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Ulcer Index From ScratchHi, traders! Volatility is one of the most important parameters of the market. The measurement of it play a great role in technical analysis. Thus, it's kinda important to use tools that can tell you a lot about it. The Ulcer Index (UI) is a technical indicator that measures downside risk in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The indicator looks only at downside risk, not overall volatility. Other volatility measures, like standard deviation, treat up and down movement equally, but a trader typically does not mind upward movement; it is the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers, as the index's name suggests. The Ulcer Index is recommended as a measure of risk in various contexts where the standard deviation is usually used. The Ulcer Index can also be charted over time and used as a kind of technical analysis indicator, to show coins going into ulcer-forming territory, or to compare volatility in different coins. Watching for spikes in the Ulcer Index that are beyond "normal" can also be used to indicate times of excessive downside risk, which investors may wish to avoid by exiting long positions. DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
Education
by Skyrexio
1
How Cheese, Knives and Chocolate Will Make Solana to The MoonHi, traders! Let’s discuss some crypto news. As you know the fundamentals are essentially important in trading. Thus, we’ll try to speak about them more in future. From the latest news, Switzerland-based token issuer Digital Assets AG, or DAAG, has officially launched its stock-tokenization infrastructure on the Solana blockchain, offering users of the FTX trading platform a novel way for accessing traditional equity markets. During the initial rollout, FTX users who have completed Know Your Customer documentation will have access to 55 free-floating stocks, available 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, Digital Assets AG announced Thursday. That means users in permitted jurisdictions will be able to buy, sell and withdraw the assets at any time. Free-floating stocks are assets that have received regulatory approval to trade on tokenized platforms. As DAAG explained, they represent the number of shares of a given asset excluding locked-in shares, such as those held by company executives. Solana has received tremendous support from investors, venture capitalists and other market participants. The crypto startup recently raised $314 million from several high-profile investors to expedite the development of its high-performance blockchain. Andreessen Horowitz and Polychain Capital led the raise, with additional contributions from the likes of Alameda Research, Blockchange Ventures, CMS Holdings and CoinShares, among others. DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
by Skyrexio
2
🎓 EDU 6 of 20: What Market Indicators do I Need to Follow?Hi traders, it's time for a new part of our educational series. This series aims to equip new traders with all the necessary tools to trade the forex market. Most of these tools are also used by large market participants in their daily analysis, and for making trading decisions. Getting started with trading isn't easy, mostly because the internet lacks quality when it comes to trading education. Yes, there are some great posts out there, but how are you supposed to know where to find them, and how to distinguish bad trading practices from good ones? This is why I created this educational series, to equip you with the main tools used by institutional investors and banks in trading. Alright, let's move on with the sixth part: What Market Indicators do I Need to Follow? Capital chases yield. Investors will move their capital to markets that offer better yields, be it in the USA, Europe, or Asia. Central banks play a huge role in determining yields when they hike domestic interest rates to fight inflationary pressures (making the domestic currency relatively more attractive), lower yields to support economic activity (making the domestic currency relatively less attractive), or keeping rates unchanged. To recap how this works, visit my previous post (EDU 5 of 20). Central banks follow market indicators to determine what is the correct monetary policy for current economic conditions. Just like traders, central banks follow CPIs, PPIs, industrial output, PMIs, and labor market numbers, to name a few. And if central banks follow them, you should too. 1. CPIs - Since most central banks have a specific inflation target they want to reach, Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) are one of the most followed market indicators. CPIs measure the change in the prices of goods and services at the retail level over a specific period of time (usually one year), and compares that change to a base period (in the US, the base period is 1982-1984, where the value of the CPI is set to 100.) However, markets are mostly focused on the annual rate of change in the CPI. 2. PPIs - While the CPI measures the change in prices at the retail level, PPIs do the same at the manufacturing level. For example, the PPI would catch changes in the prices of manufacturing input, such as raw materials or labor. Since most of the price changes are spilled over to the retail level, traders often follow PPIs to get early clues on where the CPI could be heading. 3. PMIs - The Purchasing Managers Index is a major leading indicator that catches trends in the overall economic activity. It's based on a survey of purchasing managers in 19 industries, who are asked to assess the current conditions on five major survey areas: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and employment. Currencies often react with great volatility to PMI releases, making it an important market report to follow. 4. Labor Market Conditions - When talking about labor market conditions, we are actually referring to all the indicators which cover the labor market, including unemployment rates, unemployment claims, non-farm payrolls, average hourly wages, employment change, etc. Many central banks closely follow labor market numbers, as their mandate can also be to target full employment (in addition to an inflation target.) Labor market numbers can also provide some leading insights into the future economy, as the creation of many new jobs usually leads to higher economic output and GDP growth. Besides the mentioned reports, there are many more reports that can have a significant impact on the forex market. Some of them include retail sales and core retail sales, consumer confidence indices, GDP growth rates, etc. Check them out if you want to get a deeper understanding of the major market reports. What's important to mention is that markets are focused on the actual number vs the forecasted number. For example, if non-farm payrolls come in at 500k but expectations were set at 350k, this will usually lead to a strong positive reaction in the US dollar. Also, the reaction is stronger is the surprise comes in the direction of the central bank policy (for the example above, if the Fed is hawkish and the NFP comes in stronger, the reaction in the US dollar will be stronger than in the case of a dovish Fed and strong NFP.) If you find my educational series useful, please consider hitting the "LIKE" button to share the word. Thanks!
Education
by MujkanovicFX
Pitchfork and Its Modifications From ScratchHi, traders! Trading View gives us great opportunities to gain as much profit from analysis as it’s possible. Many tools indicators, including custom indicators let traders to extract all insights from the price action plot. However, many of us don’t know about very useful tools that TW gives us “from the box”. Well, today we’ll speak about pitchfork and its modifications. Pitchfork The technical indicator known as Andrews Pitchfork is not that well known and is rarely used by novice traders. However, it is a quick and easy way for traders to identify possible levels of support and resistance for price. It is created by placing three points at the end of previous trends and then drawing a line from the first point that runs through the midpoint of the other two points. The reason this indicator is called a "pitchfork" becomes apparent from the shape that is created in the chart. How to draw? Put the first point to the start of a new trend, second point on the next higher high, and the third to the lower low. Shiff Pitchfork But it’s good when we have no corrections. Try to draw pitchfork after it and you’ll fail. Fortunately, this problem has been solved with Shiff Pitchfork. It has the same properties like the Original one, but the “corrections bug” is fixed. How to draw? Put the first point to the start of correction (pump), second point on the next higher high/lower low, and the third to the lower low/higher high. Well, frankly speaking, the Original Pitchfork works well only on trend markets. For the corrections Shiff Pitchfork was invented. But what should we do with other cases? choppy market< for instance? Don’t worry, everything has been already invented. The Modified Shiff Pitchfork The Modified Shiff Pitchfork is heuristic above the Shiff pitchfork that specializes on sideways market movements. How to draw? Put the first point to the start of sideways movement, second point on the next higher high/lower low, and the third to the lower low/higher high. DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
BEducation
by Skyrexio
2
How To Tame A Reptile or Williams Alligator From ScratchHi, traders! Have you ever heard about Alligator? Not from Australia or America but Williams Alligator. Both Australian reptile and Williams ‘pet’ have some common – they all have Jaw, Teeth, and Lips. So what is Williams Alligator? As you know, you can get maximum profit during trend markets. You gonna enter to longs or shorts, to take some profit. It’s obvious that trading on choppy (sideways) market can be very dangerous for your funds. Thus, there’s the reasonable question, are you sure that the market has trend. Genius trader Bill Williams was concerned about the problem. That’s why he invented such pretty tool to define if market is trendy or choppy. It’s the first Alligator that’ll help you to earn money, but not spend them in boutiques. So, let’s speak about technical part. The Alligator indicator uses three smoothed moving averages(calculated with a simple moving average), set at 5, 8, and 13 periods, which are all Fibonacci numbers. The initial smoothed average is calculated with a simple moving average (SMA), adding additional smoothed averages that slow down indicator turns. The three moving averages comprise the Jaw, Teeth, and Lips of the Alligator, opening, and closing in reaction to evolving trends and trading ranges: 1. Jaw (blue line): Starts with the 13-bar SMMA and is smoothed by eight bars on subsequent values. 2. Teeth (red line): Starts with the eight-bar SMMA and is smoothed by five bars on subsequent values. 3. Lips (green line): Starts with the five-bar SMMA and smoothed by three bars on subsequent values. The indicator applies convergence-divergence relationships to build trading signals, with the Jaw making the slowest turns and the Lips making the fastest turns. The Lips crossing down through the other lines signals a short sale opportunity while crossing upward signals a buying opportunity. Williams refers to the downward cross as the alligator "sleeping" and the upward cross as the alligator "awakening." The three lines stretched apart and moving higher or lower denote trending periods in which long or short positions should be maintained and managed. This is referred to as the alligator "eating with mouth wide open." Indicator lines converging into narrow bands and shifting toward a horizontal direction denote periods in which the trend may be coming to an end, signaling the need for profit-taking and position realignment. This indicates the alligator is "sated." The indicator will givefalse positives when the three lines are crisscrossing each other repeatedly, due to choppy market conditions. According to Williams, the alligator is "sleeping" at this time. Remain on the sidelines until it wakes up again. This exposes a significant drawback of the indicator because many awakening signals within large ranges will fail, triggering whipsaws.
Education
by Skyrexio
3
Ultimate Oscillator From ScratchHi, traders! Oscillators are very important part of any trading strategy. It helps to find the momentum and gives rather reliable signals in conjunction with other indicators. Today we’ll speak about one of the most powerful oscillators – Ultimate Oscillator. Ultimate Oscillator uses the weighted average of three different timeframes and has less volatility and fewer trade signals compared to other oscillators that rely on a single timeframe. Buy and sell signals are generated following divergences. The Ultimately Oscillator generates fewer divergence signals than other oscillators due to its multi-timeframe construction. By using the weighted average of three different timeframes the indicator has less volatility and fewer trade signals compared to other oscillators that rely on a single timeframe. Buy and sell signals are generated following divergences. The Ultimately Oscillator generates fewer divergence signals than other oscillators due to its multi-timeframe construction. How to Calculate the Ultimate Oscillator -Calculate the Buying Pressure (BP) which is the close price of the period less the low of that period or prior close, whichever is lower. Record these values for each period as they will be summed up over the last seven, 14, and 28 periods to create BP Sum. -Calculate the True Range (TR) which is the current period's high or the prior close, whichever is higher, minus the lowest value of the current period's low or the prior close. Record these values for each period as they will be summed up over the last seven, 14, and 28 periods to create TR Sum. -Calculate Average7, 14, and 28 using the BP and TR Sums calculations from steps one and two. For example, the Average7 BP Sum is the calculated BP values added together for the last seven periods. -Calculate the Ultimate Oscillator using the Average7, 14, and 28 values. Average7 has a weight of four, Average14 has a weight of two, and Average28 has a weight of one. Sum the weights in the denominator (in this case, the sum is seven, or 4+2+1). -Multiply by 100 when other calculations are complete. UO= ×100 UO=Ultimate Oscillator How to use it? In order for the indicator to generate a buy signal, it's recommended a three-step approach. -First, a bullish divergence must form. This is when the price makes a lower low but the indicator is at a higher low. -Second, the first low in the divergence (the lower one) must have been below 30. This means the divergence started from oversold territory and is more likely to result in an upside price reversal. -Third, the Ultimate oscillator must rise above the divergence high. The divergence high is the high point between the two lows of the divergence. Three-step method for sell signals. -First, a bearish divergence must form. This is when the price makes a higher high but the indicator is at a lower high. -Second, the first high in the divergence (the higher one) must be above 70. This means the divergence started from overbought territory and is more likely to result in a downside price reversal. -Third, the Ultimate oscillator must drop below the divergence low. The divergence low is the low point between the two highs of the divergence.
Education
by Skyrexio
Forex Weekly Forecast: Jun 14 - 18thWelcome to the latest Forex Weekly Forecast. I analyze 18 pairs, and put them on my Watchlist. Check the timestamps for the ones that aren't on the Watchlist. Remember, just because they aren't setting up today, doesn't meant they won't be near an entry during the week! So stayed tuned for updates! 00:00 Intro 00:09 DXY 02:37 USDCAD 04:05 USDCHF 05:07 GBPUSD 06:42 GBPCHF 07:44 GBPCAD 09:45 EURUSD 11:21 EURJPY 14:25 EURCHF 16:01 EURNZD 17:15 AUDCHF 19:11 AUDNZD 20:41 CADCHF 22:37 CHFJPY 23:56 NZDUSD 25:13 NZDJPY 26:28 NZDCHF 29:01 US30 We are going to look into depth on the above forex markets, using top down analysis. If you have a question on any of the content, please leave a message in the comments section. For beginners, this is how you analyze forex markets, identify supply and demand zones, key levels of support and resistance, and look for swing trade setups. Likes, comments and subs are always welcome! Thank you for your support!
by RT_Money
What will happen to bitcoin ,short termWell, I am not a great fan of BTC ,but if BTC crosses the 40,0000 mark or holds it for sometime we can see it going to 50,000 for a short period of time . I honestly believe CRYPTO will not be or future money as simple as that . People don't want there $1 value to change so quickly , when they are shopping ( i.e., $1 to to be either $20 or $0.01 {OH MAN! , I cant buy this bread now} ) . Decentralized stuff is difficult to deal with . The person or group behind BTC is just playing around.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Nitish_816
2
Aroon From ScratchHi traders! Today we gonna tell you about one of the most interesting indicators. As you know, trend is based on price action. Everything on the market based on price action, LMAO. Thus, it’s considerably important to define and extract some hidden states, that can play a huge role in trend predicting. Aroon is one of this hidden-state finders. The Aroon indicator is a technical indicator that is used to identify trend changes in the pric, as well as the strength of that trend. In essence, the indicator measures the time between highs and the time between lows over a time period. The idea is that strong uptrends will regularly see new highs, and strong downtrends will regularly see new lows. The indicator signals when this is happening, and when it isn't. The indicator consists of the "Aroon up" line, which measures the strength of the uptrend, and the "Aroon down" line, which measures the strength of the downtrend. Formulas for the Aroon Indicator Aroon Up(orange)= (x-periods since last high in x period) /x*100 where x – number of periods. Aroon Down(blue)= (x-periods since last low in x period)/x*100 where x – number of periods. How to use it? We use it in two ways: crossovers and parallel state. When Aroon Up and Aroon Down draw a parallel channel, we can make a conclusion that market is choppy and it would be better to avoid entering. Crossovers can signal entry or exit points. Up crossing above Down can be a signal to buy. Down crossing below Up may be a signal to sell. When both indicators are below 50 it can signal that the price is consolidating. New highs or lows are not being created. Traders can watch for breakouts as well as the next Aroon crossover to signal which direction price is going. As for the parameters, we use on 15M timeframe Aroon with the length 10 on 4H. It gives us less signals, but they are very strong. You can tune it in depending on your purposes and goals of strategy.
Education
by Skyrexio
ATR From ScratchHi, traders! The volatility is one of the most important market indicator that could describe the instrument’s behavior. That’s why it’s deadly impossible to use it to predict the further price movements. But what is volatility? It’s the measure of price changing. The more volatility is, the more you can earn or lose, the price is prone to change. So, dear subscribers today we’ll speak about Average True Range (ATR), one of the most powerful indictors of volatility. Well, from the very beginning, let’s speak about True Range (TR) and understand how to calculate it. True range is maximum of pairwise absolute difference between high and low, open and close, maximum and minimum. TR=MAX(|high-low|,|high-close|,|low-close|) So, it shows us how much the instrument’s price has changed during the one bar. It’s Whereas the Average True Range is Average of TR during some period. ATR=sum(TRs of period)/length of period It’s considered to be rather informative, but it’s kinda difficult to make any decisions. For example, is you see on the chart above we have two coins: MAKER and Bitcoin. The definition of ATR of the first is bigger sometimes, but the real volatility (price change) of the second is much higher. Thus, we would advise you to use ATR Normalized, cause you can make it in percentage scale and considering any period you like to make it more representative and smart. The ATR may be used by market technicians to enter and exit trades, and is a useful tool to add to a trading system. It was created to allow traders to more accurately measure the daily volatility of an asset by using simple calculations. The indicator does not indicate the price direction; rather it is used primarily to measure volatility caused by limit up or down moves. The ATR is fairly simple to calculate and only needs historical price data. The ATR is commonly used as an exit method that can be applied no matter how the entry decision is made. One popular technique is known as the "chandelier exit". The chandelier exit places a trailing stop under the highest high the stock reached since you entered the trade. The distance between the highest high and the stop level is defined as some multiple times the ATR. 2 For example, we can subtract three times the value of the ATR from the highest high since we entered the trade. Also it can be used as the tool that can help you to choose tokens that suits your strategy. DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
Education
by Skyrexio
1
how to risk smartly? position sizing, risk n reward, SL n TP 👌Risk refers to the probability of a negative event happening in your activities; an event that goes contrary to your intended outcome. Risk is part and parcel of the cryptocurrency trade. It is the chance of an undesired outcome on the trade, which translates to making losses. For instance, a 50% risk on a short position simply means that there is a 50% probability that the Bitcoin price will rise, resulting in a loss on your part. Today, we take you through the simple rules to follow when managing risk in crypto trading. Types Of Risk The crypto trading world is exposed to four main types of financial risks: Credit Risk This risk affects crypto projects. It is the probability of the parties behind the crypto project failing to fulfill their due obligations. Credit risk is mostly attributed to theft and fraud in the crypto market. A good example is the hacking of Binance in 2018, which led to over $40 million loss. Legal Risk Legal risk refers to the probability of a negative event occurring with respect to regulatory rules. For instance, a ban on cryptocurrency trading in a specific country. A practical example of legal risk is when the states of Texas and North Carolina issued a cease-and-desist order to Bitconnect cryptocurrency exchange due to suspicion of fraud. Liquidity Risk Liquidity risk in respect to crypto trading refers to the chance of a trader being unable or incapacitated to convert their entire position to fiat currencies (USD, YEN, GBP) that they can use in their every-day spending. Market Risk Market risk refers to the chance of coin prices moving up or down contrary to your desire in an open position. Operational Risk Operational risk is the chance that a trader is unable to trade, deposit, or even withdraw money in their crypto wallets. Main Risk Management Strategies The rule of thumb in crypto trading is: “Do not risk more than you can afford to lose.” Given the gravity of risk in crypto trading, we generally advise traders to use not more than 10% of their budget or monthly revenue. Also, trading with borrowed money is not advisable as it puts them in a credit risk position. Risk management strategies can be broadly categorized into three: risk/reward ratio, position-sizing, as well as stop loss & take profits. 1. Position Sizing Position sizing dictates how many coins or tokens of cryptocurrency a trader is willing to buy. The probability of realizing great profits in crypto trading tempts traders to invest 30%, 50% or even 100% of their trading capital. However, this is a disruptive move that puts you at serious financial risks. The golden rule is: never put all your eggs in one basket. Here are three ways to achieve position sizing. Enter Amount vs Risk Amount This approach considers two different amounts. The first involves money you are willing to invest in every single deal. We advise traders to look at this amount as the size of each new order they take, regardless of its type. The second involves money at risk, i.e. the money that you stand to lose in case the trading fails. This is how you define your enter amount: A = ((Stack size * Risk per Trade) / (Entry Price – Stop Loss)) * Entry Price Let’s say we wish to purchase BTC with USDT with a target of $13,000. Our parameters would be: Stack Size: $5,000 Risk per Trade: 2% Entry Price: $11,500 Stop Loss: $10,500 Our enter amount would be: A= ((5,000 * 0.02) / (11,500 – 10,500)) * 11,500 = 1,150 The ideal amount to invest in this deal is $1,150 or 23%. However, due to our Stop Loss, we only risk 2% as it will stop the trade once it reaches the determined level. Risk trading in cryptocurrency Elder’s “Sharks” and “Piranhas” This concept of position sizing relates to diversifying your investments. Dr. Alexander Elder, who is credited with the concept, suggests two rules: Limiting every position to 2% risk. Elder compares risk to a shark bite. Sometimes you would wish to risk a huge amount, but the risk would be huge and catastrophic as a shark bite. Limiting trading sessions to 6% per session. In a losing streak, you may end up spending everything you own little by little. Elder compares this risk to a piranha attack, which takes small bites of its victim until it consumes it all. Following Elder’s sharks and piranhas approach results in no more than three open positions per 2% each or six ones per 1%. Limiting results in reverse compounding; losses get smaller and smaller with each subsequent loss you make. Kelly Criterion The Kelly criterion is a formula developed by John Larry Kelly in 1956. It is a position sizing approach that defines the percentage of capital to bet. It suits long-term trading. A = (Success % / Loss Ratio at Stop Loss) – ((1 – success %) / Profit Ratio at Take Profit) Using the previous example, the features would be: Stock size: $5,000 Invested Amount: $1,150 Success %: 60% Entry Price: $11,500 Stop Loss: $10,500 Loss Ratio: 1.10 Take Profits: $13,000 Our result would be: A = (0.6 / 1.10) – ((1 – 0.06) / 1.13) = 0.19 This means you should not risk more than 19% of the entire capital of $5,000 for you to arrive at the best possible outcome in a series of deals. 2. Risk/Reward Ratio The risk/reward ratio compares the actual level of risk with the potential returns. In trading, the riskier a position, the more profitable it can get. Understanding the risk /reward ratio enables you to know when to enter a trade and when it is unprofitable. The risk/reward ratio is calculated as follows: R = (Target Price – Entry Price) / (Entry Price – Stop Loss) From the previous illustration: Entry price: $11,500 Stop Loss: $10,500 Target price: $13,000 Our ratio would be: R = (13,000 – 11,500) / (11,500 – 10,500) = 1.5 or 1:1.5 A ratio of 1:1.5 is good. We advise traders not to trade with a ratio lower than 1:1. 3. Stop Loss + Take Profit Stop Loss refers to an executable order which closes an open position when a price decreases to a specific barrier. Take Profit, on the other hand, is an executable order that liquidates open orders when the prices rise to a certain level. Both are good approaches to managing risk. Stop Losses save you from trading in unprofitable deals while Take Profits let you get out of the trade before the market can turn against you. You can make use of Trailing Stop Losses and Take Profits which follow the rate’s changes automatically. Such a feature, however, isn’t available at the majority of crypto exchanges. Fortunately, with crypto terminals like Superorder, you can set your Trailing Stop Losses and Take Profits right from the terminal. Winning Strategies Accept Failures Risk is part and parcel of trading. Besides, we cannot eliminate it but only manage it. You should, therefore, accept your losses and rely on plan-based decision making to realize profits in future trades. Consider Fees New traders often do not know the fees that come along with trading. Such include withdrawal fees, leverage fees, etc. You should consider these in your risk management. Focus on the Win Rate Risks will always be there to discourage you from trading. However, focusing on the number of times you win helps to develop a positive attitude in trading. Measure Drawdown This refers to the total reduction of your initial funds after a series of losses. For instance, if you lost $1,000 from $5,000, your measure drawdown is 10%. The higher the amount, the more you would need to inject into a trade for it to recover. As Dr. Elder advised, stick to a 6% risk limit. Please click LIKE button and Appreciate my hard work. Must follow me for latest crypto real time updates. Thank you.
NYSE:TWTR
by BTC-fire
Mastering Elliott Wave AnalysisHi, traders! Today we gonna speak about Elliott wave principles. The Elliott wave principle is a form of technical analysis that finance traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), a professional accountant, discovered the underlying social principles and developed the analytical tools in the 1930s. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves , or simply waves. Elliott published his theory of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle in 1938, summarized it in a series of articles in Financial World magazine in 1939, and covered it most comprehensively in his final major work, Nature's Laws: The Secret of the Universe in 1946. Elliott stated that "because man is subject to rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore unattainable." The empirical validity of the Elliott wave principle remains the subject of debate.
BEducation
by Skyrexio
10
BTCUSD Bearish Diamond Pattern: is it a start of bearish market?What is a Diamond pattern? A diamond pattern is used for detecting reversals: there are two types of diamonds: Bullish diamond - can be found on downtrends and shows a possible reversal upward Bearish diamond - can be found on uptrends and usually signals for an upcoming major correction Once rightly identified, it is one of the most profitable patterns for using reversals for trading strategy. Diamond chart formation is a rare chart pattern that looks similar to a head and shoulders pattern with a V-shaped neckline. Diamond chart patterns usually happen at market tops. This pattern occurs when a strong up trending price shows a flattening sideways movement over a prolonged period of time that forms a diamond shape. Detecting reversals is one of the most profitable trading opportunities for technical traders. A successful trader combines these techniques with other technical indicators and other forms of technical analysis to maximize their odds of success. Does it mean we bearish market starts soon? Diamonds shows high probability of reversal only at long-term timeframes such as 1D and higher. Currently we detected the Diamond patter on 1H timeframe chart which has a small trend continuation probability. If you take a look at 1D timeframe chart there is an imperfect Diamond pattern formed on uptrend price action. Due to imperfections of the formation the probability of starting global bearish price action is low. However a downward cross of Stochastic Oscillator lines combined with Diamond chart pattern formation on 1D and 1H signals that correction is coming. Bitcoin can retrace to $47 865 level DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Skyrexio
13
Bitcoin AnalysisHi traders! Last days we could see lots of amazing things in the market like huge pump of ETH, x2 of Dogecoin and correction of BTC. Many people consider bear market is around the corner and the huge wave of corrections will wash away many all-time-highs and records. However, we find these point of view wrong. We are sure that the bull run will continue for significant period. So, let’s move from words to deeds. Crypto custodian company NYDIG started cooperating with fin-tech giant Fidelity National Information Services (FIS). That’ll give an opportunity to the clients of small American banks to buy, hold and sold BTC. That will greatly increase the volume and supply of BTC. Head of digital department of FIS Rob Li supposed that the big players like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America will follow the small banks. Speaking about technical aspects, we prepare some possible scenarios of future price action. We are sure, you are able to use them as efficient as possible and got the maximum profit. DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
B
by Skyrexio
Ethereum AnalysisHi traders! Ethereum has made new all-time high. It’s good news, but we are sure it is able to cost much more. Some reasons make us understand that ETH is one of the most important coins of future. The algorithms of ETH are strong and safe. Moreover, they are being updated very often. The last update has changed the ETH in the root. The consensus PoW (Proof-Of-Work) was changed to PoS(Proof-of-Stake). Thus, ETH network doesn’t need miners with powerful GPUs anymore. Performance of ETH is provided by ETH holders. The next update “London” (approximately July 2021) will add the innovative feature - after the trade part of Gas will be “burnt”. It’ll make the price action more stable and predictable. So, we've found the most probable scenarios for you. Have a look at them. DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
by Skyrexio
BEAM Indicator From ScratchHi, traders! BTC today makes many people nervous, especially freshmen. That's why we decided to tell you about one of the easiest to use indicators - BEAM. BEAM helps identifying times when buying and selling Bitcoin are the most probable to be profitable. It’s extremely easy to interpret and understand its signals. In general, BEAM divides the price of Bitcoin at any given moment to a moving average of past prices. This makes price trends more clearly visible. The BEAM parameters are easy to tune. You can adjust the cycle length, the asset divisor as well as buy and sell thresholds. There are three types of zones. A green buy zone indicates that it would be wise to buy. A red sell zone makes clear that selling might be a good idea. A gray hold zone signals that it is advisable to keep on holding even if the price already seems rather high. BEAM works with other crypto currencies that are at least 3-4 years old, because they are highly correlated with Bitcoin itself and follow Bitcoin’s cycle. The BEAM indicator is not meant to be used to make buy or sell decisions on its own. It should be used as one tool among many in a big arsenal of indicators and other types of signals. BEAM has no absolute predicting power. There is no 100% guarantee that it will still work in future. Indicators and models can only be constructed retroactive. As the future is not fixed, they always fail to work after some time. DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
Education
by Skyrexio
BTCUSDT Analysis UpdateHi, traders! Today we will tell you about the Bitcoin and give you our point of view with regards of this token. Well, we still bullish. We still believe that BTC is able to push the limits more and more and show the world the power of crypto. So, let’s go beyond words. Not so long ago Tesla sold 10% of the company’s BNC deposit. Some people found as an act of fear of Musk. However, let’s dig deeper. 10% is considered to be very small part of their BTC deposit. Moreover, we find it a way to gain money fast, because they need them to report to investors. As you see market has showed no reaction on it. Let’s have a look on the chart. At the first sight it seems to be choppy. However, we see a great support levels of previous price action demonstrated by Fiba Retracement levels and EMA. Thus, we are sure that probability of further growth is extremely high. Here are some scenarios of probable price action. Scenario A Short-term consolidation between 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels and further growth with mid-term consolidation in “golden pocket” (between 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels) with break out over the 0.618 and even higher. Scenario B Bears will have a small win and the price will go down to 0.382 and lower. On these levels lots of alerts are pointed, that’s why the price will anyway reject from these levels and pump. DISCLAMER : Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
by Skyrexio
Pancake Swap Is ready To BuyHi, traders! While BTC is moving up and recovering after a small fell, we gonna tell you about some interesting and perspective projects, which can probably help you to make x2,x5 or even more. One of them is PancakeSwap. What is PancakeSwap? PancakeSwap is a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange for swapping BEP-20 tokens. If you’re familiar with Uniswap or SushiSwap, then you’ll know how PancakeSwap works. Each works in almost exactly the same manner. The PancakeSwap exchange doesn’t use order books like traditional exchanges. Instead, it uses an automated market maker (AMM) model which matches buy and sell orders directly with others in a liquidity pool. User deposits maintain liquidity pools. By providing liquidity to such a pool, users can earn trading fees and liquidity provider (LP) tokens. LP tokes are redeemable for the initial capital deposited, plus any fees earned, minus any impermanent loss. Furthermore, LP tokens can then be staked, farmed, and traded! Cloning or copying open source code from a popular decentralized application (dApp) is not uncommon. Particularly in DeFi, many new projects are based on existing protocols, with tweaks made to the original code. Simply make a few adjustments to a popular open-source code, create a new token, name it after your favorite snack, and presto - you’ve got yourself a freshly baked DeFi clone! Regardless of whether you think cloning is a good thing or a bad thing, it happens a lot in crypto. For example, SushiSwap is a clone of Uniswap. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that PancakeSwap appears to work in a very similar way to SushiSwap, with a familiar layout and user interface. However, PancakeSwap is flipping the yield farming model on its head, introducing a range of new features that provide an all-in-one yield optimization platform built around the Pancake token (CAKE). Furthermore, PancakeSwap benefits from the security of Binance Smart Chain (BSC), which could help convert some DeFi skeptics. In September 2020, the Pancake token (CAKE) was launched on Binance Smart Chain (BSC). CAKE is a BSC-native BEP-20 token. The CAKE token has performed extremely well in 2021, showing an incredible price rally throughout February. The primary function of CAKE is to incentivize liquidity provision to the PancakeSwap platform. PancakeSwap vs. Uniswap vs. SushiSwap In today's cryptocurrency landscape, there are three major decentralized exchanges ruling the roost. • Uniswap — The original DeFi liquidity protocol built on Ethereum. Today's standard for easy cryptocurrency trading using ERC-20 tokens and mostly ETH pairs. • SushiSwap — A community-governed Uniswap fork that has evolved into a DeFi hub offering token swaps, farming, and crypto lending/borrowing. • PancakeSwap — Uniswap clone built on BSC to deliver fast and inexpensive trades using BEP-20 tokens and the BSC←→ETH bridge. While all three enable decentralized exchange, community governance, yield farming, and LP (liquidity provider) opportunities, only Sushi and PancakeSwap pay rewards back to token holders who stake their tokens. Technical As you can see on the chart, we have a strong up-trend with a great support. The consolidates in the most probable area with a low probability of down swings. Fiba extension levels and ALLIGATOR shows us a strong up-trend with reliable support Thus, we see these scenarios of future price action A – consolidation above median line and breaking out above B – consolidation in the pitchfork with medium volatility and breaking out above, too C – breaking out the fork below and choppy price action DISCLAMER : Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
by Skyrexio
TOP 5 Tools To TradeHi traders! Working process of any trader is usually related with usage of different tolls. These tools are invnted to make traders’ life easier. For instance, you shouldn’t just build lines of support and resistance by yourselves, just choose 3 main points and use Fib ExtensionMany of you asked us, what tools we usually use in our daily stuff. Well, we use many different indicators, oscillators and other tools like Fiba, Pivots and so one. Today, we’ll give TOP-5 tools, that’ll make your trading activity easier and more efficient. Fibonacci retracement Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate where support and resistance are likely to occur. They are based on Fibonacci numbers. Each level is associated with a percentage. The percentage is how much of a prior move the price has retraced. The Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. While not officially a Fibonacci ratio, 50% is also used. The indicator is useful because it can be drawn between any two significant price points, such as a high and a low. The indicator will then create the levels between those two points. Suppose the price of a stock rises $10 and then drops $2.36. In that case, it has retraced 23.6%, which is a Fibonacci number. Fibonacci numbers are found throughout nature. Therefore, many traders believe that these numbers also have relevance in financial markets. How to use? Put the first point to lower low, the second to the higher high or vice versa. Fibonacci extension Fibonacci extensions are a tool that traders can use to establish profit targets or estimate how far a price may travel after a retracement/pullback is finished. Extension levels are also possible areas where the price may reverse. Fibonacci extensions are a way to establish price targets or find projected areas of support or resistance when the price is moving into an area where other methods of finding support or resistance are not applicable or evident. To study it accurately, read our Fiba Extension From Scratch (link in the description). Pivot Point A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. The pivot point itself is simply the average of the intraday high and low, and the closing price from the previous trading day. In fact, price above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish trend, while price below the pivot point indicates bearish one. The pivot point is the basis for the indicator, but it also includes other support and resistance levels that are projected based on the pivot point calculation. All these levels help traders see where the price could experience support or resistance. Similarly, if the price moves through these levels it lets the trader know the price is trending in that direction. Commonly, traders use Pivot Points as support and resistance levels as well as stop-loss levels. In the combine with oscillators (MFI, OBV, etc.) and Fiba levels we invent efficient strategies. Ichimoku One of the most informative indicator in world of trading. It can give you both support/resistance levels and sell buy signals. Out crew uses it every day. However, many traders consider it rather difficult to interpret. If you want to know more about it and use it as efficient as it’s possible, check out our articles (link in description) Pitchfork Andrews' Pitchfork can be used by traders to establish profitable opportunities and swing possibilities. On a long-term basis, Pitchfork can be used to identify and gauge overall cycles that impact underlying spot activity. In general, traders will purchase the asset when the price falls near the support of either the center trendline or the lowest trendline. Conversely, they'll sell the asset when it approaches the resistance of either the center line or the highest trendline. Even though the center line can be used to identify areas where a security may find support or resistance, it is generally not as strong as the two outside lines. In practice, the levels identified by this indicator are very useful for identifying strategic positions for stop-loss orders. To apply the pitchfork, you should choose the pivot of “trend start” (A on the chart). Than, chose the significant maximum(B on the chart) and significant minimum. DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
Education
by Skyrexio
5
🎓 EDU 5 of 20: FUNDAMENTALS ARE THE HOLY GRAIL OF TRADINGHello traders! In the previous Educational Post (4 of 20) we learned what FIST (Fundamentals, Intermarket, Sentiment, Technicals) is about and why you need to use this trading framework in your trading. I strongly believe that incorporating a range of analytical disciplines returns better trading results than focusing only on one tool. This is how big players play the market, and this is how you should trade too - if you want to become a consistently profitable trader. Most retail traders put too much emphasis on technical analysis. The majority of traders even trade solely with technical tools. In an earlier post, we have covered why you shouldn't trade only on technicals , so this might be a good time to revisit that lesson and read it if you haven't already. Most retail traders will wait for a signal like a pullback, MA crossover, overbought/oversold RSI conditions, MACD, and follow candlestick patterns and chart patterns to enter into a trade. Guess what? That's an easy way to blow your trading account! If you look at your broker's homepage, you'll see a sentence stating how many retail traders lose money. I have yet to find a retail broker where less than 20-30% of traders are profitable. The rest, 70-80% of clients, lose money on a consistent basis. I bet that, of those who lose money, the majority use technical strategies and/or have poor risk management skills. Institutional traders don't open a trade based on MA crossovers or extreme RSI levels. They follow a range of fundamental signals, analyze correlations between different asset classes, and follow the general market sentiment. Technical analysis accounts for 5% of their work. Technical levels are only used to determine entry and exit points - ONLY after they already know in which direction they want to trade. Fundamental Analysis Unlike technical analysis which is based on the premise that history repeats itself, markets like to trend, and all available news is instantly discounted in the price, the fundamental analysis aims to explore the underlying factors of why a market is going up or down. Technical analysis is all about charts. Technicians are not interested in the reasons behind price movements, which often creates an environment where technicals alone produce fake signals. I bet many of you have seen that: a failed triangle breakout, a failed trendline breakout, or the RSI remaining in oversold conditions as the price continues to trade lower. Fundamental analysis can be grouped into two groups: macro fundamentals, and micro fundamentals. In trading, macro fundamentals refer to the bigger picture fundamentals: interest rates, economic growth, inflation rates, and labor market conditions. Micro fundamentals are more subtle, but can also have a large influence on the price. Those are comments by central bankers, news, market indicators (PMIs, CPIs...), political developments in a country, etc. Central Bank Meetings My students often ask me whether they should follow central bank meetings and press conferences. My answer: If you want to make money trading, then yes! Nothing has such a large impact on prices as central bank meetings and interest rate decisions. And if you do your homework, you can profit from those meetings most of the time. Follow press conferences that are scheduled shortly after the meeting and listen to the Q&A session, and read the entire meeting report once it's out. You'll find it astonishing how much you can learn from those reports - and how easy it can be to make money in the markets. There are eight major central banks in FX: US Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Canada (BoC), Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Create a bookmark for each of those central bank websites, and read their reports and articles at least once a week. I like to do it on weekends. You can even have very profitable trades after the Central Bank meeting is over and the market has already reacted to the news. Commercial banks and other sell-side institutions will often drain liquidity in the markets to purchase a currency at discount after a major news report or interest rate decision. If you know how to identify this liquidity drain, you'll be able to catch amazing trades in the future. Thanks for reading and stay tuned for Part 6: What Market Indicators do I Need to Follow?
Education
by MujkanovicFX