ARE YOU LOSING IN THE MARKET? THEN READ BELOW Losing is inevitable. To be a successful trader you must truly truly understand this. Look back at my analysis. I have both winners and losers and I absolutely love them both.
Why do i love my losses? Because I don’t see them as losses, I see them as lessons. Every set up that doesn’t go as I anticipated is crucial information that I must study and this is truly what has made me good technically speaking. I learn from my mistakes and I don’t repeat them.
Second most important fact is Risk Management which ALLOWS me to learn from my losses. If my trade goes bad and I lose 1% or 2% on a trade, I don’t feel bad , I simply move on to the next trade and take the information the market has given me and STUDY it. The moment I risk more than 2% and the trades goes bad is the moment my mental being shifts, the emotions start rolling in. I want to close but the trade is valid, I get scared, question why I didn’t risk less etc and I’m sure you can all relate to this. Once this happens, it’s very hard to study the losing trade because you now associate it with pain and you avoid looking back at it at all costs.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
1. To succeed you must fail, to succeed after failure, you must gain experience from your failures.
2. In order to gain experience form your failures, you must manage your risk, by managing your risk, you are controlling your emotions, by controlling your emotions you are allowing yourself to think analytically.
3. Trading is game of probabilities not guarantees. Every trade only has a 50% chance of winning.
Howtotrade
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 10Correlation:
Correlation is a key concept and can make the difference between both winning trades and losing trades as well as good trades becoming great trades.
As those who follow me know, I trade almost exclusively the GBP pairs. Ideally, we want to see all the pairs moving in the same direction. That is a great sign that not only will the trade be successful but that there will be a big move. If there is a correlated directional move, there is a high probability that it will be a big move day. When that happens, once the trade is 1xRisk, we can move the stop to flat and let it run to the profit target.
When the pairs are mixed, we have to be more cautious. If they are evenly split, 3 bullish and 3 bearish, we can take the first breakout trade, but not pullback trades. Once that trade is + 1xRisk, we can close ½ our position and move the stop to flat. This is how we make money on not so good days.
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this past week were great examples of correlated directional moves. While Thursday, was a split day where at the European open 3 of the GBP pairs were bullish and 3 were bearish. The GBP pairs sold off first allowing for a decent gain in GBPCHF and then rallied.
If you master Correlation, your trading will go to the next level.
I hope you enjoy this post post and find it helpful. I would appreciate if you "like" it and follow me.
Stay Green my Friends :)
Allen
I am now accepting “pre-order” commitments for my book. I am not asking for any money now. But for those who pre-order, they will receive a priority for one of the bonuses that I am providing. The cost of the book is $54.95 and will be available September 30. If you interested please send me an email to FXGold54@gmail.com
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 9 How many Trades do you need?
I am often asked or advised that I should post more trades and/or have a signal service. This brings me to how many trades do you need. Understand, that enjoying the lifestyle that trading affords is always something you want to strive for. Do you want to be strapped to your computer for 8-12 hours a day? where is the fun in that?
if you have read my trade set-ups they are all designed to be high probability set-ups with Good to great RRR. However, there are only so many of those per day and I prefer to take the very best set-up there are. I risk 2% of of my capital per trade, always looking for at least a 3-1 RRR (meaning I am risking $1 to make $3). Simple math, If i net 2 winning trades per week, that is a 12% gain !!!
As I often ask traders, "if you could make 10-12% per week but could only take 2 trades would you do it?" the answers always surprise me, from outright no, to yes but I would hate myself, to sure but i would trade on the side (point of question goes over head...lol). As a professional trader, your purpose is make Money, PERIOD!!! it is not to hit buttons.
when reviewing your trades, are there low probability set-ups that you could eliminate?
Are there trades where the RRR is less then 3-1, eliminate those ad see where you would be?
I hope you enjoy this post and find it helpful. I would appreciate if you "like" it and follow me :)
Stay Green my Friends :)
Allen
EURUSD - Supertrade 11 to 1 with scope to add positionsHello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
After the quick scalp on Friday, price action is cycling higher this afternoon
Multiple ways to trade - on the daily chart - you can enter on the break of the high
I am also looking to enter on the retrace overnight to see if the area I have shown in the picture holds as support and if it does I am in on Buy Limit orders.
This is with a double bottom looking to be printed and confirmed if the 1.1250 area is broken, however I am looking to get in at the bottom of the move and not at the top.
DuncanForex is now live
Head over for lots of content.
Thanks for looking
Duncan
3 RULES WHALES DON'T WANT YOU TO KNOW BEFORE DAY TRADING BITCOINWelcome back everybody,
Thanks for the 587 likes on my previous video. I hope i can help you out in this video as much as i possibly can as well.
In this video, we have talked about 3 RULES THAT YOU NEED TO KNOW BEFORE DAY TRADING BITCOIN.
The first rule is HAVING A TRADING PLAN . It is the most important one of all. If you don't have a plan, you will simply be eaten by Megalodons (Rational Investors/Traders). The plan must have trading setups (specific patterns on indicators or price/volume action, network data indicators such as Unique wallet addresses, or fundamental news like halving events, government policies). These setups will be your why to buy or sell. The trading plan should also have how much are you willing to risk and how you will manage this risk (stops/targets) This risk/reward ratio that you want to follow needs to be at least two. It can be smaller than two depending on what is your percent profitability with your trading setups.
The second rule is OBEYING YOUR PLAN . You always need to obey the plan to completely remove any and all emotions. This is another important rule because we are all emotional beings. We need to make sure how we will completely remove our emotions while trading or investing. Are you going to meditate before you start trading and have a check list before you put any trades? Are you going go heavy on the coffee 5 days a week to be completely focused on your plan and take a 2 day tolerance break? Are you going to go for a hike every morning before the market open?
Another important point with this rule is that "If you could find yourself another motivator other than money, you will be more successful." For me, i love to help people. I trade everyday to teach people, so that, they will NEVER experience the hard times that i have gone through when i first started trading. It might be something else for you, something that you can achieve with money. It should preferably be something you are really passionate about.
The third rule is RE-ADJUSTING YOUR PLAN . No one knows what is going to happen tomorrow. If the plan is not working, then, re-adjust your plan. You need to figure out where your trading plan had failed you. Was it your setups that did not work more than 50% of the time? Was it the risk/reward ratio? Did you fail to obey your trading plan? Did you drink coffee 7 days a week to trade 13 hours a day and became too emotional? You really need to figure the missing part here, then, re-adjust your trading plan.
I hope this was helpful and i really appreciate you all! [
Don't forget to drop a like if you enjoyed.
~Bo
Megalodon Trading
Enlightening the modern investors
BTCUSD Trading mid-term planHey to all.
If you are not an insider or you do not have insider information, you will not know exactly where and when would be the price reversal. But you can watch for the accumulation areas and see the reaction of the market to certain actions of the participants. The price includes everything - fundamental news, insiders, the market mood all participants, etc.
Today we decided to show you not just a forecast, but also how we trade on investors accounts.
In our trade, we use statistical analysis, the analysis of the market phases, the searching for liquidity zones and the analysis of the orders flow on a lower timeframe for an exact entry point. Ultimately, our trading based on condition "If - Then" .
When the price comes to the right level, we do not know in advance that there will be a rebound or a breakdown. And we look whether this will happen or not. If we saw a rebound, we enter the deal according to the rebound strategy, if breakdown/breakout, we enter the deal according the strategy based on the retest after truly the breakdown/breakout.
Statistically good strong levels do not break through the first time, but in order to understand which level is strong and which is weak, you need to collect statistics and make a backtests on history data.
On the chart we have indicated the levels where we will act depending on the price reaction.
At the moment the price is in the middle of the balance, which means you do not need to do anything, otherwise you will get a lot of unnecessary losses or a bad entry point.
We also wanted to note that at the moment it is better not to use quotes from Binance, because when they took a technical break for several hours, they stopped trading and after starts they simply glued quotes and some of the important exchange information was not displayed there.
You can compare Binance quotes and for example Coinbase and you will see everything for yourself.
----
Do not regard this forecast as a call for action! Think and make an informed decision on your own!
GBPUSD - Long = Compound Trade entries - Awesome 24% growthHello all - DuncanForex here with a continuation compound trade
With my first entry hitting TP this morning, I am looking to get more entries now on the next cycle higher
Trades 1, 2 and 3 entered this morning at 1.2070 along with GBPJPY
Trade 1 TP Hit
Trades 2 & 3 Stop loss is now at entry point of 1.2072 - to take into account swaps.
Entries, 4, 5 and 6 are on a buy stop at 1.2095 area
Take Profit targets I have added to this chart to show what I am aiming for overall
Trade number and reward vs risk ratio
1 = 2 to 1
2 = 3 to 1
3 = 4 to 1
4 = 3 to 1
5 = 5 to 1
6 = 7 to 1
Risk profile of 1% per trade
Overall Risk at any one time = 3% as first trade is already TP. trades 2 & 3 are at break even before second 3 trades opened.
Total capital growth if this plays out is
24%
Risking 6% overall of capital with only 3% of it at risk at any single time (3 trades opened with 1% each)
I hope you find it interesting
Head over to my website to join and learn how to do this yourself
Cheers
Duncan
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segement 8Trading before News
News is a fact of Forex trading and while their are several ways to trade the Actual release and it's aftermath, today I want to focus on trading before the News. Understand that the decision to enter the market before News is a conscious one and you don't have to do it. Prime examples are days where interest rates, for a currency you contemplating trading, or Non-Farm payroll are being released. if you intend on trading before news, you must determine whether you are going to stay in the trade during the release or get out. Personally, I usually do not trade on UK interest rate days because the market, at some point, tends to go flat ahead of the release. I certainly do not want to be in the market at the time of the release. The reason is simple, I have no control!!
My methodology is based upon high probability trades with tight stops (20-30 pips). Having a position on at the time of the release gives up both my probabilities and my stops.
there are 3 possible outcomes:
1) if the release comes out against me, I'm toast, I will take a hit 3 to 5 times what I plan on (as most of you know slippage will cause the stop to be disregarded and or executed at the extreme of the move).
2) it comes out as expected, the trade may be okay but the market may whipsaw and with an expected widening spread, might get taken out anyway.
3) if the news comes out in my favor, I may still get taken out by either a quick whipsaw or widening spread or a combination thereof.
How can we make an informed decision on whether to trade or not to trade. In the last segment I talked about documenting and reviewing your trades. I use my documented trades to make my decision. This week, the UK had News releases on Tuesday, Wednesday and Today. On prior occasions, my trades set-ups were not effected by UK employment and retail sales (Tuesday and today's releases) so I opted to trade on those 2 days. yesterday (Wednesday) UK CPI was being released and historically my trades set-ups did not work, so I did not trade yesterday. (which was a good decision).
The last thing you want to do is be in a trade ahead of news and "Hope" that the news bails you out. Far too often I have been bit by that bug. Please don't find yourself in that position.
Just wait their are plenty of opportunities. In the next segment I will discuss how many trades do you need.
I hope you enjoy this post and find it helpful. I would appreciate if you "like" it and follow me :)
Stay Green my Friends :)
Allen
AUD/JPY - Divergence Trade @ Support ZoneAUD/JPY has formed a bullish momentum divergence at a long-term support/resistance zone (defined by my algo - see Related Ideas for more info).
Short-term support is in the 71.50 area - so look for a retest of that level. It could be a good entry point.
Short-term resistance is in the 72.30 area. Once that level is cleared there's not much until we start hitting the long-term target zone of 74.40 - 74.80.
As always, it's best to wait for a favourable entry point. So a retest of the short-term support zone, or a breakthrough followed by retest of the short-term resistance are good R/R areas.
All the best.
DD
EUR/CAD - Juicy Little DivergenceWe've got a bit of a strange one here today...
EUR/CAD is shaping up for a near textbook bullish divergence pattern AND it's sitting on a long established S/R zone (defined by my S/R algo - see the Related Ideas).
Why is that strange? Well, basically because EUR is so weak at the moment. It's just broken multi-year lows, so unless that's a false breakout (which is a possibility, I guess), EUR should head lower. Generally I like to trade a strong/weak pair, and trading weak/weak pairs can result in some indecisive action (see basically all of 2019 for EUR/CAD).
Anyway, this is a textbook trade for me, so I'll be taking it - BUT, as always I'll be waiting for confirmation. We've already had a perfect touch (a few days ago) of the S/R zone just below current price, so all that's left is to wait for price confirmation. There's lots of things you can look for here, but in a nutshell you just want to see bullish strength.
I'll keep an eye on this one over the coming days and see how it develops.
Profit targets are a bit hard to define because EUR/CAD has been stuck in a sideways movement for months. So I'll be going with the next highest S/R zone at 1.53793 (always remember to leave a pretty wide buffer around these zones). That would be a 700+ pip movement, but would/will likely take months to play out. If that works for you, great. If not, potentially look at riding the zig zag upwards.
All the best!
DD
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segement 7Trade Review and Documenting
Most successful traders review and document their trades, unfortunately, alot of new traders do not. "what's done is done, can't change it...." while that is true, you can, and imho must , learn from them.
Each afternoon, whether I take a trade or not, I review the market and my potential set-ups, executions, and trade completions. I firmly believe reviewing your trades can help determine what went right, what went wrong and how to improve.
Moreover, I track 2 valuable pieces of information, for me at least, which is DD (drawdown) and PP (Pip potential).
If you follow my trades, you will know that I trade the same set-ups, over and over again...almost boring. You will have also noticed that I use a set pip stop loss and profit target. I can do this because I have documented, literally, thousands of my trades and I have determined statistically, where a trade reaches the point of no return. Understand that I risk 2% of my account on each trade. which means that the tighter my stop loss, the bigger my return will be. And as weird as it may sound, the occasional loss, using a tighter stop, does not matter as it easily covered by the successful trades.
The screenshot above is how I documented Monday's trade in GBPCHF. It was Type 1 trade that was triggered on the breakout. I used a 25 pip stoploss and risked 2% of my account. Once the trade was up +25, I closed 1/2 my position and moved my stop to flat (I actually got +27.4). By doing that, I banked a 1% gain for the day, with no further risk. The trade continued to go my way but found support, retraced slightly, and I closed the remaining 1/2 for +54.8 pips. Very conservative trade management for sure but I ended up banking 3% on this trade. I will take that any day of the week :)
I print the screenshot as well as save it under both trade type and in an all screenshot folder. I review the past week on Saturdays and a full month upon the month's conclusion. I also periodically review them to look for any trends or things that I may have missed.
Moreover I track trades in an excel spreedsheet, that I will attempt to attach a screenshot of. This allows me to compile and easily access my data.
I hope you enjoy this post and find it helpful. I would appreciate if you"like" it and follow me :)
Stay Green my Friends :)
Allen
GBPUSD - Potential Bullish Move tomorrow - Lets wait and seeHello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
Following todays price action, I think the market has printed a Bullish Gartley pattern on the 1 hour chart.
If the highs get broken , then my Buy stops will activate.
I am looking for more USD weakness , however looking at correlating pairs
USDCAD is very bullish and therefore could lead to more USD strength
However it is important to remember
Trading CAD, AUD and NZD against the USD is not the same as trading EUR, GBP and CHF as the first three are commodity driven currencies.
If GBPUSD gains strength and USDCAD gains strength - GBPCAD is going to fly higher tomorrow.
DuncanForex.com is now live
Thanks for looking at my trade idea
Duncan
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segement 6Measuring Success and Goals
As a Professional trader, you have 1 goal...Make money!!
That said, traders like to measure their success differently. Some use pips, some use wins v. losses, personally I use daily return. Understand my focus is on generating income and my mantra is "keep stacking positive days"
Imho, using pips to measure success can be misleading, I know of traders that will brag about making 300 pips, when they traded 10 micro lots for a 30 pip move. Obviously, the same could have been accomplished by trading 1 mini lot for the same 30 pips. Don't get me wrong, breaking your position down has a strategic purpose, if you have multiple profit targets or another reason to do so just understand that it was a 30 pip move and not a 300 pip move.
Win/Loss Ratio can also be deceiving. if you have an inverted (negative) Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) then win/loss ratio means nothing. You most often see this with advertisement's for EA's where the claim is 95% win rate, or something along those lines, and then you look at the trading history to find out the profit target are small 2-5 pips and the stops huge 75-100 pips. Again, don't get me wrong win/loss ratio is important as long as the RRR is not wildly inverted...(Scalpers for instance will often have a negative RRR but usually not more then 1-3).
Which brings me to daily % return, which, imho, is the best way to measure success. it is the the great equalizer. For example, if I told you Trader A makes, on average $500 a day, while Trader B makes $200, you might say that Trader A is a better Trader. However, if I then told you that Trader A has a $100K account while Trader B only has a 10K, that clearly changes things because now you realize that Trader A although making more money is only generating .5% per day while Trader B is generating 2%. Big difference.
Moving forward, Trader B's account will increase to the point where he will surpass Trader A's account. Hence why, imho, measuring success in daily, or weekly, % return is the best way.
All this leads me to Goals. I am often asked "what should my goals be" and this is the most loaded trading question there is. I say that because it does not matter what I can do, or what any other trader can do, it only matter what YOU can do at Your Current Skill Level . Psychology in trading is so important and permeates all aspects of it. Knowing what other traders can generate can be disheartening, even if, you are a good trader!
I feel the best goals a trader can have are 1) a daily/weekly % return that their current skill level permits and 2) constantly working to improve. It is number 2 that is most important. Their are so many ways to improve one's trading. More precise entries, better exits, smaller stops, larger profit targets, better trade selection, better money management, and the list goes on and on.
Reviewing and documenting your trades is so important in this process (and will be the topic of my next educational post). Today, for instance, I did not have a valid set-up, so I did not trade!
Understand I get up at 1;15 am est., everyday and start analyzing the market. I am up and I am ready to trade, however, their are times when it is better not to. As you know yesterday, we hit on 2 Solid trades, their is no reason to give any money back on a bad trade. I'm greedy that way...lol
I hope this post is informative and helps. If it does, I would appreciate if you "like" it and follow me :)
Stay Green my Friends:)
Allen
Gold - XAUUSD - 10 to 1 Supertrade - this will be a fast moveHello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
Last night - a higher low was printed on the 1 hour chart- which based on the 7am BST bullish pin bar candle will now start to cycle higher again.
Along with USDJPY to head far lower, with the retracement trendline break out, I do expect GOLD to get up to the 1450 area in the coming week
This move will be a great one , don't miss it.
I'll have 3 positions open so if they win, it'll be over 30 to 3 in terms of win vs risk.
The website is LIVE - please head over for a lot of free content
Thanks for looking
Duncan
Gold 15 minute Entry for Long Trend continuationHello all - DuncanForex with another trade idea
I don't normally trade this a low a time frame, however with the inside day printed last night and the downwards consolidation trend line just broken on the 5 minute chart
If this 15 minute candle's high is broken - I will be looking to add more positions with a buy stop
Due to the timeframe - I will be only risking 0.5% per trade.
DuncanForex.com is now live
Thanks for looking at my trade idea
Duncan
Trading Divergences - An Alternate View for New TradersTrading divergences is a very common technical analysis strategy, but it comes with one big problem: the most common divergences (not hidden) trade against the trend. This means that new traders can often get into trouble by constantly looking for, and trading, against a dominant trend.
Here's an idea to help you become more profitable over the long-term: identify divergences on your chosen momentum indicator, but only trade on trend continuation signals. I'm not saying you need to do this forever, as once you're experienced you can trade both pullbacks and continuations - but doing so requires multiple layers of confirmation, and a lot of knowledge/planning/experience.
By trading trend continuation signals after divergences, you're stacking the odds in your favour by going with the dominant trend. You're also training your eye to see divergences, and seeing how the markets react to divergences. For new traders this can be a valuable lesson in the power of momentum in financial markets.
So, what are trend continuation signals? It depends on your chosen momentum indicator, so I can only provide general ideas; you need to adapt things according to what you're using. My chart contains a custom momentum indicator, loosely based on the RSI. However, it's far smoother than the RSI, so I can reliably trade precise signals (e.g. for me, a cross of 0). On the RSI, you may choose something a bit further down the scale, for example, a cross below Oversold (20/30). If you're using a Stochastic indicator, you may trade a cross below Overbought (70/80). If you don't understand why I'm suggesting you trade signals at the opposite end of the scale for RSI and Stochastic, let me know.
Hopefully this all makes sense, and remember that it's just an idea if you're a new trader and struggling to make good trades.
Let me know if you have any queries.
DD
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segement 5Methodology v Strategy
Some traders use the words interchangeably, I do not.
A strategy is a set of conditions that signal you to enter the market, for example, A moving average crossover, RSI going into oversold/overbought and then reversing, Divergence, etc. and combinations thereof.
A Methodology, on the other hand, is a systematic approach to the market that a trader does on a daily basis. It is this process that leads to trade set-ups. The following is how I approach the market each day:
First, I do a top down analysis starting with the monthly moving to the daily and then the 60 min Timeframe.
Second, I do a strength and weakness analysis of each of the following currencies AUD, CAD,CHF, EUR,GBP,JPY,NZD and USD. From this I derive their relative strength from the previous day. This gives me a) A directional bias and b) the best pair to trade (Strongest v weakest)
Third, in the hour before the European open, I analyze the 60 min chart, primarily focusing on how they correlate with Ichimoku theory.
Fourth, I drop down to the 15 min chart, which what I trade off of. I look for top down alignment on each pair. The pair with the best alignment is the one I will trade.
Fifth, using Ichimoku and alignment, I either confirm, or change the directional bias from strength/weakness analysis.
Sixth, I mark the most recent Support/resistance, which I call the Asian box.
Seventh, From all of the above, I now have the best pair, direction and usually both a breakout entry or pullback entry.
Eighth, correlation, I look for all of the same currency to move together, For instance this morning, as shown in the chart above, only GBPAUD was a Buy breakout, while all the other GBP pairs were sells. Hence the reason I did not post or take the GBPAUD trade. (which would have gotten about 10 pips before crashing).
Ninth: Execute, collect your money, go to the Beach.
If you like this idea, please push like and follow me, it motivates me to post ideas more often.
Stay green my Friends
Allen
TESLA INC Potential Shorting Opportunity Coming UpTesla is a stock that has very big swings up and down, forming a ranges over a long period of time, each time the stock breaks through a KEY LEVEL in the market, it puts a retracement and creates a new range.
In April TESLA INC broke through the 250 level (Bottom range of the channel) potentially looking to create another rage.
Traders can look to take advantage of this by selling retracement back up towards 275 - 315 targeting 180 levels allowing your stops to be above the highs at 390-400 levels
When a stock moves side ways or in a range the best tool to have is the FIB RETRACEMENT (between 50%-60% retracement) to get back in to a trade