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USDCAD: Potential Pullback Trade 🇺🇸🇨🇦 USDCAD is consolidating within a narrow horizontal trading range on an hourly time frame. To buy the pair with a confirmation wait for a bullish breakout of the resistance of the range. You need an hourly candle close above that to confirm the breakout. They buy aggressively or on a retest. Your goal will be 1.2668 In case the price breaks the support of the range, the setup will be invalid. ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
12
The Journey of a Trader 🛣🚶 Hey traders, Why 95% of traders fail? In this post, we will discuss the trader's road to success and why most of the traders give up at the halfway point. On the chart, I was trying to portray the journey of a trader: most of the traders start this game with gambling. They randomly buy and sell the market relying on their intuition and with a high degree of probability end up with nice cush.💰 However, as they proceed they realize that the profits that they made were the product of luck, not skill. 🍀 The more they trade, the less they win. At some moment losing trades start to outperform winners. Trying different things, jumping from one strategy to another, one comes to the conclusion that nothing seems to work.🙅‍♂️ He goes broke, he is panicking. At that stage, the majority blame the market for their failure. Forex, stocks, gold trading is complete scam. Making profits on the market is not possible. They give up and leave.👣 Only 5% are persistent. Only 5% are blaming themselves not the market for their failure. They start following a strict trading plan, they follow risk management recommendations of pro traders and at some moment they start making 0.📝 Buying and selling the market, at the end of the day, they don't lose anymore. That is the most important milestone in a trader's journey. Realizing that the one stopped losing, a trader starts polishing and improving his rules in order to achieve better results. He trains and works with his psyche.💪 After years of struggling, one finally contemplates a consistent account growth. He became a pro trader.🏆 I wish you to be persistent, traders and don't give up. Patience pay and at the end of the day winners win. ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
252
What are Moving Averages & how to make money on them?📚 🟢The main rule of using Moving Average is to track the general direction of the moving average: it indicates the dominant trend in the market. It is worth making deals only in the direction of this movement. Such a simple rule makes the moving average method a convenient tool for short-term forecasting. 🟢A universal tool in almost all markets is a simple moving average (SMA) with a 200-day averaging period. A longer-term moving average will allow you to see the global rise or fall of the asset, avoid short-term fluctuations or minor consolidation of the exchange rate. As a rule, short moving averages allow you to react more actively to price movements and are designed to search for short-term trends. When analyzing the price chart on a daily or even shorter interval, many traders use "fast" EMAS with different averaging periods (5, 7, 13, 21, 50). ✅To date, there are many recommendations for the period of the moving average (3, 5, 7, 13, 21, ...), as well as methods of its calculation (SMA, WMA, EMA). The general postulates are as follows: ✅The "faster" the MA (EMA) and the shorter the calculation period (3, 5, 13, ...), the more likely it is to receive false or ambiguous signals; ✅The "slower" the MA (SMA) and the longer the calculation period (50, 100, ...), the more likely the moving average is to lag behind the real state of affairs in the market. ❗️The moving average method is still a universal way to determine the trend in the asset market. Ease of use and unambiguous interpretation of the result allow the investor to determine the prevailing trend with a high degree of probability. This minimizes the risk of making unprofitable deals. The use of the method as an independent tool when deciding on a transaction is controversial, since all possible successful combinations of the intersection of moving averages or the average and the asset price are subject to cyclicity and sometimes give false or ambiguous signals. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
10
Learn Trend Analysis | Impulse & Retracement Legs 📈 Hey traders, As you asked me, in this educational post we will discuss some price action basics. No matter whether you are a fundamental trader or a technical trader you should be able to execute trend analysis. You should always know where the market is going; if it is bullish or bearish. One of the simplest ways to execute trend analysis is to perceive a price chart as a sequence of impulses and retracements. ➖The impulse leg is a trend-following move. It is characterized by heightened movement dynamics and speed. Usually the completion point of the impulse: sets a new lower low in a bearish trend, sets a new higher high in a bullish trend. ➖A retracement leg is a correctional movement within the trend. Its’ initial point is the completion point of the impulse or retracement leg and its completion point might be an initial point of a new retracement leg or of a new impulse leg. Usually, a retracement leg is characterized by a slow zig-zag movement. Usually the completion point of the impulse leg: sets a lower high in a bearish trend, sets a higher low in a bullish trend. Perceiving the price chart as the set of impulses, one can easily and objectively identify a global, mid-term and short-term market trend, price action trend-following, reversal and correctional patterns. What do you want to learn in the next educational articles? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
9
GbpJpy expert analysis from 07-03-22 - Weekly forex forecast The idea shared is an analysis of GbpJpy for a mid term swing. Fundamentally, we are expecting news releases from the United Kingdom next week that would make impact on the British pounds. For now, the retail sales of Japan which was released last Monday is a good driver for the Yen. Sentimentally, as the UK is still faced with inflation and political tension, investors tend to move their money to safe haven currency assets and countries. Technically, Gbpjpy as seen on the chart is approaching from a weekly supply zone to a demand zone. Haven broken and closed below our trick moving average, we expect price to make a slight correction testing either the 0.50 or 0.61 fib level of the break out candle highlighted. In the screenshot. In the video of this analysis, we explained how to trade a breakout candle after price imbalance. Our sentimental bias for the gbpjpy pair is bearish as we plan to hold a short position till price reaches the demand zone. Let,s go take some risk, let's go make some money. Millionaire Logistics
Short
by MillionaireLogistics
1
Japanese Candlesticks: learning to read and understand🕯 ✅Japanese candlesticks are the most popular way to read the price movement on charts. They are visual, easy to learn and the main thing is that they work. ✅The first mention of candle patterns can be found in the Japanese rice trader Homma Munehisa in the 1700s. Almost 300 years later, candles were rediscovered by Steve Neeson in his book titled "Japanese Candles. Graphical analysis of financial markets". ✅Candlestick charts provide much more information compared to linear charts and are currently the preferred market analysis tool for traders and investors. What are Japanese candles? 🟢Each of the candles tells us four facts about itself: the opening price, the maximum price movement, the closing price, and the minimum price movement. ⏺A bullish candle is formed when the price rises. In financial markets, the term bullish means a long position or a buy. ⏺A bearish candle is formed when the price falls. In financial markets, the term bearish refers to a short position or sale. ❗️The body of the candle is the space between the opening and closing of the candle. If the body is green, it means that the closing price of the candle is higher than the opening price. If the color is red, it means the closing price is lower than the opening price of the candle. ❗️Candle wicks represent the highest or lowest points that the candle has reached. 🟢Each candle represents a selected time frame or time interval during which it opens and closes. For example, on a 4-hour chart, candlesticks open and close every 4 hours. 🟢If we line up several candlesticks, we can compare them with a linear chart. Candle wicks also show price fluctuations. Thus, we immediately get the maximum information that we need for effective market analysis. ⚠️A trader who knows how to analyze and interpret candlestick patterns or patterns already understands the actions of financial market participants a little better. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
14
Risk On Risk Off Helpful Proces Spy VS Btc VS Dollar Dxylets review Risk On Risk Off Helpful simple process Spy VS Btc VS Dollar Dxy also Remember trading is risky . Hi traders over the past 28 years trading this correlation has been simple and helpful as an added barometer of assets movements that you can add and watch in your tradingview charts with no extra indicators. Over time the dollar has always been perceived as a strong stable currency and when people move dollar up it is usually perceived as a defensive move by market participants and therefore a risk off situation for speculative assets. Usually what is helpful lately is looking at the SPY vs BTC and compare to the dollar DXY representing safety. Usually dollar Up = SPY + BTC down = Risk Off and vice versa Usually dollar Down = SPY + BTC Up= Risk On Hope this video was helpful
AMEX:SPYEducation
by PowerIndicators
2
How to Draw Legitimate TrendlinesHey Guys! Just wanted to post a quick lesson on "How to Draw Legitimate Trendlines". In this lesson, I explain the 3 rules that must be applied for a trendline to be legitimate. 1.) Trendline's attachment points must be on the wicks of a candle. Not the body of a candles. 2.) There must be at least 3 contact points on a trendline for it to become legitimate. 3.) There must be no break outs or surpasses of the trendline. Moreover, I demonstrate these with examples. That's it! I hope this helped! Have a great day! Ken
Education
by TradingForexPriceAction
1
The Only Proven Way To Success in Trading 🥇 Hey traders, Like any discipline, consistently profitable trading requires many years of practice. In this post, we will discuss the only proven way to become successful in trading. 🔰First, let's start with the axiom: there are no inborn traders, trading is a skill, a skill that can be learned. Though talent may help you in some manner it does not guarantee your success. One more axiom that is logically derived from the first one is the fact that trading is a complex skill. The one that can be split into dozens of subskills. Making that statement we may assume that our success in trading directly depends on mastering each subskill, each domain that it consists of. But how do we master these skills?🤔 The only way to do that is to practice. Practice means doing something regularly in order to be able to do it better. With your first attempts, you are doomed to fail. Inevitable you will suffer and you will feel miserable because of your incompetence. Trying and doing the same thing again and again, at some moment you will feel the progress and growth. Your perseverance will bear fruit. Knock, and it shall be opened to you. And as a consequence, with some attempt, you will feel that finally the skill is mastered, that one more stage in your journey is passed. Polishing the entire set of subskills and learning to apply that as a single unit will make you a consistently profitable trader. Just stipulate the domains properly, name them and be ready to work hard. ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
20
ELON MUSK QUOTES. For powerful thinking👨‍🎓 1️⃣"When it is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor." 2️⃣"No, I don't ever give up. I'd have to be dead or completely incapacitated." 3️⃣"Persistance is very important. You should not give up unless you're forced to give up." 4️⃣"I think it is possible for ordinary people to choose to be extraordinary." 5️⃣"Don't confuse schooling with education, I didn't go to Harvard, but people who work for me did." 6️⃣"Constantly think about how you could be doing better and keep questioning yourself." ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Education
by UnitedSignals
12
Euraud Analysis from 21-02-2022This is an analysis of Euraud highlighting supply and demand zones, advanced price action, resistance and support levels and my very own trick statistics approach to the market. As shown in the screenshot, Price is approaching a weekly demand zone from a supply zone having broken a support level marked by the moving average which acts as a dynamic support and resistance level. We should expect price to make a pull back testing the previous support level now turn resistance and fall to the demand zone. Fundamentally, with unchanged interests rates from the EURO zone and lower than expected trade balance coupled with the lower retail sale report, i would be risking a short on Euro against the Aud. Sentimentally... Let us go take some risk, let us go make some money
Short
by MillionaireLogistics
2
GOLD (XAUUSD) 4H FORECAST Gold gained sharply after hitting an 8-month as Russia and Ukraine tension escalates. The exchange of fire between Kyiv's forces and pro-Russian separatists has affected market sentiment. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose to 248000 the previous week compared to a forecast of 217000. Philly fed manufacturing index dropped to 16.6 in Feb vs. an estimate of 19.90. Factors to watch for gold price action- Global stock market- Bearish (positive for gold) US dollar index –Bearish (positive for gold) US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold) DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision )) <>
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Goldsignal75
5 Possible Outcomes Of Your Trades | Trading Basics 👶 Hey traders, Depending on your actions, you can get 5 completely different results taking just one single trade. 1️⃣The first outcome is a small win. By a small win, I mean a winning trade producing up to 2.5% account growth. 2️⃣The opposite situation leads to a small loss. To me, a small loss is a losing trade producing up to -1% account decline. 3️⃣Occasionally once the price starts moving in the predicted direction, one can protect his trading position moving his stop to entry and making a position risk-free. Being stopped out such a trade produces 0% profit. The level where the position is closed is called a breakeven point. 4️⃣If one perfectly predicts a future direction of the market and opens a trading position accordingly, occasionally, a huge profit can be made. A winning trade producing more than 2.5% net account growth is called a big win. 5️⃣Being wrong in the predictions, however, one can adjust and trail a stop loss not letting himself be stopped out. Such behavior may lead to a substantial loss or even a margin call. A losing trade that produces more than -1% net loss is called a big loss. ❗️Learning how to trade, I strongly recommend you eliminate the 5th outcome. Managing not to lose more than 1% of your account will substantially improve your trading. ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
19
GBPUSD Follow up Analysis and education 12-02-2022This is a follow up analysis for the GBPUSD. what we saw last week from the technical perspective was price going up to fill up liquidity before heading down. fundamentally, the news impact from the US and earlier raised interest rates from UK Caused lots of mixed sentiments and reaction in the market. If price breaks the demand zone below, we can expect the price to fall further, otherwise lets look for swing term sell opportunities. Let us trade with caution. Lets go take some risks, lets go make some money.
by MillionaireLogistics
WHAT IS AN ETF? (Exchange-Traded Fund)📚 ✅An ETF is an exchange-traded investment fund. The fund's management company draws up a strategy and acquires assets in its portfolio, and then issues shares - small shares of this portfolio. When selling an ETF, the investor pays tax in the same way as if it were ordinary shares. ✅If 40 years ago only 6% of American families invested money in investment funds, now they are about 46%. At the end of the third quarter of 2020, $29.5 trillion was invested in open-ended investment funds in the United States — this is almost half of all assets managed by funds around the world. ⚠️What instruments are included in the ETF 🟢The fund's portfolio may consist of any instruments traded on the stock exchange. For example, stocks, bonds, currency, precious metals. Their ratio depends on the fund's strategy. Once in a certain period, the management company reviews the portfolio and rebalances, that is, sells some assets and buys others. 🟢All actions are subject to strict rules, from which managers cannot deviate. All information about the composition of the ETF and the frequency of portfolio rebalancing is available in the fund's documentation. 🟢ETFs can consist of securities, precious metals, derivatives - there are practically no restrictions. Therefore, today there are thousands of funds with very different structures. For example, there is the Global X Millennials ETF— which is a fund for shares of brands beloved by millennials. Or Direxion Work From Home ETF - it invests in services that benefit from the widespread transition to remote work. ❗️What are ETFs 🔴When a fund copies a stock index, it applies replication, that is, it exactly repeats the composition of the index. There are two types of replication — physical and synthetic. If an ETF uses physical replication, it buys the index assets themselves - stocks, bonds, and everything else. 🔴If a fund uses synthetic replication, it does not buy the index assets themselves. Instead, the fund uses an index derivative — an agreement between the parties that the transaction will be executed. A change in the value of the index entails a change in the value of the derivative. On the one hand, this is beneficial for the investor, but on the other hand, a complete repetition of the index may be inaccurate. In addition, there is a risk that the derivative provider will not fulfill its obligations. 🔴In index ETFs, the investor should pay attention to the error of following or tracking error. Let's say the IMOEX index has gained 12% over the year, and the ETF for this index has only 11%. The management costs in this fund are 0.5%, which means that the remaining 0.5% is a follow-up error. This indicator should not be too large, because, in the end, it affects the profitability of the fund. If the fund deviates greatly from the index, the managers do not do their job well. ‼️How the price of an ETF is formed 🔴Shares in ETFs are called shares, they have a market and settlement price - iNAV. 🔴The estimated price is the value of all assets included in one share of the ETF. It can be viewed on the fund's website and the stock exchange. 🔴The market price depends on the supply and demand in the market and differs from the estimated price. It is not profitable for the Fund that the difference between them is too large, otherwise, investors will not buy shares. The market maker makes sure that the price on the stock exchange does not fluctuate much. He puts out large bids in a certain range. The current market price of the fund's shares can be viewed on the stock exchange or in the terminal. 🔴ETFs are a convenient and simple solution for investors who want to get "all in one". For example, they do not want to make a portfolio with their own hands or buy index assets separately. This tool is easy to buy and sell at any time. We can say that an ETF is trust management without red tape with documents and time limits. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
19
FEW SIMPLE TIPS TO IMPROVE YOUR TRADING PERFORMANCEToday we prepared for you few simple tips that may help you improve your trading performance. Please feel welcome to share your own tips in the comment section. Educate yourself. No trader can become successful without spending plenty of time studying charts, fundamentals and technicals. Nowadays, there are plenty of financial gurus and trading courses which claim to offer knowledge that will transform you into a professional trader in just a short amount of time. Unfortunately, most of these services offer only shallow information that has no use in the real trading world. In our opinion, literature written by renowned traders and economists offer more profound knowledge and usually at better cost. Analyze your trades and strategies. Analyzing your past trades and strategies can help you learn from your mistakes. Additionally, it can help you recognize what you did correctly and what works for you. Do not trade without a proper trading plan. Each trade should have a proper trading plan. This plan should at least consist of entry/exit points and risk/reward evaluation. However, creating different scenarios for each trade can help you navigate the market even better. Evaluate your risk/reward associated with each trade. Each trade has a risk/reward ratio tied to it. Generally, a risk/reward ratio of 1:3 or more is preferable. Do not chase the market when you are not sure where it is headed next. There are times when the market is very volatile and experiences swings from side to side. Often, in such times, a trader may be unable to tell where the market is headed next. On such occasions it is usually better to take a step back and not to trade. This can help avoid loss of capital due to whipsaws. Take a time off after the winning streak. Winning streaks often result in confidence being gained by a trader. However, many traders tend to get overconfident which usually leads to loss of capital that has been amassed through the winning streak. Therefore, it is usually better to take some time off trading after substantial gains were made. Take a break from trading after the losing streak. Losing streak can negatively affect a trader's decision making. It can often result in loss of confidence and a needy feeling to make money back. However, a trader should resist these urges and take some break from trading. This is mainly because if a trader does not have confidence, it is much harder to execute trade properly. Do not overtrade. Sometimes there are no good trading opportunities. In such times it is usually better to take the role of market observer instead of trying to make money at any cost. DISCLAIMER: This content serves educational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
TVC:NDQEducation
by Tradersweekly
8
MOVING AVERAGE | 4 Efficient Methods To Apply Hey traders, The moving average is one of the most popular technical indicators. It is applied in stocks/forex/crypto trading and proved its high level of efficiency. There are hundreds of trading strategies based on MA. In this post, we will discuss the 4 most popular ways to apply the moving average. 1️⃣The first method is applied to identify the market trend. While the price keeps trading above the MA, one considers the trend to be bullish and looks for buying opportunities. Once the price starts trading below the MA, the trend is considered to be bearish and a trader is looking for shorting opportunities. 2️⃣The second method applies the combination of 2 MA's: preferably a long-term one and a short-term one. The point is that once a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term MA, with high probability it signifies the initiation of a bullish trend. Alternatively, a crossover of short-term and long-term MA's to the downside indicates a start of a bearish trend. 3️⃣The third method applies MA as a structure. While the moving average is lying above the price, it is considered to be a dynamic resistance. Staying below the price it serves as a strong dynamic support. Perceiving MA as the structure, one applies that for trade entries. 4️⃣The fourth method is aimed to track the crossover of the moving average and the price. The idea is that a bullish violation of the MA by the price gives an early signal for a possible trend reversal. While a bearish breakout of the MA by the market indicates a highly probable bullish trend violation. Backtest different MA's inputs and learn to apply that for predicting the future direction of the market and for trading it. Do you use MA? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
17
4 Harmonic Patterns Every Trader Should Know 📚 Hey traders, In this post, we will discuss 4 phenomenally accurate harmonic patterns that you must know. 1️⃣The first and the simplest harmonic pattern is called ABCD pattern. This pattern is based on 3 legs of a move: ✔️Initial impulse (bullish or bearish). AB leg ✔️Retracement leg with a completion point lying within the range of the initial impulse. BC leg. ✔️Second impulse with a completion point lying beyond the range of the initial impulse (it must have the same direction as the initial impulse). BD leg Equal AB and CD legs indicate a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern. ❗️Please, note that the time horizon and the length of the impulses must be equal. 2️⃣The second harmonic pattern is called Gartley Pattern. This pattern is based on 4 legs of a move and has a "W/M" shape form. To identify a Harmonic Gartley Pattern we measure the retracement of B/C points with Fib. Retracement tool and extension of D point of a harmonic pattern with Fib. Extension tool: ✔️ - The retracement of B point should lie between 0.618 level and 0.786 level of XA leg (Fib. Retracement of XA) *it can touch both 0.618 and 0.786 ✔️ - The retracement of C point should lie between 0.618 level and 1.0 level of AB leg(Fib. Retracement of AB) *it can touch both 0.618 and 1.0 ✔️ - D point should lie strictly on 1.272 extension of AB leg (Fib. Extension of AB) *it should strictly touch 1.272 Such a formation indicates a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern. 3️⃣The third harmonic pattern is called Bat Pattern. This pattern is based on 4 legs of a move and has a "W/M" shape form. To identify a Harmonic Bat Pattern we measure the retracement of B/C/D points of a harmonic pattern with Fib. Retracement tool: ✔️ - The retracement of B point should lie between 0.5 level and 0.618 level of XA leg (Fib. Retracement of XA) *it can touch 0.5 but it can’t touch 0.618 ✔️ - The retracement of C point should lie between 0.618 level and 1.0 level of AB leg(Fib. Retracement of AB) *it can touch both 0.618 and 1.0 ✔️ - The retracement of D point should lie strictly on 0.886 level of XA leg (Fib.Retracement of XA) *it should strictly touch 0.886 Such a formation indicates a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern. 4️⃣The fourth harmonic pattern is called Cypher Pattern. This pattern is based on 4 legs of a move and has a "W/M" shape form with C point lying beyond the range of XA leg. To identify a Harmonic Cypher Pattern we measure the retracement of B point with Fib. Retracement tool and extension of C point with Fib. Extension tool: ✔️ - The retracement of B point should lie between 0.382 level and 0.618 level of XA leg (Fib. Retracement of XA) *it can touch both 0.382 and 0.618 ✔️ - The extension of C point should lie between 1.272 level and 1.414 level of XA leg(Fib. Extension of XA) *it can touch both 1.272 and 1.414 ✔️ - D point should lie strictly on 0.786 retracement of XC leg (Fib. Retracement of XC) *it should strictly touch 0.786 Such a formation indicates a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern. 🦉What is good about these patterns is the fact that they are objective. Since each point of the pattern is measured with Fibonacci levels, one can avoid subjectivity. Try harmonic pattern trading and you will see how efficient this strategy is. Do you trade harmonic patterns? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
33
How to FIND the BEST PAIRS to trade! Examples and explanations.Here the first part of the lesson: How do interest-rates effect the market and how do I find good pairs to trade? The market offers you 5 main asset-classes: 1️⃣ Bonds 2️⃣ Stocks 3️⃣ Commodities 4️⃣ Metalls 5️⃣ Financials What we want to indeifity as a trader is the cashflow, means where big players are buying or selling. They don`t buy breakouts or an obvious momentum that already happened, instead they accumulate or distribute for days / weeks as they have a lot of capital to invest and cause support / resistance aswell as bottoms / tops. Important for them are always the fundamentals such as Economic data, Inflation and so expectations for the monetary policy of central banks they price in. Before we start the journey we need to understand the effect of Interest-Rates I explain that simplyfied and in short as I its a complex topic: The Interest-rate is the rate a central-bank lends money to privat credit institutions for. So your bank aswell as mine has a bank-account at the central bank of your country. They give them money in order to have enough capital to hand out credits to privat customers aswell as companies. The lower the interst-rate is the more demand is in the market. I mean, if you want to buy a car would you rather finance it with 5% or 2% interest-rates? You have the opportunity to buy a car with less debts at the bank. Same for companies, if you need a second office, goods, more capital for production etc. you rather take that opportunity when rates are low. Credit-business has a huge competition and banks will offer lower and lower interst-rates to attract more customers. The longer lent term the more risk is involved as you could for example lose your job and won`t be able to pay back the credit anymore, means interest-rates are usually higher due to the risk than short-term-lendings. The yields are shown in the bondmarket👉 This is why everyone talks about a "reversed rate-curve" as a sign for a recession. Because your bank gets money in the short-term from the Centra Bank on order to hand them out in the long-term to make money. If the risk of an upcoming recession is present the short-term involves more risk, thus short-term yields are higher than long-term-yields and banks can`t give out any credits anymore as they pay more to the central bank than they make. Here a quick overview of interest-rate-effects: Higher interest-rates 1️⃣ Increased cost of borrowing 👉 Reduced investment 👉 Lower economic growth and bad for stocks 2️⃣ Higher mortage interest 👉 Reduced consumption 👉 Lower economic growth and bad for stocks / house prices 3️⃣ Increased return for savings 👉 Less spending 👉 Lower economic growth 4️⃣ More demand in the currency due to higher interests / returns 👉 Lower inflation Vice versa with lower interest-rates. The lower the interest-rate, the more consume and investment is in the market. You see there is a lot to learn and to understand and to give you all information I`d have to finish a course.😆 Let`s start with the corona-crises: The FED has just started to raise interest-rates after the financial crisis in 2008. And as you probably understand now, they lowered them back in the days to provide more money to the market and to boost consume / investment to rescue companies. After the raise corona came and shocked the market. The first reaction of the FED was to lower interest-rates. They do this because they want you not to keep your money on your bank-accound and instead spend it to boost the economy and of course to use the chance to get a credit for better conditions. Additionally they have raised their total balance-sheet, continued with quantative easing (printing money to buy bonds) and we`ve got the stimulus-package. Demand and Supply regulates a price ... now we have tons of supply and fear of inflation. Now ask yourself: What is the best trade here? Probably to short the US-Dollar and to BUY stocks! What currency has the strongest weight in the US-DOLLAR-BASKET? 👉 Euro with ca. 57%. Euro will have the strongest rally due to the weak US-Dollar. What is asked when the stockmarket pumps? Australian Dollar aswell as New Zealand Dollar 👉 Both will fly, but even more than EURO because of the USD weakness. Most attractive pairs: 1️⃣ AUD/USD long 2️⃣ NZD/USD long Also good pairs: 1️⃣ EUR/USD long 2️⃣ GBP/USD long We know AUD and NZD are both stronger than EURO due to the risk-on in the stockmarket means: 1️⃣ EUR/AUD long 2️⃣ EUR/NZD long Whatlese do we know? We know Crude OIL pumping due to risk-on in the market. It goes up as a pre-indication for inflation and a healthy economy. Who exports OIL? Ah yeah... CANADA. So if there is more demand in OIL and the market buys in CANADA investors have to exchange their currency into the Canadian Dollar. USD falls due to low interest-rates 👉 Canadian dollar moves up due to pumping OIL 👉 USD/CAD SHORT Just a few examples here how to think. Central-Banks are independed institutions and have the following task: 1️⃣ Provide economic growth 2️⃣ Price-Stabillity Central Banks aim for an Inflation of 2% a year (compared the year before) because they consider this as a healthy level. They basically define this as a fine line of "prices are not going crazy" and "companies make more money." A little bit of inflation, or higher prices increase earnings of companies that can as a result expand, offer more jobs etc. 👉 Which defines the first task economic growth. The problem is.. they can provide money to the market in case of fiscal support is needed, but they can`t take it back and SAY GUYS WE NEED OUR MONEY, its too much floating and inflation is too high. 1️⃣Healthy economy: Rising inflation and a growing economy "Rate hikes getting likely as economy doesn`t need fiscal support" 2️⃣Unhealthy economy: Stable inflation but a stagnation of the economy "Rate hikes getting less likely as economy needs fiscal support." Now we have a dilemma here..... 3️⃣ Disaster and current situation High inflation but a stagnation or even a slowdown in economy "Rate hikes are tricky as the economy needs fiscal support while inflation is already HIGH." Either price-stabillity or the economy suffers❗️ Now keep this in mind: Jerome Powell promised Biden to fight the inflation at all costs in order to get his second term in office. It is tricky to know what he is gonna say, but we know he promised it to the President. This is why the market is so shaky. The market hopes to see a dovish Jerome after the Sell-Off in stocks. At the same time the market knows we will see a year with rate-hikes. What do you think will be the best pair to trade after the FOMC?!
FX:SPX500Education
by Trading2ez
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