Housing Market Rocket Ride to Continue? M2 Money Printer BrrringFMAC HPI Housing price index is interesting to look at versus the money supply.
Both are always increasing and fairly predictable since 2012.
The HPI tends to follow this ebb and flow moving up all the time, until this year where we haven't seen it's typical plateau.
When you check the money supply trend, M2, we can see that if we follow the trend going back to like 2012, that since January 2020 we should have seen only around a 3% max increase in the money supply, and maybe actually flat if we were at the bottom channel.
Instead we've seen 18% more increase than the 3% we anticipated, for a total of around 21% increase where we would have expected a maximum of only 3%.
Now looking at the HPI we can see that very typically it ebbs and flows in these 4-6% up cycles, lets call them 5%.
This year we haven't see that plateau and have gone straight up about 10%, only double.
The question is how correlated are these two, are we set to see another 35% straight increase in the HPI over the coming months and years???
21% increase / 3% anticipated increase in M2 = 7 times anticipated
10% increase / 5% anticipated increase in HPI = 2 times anticipated
7 / 2 = 3.5 times HPI lag versus the money supply
Will we see that 3.5 times lag play out as another 30% straight increase in the HPI?
Many other factors such as supply and demand play factors in the housing market, but this is an interesting one to watch.
HPI
SELL NZDUSD - RECONFIRMED BY 12M HIGHS? CPI PRINT EYED CLOSELYAlso as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view:
1. On the daily and NU currently Trades close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive.
- Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly likely lower from here).
-- And as you can see by the Yellow circle highlights NU has held this +/- 2SD discipline in the past so is highly likely to maintain these levels in the future.
2. Also NU trades significantly above its 60, 120, and 250 Moving Averages on 1h, 4h, 1D, 1wk - this also signals strong overbought prices, where selling has a higher probability of success.
3. NZD$ looks to have confirmed the 0.73 12 month high level as resistance - strong pivot point.
4. The strong 100k+ print beat from NFP last week imo didnt price much into NZD$ downside at the time, however given the reaction in the Fed Funds rates market, it may be pricing now as the market now implies a 25bps hike at 5.9% Sept/ Nov vs 0% prev, 22.5% Dec vs 18.5% prev - 50bps hike 1.1% vs 0% - also the probabilities of cuts all fell significantly across the curve.
5. Risks to the view continue to be a hawkish RBNZ - as we saw last week the short played well but was undermined at 0.70 when RBNZ speaker highlighted the HPI issue and inferred the cut may not happen in Aug as a result (Hence the recovery back to 0.73).
- The rate cut went from 80% to 50% on the back of these comments imo - now NZD CPI inflation and employment readings in the coming 30 days serve as the determinant of their Aug decision, a flat or miss CPI print will likely mean the RBNZ will cut 25bps (CPI is the no.1 target), so beyond the 0.73 level resistance we look for certain confirmation in the CPI reading, though it will be difficult to know what the market is thinking/ to get ahead of the market in the lead up, where the short was a giveaway before the RBNZ's new comments were on the table.
- Also on this point it is worth noting that given many of the worlds CBs have shifted to a dovish tone in light of the brexit vote (e.g. RBA BOE BOJ FOMC) this indirectly puts pressure on RBNZ to cut as Kiwi/ NZD will continue to appreciate causing disinflationairy pressures/ brakes to continue on the nzd economy, thus we also carry positive upside given the worlds policy positioning at the moment.
Trading Strategy
1. Sell @0.726 TP 0.702 SL 0.732 - More aggressive shorts may be added if confidence in a cut is higher - a cut will send NU down to 0.67 at least for example.
*Be sure to check the attached post "SELL NZDUSD @0.73 - TP 700PIPS: BREXIT, RBNZ, FED & USDJPY HEDGE" for NZDUSD short fundamentals*
