How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segement 7Trade Review and Documenting
Most successful traders review and document their trades, unfortunately, alot of new traders do not. "what's done is done, can't change it...." while that is true, you can, and imho must , learn from them.
Each afternoon, whether I take a trade or not, I review the market and my potential set-ups, executions, and trade completions. I firmly believe reviewing your trades can help determine what went right, what went wrong and how to improve.
Moreover, I track 2 valuable pieces of information, for me at least, which is DD (drawdown) and PP (Pip potential).
If you follow my trades, you will know that I trade the same set-ups, over and over again...almost boring. You will have also noticed that I use a set pip stop loss and profit target. I can do this because I have documented, literally, thousands of my trades and I have determined statistically, where a trade reaches the point of no return. Understand that I risk 2% of my account on each trade. which means that the tighter my stop loss, the bigger my return will be. And as weird as it may sound, the occasional loss, using a tighter stop, does not matter as it easily covered by the successful trades.
The screenshot above is how I documented Monday's trade in GBPCHF. It was Type 1 trade that was triggered on the breakout. I used a 25 pip stoploss and risked 2% of my account. Once the trade was up +25, I closed 1/2 my position and moved my stop to flat (I actually got +27.4). By doing that, I banked a 1% gain for the day, with no further risk. The trade continued to go my way but found support, retraced slightly, and I closed the remaining 1/2 for +54.8 pips. Very conservative trade management for sure but I ended up banking 3% on this trade. I will take that any day of the week :)
I print the screenshot as well as save it under both trade type and in an all screenshot folder. I review the past week on Saturdays and a full month upon the month's conclusion. I also periodically review them to look for any trends or things that I may have missed.
Moreover I track trades in an excel spreedsheet, that I will attempt to attach a screenshot of. This allows me to compile and easily access my data.
I hope you enjoy this post and find it helpful. I would appreciate if you"like" it and follow me :)
Stay Green my Friends :)
Allen
Howtotrade
GBPUSD - Potential Bullish Move tomorrow - Lets wait and seeHello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
Following todays price action, I think the market has printed a Bullish Gartley pattern on the 1 hour chart.
If the highs get broken , then my Buy stops will activate.
I am looking for more USD weakness , however looking at correlating pairs
USDCAD is very bullish and therefore could lead to more USD strength
However it is important to remember
Trading CAD, AUD and NZD against the USD is not the same as trading EUR, GBP and CHF as the first three are commodity driven currencies.
If GBPUSD gains strength and USDCAD gains strength - GBPCAD is going to fly higher tomorrow.
DuncanForex.com is now live
Thanks for looking at my trade idea
Duncan
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segement 6Measuring Success and Goals
As a Professional trader, you have 1 goal...Make money!!
That said, traders like to measure their success differently. Some use pips, some use wins v. losses, personally I use daily return. Understand my focus is on generating income and my mantra is "keep stacking positive days"
Imho, using pips to measure success can be misleading, I know of traders that will brag about making 300 pips, when they traded 10 micro lots for a 30 pip move. Obviously, the same could have been accomplished by trading 1 mini lot for the same 30 pips. Don't get me wrong, breaking your position down has a strategic purpose, if you have multiple profit targets or another reason to do so just understand that it was a 30 pip move and not a 300 pip move.
Win/Loss Ratio can also be deceiving. if you have an inverted (negative) Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) then win/loss ratio means nothing. You most often see this with advertisement's for EA's where the claim is 95% win rate, or something along those lines, and then you look at the trading history to find out the profit target are small 2-5 pips and the stops huge 75-100 pips. Again, don't get me wrong win/loss ratio is important as long as the RRR is not wildly inverted...(Scalpers for instance will often have a negative RRR but usually not more then 1-3).
Which brings me to daily % return, which, imho, is the best way to measure success. it is the the great equalizer. For example, if I told you Trader A makes, on average $500 a day, while Trader B makes $200, you might say that Trader A is a better Trader. However, if I then told you that Trader A has a $100K account while Trader B only has a 10K, that clearly changes things because now you realize that Trader A although making more money is only generating .5% per day while Trader B is generating 2%. Big difference.
Moving forward, Trader B's account will increase to the point where he will surpass Trader A's account. Hence why, imho, measuring success in daily, or weekly, % return is the best way.
All this leads me to Goals. I am often asked "what should my goals be" and this is the most loaded trading question there is. I say that because it does not matter what I can do, or what any other trader can do, it only matter what YOU can do at Your Current Skill Level . Psychology in trading is so important and permeates all aspects of it. Knowing what other traders can generate can be disheartening, even if, you are a good trader!
I feel the best goals a trader can have are 1) a daily/weekly % return that their current skill level permits and 2) constantly working to improve. It is number 2 that is most important. Their are so many ways to improve one's trading. More precise entries, better exits, smaller stops, larger profit targets, better trade selection, better money management, and the list goes on and on.
Reviewing and documenting your trades is so important in this process (and will be the topic of my next educational post). Today, for instance, I did not have a valid set-up, so I did not trade!
Understand I get up at 1;15 am est., everyday and start analyzing the market. I am up and I am ready to trade, however, their are times when it is better not to. As you know yesterday, we hit on 2 Solid trades, their is no reason to give any money back on a bad trade. I'm greedy that way...lol
I hope this post is informative and helps. If it does, I would appreciate if you "like" it and follow me :)
Stay Green my Friends:)
Allen
Gold - XAUUSD - 10 to 1 Supertrade - this will be a fast moveHello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
Last night - a higher low was printed on the 1 hour chart- which based on the 7am BST bullish pin bar candle will now start to cycle higher again.
Along with USDJPY to head far lower, with the retracement trendline break out, I do expect GOLD to get up to the 1450 area in the coming week
This move will be a great one , don't miss it.
I'll have 3 positions open so if they win, it'll be over 30 to 3 in terms of win vs risk.
The website is LIVE - please head over for a lot of free content
Thanks for looking
Duncan
Gold 15 minute Entry for Long Trend continuationHello all - DuncanForex with another trade idea
I don't normally trade this a low a time frame, however with the inside day printed last night and the downwards consolidation trend line just broken on the 5 minute chart
If this 15 minute candle's high is broken - I will be looking to add more positions with a buy stop
Due to the timeframe - I will be only risking 0.5% per trade.
DuncanForex.com is now live
Thanks for looking at my trade idea
Duncan
Trading Divergences - An Alternate View for New TradersTrading divergences is a very common technical analysis strategy, but it comes with one big problem: the most common divergences (not hidden) trade against the trend. This means that new traders can often get into trouble by constantly looking for, and trading, against a dominant trend.
Here's an idea to help you become more profitable over the long-term: identify divergences on your chosen momentum indicator, but only trade on trend continuation signals. I'm not saying you need to do this forever, as once you're experienced you can trade both pullbacks and continuations - but doing so requires multiple layers of confirmation, and a lot of knowledge/planning/experience.
By trading trend continuation signals after divergences, you're stacking the odds in your favour by going with the dominant trend. You're also training your eye to see divergences, and seeing how the markets react to divergences. For new traders this can be a valuable lesson in the power of momentum in financial markets.
So, what are trend continuation signals? It depends on your chosen momentum indicator, so I can only provide general ideas; you need to adapt things according to what you're using. My chart contains a custom momentum indicator, loosely based on the RSI. However, it's far smoother than the RSI, so I can reliably trade precise signals (e.g. for me, a cross of 0). On the RSI, you may choose something a bit further down the scale, for example, a cross below Oversold (20/30). If you're using a Stochastic indicator, you may trade a cross below Overbought (70/80). If you don't understand why I'm suggesting you trade signals at the opposite end of the scale for RSI and Stochastic, let me know.
Hopefully this all makes sense, and remember that it's just an idea if you're a new trader and struggling to make good trades.
Let me know if you have any queries.
DD
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segement 5Methodology v Strategy
Some traders use the words interchangeably, I do not.
A strategy is a set of conditions that signal you to enter the market, for example, A moving average crossover, RSI going into oversold/overbought and then reversing, Divergence, etc. and combinations thereof.
A Methodology, on the other hand, is a systematic approach to the market that a trader does on a daily basis. It is this process that leads to trade set-ups. The following is how I approach the market each day:
First, I do a top down analysis starting with the monthly moving to the daily and then the 60 min Timeframe.
Second, I do a strength and weakness analysis of each of the following currencies AUD, CAD,CHF, EUR,GBP,JPY,NZD and USD. From this I derive their relative strength from the previous day. This gives me a) A directional bias and b) the best pair to trade (Strongest v weakest)
Third, in the hour before the European open, I analyze the 60 min chart, primarily focusing on how they correlate with Ichimoku theory.
Fourth, I drop down to the 15 min chart, which what I trade off of. I look for top down alignment on each pair. The pair with the best alignment is the one I will trade.
Fifth, using Ichimoku and alignment, I either confirm, or change the directional bias from strength/weakness analysis.
Sixth, I mark the most recent Support/resistance, which I call the Asian box.
Seventh, From all of the above, I now have the best pair, direction and usually both a breakout entry or pullback entry.
Eighth, correlation, I look for all of the same currency to move together, For instance this morning, as shown in the chart above, only GBPAUD was a Buy breakout, while all the other GBP pairs were sells. Hence the reason I did not post or take the GBPAUD trade. (which would have gotten about 10 pips before crashing).
Ninth: Execute, collect your money, go to the Beach.
If you like this idea, please push like and follow me, it motivates me to post ideas more often.
Stay green my Friends
Allen
TESLA INC Potential Shorting Opportunity Coming UpTesla is a stock that has very big swings up and down, forming a ranges over a long period of time, each time the stock breaks through a KEY LEVEL in the market, it puts a retracement and creates a new range.
In April TESLA INC broke through the 250 level (Bottom range of the channel) potentially looking to create another rage.
Traders can look to take advantage of this by selling retracement back up towards 275 - 315 targeting 180 levels allowing your stops to be above the highs at 390-400 levels
When a stock moves side ways or in a range the best tool to have is the FIB RETRACEMENT (between 50%-60% retracement) to get back in to a trade
The Hardest Part of Trading (Not what you Think)Seeking More information - When first introduced to markets, every beginner immediately thinks he must learn the rules of the market in order to succeed. He initially believes there is a "holy grail" a system, a leader, or a mathematical equation like Fibonacci levels. He believes these will protect him in the market, and will lead him to a profit once he understands them.
The problem is, there are no set rules which work consistently in the market. If there were, the institutions and everyone else would simply use them. What would happen then? Well, there would be no one or institution to take the opposite trade, and the market would cease to exist altogether.
And so the new trader changes from one system to another, from one guru to another, and constantly thinks he must learn more information in order to succeed. What he believes to be preventing his success is a lack of knowledge, a lack of information. But you see, the more information you have does not necessarily lead to better decisions. There is a lot of evidence to support the contrary, and suggests that too many choices actually impair decision making skills.
On top of this, most of the information in the trading world is quite simply wrong. There are 10 x more scam artists who claim to "know" and will take your money to teach you how to trade than there are profitable traders. These people do not understand markets them selves, and cannot make money in the market, so instead they prey on new market entrants. This is the primary reason I started my trading website; to provide high value information at a low cost. And to give those who are serious about trading an actual chance to make it in the markets.
Dealing with Uncertainty - The reason most traders seek new information is because they are afraid of uncertainty and want certainty. They seek something to protect them in the market. Something to protect them from themselves. A system that will guarantee a profit. But there is no such thing. Markets constantly change and evolve through the market cycle. And there is no system that works across all three parts of the market cycle. The sooner you realize this, the closer you will be to making a profit.
It is very hard to learn how to deal with uncertainty. But you do it every day. When you wake up in the morning are you certain you will live through the end of the day? No, and you can never be completely certain of this. Certainty is an illusion. There is no certainty in this life. The only certainty is... uncertainty!
Patience and Discipline (Ability to Do Nothing) - Every profitable trader uses these two terms (patience and discipline) when asked how they are profitable. When a beginner hears this, he rarely understands what this means. Discipline means doing something even when you dont want to do it, or doing something you dont want to do. Patience means waiting for your turn, or waiting for something to happen.
In other words, when the time is not right you must do nothing. This stokes a fear in most people, especially in today's give me distractions, social media world. They say "Well what am i supposed to do if i am doing nothing?" Doing nothing seems contrary to getting what you want, getting somewhere. In and outside of the trading world everyone believes in order to be a "trader" you must trade - constantly. This is why most lose money. Because they do not understand that there is a time for doing nothing. And that time is most of the time!
See more on understanding markets (Price Action Trading) and yourself (Trading Psychology) at my website below.
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The Truth About Trading - how long to be profitable?Trading is hard work - But no one wants to hear that it is hard work. Everyone wants a short cut. A short cut does not exist. If it did - everyone would use it and the market would cease to exist. Everyone who starts out trading is lured in by the profit potential. You might get lucky and make a quick buck. But over time you soon realize that trading is a job, and a hard one at that. The markets offer the highest paid profession in the world - and it is the hardest profession. There are no set paths, clear schooling or achievements which put you into a position of earning a living.
This is an entirely different world. It is you and the market. You are responsible for the actions you make, and the repercussions or rewards which come with those actions. It takes a lot of time and effort on your part if you truly want to succeed long term in the markets. This does not just mean learning about the markets and how they operate. It also requires skills that no other job does - understanding and working on yourself internally.
Remain Humble - We all know of someone who brags about their position, their entry price or whatever. But there is something they likely do not have.. Profits. Ever wonder why the top traders dont brag or choose to talk about a position or how much they make? Because they are humble. If you do not remain humble when it comes to markets, they will humble you. If you are attached to your Ego, you will fail in the market, without question. The only question is how long will you survive?
How long does it take to be a Profitable Trader? Every beginner wants to know how long it will take before they can make a profit. This is a loaded question - with no answer. I am often asked how long until you knew you had it? Or how long does it take to become a profitable trader? People are confused by my answer when I say "you never have it, or anything." Even wildly profitable traders lose money, sometimes all of their money several times.
Trading is not about getting something, or somewhere. It is a journey, a dance. Do you dance or play the guitar to get to the end of the dance or end of the song? No, otherwise you would play or dance really fast! (Alan Watts). You play to play. You trade because you enjoy the act of trading. In other words the act of doing is the goal, not the end result. The market is a teacher who teaches you about your self. If you chose to ignore it and instead focus on what you want out of it; you probably wont get it. If instead you open yourself up, give in to it and what it is showing you; you just might get what you want.
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How to Be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 4Trade Identification
How many times have you "Missed" a trade. Once traders have a trading plan, they spend their time looking for set-ups. I would urge to take the next step which is Trade identification. I am not talking about clicking on a chart and seeing if your set-up is there. You want to be able to look and a chart and project what it can do and determine if market action will create a tradable set-up. This morning, as you can see on the chart above and my posted trade idea, when I was analyzing GBPNZD, I did not have a valid trade set-up. Specifically, although Price was below the Daily and 15 minute Kijun-Sen, as well as the cloud, it was above the 60 minute Kijun-Sen...which makes it a no-trade for me. However, I understand and recognized that if price closed below the 60 Kijun-Sen, I would have a valid Type 2 Set-up. I was able to post as such and better yet able to Bank some profit :)
Most traders study price action but they do not forward think what the market can do. Thinking about what the market can do (up, down, sideways), and then applying that to your trading methodology to determine trading opportunities will, imho, greatly enhance your trading skills and you will enjoy watching the market play out the way you predicted (and so will your Bank account)
I Hope this helps, stay Green my Friends
Allen
PS If you like this education material, please push like and follow me, so i will post more :)
Trading To Win "Those who lose - trade not to lose. Those who are successful - trade to Win."
Losing Vs Winning
Most traders are more focused on not losing than they are on winning. Do you understand what this means? This means you are acting not in your best interest, but against your self. By focusing on how much you can or might lose, or on not losing, you increase the likelihood of making mistakes which ultimately lead to a losing traders equation, and a negative equity curve.
Profitable traders do not care about losing. They understand it is part of winning. They focus on winning. What is the best move in this moment? Should I get out or continue to hold based on what the market is telling me? Winning traders accept the risk totally and completely; before getting into the trade. In other words, they have already lost what is on the line. Therefore they act in their own best interest, not based on their thoughts about what they could lose, but based on what the market is telling them to do in this moment.
Other than this psychological difference, here are a few other key components on How to Trade To Win.
Defined Edge - Every trader who is making money in the market has some form of edge which he employs. Even if his edge is purely intuitive. This is extreme and rare however, and most traders have clearly defined their edge and will only trade that edge. This removes randomness. Many beginners think they are going to study the market and be able to trade the market no matter what it is doing (trade intuitively). This is simply not the case for most. The purpose of studying the market is to identify opportunities in form of an edge. An edge is a setup or context which repeats itself over time. It might occur once a day, once a week, or once a month. It does not matter. All that matters is that you only trade your clearly defined edge, and leave the randomness behind.
For more information, you can read about the edge I use in every market I trade. We also describe how you can develop your own edge, and trade it in any market.
Stop Doing, Relax Efforts - If you are losing in the market, chances are you are doing too much. Many beginners, and even experienced traders think they must be trading in order to be a successful trader. This leads to random trading, over trading, and mistakes which compound themselves. You end up digging a hole, and instead of looking for a way out, you look for a different shovel.
The harder you try to make a profit, the more you do, the more actions you make, and the more you lose. The market rewards those who are observant, disciplined, and most importantly patient. The market takes from those who try too hard, and do too much. If you dont believe me, try as hard as you can to make money, and see how you do!
By relaxing your efforts, you relax your mind. In turn relax your actions and decision making. You do not have to trade every day to be a profitable trader. It sounds paradoxical doesn't it? How can I make money trading if I dont trade? By only trading when it is appropriate like when your edge is present, you better your odds of success.
Profitable trading does not come from trading constantly. Profitable trading comes from the act of non-doing, and out of a state of emptiness. Profitable trading is effortless, it comes out of waiting for just the right moment before taking action. And then waiting some more while the market proves you right or wrong. Profitable trading is not forced; it just happens.
Active VS Passive Trading -
This is very similar to the previous topic. Active trading is a trader who is constantly in the market, trading whatever he see's or feels right. This trader is often wrong, and when he is right he makes the mistake of exiting too early due to fear. This leads to a negative traders equation as he continues to struggle to do the right thing. An Active Trader mentality is one which does not believe in "non-doing." He believes he must, and can, do something. He is afraid of missing out and is often swayed by thoughts and emotions. So he continues trading never looking back, and at the end of the month cannot figure out why his account is in the red.
A Passive Trader is the opposite. He passes on more trades than he takes. He does not care about what he misses out on. He only cares about what he takes and the actions he makes in the market. He does not force trades, he just watches the market until he knows what to do. Or he waits and waits until his edge finally sets up. He is passive in his efforts, rather than active. He does not care if he doesn't trade today, this week, or even this month. Trading is not what is important to him; winning is. He knows that profits come from sitting, waiting. Because he is willing to wait, he is peaceful. And profits continue to come into his account, effortlessly.
For more information on developing this type of mentality, see below. We also detail how to understand markets through price action, how to create, define, and employ an edge, and how to develop your traders mentality to succeed in markets.
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The Advantages of Technical Analysis (Price Action)Technical Analysis (AKA Price Action)
Technical analysis is the understanding and observing of markets through the only thing that matters; price. Prices generate similar patterns over time, in every market. A single price chart contains more information than you would ever imagine at first glance. Everything you need to know about any company, or market is on the chart in front of you. The current price is what the true value of the market is, regardless of news, indicators, or anything else.
The Advantages of Technical Analysis (Price Action)
No News - Everything you need to know is on the chart in front of you. Completely disregard all news and outside information. All news is already built into the current price. The price action of the market is all you need to know. Once you understand how institutions operate, you can follow them.
No indicators . All indicators are a derivative of price. For example a Fibonacci level. Every price on a chart is a Fibonacci level of some other price on the chart. Although they appear to work, these levels do not work because of Fibonacci. But instead due to the traders equation, which is the mathematical formula institutions use to enter and manage trades.
Clearly define support and resistance. You can see on a chart where prices are likely to do something. These are "Key entry points" or "Buy and Sell Zones."
Clearly define risk and edge. With technical trading, you have the ability to define your risk before getting into a trade. If the market does not do what you expected, and instead goes beyond your stop, you exit. Without needing to wonder about why this happened, or constantly observing the news.
Identify the strongest markets without relying on outside information like news, indicators, someone else, or a "tip." Become independent and trade for your self.
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Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF)Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF)
There are generally only 2-5 strong trend days a month. The majority of trading days are some form of trading range days, either within a range or a weak channel which reverses and forms a trading range. On strong trend days the market offers what most traders want - a high probability of a large reward, with a tolerable risk. Usually the risk feels greater (and often is) on a strong trend day because there is a sense of urgency, and the bars are often bigger than normal.
On trading range days the bars tend to be smaller, offering what appears to be a lower reward, but there are many more failures and reversals. This makes it very difficult to identify a good setup, and even when there is one the market does not make it very far before there is an opposite reversal. This lures unsuspecting traders in, who continue fighting the market taking every trade or only the losers. This type of market is like a boa constrictor. The more you fight, the more you struggle, the tighter its grip and the harder it is to overcome the draw downs and emotional fatigue.
Because these types of days are hard to trade and do not offer what I want (a good chance at a large reward), I choose to sit these days out. Instead, I wait for a strong trend day, and then continue to wait some more for a pullback and my edge. Does this mean I miss out on some good moves? Sure. But I do not care. I trade to win, not to trade for fun. It does not matter what I miss, it only matters what I take and the actions I make in the market.
So how does a trader know if the day is a trading range day or likely to become a strong trend day and should be traded? In order to help guide you, here are some common characteristics of a trend day.
"......"
After the above has been identified - it is still better to wait for a pullback and an edge like a "......."
This increases the likelihood of a good trade with a strong traders equation. It also helps decrease stress of prices going against the position as it often does when you just enter at the market or without an edge. Of course, waiting is not easy. Just like Tom Petty said "Waiting is the hardest part!"
Does this mean you are less likely to lose? Usually, but not always. Even with trend trades fail, although less often. It is absolutely possible to lose money selling in a bear trend or vice versa. The key is to continue onward, and enter the next with trend trade if there is one. If not, or it also fails, prices are more than likely in a trading range and you just haven't yet realized it. If this is the case, it is often better to stop trading and wait for a strong trend day, rather than continuing to fight the market when it is not offering what you expected.
**These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and long term investing.
"..." = withheld material from original post (members only material).
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Day Trading Trend or Trading Range? Can be applied to investingIn the previous article we discussed only trading on strong trend days or strong markets. We also identified what increases the likelihood of a day (or market) becoming a strong trend. As said before, there are only a handful of strong days a month (or only a few strong markets at any given time). Because of this, it is just as important to identify and understand when a market is likely not a trend and more likely a trading range.
Within the first hour or two of the open (when day trading), it is often obvious if the day will likely become a trend day or a trading range. Once the market has been identified as likely a trading range, it is unlikely to become a trend day as the market tends to continue what it has been doing. In this case it is more likely to continue to have heavy two sided trading and less likely to convert into a strong and healthy trend.
But wait - most channels are some form of trading range right? Yes. This is a form of slanted trading range, or a trending trading range. This is where the market is technically in a trend but it is very weak and likely to reverse at any time. In fact, by the close it will likely reverse and the trend is unlikely to remain intact.
Characteristics of a Trading Range Day
"............"
So if most days are not trend days and are instead some sort of trading range, cant a day trader use this information to his advantage? Of course, if it aligns with your trading style or method. But you must understand that you are not likely to win on many trades, or win a large reward. Instead most trades even strong ones, only go for 1X the risk. On top of that there are many trades to take, most of which fail. This makes it difficult to remain focused and continue trading without emotions and without missing the trades you need to win to recover losses.
What about only taking strong trades ".......?" That is a reasonable thing to do, but the probability is still often lower and the reward is as well. And on these days most stop order entries fail, resulting in repeated failures. This is a "............." If not, you will likely get stopped out just before prices go your direction! Or the market will only go in your favor temporarily before stopping you out.
This makes trading difficult for beginners and even for those with experience. However most do not realize they should simply remove themselves from the market during these times. Instead they continue to trade as they think they should, and continue to grow losses, making it harder to recover even on a good trading day.
"I do not like to trade when the market is likely to reverse at any time. I only like to trade when the market is not likely to reverse at all." - Josh Ridenour
**These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and even long term investing.
"..." = withheld material from original post (members only material).
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