Best Price Action Pattern For GOLD Trend Following Trading
This bullish pattern is very powerful .
Being spotted on a daily/4h/1h, any time frame, it will help you to accurately predict a strong bullish movement on Gold .
In this article, I will teach you to identify a buying volumes accumulation on Gold chart and as a bonus, I will show you how I predicted a recent bullish rally with this price action pattern.
The initial point of this pattern will be a completion point of a strong bullish impulse.
At some moment, the price finds a strong horizontal resistance, stops growing and retraces.
The second point of the pattern will be a completion of a retracement.
It should strictly be a higher low - it should be higher than the low of an initial bullish impulse.
After a retracement, the price should return to a horizontal resistance and set an equal high , that will be the third point of the pattern.
Then, the price should retrace AT LEAST one more time from a horizontal resistance and set a new higher low.
After that, the price should set one more equal high.
3 equal highs and 2 higher lows will compose a bullish accumulation pattern.
Please, note, that the price may easily set more equal highs and more consequent new higher lows and keep the pattern valid.
Above is the example of a bullish accumulation pattern on Gold on an hourly time frame. The price set 3 equal highs and 3 consequent higher lows.
This pattern will signify the weakness of sellers and the accumulation of buying volumes.
The point is that each consequent bearish price movement from a resistance is weaker than a previous one. It means that fewer sellers are selling from the resistance and more buyers start buying, not letting sellers go lower.
In our example, we can clearly see the consequent weakening, bearish price movements.
This pattern indicates a highly probable breakout attempt of the resistance. A candle close above that provides a strong bullish signal.
The broken resistance will turn into support and will provide a safe point to buy the market from.
In our example, the market broke the underlined horizontal resistance and closed above that. It indicates the completion of a bullish accumulation and a highly probable bullish trend continuation.
You can see that Gold retested a broken structure and then a strong bullish wave initiated.
In a strong bullish market that we currently contemplation on Gold, this bullish pattern will provide a lot of profitable trading opportunities.
No matter whether you are scalping, day trading or swing trading Gold, this bullish accumulation pattern will help you to predict long-term, mid-term and short-term bullish movements.
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How to Find Key Levels on Gold XAUUSD Chart Easily
In this short article, you will learn how to find powerful levels on a gold chart.
I will explain to you what is a key level, how to apply it in trading. We will discuss key levels and different time frames, valid and invalid key levels. I will share with you a lot of useful trading tips.
First, let's start with a definition of a key level.
Key level is a single important historic price level on the chart,
from where a significant price movement initiated.
Usually, key levels are based on the edges of candlestick wicks.
Look at Gold chart on a 4H time frame.
I underlined a key level. You can see how strong was a bullish reaction to that. The price tested that level, bounced up and formed a long wick.
Key levels that are above current prices will be called resistances .
We will assume that sellers are placing their selling orders there.
Above is the example of a key resistance on Gold on an hourly time frame.
The price tested 2479 level, dropped rapidly and formed a long wick.
From a key resistance level, a bearish movement is expected.
Key levels that are below current prices will be called supports.
We will assume that buyers are placing their buying orders there.
That is the example of a key support level on Gold chart on a daily.
From a key support level a bullish movement is expected.
Key levels that are lying close to each other will compose support and resistance clusters.
Look at 2 key support levels on Gold on a 4H time frame.
These 2 levels are lying very close to each other and compose a support cluster.
3 key resistance above will compose a resistance cluster on Gold on a daily time frame, because these levels lye close to each other.
With time, the market tends to break key levels.
If the price violated a key support level and closes below that, it turns into a resistance level.
Look at a breakout of key support on an hourly time frame on Gold chart.
After a candle close below that, the broken key level turned into resistance.
If the price violates a key resistance level and closes above that, it turns into a support level.
Above is a recently broken horizontal resistance on Gold on a 4H time frame. After a breakout, that key level turned into support.
Key levels tend to lose their significance with time.
Key level that is broken by the buyers and the sellers or vice versa loses the status of a key level.
The underlined level was a significant resistance in the past.
However, the market stopped respecting this level and it lost its importance.
Remember that you can find key levels on any time frame.
But key levels are not equal in their significance.
Key levels that are spotted on higher time frame will be stronger than key levels that are spotted on lower time frames.
On the chart on the left, I underlined key support and resistance levels on a daily time frame on Gold.
While on the right, I market key support and resistance levels on a 4H time frame.
Daily structures will be considered to be more significant structures.
Hence, the market reaction to such structures tend to be stronger.
In comparison to support and resistance areas,
key levels provide the safest points to look for a trading opportunity from.
Once you spotted a confirmation after a test of a key level,
simply set your stop loss below a support or above a resistance.
You will have a very good reward to risk ratio.
Key levels play a crucial role in technical analysis of Gold.
No matter whether you are day trader, scalper, swing trader or investor, key levels is the first thing that you should always start your analysis from.
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Learn Supply and Demand Zones in Gold Trading
In this article, I will teach you how to identify supply and demand zones on Gold chart easily.
You will learn what are supply and demand zones and how to apply it in Gold trading.
In order to identify supply and demand zones on Gold chart, the first thing that you should do is to execute a complete structure analysis.
You should identify horizontal structures: support and resistance levels/zones; vertical structures - trend lines.
That's how a complete support and resistance analysis should look.
On a daily time frame, I have underlined all significant horizontal and vertical structures.
First, let's look for demand zones.
A demand zone is a specific area on a price chart that combines multiple key structure supports: horizontal or vertical ones.
Buying orders of the market participants will be placed within that entire area.
Our first demand zone will be based on a Horizontal Support 1 and a Vertical Support 1. A trend line and a horizontal support compose an expanding area.
We will call such an area a demand zone, simply because we assume that buying volumes will accumulate within that entire zone. And lower the price will move inside that area, more buying orders will become active.
Our second demand zone will be based on Horizontal Support 3/4/5.
All these structures are lying very close to each other. Some supports even have common boundaries.
These supports will compose a demand zone , a wide horizontal area where buying orders will be placed.
Vertical Support 2 is lying very closely to our Demand Zone 2.
A horizontal demand zone and a trend line will compose and expanding demand zone.
Now let's discuss supply zones.
A supply zone is a specific area on a price chart that combines multiple key structure resistances: horizontal or vertical ones.
Selling orders of the market participants will be placed within that entire area.
There is one supply zone on our Gold price chart. It will be based on a Horizontal Resistance 1 and Vertical Resistance 1.
Both structures are lying very close to each other.
We will assume that selling orders will be placed throughout that entire area and the higher the price moves within that, the more selling orders will become active.
Remember that you can identify Supply and Demand Zones on Gold on any time frame.
A bullish movement and a bullish reaction will be expected from a Demand Zone.
While a bearish movement and a bearish reaction will be expected from a Supply Zone.
Because Supply and Demand Zones are relatively large areas, it is very important to analyze a price action within these zones before you place a trade.
Thank you for reading!
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3 Technical Analysis Tools to Identify Resistance Levels on GOLD
How to trade Gold when it is constantly setting new all-time highs?
When Gold is trading beyond historical levels, technical analysis can help you to identify the next potentially strong resistance levels.
In this article, I will teach you the only 3 technical analysis tools you need to find the next key resistances and predict future correctional movements on Gold chart.
Tool 1 - Trend Line
The first technical analysis tool that will help you to identify a potentially strong resistance is a trend line based on previous highs.
Simply analyze the previous historic highs and try to find a trend line that was respected by the market at least 3 times in the past.
It means that such a trend line should be based at least on 3 historic highs.
Look at that rising trend line on Gold on a daily time frame. It is based on 3 historic highs, and it can be a potentially strong resistance.
Tool 2 - Psychological Levels
The second technical analysis tool is psychological levels.
These levels are based on round, whole numbers.
In our example, the closest psychological level is 2500 level. This level is based on round numbers, it is a multiple of 500 and 100.
It can compose a potentially strong resistance cluster.
Tool 3 - Fibonacci Levels
The third technical analysis tool is Fibonacci extension and confluence.
In order to identify a potentially strong resistance with Fibonacci extension, you should identify at least 3 last bullish impulses/waves.
Above is the example of 3 significant impulse legs on Gold chart on a daily.
Draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on these 3 impulse legs.
Here are important Extension levels to consider:
-1.272
-1.414
- 1.618
Above, you can see how I draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on all the impulse legs that we identified.
Your task is to identify the point where the extension levels of 3 impulses match in one point. Such a point will be called confluence zone.
This confluence zone will be the next potentially strong resistance.
These 3 technical tools helped us to identify the resistances beyond all historical levels easily.
Remember that there is no 100% guarantee that all the resistances that we spotted will be respected by the market.
For that reason, you should strictly analyze a price action and a reaction of the price to these levels before you open a short trade.
Alternatively, remember that these resistances can be applied as the targets for long trades.
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What is Structure Mapping in Gold Trading XAUUSD?
Structure mapping is essential for day trading, scalping and swing trading gold.
It is applied for trend analysis, pattern recognition, reversal and trend-following trading.
In this article, I will teach you how to execute structure mapping on Gold chart and how to apply that for making accurate predictions and forecasts.
Take notes and let's get started.
Let's discuss first, what is structure mapping?
With structure mapping, we perceive the price chart as the set of impulse and retracement legs.
Structure mapping can be executed on any time frame and on any financial market.
Look at a Gold chart on a 4H time frame. What I did, I underlined significant price movements.
Each point where every leg of a movement completes will have a specific name and meaning.
On a gold chart, I underlined all such points.
These points are very important because it determines the market trend and show the patterns.
When you execute structure mapping, the first thing that you should start with the identification of a starting point - the initial point of analysis.
On a price chart, such a point should be the highest high that you see or the lowest low.
If you start structure mapping with a high, that high will be called Initial High.
A completion point of a bearish movement from the Initial High will be called Lower Low LL.
A bullish movement that completes BELOW the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Lower High LH.
A bullish movement that completes on the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Equal High.
A bullish movement that completes above the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Higher High HH.
If you start with the low, such point will be called Initial Low.
A completion point of a bullish movement from the Initial Low will be called Higher High HH.
A bearish movement that completes ABOVE the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Higher Low HL.
A bearish movement that completes on the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Equal Low.
A bearish movement that completes below the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Lower Low LL.
Look how I executed structure mapping on Gold chart.
Starting with the lowest low, I underlined all significant price movements and its lows and highs.
You should learn to recognize these points because it is the foundation of gold structure mapping.
Combinations of these points will be applied for the identification of the market trend, trend reversal and patterns.
According to the rules, 2 lower lows and a lower high between them are enough to confirm that the market is trading in a bearish trend.
While 2 higher highs and a higher low between them confirm that the trend is bullish .
In a bullish trend, a bullish violation of the level of the last Higher High will be called a Break of Structure BoS. That event signifies the strength of the buyers and a bullish trend continuation.
A bearish violation of the level of the last Higher Low will be called Change of Character CHoCH . It will mean the violation of a current bullish trend.
In a bearish trend, a bearish violation of the level of the last Lower Low will be called a Break of Structure BoS . It is an important event that signifies the strength of the sellers and a bearish trend continuation.
While a bullish violation of the level of the last lower high will be called Change of Character CHoCH. That even will signify a violation of a bearish trend.
That's how a complete structure mapping should look on Gold chart.
With the identification of the legs of the move, highs and lows, BoS and ChoCh you can clearly understand what is happening with the market.
Gold was trading in a bearish trend. Once the level of our Initial Low was tested, the market started a correctional movement and started to trade in a bullish trend.
Once some important resistance was reached, the market reversed. We saw a confirmed CHoCH and the market returned to a bearish trend.
Structure mapping is the foundation of technical analysis. It is the basis of various trading strategies and trading styles. It is the first thing that you should start your trading education with.
I hope that my guide helped you to understand how to execute structure mapping in Gold trading.
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Best Lot Size For Scalping, Day Trading, Swing Trading GOLD
What is the best lot size for scalping, day trading, swing trading Gold XAUUSD?
In the today's article, I will explain to you how to calculate a lot size for trading Gold for any trading strategy and trading style.
As the example, I will measure lot sizes for 500$, 1000$, 10000$ XAUUSD trading accounts.
Scalping Gold
For scalping Gold, traders commonly apply 5m/15m time frames.
In order to calculate the lot size for 5 minutes time frame trading, you will need to back test your trading strategy and find at least 5 trades that meet the rules of your trading strategy.
But remember that the more trades you will back test, the better and the safer lot size you will calculate.
You will need to underline the entry point and a stop loss for each trade.
Then you will need to measure stop loss value of every trade in pips.
Then, find the trade with the biggest stop loss in pips.
In our example, the biggest stop loss is 353 pips.
Open a position size calculator for Gold.
As an example, we will apply some free position size calculator.
Fill all the inputs.
As a risk ratio, input 2%.
Our best lot size for scalping Gold on 5 minutes time frame will be:
0.03 lot with 500$ trading account.
0.06 lot with 1000$ trading account.
0.57 lot with 10000$ trading account.
With such a lot size, your potential risk will not exceed 2% of your trading account balance and the average risk will be close to 1%.
For scalping Gold on 15 minutes time frame, find at least 5 trades based on your trading strategy rules.
The biggest stop loss in 600 pips.
Please, note that the higher is the time frame, the bigger are the stop losses in pips. It means that higher time frame trading requires bigger account balance than lower time frame trading.
Apply XAUUSD position size calculator to measure a lot size for 15m trading.
Our best lot size for scalping Gold on 15 minutes time frame will be:
0.02 lot with 500$ trading account.
0.03 lot with 1000$ trading account.
0.33 lot with 10000$ trading account.
Day Trading Gold
Common time frame for day trading Gold are 30M and 1H.
Find at least 5 trading setups on 30 minutes time frame and measure stop loss in pips.
The biggest stop loss in our example is 997 pips.
According to XAUUSD position size calculator,
best lot size for day trading Gold on 30 minutes time frame will be:
0.01 lot with 500$ trading account.
0.02 lot with 1000$ trading account.
0.2 lot with 10000$ trading account.
The same logic will be applied on an hourly time frame.
Among 5 trading setups in the example above, the biggest stop loss is 1500 pips.
500$ trading account will not be enough to control risks below 2%.
You will need at least 1000$ for day trading Gold on an hourly time frame with such stop losses.
Using Gold position size calculator,
here are the best lot sizes for trading on 1H:
0.01 lot with 1000$ trading account.
0.13 lot with 10000$ trading account.
Swing Trading Gold
The main time frames for swing trading gold are 4H and Daily.
In our example, the biggest stop loss is 2800 pips.
1000$ account will not be enough for taking such a trade with 2% risk.
Taking the trade with minimal 0.01 lot, the risk will be 28$ or 2.8% of 1000.
Using XAUUSD lot size calculator, the best lot size for swing trading on a 4H will be:
0.07 lot with 10000$ trading account.
Before you start trading on a real account, you should know exactly your risks in pips. Knowing the biggest stop loss will help you to carefully measure the safest lot size for your trading style.
Make sure that you have sufficient balance to not exceed 2% risk per trade and analyze as many past trading setups as possible.
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Profitable Gold Price Action Strategy For Beginners
To trade this Gold price action strategy, you need to learn just 2 simple things:
support and resistance levels identification
a couple of bullish and bearish price action patterns.
In this article, I will share with you a complete guide for Gold trading with price action and reveal the best patterns for XAUUSD.
Step 1
Your First task will be to execute complete structure analysis on a daily time frame.
It means that you should identify all vertical and horizontal supports and resistances.
From structure supports, we will look for buying opportunities.
From structure resistances, we will look for selling the market.
Above, you can see how a complete Gold support and resistance analysis should look.
Step 2
Patiently wait for the test of one of these structures.
In the example above, we see a test of Support.
Step 3
Your next task will be to look for a price action pattern on an hourly time frame on one of these structures.
You should look for a bullish pattern after a test of a structure support.
You should look for a bearish pattern after a test of a structure resistance.
Here is the list of classic bullish patterns that you should look for:
falling wedge,
bullish flag,
double bottom,
triple bottom,
inverted head & shoulders pattern,
cup & handle,
ascending triangle.
Once you identified a bullish pattern, simply wait for a signal -
with horizontal patterns like a double bottom or cup & handle you should wait for a bullish breakout of its neckline - an hourly candle close above.
With vertical patterns like a bullish flag or a falling wedge, you should look for a bullish breakout of its trend line - and hourly candle close above.
Here is the list of classic bearish patterns that you should look for:
rising wedge,
bearish flag,
double top,
triple top,
head & shoulders pattern,
inverted cup & handle,
descending triangle.
Once you identified a bearish pattern, simply wait for a signal -
with horizontal patterns like a double top or inverted cup & handle you should wait for a bearish breakout of its neckline - an hourly candle close below.
With vertical patterns like a bearish flag or a rising wedge, you should look for a
bearish breakout of its trend line - and hourly candle close below.
Sometimes there will be the situation when you will encounter multiple patterns. The rule is that the more - the better.
Above, we can see 2 bullish patterns on an hourly time frame, after a test of a key daily support on Gold: bullish flag pattern and cup & handle.
The price broke the resistance line of the flag and a neckline of a cup & handle, giving us a strong bullish signal.
Step 4
Open a trading position.
Once you spotted a bearish pattern after a test of a key daily resistance, and a signal - a bearish breakout of a neckline or a trend line, sell Gold on a retest of a broken neckline/trend line.
Stop loss will lie above the highs of the patterns.
Take profit will be the closest 4H support.
Once you spotted a bullish pattern after a test of a key daily support, and a signal - a bullish breakout of a neckline or a trend line, buy Gold on a retest of a broken neckline/trend line.
Stop loss will lie below the lows of the pattern.
Take profit will be the closest 4H resistance.
In our example, a long position was opened on Gold on a retest of a broken neckline of a cup & handle formation. Stop loss lies below the lows, TP based on a 4H resistance.
After some time, the price reached the target!
This Gold price action strategy is simple and very profitable. Try this strategy by your own and good luck in trading Gold!
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Best Trend Following Strategies for Gold. XAUUSD Day Trading
The recent bull run on Gold is a perfect example of a strong trending market. For traders, such sentiment always provides very profitable trading opportunities.
In this article, I will share with you 3 best trend-following strategies for day trading Gold that showed extremely high performance this year.
So what I did, I back tested 4H/1H time frame since the middle of February when the bull market started.
I tested various strategies: price action, SMC, multiple indicators, candlestick patterns ; and I was looking for the ones that showed the highest accuracy and profitability.
1. Moving Averages Crossover
The first strategy that showed a very high performance was based on a crossover of 2 moving averages.
Exponential MA with 30 length.
Simple MA with 9 length.
For entry signal, Simple MA should cross Exponential MA from the downside and a candle should close above both MAs'.
Stop loss will be below the closest horizontal support.
The setup is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss.
13 setups we spotted.
9 of them were profitable.
Total winning rate is 69%.
2. Trend-Following Patterns
The second strategy that showed a very high performance was based on classic price action patterns.
I was looking for bullish patterns like bullish flag, falling wedge, horizontal range, double bottom, head and shoulders, ascending triangle, cup & handle.
Bullish confirmation was a breakout and a candle close above a neckline of the pattern.
The pattern is considered to be losing if after the breakout of the neckline, the price dropped below its lows.
The pattern is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss.
From 14th of February to 8th of April, I found 37 bullish patterns.
According to the rules that I described above, 31 pattern turned out to be profitable.
That gives 83% winning rate.
3. Break of Structure (BoS)
The Break of Structure strategy is very old and based on breakouts of current highs.
In a bullish trend, after the price violates the levels of a current Higher High HH, a bullish continuation is expected.
A long trade is opened after the candle closes above HH or on a retest.
With such a strategy, Stop Loss is lying below the last Higher Low HL.
The setup is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss
For the same period, I identified 21 Breaks of Structure.
According to the rules, 18 setups were profitable.
Total win rate is 85%.
Remember that you should not overestimate the performance of these strategies. They work perfectly only in times of a strong bullish market. Such periods are extremely rare.
However, once you see a strong bullish season, these strategies will help you to get maximum from it.
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GOLD Trading: 8 Mistakes Traders MUST Avoid in a Bull Market
The unstoppable uptrend on Gold may cause irrational and very costly decisions . For the past 6 months, we've seen an unprecedented surge, with new highs being set almost daily.
In this article, we will discuss critical mistakes that traders often make in the midst of such a bullish run and explore the strategies to maximize your gains.
1. Technical Indicators Lie
Always remember that technical indicators that measure the momentum or strength of a market trend, that show the overbought and oversold conditions, fail miserably in strong bullish or bearish rallies.
I am talking about such indicators as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving average convergence/divergence, Stochastic, etc. The fact that one of these indicators show overbought condition or even a bullish divergence most of the time will be a false signal.
Above is the example of an overbought RSI on Gold chart on a daily.
After the market became overbought, it went 1000 pips higher before the first pullback.
2. It is Never too High
When the market starts setting new all-time highs, people typically start saying that the price is already "too high" and start closing their long positions or even open short positions.
Remember, that the notion of too high is very subjective.
Look at a bullish rally on Gold in 2020.
I well remember that when the market updated a yearly high in April,
People start staying that it is already "too high".
However, the market kept rallying for 4 consequent months, constantly updating the highs.
Such a market behavior may persist for a significant period of time, be prepared for that.
3. Beware of Overconfidence
Even though bullish rallies may be long, always remember that they can not last forever.
At some moment, correction or even bearish reversal will occur.
For that reason, open long positions carefully, setting realistic targets.
4. Protect Your Gains and Maximize Your Profits
When the market is trading in the uncharted territory, it is almost impossible to predict where it will find the resistance. With a take profit level, you may close the trade too soon.
If you see that the market is driven by euphoria and keeps setting new all-time highs, remove take profit and apply a trailing stop instead.
Keep that below the recent supports, use ATR or some other classic technical tool.
That will help you to benefit from the entire rally.
5. DON'T SELL BULLISH RALLY
When the market is driven by greed, euphoria or fear, never go against the market. The chance that you will accurately predict the turning point is close to 0.
6. Beware of Lower Time Frame Bearish Patterns
In a strong bullish trend, classic bearish reversal pattern have low accuracy, especially on minutes time frames.
Look at a sequence of double tops on 15 minutes time frame.
These patterns are a great example of manipulations and how smart money induce retail traders to start shorting.
In a such a strong bullish trend, the only strategy to rely on is trend-following trading.
7. Do Not Rely On News
In times of strong bullish/bearish rallies,
the data in economic calendar and important news releases stop giving the reliable signals.
In times of bulls/bearish runs, emotions become the main driver of the markets, not the fundamental data.
8. If You Missed It, Let It Go
I can imagine, how terrible you may feel yourself if you did not manage to buy Gold on a good price. It's sad, and it is painful to watch how the market goes higher and higher without you.
But always remember a simple rule: if you missed the rally, let it go. With each new high that the market sets, your potential gains drop dramatically.
I hope that these tips will help you not get burned while Gold is on fire.
Stay calm and patient, and do not let your emotions intervene.
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Technical Analysis DOES NOT WORK in GOLD Trading
Does technical analysis really work in Gold trading?
In this article, we will discuss whether the traditional, classic methods of technical analysis: support and resistance, breakouts, patterns can be reliable in this specific market.
We will explore the dynamics of Gold prices so far this year and discuss the most efficient way to trade Gold.
So if you are a gold trader or simple interested in the market analysis, you should not miss this eye-opening discussion!
First, let's discuss how Gold market behaves from the beginning of the year from technical analysis perspective.
Gold started this year in a strong bullish trend, the market opened after setting a new higher high on a daily the second of January.
After a formation of a higher high, the market became overbought and a correctional movement initiated. The price formed a bullish flag pattern and reached the level of the last higher low - a very important support.
After the test of structure, the price bounced and violated a resistance line of a flag with a strong bullish candle.
From the technical perspective, it was a very strong trend-following signal and a bullish continuation was anticipated.
However, it turned out that it was a false signal, and instead of going higher, the market dropped, setting a new lower low.
Why this false signal is so important is that the breakouts, key levels and price action analysis are the most reliable on a daily time frame.
Such a strong combination: bullish trend, bullish pattern, key support; has a very high accuracy on a daily.
That was the first time this year, when technical analysis on a daily was completely screwed .
It felt like the market was turning bearish.
The price violated a level of the higher low, setting a new lower low.
For Smart Money traders, it is a very important event that is called a Change of Character. It strongly confirms a bearish reversal on the market.
One more bearish confirmation that I spotted was a completed head and shoulders pattern formation with a confirmed violation of its neckline. That signal also confirms a bearish reversal.
And again, these 2 bearish confirmations were the false signals.
The price went back above the neckline and a bullish movement initiated.
This time, a classic price action pattern did not work , and smart money concepts gave a false signal.
Then I spotted a very bullish signal - the price violated a major falling trend line and closed above that.
It clearly indicated that the market was returning to a global bullish trend.
And again, that signal was completely false.
And the price dropped.
Trend line breakout in the direction of the trend - a classic trend-following confirmation did not work.
Then we saw 2 strong bearish signals: a bearish breakout of a rising trend line and a key horizontal support with a high momentum bearish candle. It felt like now it confirms that the market is bearish and it should drop lower to the closest key support.
And again, technicals failed miserably and after a retest of a broken horizontal structure and a trend line, the price just went higher completely neglecting them
From the beginning of the year, technical analysis: key levels, patterns, smart money, breakouts do not work on a daily.
All the signals that were spotted so far failed.
If you just started trading, you may easily come to the conclusion that technical analysis does not make any sense on Gold.
And you will be completely right, in that period it does not work at all.
I am trading Gold and Forex for more than 9 years, and year after year I noticed that there always are the periods when some techniques, some strategies do not work. Sometimes these periods are very short, but some time they can be quite long.
The only proven way to overcome such periods is consistency and proper risk management .
Risking a tiny portion of your trading account per trade, you will be able to survive the stubborn market.
The market always returns to normal conditions and starts respecting the technicals again. However, no one knows when.
There is a famous quote by John Keynes:
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you stay solvent""
And only proper risk management will keep you solvent longer than the market stays irrational.
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Learn Best Lot Size for Gold Trading (XAUUSD)
If you trade Gold with fix lot, I prepared for you a simple manual how to calculate the best lot size for your XAUUSD trading account.
Step 1
Find at least the last 10 trades that you took on Gold.
Step 2
Measure stop losses of all these trades in pips
Step 3
Find the trade with the biggest stop loss
In our example, the biggest stop loss is 680 pips
Step 4
Open position size calculator for XAUUSD
Step 5
Input your account size, 1,5% as the risk ratio.
In "stop loss in pips" field, write down the pip value of your biggest stop loss - 680 pips in our example.
Press, calculate.
For our example, the best lot size for Gold will be 0.22.
The idea is that your maximum loss should not exceed 1,5% of your account balance, while the average loss will be around 1%.
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How to Analyze Daily Time Frame on Gold. 5 Important Things
There are 5 important things that you should analyze on Gold on a daily time frame to accurately predict long term, midterm and short term movements.
In this article, I will share with you a step-by-step guide for daily time frame analysis that you can apply on Gold or any other financial instrument.
1 - Identify the market trend
When you analyze a daily time frame, you should identify long term, midterm and short term market trends.
Long-term trend is based on the analysis of one year long price action.
In the example above, Gold is trading in a long term bullish trend because the price keeps setting new higher high and new higher lows during the year.
Midterm trend is based on the analysis of a price action for the last 4–5 months.
Above, we can clearly see that a mid-term trend is bullish because again, the price sets new higher highs and higher lows over time.
Short-term trend is based on the analysis of price movements for the last 2 months.
Short-term price action is also bullish on Gold, with a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
According to the trend analysis, long-term, mid-term and short-term trends are bullish.
2 - Identify the directional bias
The directional bias defines a highly probable future direction on the market.
In our example, we can anticipate that Gold will keep growing among all the dimensions: long-term, mid-term and short-term.
3 - Execute structure analysis
Identify important historic horizontal and vertical structures.
That will be the points from where you should look for trading opportunities.
When you analyze key levels, identify the structures that are lying close to the current price levels.
Make sure that all the structures that you spotted were respected by the market in the past.
4 - Look for price action patterns
Price action patterns are the language of the market.
Proper identification of the patters will help you correctly understand the intentions of the market participants.
You can see that a bearish breakout of a rising channel triggered a correctional movement on the market.
Gold started to fall steadily within a bullish flag pattern and after it tested a key support, the price violated the resistance of the flag.
5 - Analyze candlesticks
Candlestick patterns can provide extra clues and confirmations.
You can see that the market formed multiple rejections from key support, an inside bar formation and bullish engulfing candle.
Violation of the inside bar to the upside with a strong bullish candle is an important bullish signal.
Combining trend analysis, structure analysis, price action and candlestick analysis, and you can make predictions and look for trading opportunities.
You can also make your analysis even more sophisticated, for example, analyzing fundamental analysis or applying technical indicators.
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Gold xauusd intraday signal 15-09-23R3 LRS 1921 R2 MRS 1913 R1 HRS 1910
S1 HRB 1908 S2 MRB 1903 S3 LRB 1900
SELL> An immediate sell area is starting from 1910 where 61.8/Sma44 is aligned till 1913 78.6%/SMC areaHowever a very strong sell position is at 1921 where H1 sma200 is moving provided D1 Sma200 is just above it at 1922
BUY> Price has already taken support from 1908 a virtual support area for two days and also 50% fibo level. However if rejected from 1910 then it may fall towards 0.0%/1900 where it was rejected twice. So again on confirm rejection, a buy opportunity is there.
FOLLOW UPD1 Sma200 acted as support for few days and now at resistance 1922W1 Sma44 1910.50 is the SNR for the dayMN 38.2%/1903 Macro Fibo at strong Support
OBSERVATIONS:Above 1918-23 we are bullish and below 1898-1903 is bearish. Between this block, both Buy and Sell are equally attractive.
HOW TO BUY & SELL GOLD : Part1🏅 CFDS VS ETFS 🏅
➡️ GOLD ETFS (Right Chart)
ETFS PHYSICAL GOLD (ASX:GOLD) offers low-cost access to physical gold via the stock exchange and avoids the need for investors to personally store their own bullion.
Each GOLD unit comes with an entitlement to an amount of "physical bullion". This means : Real Gold, Real Bars.
⬅️ GOLD CFDS (Left Chart)
CFDs on GOLD US$/OZ (TVC:GOLD) (OANDA:XAUUSD)
CFD stands for Contracts for Difference, with the difference being between where you enter a trade and where you exit. Simply put, when the position is closed, you’ll receive the profit or incur the loss on that difference. When you trade a CFD you’re speculating on the movement of the price only, rather than traditional stocks where you purchase a physical asset. You do not ever own any real gold bars.
🤓 CFD TRADE EXAMPLE
The price of gold is measured by its weight. Therefore, the price shows how much it costs for one ounce of gold in US dollars. For example, if the gold (XAUUSD) price is $1600.00, it means an ounce of gold is traded at US$1600.00. Similarly, the price of silver is its price per ounce in USD. If the silver (XAGUSD) price is 28.00, it means that an ounce of silver is traded at US$28.00.
If you have bought gold for $1600, you do not have an ounce of gold that you can hold, but you rather have the obligation to buy XAU at US$1600. When you close your position, you sell the XAU and close your exposure. If you sell it for $1605.00, you have made profit of $5 for every ounce (unit) of gold in your contract. The same concept applies to silver trading. If you have bought silver (XAGUSD) for $28.00 and sell at $28.50, you would have made a profit of $0.50 for every ounce of silver in your contract.
🤔 WHY TRADE CFDS?
If you’re looking to invest in the price movements of instruments, rather than purchasing physical assets
To take advantage of swift fluctuations in the underlying instrument or security. This is popular with short-term investors looking to profit from intra-day and overnight movements in the market
To take advantage of leverage and spread capital across a range of different instruments rather than tie it up in a single investment (note: this approach can increase risk)
As a risk management tool to hedge exposure
Ride the GOLD waves - Pyramids are real broCheck out this Elliot Wave driven technical analysis punt from me.
Gold has a lovely growing rolling pyramid structure that is generated mostly through particular price and event patterns.
Simple LONG hold here. Buy big or go home. Hold long or mess about stepping in and out.
Easy profitable trade IMO.