
Order filled
Immediately, -$23 is all you see. But the trade just opened....
It's now too late, your mind has officially rigged yourself. That instant red number will stick with you.
The price nudges down, only about 4 pips, and you begin to only focus on the floating P&L, The real money you earned, and right now that's $60 in the red, Close it! Close it! Close it! Don't lose it! Whew, got out of that one. Try again
Place another trade, another red $23, now it moves 3 pips against you, oh no, losing again! close it now! ok that's two, but I only have $900 left oh my god, that was fast! This one has to win, because hey, it worked in demo right?
Place another trade.
You know it's red as soon as it opens now, so you wait. Price moves up 4.5 pips, Green, Profit! close it! wow a win finally. Only $35, but a win, going up now.
Place another trade, and because you figure this is when it works like demo, you you think the next one is big. It reverses and takes out the stop loss. You did better but stopped out, lost another big chunk of the account. What's this? price just shot back up and past my target! GGRRRRRRR! It's going to keep on heading up, buy! You don't do the stop loss because it's gone! it has to go, then boom liquidity sweep and it wipes out your account.
But you won in demo, what's wrong!?!?!?! Let's try again.
Repeat the process.
You may do this several times with the same broker, or the different brokers, but you will do the same thing repeatedly. Human nature eventually leads us to believe demo accounts are rigged.
You are 100% correct, but the brokers are not the ones doing it.
When you trade a demo account
YOU DON"T CARE about the money.... It's not real, so why bother, just make sure the strategy works. Check
This is how your mind will "rig" the demo against you.
In demo it's only strategy, testing, trying things out, not the money.
Live account, it's all about the money, because that's what you want out of it of course. And you worked for it, the hard way.
Then, after a few more trades, you see your demo account balance just keep rising again.
Go back to live, Deposit more, and now look harder at the P&L constantly going down, not realizing you tossed the rules out the window again, and you are not trading real the same as when you traded for fake.
The money is real and you don't want to lose.....
This is how demo is rigged.
In order to beat it
You must trade your real account the same as you would a demo account. When you do this, you will notice it won't matter (near as much) which you trade after, you will get the same results.
Demo money is not real, it's a made up unit in a game. If you can manually set the value of your demo, it is best to set it to the same account size as what you intend to trade for real with. This way, you can see the actual P&L, see the real results of backtesting/forward testing, and you can be familiar with the numbers you can expect to see when you use your real money. It is also much less "Traumatic" to our minds as we go to real money from a fake account of the same size, and makes the demo seem more realistic.
If you step down from 100k to 1000 is about the same as going up from trading 1000 to 100k, that's a giant leap in sizing, results, in progress expectations of what it looks like for drawdown and P&L floating, and so on. Just a massive trauma to our mental system. Not having proper and matching expectations is another way our mind will rig the demo against us.
If you find yourself constantly looking at P&L, instead of the trade, it would be good practice to just stay in the demo account until it's boring. The reason you do it to a point of boredom is so you will train yourself to trade by sticking to your strategy and rules as a habit, not just an emotion because the money is real this time.
Once real money gets involved, all the rules "go out the window" even if you don't realize it. It becomes all about the money, and not about repeating the results. Things won't seem the same as they were before, you think. Things are in fact exactly the same as before, minus one key element: The real money.
And that is how you rig the demo accounts against yourself.
Forget about the money in the real account, and just focus on making the trade. Trust your risk management and your math to find the right risk size, set the order and target/stops, and let it rip just like you did in demo. If they don't feel the same, real or live, be careful you are not looking too hard at money, and not hard enough at the actual trade the market is presenting to you and your strategy.
Been there and done that. I agreed with the crowd for a long time, until I did one day demo, one day live, one day demo, one day live, back and forth back and forth, and finally, it hit me, and I got mostly out of it. I still look at money sometimes, but because of journaling and tracking my trades with tradingview, I can see, most of the times I have the right Idea, I just didn't wait long enough. This makes me think back to my demo days, and how the argument around it today is. Yes brokers want your money, but they don't get the money you trade. They are not "hunting your specific stop just because they don't like you" no. They make money by fees on trades you place. That's it.
If they make money on your trade by taking the other side of your trade, that is not a reputable broker, and I only advise reputable brokers to work with, not some new company in the Kaiman isles or something out of jurisdiction of any law, but that's a topic for another time.....
*I've had this argument for the case against how demos are rigged for a long time, just never posted it. Thought here would be a great place to put it, and maybe help some others out of the trap I was in with so many other traders having the same attitude to demo account trading.
Yeah it's definitely rigged. To what degree depends on the mind who is using it at the time.....
How to start Trading?I'm very active in a few communities (the Tradingview official Discord for example) and one of the most asked question is: How do I start trading?
Let me try to give you a blueprint on what to do to at least get some foot in the ground!
Lets make something clear: you are learning a new job here! thread it that way and you will have the best chances!
(No job on this planet can be learned in just a few weeks, you need months and years to get on a level you can be sell-employed)
I give you a fast-track on certain things but make sure you research every point more then I provide still, this is just the blueprint.
After that, its you that has to study. no one can help you there..
--- Candles ---
OHLC (Open High Low Close) is all you need, its the founding blocks on 99% of TA out there!
Open and Close are the values when the candle opened/closed on the timeframe you are on.
High and Low is the highest and lowest value trades were happening while in the timeframe (also called: Wicks).
Volume is also something you hear a lot and is important to know, it shows how much was traded in that candle (shows the power~)
--- TA (Technical Analysis) ---
With TA we try to predict a probability in future prices to find opportunities in the market.
Across Tradingview there are thousands and thousands of indicators available to you, we just need to focus on the biggest and most common ones for the start.
RSI
MACD
Moving Averages (simple, exponential, smoothed, and so on..)
Price trends
Support and Resistance
Volume
Start with those 6 and work your way through all of them, analyse how they work, what they mean, where they come from and you have a good knowledge for future improvements.
(yes, you probably don't need all of them, its just a good base to have)
--- Trading Terms and there meaning ---
Learn the following words and what they mean in the sense of trading:
- Long / Short
- Bid / Ask (combined with spread below)
- Crypto, Forex, CFD, Stocks, Options (Bonds, Shares, Indices...)
- Market Order / Limit Order (Stoploss, Profit Target)
- Leverage
- Margin
- Spread / Slippage (related to News)
there are a lot more to learn, but this will get you suited for the next few points.
--- Find your way ---
Find what you can do and what you can't do (some of us have family, a 9to5 job, other things) that will not let you trade every way.
Make yourself a time-table, a budget plan and then research on this criteria how you want to spend your trading-time.
(If you have a 9to5 job, you probably cant watch the chart on a minute timeframe, so strategies involving this is not suited)
--- Risk Reward ---
Calculate how much you need and with that information backtest your strategy to find out how profitable it is and then set your risk:reward ratio to the calculated risk you can afford to lose to still make the profit you need in the end.
Example: If you lose 2 trades with a RR of 1:5 and win another one, you won 3R (Lost 2 = -2R, Won 1:5 so + 5R = 3R - its not precise, as there is slippage and commissions). If you are happy with 2R, then thats the way you trade from now on.
Keep this always the same as the math dont lie but your feelins will try to betray you (thats the psyochology part that comes up next)
This point is very, very important to understand and to learn and to adapt to your circumstances. if you don't do that, you will fail no matter what!
--- Psychology ---
Well, thats one of the major points and its very, very big.
Do a lot of research on this part and also use papermoney as kind of a challenge for yourself so if you lose it, you still get "mad".
baseline is: dont have feelings! it has to be all mathematical and mechanical.
--- Paper Trade ---
Yes, don't use your own money in the beginning, you can paper trade on Tradingview for free without any risk and you can test all the strategies/indicators on this planet for free and see how they perform.
Make challenges for yourself (so psychology is also trained).
Don't underestimate this point, paper trade for at least 6 month every day 6h to really grasp what you are up to, what you are doing, how to improve everything and to get the feeling for everything!
Once you went through those points you are given a toolbelt with a lot of tools, now its time to figure out what tool to use in what situation.
Research a lot of strategies and find something that works for you.. and then melt it into something useful!
Selection & how to operateThe obvious part if you've understood all the previous posts.
It's easier to start with how Not to trade .
Wrong - cherry picking "strong" levels. Every level is a level, not better & not worse than another one. Choosing the supposedly strong levels is a subjective thing that reduces expected value & consistency.
Right - operating at each level on a given resolution, you either expect a level to repel prices or to be consumed, you operate accordingly at every level. The more you operate, better for the market, higher your revenues. If there too many levels for you, instead of cherry picking you just move to a lower resolution. Some levels can be effectively skipped because of risk & sizing consideration, but skipping levels an cherry picking levels are 2 completely different mindsets.
Wrong - stopping operation after N loosing trades.
Right - controlling equity as explained in "Sizing & how to manage risk". If you're making loosing trades in a row, you don't stop, you just hit zero size, then you imagine trades or execute on simulator, when your size comes back to a non-zero value you come back to the real account. More you operate - better for the business.
Wrong - waiting for a "confirmation". If you don't have a firm expectation whether a level will repel prices or will be consumed, you don't know what you're doing, read all the posts and understand how it all works.
Right - knowing in advance what you gonna do at each level & keep reevaluating it in real time.
Wrong - making reentries. The activity around levels, especially how levels get cleared, is very well defined. After the scaling in is complete, you either exit at loss/at breakeven when a level gets cleared / positioned in the unexpected side. Or, you scale out while being in the money.
Right - unless there was a mistake caused by a misclick or smth like dat, reentries is an irrelevant concept.
Wrong - working out insurance after the entry.
Right - a hedge should be bought BEFORE scaling in, same goes about placing the stop-losses.
How to operate
Asset selection
Not many people think about it, but it makes sense not only to provide liquidity when & where there's not much of it, but also to consume excessive liquidity when & where there's too much of it, because both cases are unhealthy for the markets. So, we have 2 types of trading instruments then:
1) overquoted ones, such as GE, ZN, or ES many years ago;
2) underquoted ones, such as CL, NQ;
How to distinguish dem?
One way is to take a look at volumes on highest resolution cluster/footprint chart, and compare em with the actual number of bid/asks in the DOM. ZN for example is hugely overquoted, you'll notice that: it has aprox 1000 contract at every bid/ask price, but when these limit orders start to get consumed at one price, the rest orders at the same price just gets cancelled, and you see lesser values on your footprint/cluster chart. The opposite happens on underquoted instruments, they need liquidity.
Why it matters?
You operate the same way on both under and overquoted vehicles, but:
1) on underquoted vehicles you mainly use limit orders, you provide liquidity;
2) on overquoted vehicles you mainly use market orders, you remove liquidity;
Exits at loss vs attempting to get out around breakeven
Both are legit, the latter gives more freedom, but implies not using stop-losses so you have to know 4 sure what's happening and what you're doing.
That's how you trade with stoplosses.
1) In case of trading pops from positioned levels, you simply exit when the support/resistance gets cleared, in case of clearing by price it means you'll have an L, no big deal tho;
2) In case of trading pushes through positioned levels (aka trading clearings aka trading consumptions), same, you're getting an L if you hit the invalidation point. The invalidation point for these trades is the opposite border of the positioning sequence. This border is found the same ways as the front level, just at the opposite side;
3) Trading during a positioning itself. Makes least sense to trade with stop-losses, but in theory: taking an L at the next level past the level you expect to be positioned this or that way. If there is no level past you current level, you try to make a projection, smth like its shown on ZN chart of this post, imagine you were trading positioning of 112'19.
Without stops it's almost the same, it's just instead of taking an immediate loss after an invalidation event, you exit at breakeven when price comes back to the entry zone (in most cases it does). If prices don't go back and hit another level, you simply continue trading there, if that new level you're working with now is supposed to act in the opposite direction from the previous one, you simply reverse your position. If that new level is supposed to work in the same direction as the previous one, you're holding your position further.
This kind of operation assumes very high win rate, low RR ratio and very rare but significant losses. However, if the unexpected happens 2 times in row, chances are the problem is on your side xD
Finally
1) Monitor non-market data in order not to be caught against the momentum surges (eg unless you're a DMM, trading at Jobless Claims release is a BAD IDEA);
2) Pick your main resolution that way you'll be satisfied with the frequency of your operations;
3) Work with all the levels there;
4) Never approach the next level while having a full position, always offload risk on the way, unless you expect the next level to be cleared/positioned in the same direction;
5) Always control risks;
6) Understand that it's all about doing the right thing, and it's totally possible to understand what is right by gaining all the info from all the data.
You should end up trading 100% of positioned levels, trading 50% of positioning processes demselves, and rofl never try to trade smth that looks like "a new level is forming now".
HOW-TO: Adjust Default Parameters in MLC for Intraday TradingThe default parameters in Master/Last Candle (MLC) indicator are used for the standard timeframe 1D. Due to the difference in nature between bars of intraday timeframes and bars of day-and-above timeframes, some settings could be changed as below to make the indicator tailored to your case.
• Increase default Max Volume Drop % from 25 to 30. We have seen a case in timeframe 30m that requires deeper volume drop than 25% to catch the big move. If you also find a big move that is not captured by MLC, try to adjust this measure as we do. If it is not your case, ignore this item and keeping the old default value as 25.
Before
After
• Other parameters: Percentile % , Min Price Breakout % .
Before
After increasing Percentile % of Cx candles from 50 to 60
After increasing Min Price Breakout % from 20 to 25
Tutorial On How I Look For Entries/Exits Each Day - ATOMUSD - 1DHello traders,
I meant to publish this in the morning but I got pulled away on something else. It seems my analysis would have been correct, so I'll share this now.
This method is just one of many ways a trader can identify trend direction and entry/exit points at the beginning of each day.
To start...
I identify all patterns and indicator setups that indicate something bearish (the ones in red) or bullish (the ones in green).
I put a +1 tally next to each of them. After identifying all the setups I can, I count the tallies for bullish/bearish bias.
Today, even though the immediate term was looking bullish, there were more bearish signals than bullish ones.
For good measure I then like to do a left to right scan across the chart to see which ones are most prominent to the right (i.e. currently).
I saw the breakdown of the trendline on the right side of the chart, and paired with the bearish signals outnumbering the bullish signals.. I opened a short which was very profitable.
Don't be like Bully Maguire...If you are feeling the emotional swings of Bitcoins price and you want to trade with confidence then this is for you.
The following things I am about to talk about drastically changed the way I approach trading.
They are so powerful in their application...
No need for cheap gimmicks and fancy tricks.
So here it goes:
Operate on first principles.
Millions of traders have SOS...
Shiny object syndrome.
They chase every "new" technique that hits the market, it doesn't matter if it works, aslong as they got to try it and didn't miss out on anything they will be happy - for a time.
It is marketing 101 to rile up those emotion in traders, don't fall for it.
Be stoic, hold your ground and stick to first principles.
If you don't I can tell you in my experience (9 years), you will chase strategies and ideas like they are a sold gold brick but they will just turn out to be gold dust that will fall through your fingers at a moments notice.
You will move throughout life with a chip on your soldier, negatively affecting those around you like a cheap knock-off Bully Maguire meme.
So...
What are the first principles of trading?
And how do you act from first principles?
I am not allowed (house rules) to provide you with a link to these questions so instead use your deduction methods Sherlock to find your answers.
HOW-TO: Cosmic Pi Cycle #3This HOW-TO tutorial will show how to use markers and the channel fill to re-enter and exit positions.
🪐 SETTINGS (Indicator 1)
Mult: 1.25
Top Markers: ON
Bottom Markers: OFF
🪐 SETTINGS (Indicator 2)
Mult: 0.9
Top Markers: OFF
Bottom Markers: ON
👩🏫 COMMON PATTERNS
🗠 A
After the appearance of a fake primary top marker the price level at the time of the marker (horizontal bar) is successfully tested from below. This is a bullish signal.
🗠 B
Following a large bullish trend after the appearance of a false primary top marker, the appearance of a secondary top marker together with the gradual stabilization of the price is a bearish signal.
🗠 C & D
Similar to the testing of the price at "A" but here the price is tested from below. The general strategy is to short when the price drops below the level indicated by the horizontal bar (the price at "C" when the price reverses at the edge of the channel).
🗠 E, F & G
Favorable times to enter long positions is when the price drops sharply and touches the borders of the channel from above. Generally if you find appropriate Mult values using the markers you will also enable the channel to display accurate support and resistance levels.
HOW-TO: Cosmic Pi Cycle #2This HOW-TO tutorial will show how to use both markers and the channel to successfully predict price reversals.
🪐 SETTINGS (Indicator 1)
Mult: 1.55
Top Markers: ON
Bottom Markers: OFF
🪐 SETTINGS (Indicator 2)
Mult: 0.85
Top Markers: OFF
Bottom Markers: ON
👩🏫 COMMON PATTERNS
🗠 A & G
As price stabilizes after a volatile trend and is about to re-enter the Pi Cycle channel the secondary markers confirm the anticipated entry. The suggestion is that volatility will resume but there are no hints as to the direction of the next trend aside from the general angle of the price entry into the channel.
🗠 B, C, D, E & H
The Pi Cycle channel itself is a great way to predict price reversals. The price approaching or touching the borders of the channel, inside and out, is an indication that a price reversal is likely.
🗠 F
A false primary marker reversal signal is easy to spot because here it appears after the bullish price momentum reverses and the price begins to fall. The general rule for using primary markers is that they are effective before a price reversal and no new highs or lows should be made after its occurrence.
HOW-TO: Cosmic Pi Cycle #1This HOW-TO tutorial will show how to setup the Mult value and how to use primary and secondary markers.
🪐 SETTINGS (Indicator 1)
Mult: 1.7
Top Markers: ON
Bottom Markers: OFF
🪐 SETTINGS (Indicator 2)
Mult: 0.85
Top Markers: OFF
Bottom Markers: ON
👩🏫 MULT
The Mult value has to be set anew for every symbol / timeframe combination. The way to set the Mult correctly is to look at the span of the entire chart and through trial and error decide where the markers look the most correct (🗠 A, C & E) . You can also look at the channel fill and set the Mult so that the highs and lows hit around the borders of the fill (🗠 F, G, H & I) .
👩🏫 MARKERS
Primary (circle) markers make sense either when the price flattens out or when they appear at or near the very extreme of a steep price rise or fall. If a primary marker appears in the middle of a bullish (🗠 B) or bearish (🗠 D) trend you can wait until the possible appearance of a secondary (square) marker (🗠 C & E) to better estimate any major price reversals.
Note that since secondary markers are a weaker signal than primary markers, the price reversal signals they may give can be related to smaller trends than those of the primary markers.
HOW-TO Determine If It Is Time To Buy Or Sell With AutoClimateHOW-TO Determine If It Is Time To Be A Buyer Or A Seller
What does this invite-only script do?
This app aims to assist when identifying which one is the right side of the market in which to trade: long, or short, or simply doing nothing and avoiding trading.
The above concept is the reason for the name of this indicator: “Climate”, as this word defines the current market environment and therefore helps when planning a new trade to be executed.
The desired trade duration (position, swing or intraday trades) would depend on the time interval (time-frame) selected when applying the indicator. A common practice in the industry consists of assessing the current market environment (climate) by using a larger time-frame and plan specific trades using lower time-frames to reduce the dollar-risk of the trade. Ultimately, this type of process and decisions correspond to the user of this app.
How to manually insert this indicator into a TradingView chart?
Locate the upper toolbar within the Chart where you plan to insert this indicator, Click on Indicators and Click on Invite-Only Scripts
Select “!AutoClimate” by left-clicking on it
Note: Once this app is inserted in a chart it then needs to be calibrated. Please refer to the Section on Calibration to understand how to perform this process.
Which components are displayed?
The example illustrates the various components available when using AutoClimate™ applied to a chart:
Dots: Their colour point at the direction in which a market is likely to move where ruby represents down-markets and sapphire represents up-markets.
Thin dots represent unconfirmed market conditions (climate) and thick dots represent confirmed market conditions (climate).
ATR Spread: The size of the “ATR Spread” vertical line represents the distance from the current price on the chart to an average “ideal” trading price. The distance is measured in multiples of a standard ATR (Average True Range) calculation applied to the current time-frame.
When the line is above the dot it means that the price of that market is at a certain distance away from the “ideal” average price and moving in the expected direction defined by the dot colour (ruby is down, sapphire is up).
When the line is below the dot and becomes grey colour, it means that the market is no longer moving in the expected direction and that the “ideal” average price has been exceeded.
Stats: The app displays 4 digits with relavant information which depends on the amount of data loaded on the chart:
Distance (measured as an ATR-multiple) from the current price to an average “ideal” price
Statistical duration of up-markets measured in amount of candles
Statistical duration of down-markets measured in amount of candles
Amount of candles corresponding to the current market condition (up or down)
Assessing the Settings Menu and Calibrating the app?
Calibration is a key process in defining how the analysis is carried out and will impact the potential results obtained by the user using this app. The calibration input is down to the user’s personal judgement and is at their own risk.
Calibrating the app is done by changing the user inputs.
Access the input dialog box by following the below steps:
Locate the AutoClimate™ indicator title on the bottom left part of your chart
Click on the Settings wheel
Notice the default calibration settings are set to 9, 14, 14. Feel free to change to any value of your choice.
click "OK"
Below is a description of the various input fields:
EMALength: Can be any value, and refers to the amount of bars used to calculate an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) that is used by the app in order to assess the Market Climate
DMILength: Can be any value, and refers to the amount of bars used to calculate the Directional Movement Values (DMI) that are used by the app in order to assess the Market Climate
ATRLength: Can be any value, and refers to the amount of bars used to calculate the Average True Range (ATR) Value that is used by the app in order to measure how far the current price is from the “ideal” average trading price
Legal Considerations
Disclaimer:
When using this App you understand and acknowledge that the risk of trading can be substantial and that each investor and/or trader must personally consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual, or indicated by simulated historical tests of indicators, is not indicative and in no way a guarantee of future results. Your actual trading may result in profits or losses as no trading system is, or can be, guaranteed.
By using this app, you accept full responsibility for your actions, the trades taken and any profits and losses made. You also agree not to hold the developer of this app responsible for any outcome arising out of your use of this app.
How to use trendlines when trading cryptocurrency 🎓A lot of newcomers have been asking for educational content because you don't understand why my strategies work and how I conclude that a particular price-action will likely happen on certain assets at certain price-levels. It's lovely that my followers aren't just seeking signals, but actually digests the charts I'm sharing and actively tries to expand their repertoire.
Search no further - here's an easy and free guide to trade cryptocurrency, using trendlines. 🤓
Important aspects of using this strategy
A really important step of this strategy is to consider the number of data points you make your trendline from.
In this educational scenario, I've used thicker lines for the trendlines with more data points and dashed lines for trendlines that almost can't be considered as a useful trend. As you can see, we have a very solid trendline, which makes it likely that some significant price-action will happen – eventually to the upside.
Another crucial aspect of the strategy (and every other strategy other than "hold and pray") is to have a take-profit- and invalidation-area.
We always want to know why we're in the position and why we're out of the position. In this particular scenario, I've decided that a convincing break of the strong, bullish trendline would be an invalidation for the trade. If the trendline breaks it doesn't make sense for me to be in the position anymore, since the trade is solely based on the trendline.
Furthermore, the take-profit areas of the trade are based on historic resistance areas. The highest take-profit area is based on a very weak trendline, which is why I wouldn't leave more than 10% of my initial position size to reach that.
This is an easy strategy for trading any asset, that anybody can use no matter how experienced.
Experienced traders also use this strategy. In my own opinion, simple strategies are the best; you'd be surprised how few indicators experienced traders use.
Feel free to ask any questions or share your thoughts about this strategy! 📝
What should we do next with USDxHello Trader around the world, how about your last friday, did you trade?
Last friday I've trade the USDCAD and AUDUSD currency
For AUDUSD I Long and lost already
But USDCAD still at the big resistance and I have short already and put a stop loss at 500pip
I really want Monday to come fast as I can
Today I want to sharing all of you
learn about How the currency connect
Sometime maybe someone Long and Short position in the same time with same currency
It was no good
Long EURUSD and also Long USDCAD is wrong
But Long EURUSD and Short USDCAD is great
Cause if we look at USDx or Dollar index
And try to compare with any currency you will see something connect
First you shoud know that USDx will move same with USDXXX currency and XXXUSD will move converse in the same time
Example
Now USDx move up
USDCAD should move upward
EURUSD should move downward
For now about USDx you will see a price have break already
so if the price will continue to move up
Price should comback and rest at the old Resistance or new support
If you see a price move downward to support
Is mean that USDx move downward
Is mean that USDXXX move downward too
Is mean that XXXUSD will move up
Did you get it?
I hope that the things that I have learned around 3 years can help you and you will be a great trader if you can
Trade is a lot of things you have to learn
And we always have to update a strategy
Is didn't mean you know something and you will rich from it
You have learn a lot of things and use it at the right time, timing is so important
Just it, that's all for today
About how there r connect
Sorry for my bad English
Hope this week you will get a lot of money
Goodluck
XRP bullish outlook / how to tradeXRP performing complex elliot wave correction. Now forming a pennant after upmove, which is likely to break up. Just like the pennant formed after the downmove broke down, i expect this one to break up. Possible bounce zone should be above the last low at point D. Invalidation will be if it goes below. This means a heavier correction is coming. The green line is the confirmation level (C) for the mover higher up.
You can buy this coming pullback with stoploss below D, if your conservative you can buy if confirmation level breaks.
Target is around .7. Best of luck