USDTUAH, Ukrainian HryvnaThe Ukrainian Hryvnia has traded in a range around $40 for the last 3 month.
It is expected the Hryvnia will retest support of the range at $38.88.
Afterwards there should be a breakout of the range in either direction, but the trend is upward and at the moment and a breakout in the upward direction is expected.
Hryvnia
USDUAH Ukrainian Hryvnia strengthening against the dollarWorldwide currencies are strengthening against the dollar as the dollar slumps. But briefly USDUAH will rise as dollar strengthen. Also there is the cyclical strengthening of the Hryvnia during spring and summer due to possible increase in export and migrant workers sending money back to the country.
Targets are 26 and 25 USDUAH at the end of summer and end of year respectively.
USDUAH - Lets fly to Ukraine !Long term analysis on US dollar - Ukrainian hryvnia currency pier - now trading at 24.973. Fundamentaly US dollar is weak, but most of major currencies are decreasing do to Coronavirus Crisis, so there is kind of a balance on Foreign exchange market. So the pattern Head and Shoulders looks perfect, which is a signal to buy USD against AUH, but we need to follow fundamentals, this pattern may work during next 2 months.
USDUAH Ukranian Hryvnia to 26.7Hryvnia is forming an inverse head and shoulders and is heading to the neckline at 25, where there is a lot of resistance. But a break above 25 will send the price to the inverse H&S target at 26.7. This will be around October which will be reasonable because the Hryvnia historically weakens in winter.
Price is above the cloud for the first time since 2018, which is a significant change in trend.
USD UAH short analysisThe National Bank of Ukraine lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 17 percent on July 18th of 2019, surprising markets who expected a 25bps reduction. It was the second rate cut this year, bringing borrowing costs to its lowest since June of 2018 and in line with reaching inflation target of 5%. Now price is 25.40 against USD. pattern wedge, which forecasts next downtrend of Hryvna
USDUAH | Added to WatchlistUkraine's Hryvnia looks poised for a reversal to the downside on the weekly and lower timeframes against the dollar. There could be a 5-8% trade in here.
1) RSI is currently indicating a trend change.
2) Price action is currently indicating a trend change
3) Volume profile is quite high which could indicate traders are soaking up USD by trading in their UAH as the latter appreciated by nearly 7% in the last 12 months.
PS. Ukraine had an election in April that resulted in regime change (old banking elites are recapturing the government). The country has the highest NPL in the world and a very precarious situation is stirring in the Ukrainian banking system involving the largest bank by assets, Privatbank which was nationalized in 2017. This may result in NPL issues resurfacing with changes in the banking system, the restitution of Privatbank to former owners, or just some kind of accounting rule or bank reserve requirement changing the outlook for the Hryvnia. Sovereign credit issues may also pop up involving the IMF, so this pair could get very interesting to trade.
JPYUAH @ daily @ only 5 pairs (of 741) performed higher lastweekThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
Performance in percent while this periods (1482 Cross-Rates)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
UAHRUB @ with 10,66% 2nd biggest moves (of 1482 pairs) in dec`16Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
39 Currencies (12th Month Statistics) @ drive.google.com
Best regards
Aaron