Hang Seng bulls eye retest of 18kWe'll admit that the Hang Seng does not have the most bullish of structures among APAC indices, but it continues to defy bears with a break of key support. And if sentiment for global indices picks up as we suspect, it could pave the way for another cheeky long for Hang Seng bulls.
The index has seen three failed attempts to break beneath 17500 since late June. Sure, we saw one daily close below it, but the move was mostly reversed on Monday. A bullish divergence is also forming on the daily RSI (2), hence the bias for another crack at 18k minimum - a break above which brings the June and July highs around 18,400 into focus.
Yet as the 4-hour chart shows prices paused at the weekly pivot point with RSI (2) overbought, we'd prefer to wait to see if prices retrace within Monday's range before seeking longs. This could help improve the reward to risk ratio for bulls whilst prices hold above last week's low, with 18,000 and 18,400 in focus for upside targets.
HS1!
HSI1! 2021 Sep 27 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Sep 27 Week
Rejection at about 24587, the 50% of the Feb 2016 - Jan 2018 uptrend provided short opportunity, besides rejection at previous H3 UHV bar high 24718.
Weekly: Down bar closing off low, a little demand, but no signs of strength. Weakness expected to continue.
Daily: Weakness. The last 2nd and 3rd bar appeared as bearish reversal, last bar is down bar closing at low.
H3: The most recent UHV bar A, buying effort but spread was narrow and market fell informed us of weakness.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
Buyers to move. Is the triangle almost complete?For the flows here, buyers are clearly in control and have been over multiple decades - although since 2016 we have been inside a compression range which looks set to blow later in 2022. Strong support comes into play at 23,500 which should be enough to cap the outflows before continuation in a bull market towards a measure 40,000 breakout target.
↳ To the downside sellers are itching to test 23,500 and it looks within reach. It is dangerous to step in till we complete the moves, because the eye of the law is on it.
↳ After 23,500 comes the slingshot attempt towards 40,000, which will likely be a Q222 story, as will also reinstate the secular bull market and allow gains in confidence to play an important part in capital migration from West to East.
↳ To sum up, there is the following zig zag in play; 25,000 (current levels) -> 23,500 (strong support) -> 40,000 (strong resistance)
Of course on the fundamental side, the rocking of the cradle from the nanny state continues and we are entering into the final chapters of the handover. Naturally when choosing a map in equities you should take into account its elasticity with the currency and the threats it can deliver, highly recommend tracking the Chinese Yuan over the coming weeks and months for any signs of distress as we enter into strong support levels.
HSI1! 2021 Apr 19 Week (Intraday)
HSI1! 2021 Apr 19 Week (Intraday)
Noticed that price weren't able to make its way past the midpoint of the channel.
Is the market weakening?
The support and resistance zone remains. No change to trade levels.
1) Use the range of previous ultra high volume bar as a guide for a immediate support/resistance.
Clue:
Ultra high volume, wide spread down bar is a sign of strength, WAIT for long opportunity in lower TF.
Ultra high volume, wide spread up bar is a sign of weakness, WAIT for long opportunity in LTF.
HS1! 2021 Jan 11 Week
HS1!
HSI1! 2021 Jan 11 Week
Red/Green zones are preferred entry area.
Intermediate 27753 resistance was broken through and has now become intermediate support.
Though B sees a rejection, the volume isnt' as high as I'd like to see.
The bar after it is a down bar on low volume.
Notice also the price rotation zone marked out by the grey box.
Let's see if market is buidling up for higher prices or if this is topping over.
Resistant3 = 28619 - 28755
Resistant2 = 28318 - 28379
Resistant1 = 27958 - 28012
Intermediate support = 27780 - 27806
Support1 = 27645 - 27690
Support2 = 27400 - 27461
Support3 = 26854 - 26947
HS1! 2020 Dec 14 Week HKEX:HSI1!
HS1! 2020 Dec 14 Week
Price remained in a range for the past week
Not much change to S/R zones
Being in the year end holiday mood, take it easy on trading or take a break
Scenario - Short
Short from Resistant 1
Short from Immediate Resistant
Target 1 = 50% of range to Support1
Target 2 = Support1
Extended target = Support2
Support 2 = critical support
Scenario - Long
Long at support zone
Target 1 = 50% of range
Target 2 = Next zone
HS1! 2020 Nov 30 Week PlanningHS1!
Bar 1
Price tried to break out of the resistance zone before meeting rejection to higher prices, closing in the lower region of the bar.
The breakout is not convincing
Bar 2
Another breakout attempt, but made a lower high than bar 1.
There is some demand as price close slightly above middle of the bar.
Reason for caution is that although the top of the resistance at 26876 is beginning to act like support, we are still in the supply area of Bar 1.
And the diminishing volume on the breakout attempts tell us that bullish strength is not really present.
Scenario planning:
1) 26876 resistance turned support and strong buy volume comes in. Will it attempt to close the gap from February 2020?
2) Mark up on low volume continues before price reversal
3) Price reversals back into resistance zone, and subsequently goes lower back into the rotation range
Trade with care for 30 Nov week.
Hang Seng WeaknessI kinda blew the call Friday afternoon because I wasn't paying attention to China, and they pumped the crap out of futures Sunday. Pumped ES1 so much that when the Euros sold it, MDI went oversold but the index future was still up 9 pts at open.
Lesson learned.
Anyways, I bought MCHI calls today, and when I noticed this was overbought, I flipped them in the afternoon. Glad I did.