Hang Seng HSI
The worst is over for Chinese stocks BABAIf you are a long term investor I hope you used the panic to top up your holdings. If you are a momentum trader you still have the opportunity to ride the bounce or accumulate your position a bit later. Possible scenario for BABA but all names have something similar is as follows.
I treat that panic as an exhaustion and behavioural pattern confirms that so I consider the worst is over.
Personally, I played that dangerously catching falling knives and loosing hairs so my words bring some sort of hope, but from technical perspective the situation is as follows.
Another option is to treat the current leg up as a retest of the previous support but usually when you have seen that sort of panic and all the papers writing the same thing - it is just over.
I expect some turbulence at this resistance since bears will try to play down the move but final move is gonna be UP.
The first arrow is my initial momentum play. I expect to see some kind see-saw after the first leg and the second arrow reflects my further expectations.
The worst is over for Chinese names BIDUIf you are a long term investor I hope you used the panic to top up your holdings. If you are a momentum trader you still have the opportunity to ride the bounce or accumulate your position a bit later. Possible scenario for BIDU but all names have something similar is as follows.
I treat that panic as an exhaustion and behavioural pattern confirms that so I consider the worst is over.
Personally, I played that dangerously catching falling knives and loosing hairs so my words bring some sort of hope, but from technical perspective the situation is as follows.
Another option is to treat the current leg up as a retest of the previous support but usually when you have seen that sort of panic and all the papers writing the same thing - it is just over.
I expect some turbulence at this resistance since bears will try to play down the move but final move is gonna be UP.
This week maybe the week of HSI retracement? Now the trend of HSI seems like a shortly retracement, and there is two possible trend in future : End the retracement at this weekend , or continue until the end of August.
We all know that the the worldwide retracement is nearly happen, and the situation of HSI is probably happening early before the worldwide retracement. Therefore, we may be patient about the retracement of HSI. Not a professional, Not a good English speaker, just a man publishs his idea, good luck everyone
HSI1! 2021 Aug 16 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Aug 16 Week
Gentle ascend, intermediate trend channel established.
High probability short trade from the upthrust.
Tested Historic UHV High from 27 Jul
Weekly: Up bar close above middle
(some strength, but supply still present)
Daily: Strength coming in
H4: Supply still present and Lower High
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject):
- 26900
- 26584
Strategy for Long (Test and Support):
- 25815
- 25560
- 24743 - 24930
- 26340 (ultimate confirmation if there is acceptance
at this price followed by strong bullish volume)
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
Top China Internet-Tech stocks (most on Hang Seng Tech Index)Top China Internet-Tech stocks (most are on the Hang Seng Tech Index, some are still on the Nasdaq - all on separate scales) vs Hang Seng Index (HSI), CSI 300 index , NASDAQ (IXIC index):
- Tencent 0700
- Meituan 3090
- JD .com Nasdaq JD
- Pinduoduo Nasdaq PDD
- Baidu Nasdaq BIDU
- Netease 9999
- Kuaishou 1024
- Bilbili Nasdaq BILI
- Alibaba 9988
Top China Internet-Tech stocks (most r on Hang Seng Tech Index)Top China Internet-Tech stocks (most are on the Hang Seng Tech Index, some are still on the Nasdaq) vs Hang Seng Index (HSI), CSI 300 index, NASDAQ (IXIC index):
- Tencent 0700
- Meituan 3090
- JD.com Nasdaq JD
- Pinduoduo Nasdaq PDD
- Baidu Nasdaq BIDU
- Netease 9999
- Kuaishou 1024
- Bilbili Nasdaq BILI
2021 Aug 02 Week
OANDA:HK33HKD
2021 Aug 02 Week
Last week a historically UHV down bar appeared. Strength always appears on UHV ultra wide spread DOWN bar.
Weekly: Market has rolled over with a wide spread down bar closing in middle (UHV) = Indecision.
Price bounced off Monthly channel demand line.
Daily: Shakeout + Reversal = Strength. Market was resisted at 26340 temporarily.
Given the UHV, there should still be supply to clear.
H4: Bar A UHV ultra wide spread bar closing off low = strength. Automatic reversal after climatic Bar A
has reasonably good bullish volume. Test of the lower region of bar A is to be expected.
Bar B test of low has off the low and level with bar A, some demand is present.
Strategy:
(1) Red/Green zones = preferred entry
(2) Dotted Red/Green is to indicate late entry, but risk will be higher since SL is further away
Remember to follow and like if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
Stocks - What Next?Idea for indices:
- As expected, Robinhood IPO was the trigger for global sell-off (other factors involved obviously, but I have been posting about everything macro related in other posts).
- China continuing to lead down.
- Look how the deflationary wave hits HSI > Nikkei > EU > US. Dome tops forming everywhere.
- ECB actually has greater QE than US, so EU index performance is a critical tell for deflationary forces vs. QE.
- Watch China Tech ETFs to lead US indices down. Managers will need to also liquidate US positions as their portfolio % exposure becomes overweight.
I've been enjoying watching Nikkei lately - it just broke a critical support and 200 DMA (6m low), officially a bear market if it consolidates losses. However, it is still holding 50 WMA and 200 DMA in real performance... waiting for US markets for confirmation.
Bearish bias here, turning point is due. Aug 2 debt limit will be in focus. Early August is my trigger for reversal confirmation. If it holds, we can back off and try again later, but rugpull is definitely due.
Already short US indices (long vol).
Nikkei real performance (relative to currency):
Here is what I think will happen to Nikkei next:
GLHF
- DPT
Hang Seng Index Futures at Key Inflection Point, Top to Resume?After tumbling recently, Hang Seng Futures are back to retesting a former trendline from 2020 as new resistance.
This is also around the often pivotal 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 26078.
The near-term 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) still offer a downside bias, potentially acting as key resistance in the event prices materially push higher.
Otherwise, downtrend resumption entails clearing key support, which seems to be the 78.6% level at 24708, as the index flirts with bear market territory.
HSI1!
HSI (Hong Kong Index) Could provide a short opportunity HSI (Hong Kong Index) Could provide a short opportunity after reaching marked resistance area. However, price have been dropping massively so this up move could end up in a change of trend since price managed to reach weekly demand areas, however, higher time frame trend still remain short. Keep an eye on it and wait for confirmation to be given around the selected area.
Pacific Basin 2343:HK Possible entry opportunityUptrending since January with strong support at the 20 EMA.
The most recent dip is collateral damage arising from the China tech crackdown, which has seen the tide lower across the HSI. This represents an opportunity.
Additionally, huge supply and demand factors in the global shipping industry at play right now.
I expect a bounce off 2.82 if not before that. Speculative target 50% exit at 3.35 (~7 days). Laughing all the way to 3.50 (~15 days).
Do your own research.